#5-2 THE MOST ACCURATE GOLD FORECAST IN THE WORLD for FX_IDC:XAUUSD by Binary_Forecasting_Service

#5-2 THE MOST ACCURATE GOLD FORECAST IN THE WORLD

SUMMARY - This is the 11/12/23, 15-min bar and 84-hour generic, CONTINUOUS EVOLVING FORECAST for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker, with detailing for first 40 hours. The workup in #5-1 (link is below) has produced this binary through early hours of this Thursday. If you zoom out the chart, you can see the rest of the bull routes. I do not think we will need it UNLESS price gets above the blue outline.

WARNING - As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted the following 12-16 hours to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. As of late, forecasts are once/twice per day to be continuously relevant. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully and I do not respond in time, SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively.

HOW TO USE - Blues are strong bear routes. Oranges are strong bull routes. The darker the color, the more likely price action will take that path. The outlines running along with hi-lights are LIMITS OF STRONG FAVORABILITY and work great for stops. Above blue outline, bulls are 8:2 or better. Under orange outline, bears are 9:1 or better.

DETAILS - Links for most recent and relevant posts are below for background and how we got here. I recommend that you replay them (especially if you are new to us) occasionally as frame of reference, but most importantly, as evidence that these forecasts help you cash day in and day out. Ask my readers.

IF MY FORECASTS HELP YOU MAKE REAL MONEY - Want more posts, more accuracy, and around the clock updates? Help me out by spreading the word to people you know PERSONALLY. Word of mouth is the best way you can help me make this a thing. The more demand I have for this, the more posts on more tickers I will make. The current rates of followers/readership is really not worth it for me to keep going, but I don't know why I keep trying. If you are that loner type that ignore friends, well then I guess hit the boost/like button.

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11:51 AM ET, IF I HAVE TIME...
a) will post 4-min bar chart for strategy in next 16 hours
b) I am busy AF though, so don't wait for it

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5:45 PM ET, NO TIME YET. THIS IS JUST MY 800-DAY OUT LOOK.

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a) for chart above:
b) this is the penalty for bulls failing this breakout setup
c) so forr March 08, 2024:
d) if bulls move up, it's 2380 2550, 2670, 2740 (bc of the regression twists
e) if bears move, it's 1170
f) I wonder if the math is wrong, bc it's SOOO STUPID
g) but Im putting up so we can refer to it later

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11/12, 5:50 PM ET, this goes w/o saying, but I obvious think bears win tonight
a) I am totally convinced
b) but that's just theory
c) I am easily swayed
d) all bulls have to do is GET ABOVE THAT BLUE outline in chart at top

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6:06 PM ET 1941.XX
1) bulls have a short window to make 1945 1946
2) they need to do it soon...

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6:28 PM ET HERE IS WHAT I SEE NOW:

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a) in chart at top, if price stays in that channel w/ bold black support line
b) the top should about 1945.5 around 11 PM ET
c) SHORT IT as soon as it breaks that channel
d) first stop something tight like 1946.
e) the rest of the way to 1920, arc as trail stop

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6:41 PM ET, I saw that broke as soon as I posted it so...

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a) in chart above, old bold is gone..
b) new bold line is saying you not getting past it tonight
c) this is a bad sign for bulls already
d) bc that spike to 1928? was not in the cards AT ALL

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e) I guessed w/ the new light above
f) but it checked out.. not terrible
h) so for the next 7-8 hours that is base case until something changes

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7:04 PM, no , this is better:

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7:06 PM ET bulls best hope for this now is

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7:18 PM ET, the orange line broke so back to these two:

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a) 7:24 PM, I have to drive a little bit
b) so bulls need to got 1945 BUT HOLD 1942 through 1 AM to get a good setup or a move up

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c) bears want to go back to this curve:

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d) it's a bit higher than the curve before
e) 7:34 PM ET, if neither of those two things happen I will comment next at 11 PM
f) it's not moving a lot right now some I'm going to Home Depot to get some thing fixed

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g) MOST IMPORTANT 2 LINES TO THURSDAY AM:

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8:53 PM ET, HUGE TYPO IN "HOW TO USE" AT TOP:
1) BLUES ARE BULLS
2) ORANGES BEARS
3) even it's obvious, the directions had them reversed
4) you just never know with newbies

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9:28 PM ET DELAY AND DELAY
a) this move down t keeps getting back and back
b) but is still is VERY FAVORED vs a move up
c) two things are happening
d) it pushes the move later but is also moving deeper
e) what the delay is saying, is A KISS OF DEATH at NY open, maybe a strong one
f) but that AFTER the move down to what was 1923, then 20, now 18 or 16

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10:05 PM ET SO HERE'S WHAT I MEANT:

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a) 3 hi-lights above, lightest is original one
b) then faded is the one I moved over
c) the dark one is the new one
d) it is saying it will go to 1915-1916

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e) BUT THEN???
f) well I don't know... since the front end is different ..
g) the tail end MUST look different ... ..
h) if it hits that, just call it a night

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i) for what it's worth though it should beat the ORIGINAL CURVE DOWN!!
j) not terrible ha?

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10:15 OMG OMG ... IT'S GUNNING FOR 1895!!!

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k) first here's these two:

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b) the two bold ones are two charts up from here

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c) so then:

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d) so odds of this was like ZERO at the beginning of then night
e) it then went 1:19, 2:18, 3:17 and just made 4:16, that's really just 20%
f) but it's got the wave lined up for it!!

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g) here do this:

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h) odds are still low for 1895.. but it has SUPER STRONG MOMENTUM WHEN WAVES LINE UP!!
i) but usually it hits the low AFTER the second curve, so just add a third one like this:

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j) in chart above that's the third line

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k) 10:40 PM ET, replay chart at top, see how the blue route is STILL ON RIGHT NOW?
l) this move will SHUT THE DOOR AND KILL THE BULL COMEBACK
m) we were at a similar juncture for bulls a few days ago remember?
n) when it bounced to 1965 and STALLED AT 1958.5 that night
o) I said bulls had 3 chances and couldn't pull it out
b) bears look like 1916 at least

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q) a bit of hesitation now...
r) I'll be back, gotta fix some chairs

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s) 10:54 PM, not coming quick BUT WE ARE ON FOR 1895 next 8 hours or so

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t) the question now is HOW MUCH ZIG ZAG are we talking about

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u) 11:14 PM ET, be patient... we're going down
v) I just gotta find what the route needs to look like

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w) it's going to be the annoying way, all the way until morning

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12:03 AM ET... Replay chart atop showing it's trying to follow blue, at 1936.xx.
a) I'm looking into this
b) I think it should fail and move down

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c) if they are going to do it, they have 60-90 minutes to make this work
d) if you need it 1938.5 stop for bears
e) I don't see it
f) I see strong reversal down and down and down

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11:52 AM ET .. 1939.XX replay shows price above orange outline...
a) at the top I wrote:
>> The outlines running along with hi-lights are LIMITS OF STRONG FAVORABILITY and work great for stops.
>> Above blue outline, bulls are 8:2 or better. Under orange outline, bears are 9:1 or better.
b) the outlines run along with hi-lights and serve as reversal warning
c) that's why I said stop at 1938.5
d) I'm going to sit out this one for a little bit

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2:10 AM ET I am short again. I think I waited long enough.
a) Im really tired tonight so I''m going to bed early
b) I have a stop for 1941 and alarm for 5 am

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8:15 AM, the middle again.
a) indecision that favors bulls over the short term
b) otherwise, need new maps

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c) this has happened a couple of times the last 60 days
d) whenever it does we should know early
e) for this post it would have been a bit after 4 AM, so 4 hours ago

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f) to be absolutely clear, favoring bulls over the short term IS ONLY IN THEORY
g) there's NO TRADE UNTIL I HAVE A MAP

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8:47 AM ET, FOR FUTURE REFERENCE, HERE'S WHEN THE FORECAST IS DEAD:

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a) so in chart above:
b) first attempt was orange
c) second attempt was blue
d) MY MAPS ARE SUPER SENSITIVE
e) in this case there are NO MORE "DARK" colors
f) if I was up, I would call it dead right here:

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g) so 2:48 AM, after the blue run "GAVE UP THE SECOND TIME"
h) at the top, in the WARNING, this would be when you "SCRAP THE FORECAST" AND TRADE DEFENSIVELY"

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i) as of 8:53 AM, there's NOTHING to do and ZERO sign of decision soon

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9:06 PM ET looking like a move to 1926 now

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a) in chart above if BOLD LINE holds, obviously would go down before noon ET

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b) looking like 1920 before noon

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c) stop for shorts should be 1937.25
d) if hit just wait it out and pick a better spot

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10:20 AM ET 1936.62... bears still favored:

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a) orange is base case AS LONG AS ORANGE CURVE HOLDS
b) hi-light is most likely path down
c) all other orange dotted lines are less likely from a 2-min bar view
d) from 15-min they're all about the same

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10:30 The two strong routes are mirror images on a slant:

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a) bulls are trying are HARD to take blue path
b) the longer they STAY DEAD AT 1935-1937
c) the likelier blue route becomse
d) right now oranges still very strong favorites

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e) 11:10 AM ET bulls have a shot STRAIGHT AT 1965
f) but no stalling!!

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g) it has to be quick if it's going to happen ... 1955 must get hit by 1:30 PM ET

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h) watch 1947 in case they stall, other wise, it's STRAIGHT UP TO 1955
i) but the question is can they get 1965??,

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j) this depends on HOW FAST THEY GET TO 1955
l) right now it's 11:29 AM ET and stalling a bit at 1943...
m) if they get to 1955 by 12:45 PM ET, then they are FAVORED FOR 1965 BEFORE 4 PM ET

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n) I can't give you any charts bc I'm trading live
l) I went heavily long so I have to watch my money

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n) 11:37, 1945.xx I can see 1965 now...
o) the question IS CAN WE DO 1975 BEFORE NY CLOSES
p) why?
q) because
r) if bulls intend to kill ANY bear comeback
s) they NEED 1975 for the room ahead of a sell off

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t) 11:47 PM ET THEY SHOULD GET TO 1955 BY 12:15 PM ET

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u) no .. 12:25 ...any thing slower than 12:35 AND SUSPICIOUS AF
v) why? bc HIGH VOL WORKS BOTH WAYS

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w) remember CANNOT STALL AT 1947... GOTTA SHOOT RIGHT THROUGH IT!!

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X) comon comon 1946.xx right through, DONT' STALL!!

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y) I put in " taking way too freaking (^^) slow and got moderated
z) so fixed that ...

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12:25 PM ET.. getting late 1948.xx HAVE TO HIT 55 on this line or we have to be very careful here:

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12:31 TIGHTEN UP STOPS!
1) you can always get back in
2) stick to to your stops

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3) 12: 43 PM ET 1946.XX moving for 1955 now..
4) but that now... we don't know we can get 65...

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5) sigh... they better close like this or it's going got get ugly... FOR US

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a) the whole point of my price mapping is to tell us when we get a huge move...
b) I hate ugly sideways and stair casing price action
c) because I can't get the return for the work I put in, they may get very ugly

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d) 1:30 pm ET... have to run
e) that line just broke
f) bull still have the upper hand here, I just don't know for how long what that should look like
g) bc ALL the intermediate trends are criss crossing so.... argh... its super annoying to map

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h) last note, replay chart at top for what I mean by ugly... it's the middle
i) have a really hard time doing sideways market bc my work is based on trend...
j) when there's no trend... UGLY X10

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2:08 PM ET ... going to go VERTICAL SOON... don't know exactly how long
a) I'm pretty sure we hit 55
b) still wondering about 65
c) we should know soon

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2:31 PM ET 1946.XX needs to go before the setup expires
a) it's complete now
b) no reason no move to 1955
c) setups don't last forever...

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3:12 PM ET 1945.19 so sick...
a) no clarity...
b) reversal down to 1925 still can't be eliminated
c) to make any call for CPI tomorow

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3:40 PM... at least have the decency to close at the high above the trend line???
a) it's 1946.xx
b) I'll take 49.xx above trend line so I can at least eliminate 1925 over night...
c) we will see

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d.)this is the one I want to eliminate:

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11/13/23 PM 10:34 PM ET.. I'm tired of waiting for small beans.
1) doing this sucks w/o real vol, other wise what are you trading for?
2) there's giant move down from 01/10-03/08 that can only be stopped by a giant move up
3) I'm working on that
4) other-wise I don't have anything right now

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11/14 /23 9:47 PM ET CPI REACTION COMMENTS
a) first this is what happened:

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b) classic went bull, bear, then swing back to bull
c) so replay chart at top
d) bulls made it into the blue hi-lights and now above blue curve for the second time
e) but they are LATE FOR THE LAST BREAKOUT SET UP for the gold bull thesis as a whole
f) what does that mean??
g) if they bulls are legit, gotta go 1995 TODAY IN ORDER TO DO 2040 tomorrow

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h) 20:11 AM ET... so meet BUT SHOULD EXCEED blue-hilights

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i) this for technical people:

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1) in chart above are the regression wave leads with breakdown for gray wave only
2) to the left see how BLACK, BLUE, RED, AND GRAY BEHAVE?
3) they are about REPEAT OR EXCEED THAT CYCLE
4) so I copied the previous rally and moved it over as the LIGHT BLUE path
5) the medium blue is standard for that those set of waves in this fractal
6) that is to say they are "the same size in value"
7) THE DARK BLUE IS WHAT IS SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN BC:

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8) that's with all the waves back on
9) it is repeating that structure
10 while the 96-DAY wave CROSSES OVER the 192-DAY WAVE
11) that means 2200 IN DECEMBER, check down to 2080
12) then 2380 /2440 in FEBRUARY
13) 2550 IF LOW, 2660 IF MEDIUM, 2740 IF HIGH
14) that is THE BULL THESIS

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15) that means? if it's GOING TO PLAY LIKE IT SAY IT WILL...
16) that's THE ONLY WAY it's going to go

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17) now bear thesis?

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18) for the sake of time, I'll avoid the technicals:

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19) and this is just February
20) as good as bulls can have it.. which is 800 up from 1940
21) bears can move to 1140
22) AND YES I PROVED THE MATH last night
23) this the decision the market will make in the next 60 hours or rest of Thursday
24) its either 2040 (maybe 2055) or zig zag AND COLLAPSE next week

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25) I'm really tired of posting right now
26) but that's what you can expect
27) the bull route for the chart IS COMPLETELY VALID AS LONG AS PRICE HOLDS THE THE BLUE OUTLINE

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28) ONE ASTERISK... because of how low the 12 day wave is
29) it may take Friday to get above 2000

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11:35 AM ET
30) I got the 85/15 signal it won't reverse
31) those odds only climb from here to afternoon as long 65 area holds

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12:20 PM ET if you replay chart at top, zoom out for the bull picture.
a) it's at the blue out line again
b) the reaction should be this:

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c) in ALMOST all extrapolations now
d) we get to 2040-2055 some where beween WED 10 PM ET to FRIDAY 10 AM ET
e) most of those coming by THURSDAY 10 PM ET

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f) in chart above, I kept wave extensions the same color as the chart before with wave lengths
g) so for this chart the WAVE EXTENSIONS ARE:
h) BLUE 12 DAYS, BLACK 6 DAYS, DARK RED 3 DAYS, AND DARK NAVY 1.5 DAY

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i) I'm going to take a long break
j) there's 2 things to watch for
k) first reaction to 1994-1996 SHOULD BE ZIG ZAG SELL OFF TO 1975
l) very long and very zig zag all the way to PPI
m) the firs reaction to 2005-2015 SHOULD BE A TRIANGLE...
n) after that all the way up, 2040-2055, at least 15% chance even higher

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o) there's no reason this goes to '55 again, THAT WOULD BE SUSPICIOUS AF

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p) finally here is from 2-min bar, but take with some salt
q) I mean it's 2 min bar, it changes all the time

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r) PERSONALLY...
s) I expect the high before 8 AM ET THURSDAY
t) that's 44 hours out

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u) here's this so I check out until Thursday:

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v) that's what I meant by triangle after PPI's spike up
w) boxes:
1) long one is bear reversal w/ odds roughly 3$
2) 2 small boxes are highs and lows of next rally
3) medium box upper right IS WHERE THE HIGH SHOULD LAND
4) big box is delayed high
5) oval is just my regression tracking for the high, if it moves, high moves

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6) typo on 1) ...odds roughly 3%, but now 4%

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7) odds of this fractal increasing
8) seem like the result will in-between
9) I'll post this chart every few hours for comparison

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7:00 PM ET, THIS POST HAS ENDED. So I don't have to post every few hours. here is #5-3:

#5-3 THE MOST ACCURATE GOLD FORECAST IN THE WORLD

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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