Buy Gold 14 month bullish channel back to long-term resistance

Oct 15, 2016

Given the resilience XAUUSD has shown around the $1250 level it seems that it may have reached a short-term bottom that also matches up nicely to the bullish channel shown here.

This suggests to me a retest of the long-term resistance trendline slightly above the $1300 level in the coming month. Uncertainty from the US elections should be supportive of this.

Furthermore, this is setting up for another wedge scenario in late 2016 to early 2017.

(Arrows indicate direction, not dates)

A clear break below this channel would invalidate this scenario. Target $1300.

Oct 18, 2016

Note

Oct 18, 2016

Note

We've just seen a significant break from the downtrend that indicates the current move may be something other than the previous sideways action. A break above $1264 will give more confidence.

Oct 18, 2016

Trade active

Oct 18, 2016

Note

The price is holding above the previous downtrend and a retest has held, So far so good. Still looking for a break above 1265.

Oct 19, 2016

Trade active

Oct 19, 2016

Note

We just had the break above 1266 with a very nice spike. We're still in the channel but this is a very bullish sign.

Oct 19, 2016

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And after saying that, we just completely stepped through the channel. I looks like (fingers crossed) we've left the sideways range behind us now.

Oct 21, 2016

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We just had another backtest of the previous resistance trend in pink. The price still hasn't broken the upper orange resistance line so it's now possible this is forming a falling wedge pattern.

Oct 22, 2016

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It does seem that a falling wedge is presenting itself. We may get additional rotation or it may break out on the next attempt but this is a bullish pattern and the odds favour a break to the upside 70/30.

Oct 24, 2016

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Looks like we've already made the break to the upside, now we just need a successful retest and then we should hopefully continue the journey onwards and upwards.

Oct 24, 2016

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Or this thing may just keep going

Oct 25, 2016

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Yesterday's break came back down as fast as it went up. It seems we're about to get another go, break in progress.

Oct 26, 2016

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The price has exceeded 1276 which puts me just over half way towards my target. The next level of interest I'm watching is a break of
38.2% Retracement from recent low - 1,281.26

Oct 29, 2016

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What a nice finish to the week. I got my $1281.26 interim target that I had been waiting for. And now we've closed above 1275.

Shall we try for 1293.13 next week?

Oct 31, 2016

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We've already had one big election surprise that rocked the market on Friday. I believe there is more in store before election day.

Above 1275 things are looking quite positive for that run back to 1300. Looking at the slope of the support in the chart above, it maybe in the latter part of the week we see a search for 1290.

Nov 2, 2016

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We've hit 1,293.13, where the price is right now. And it's only Wednesday.

We're seeing a bit of a short squeeze so the 1300 target may not be too far away now.

Nov 2, 2016

Trade closed: target reached

Target $1300 reached. I will now follow this back to the trendline, however I set 1300 as the target so this trade is now closed.

Thanks for following, it's been fun.

Nov 9, 2016

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Hello 2011 trendline. Thanks to Trump and again to everyone who followed this trade.

Nov 11, 2016

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Going back to the original chart I have adjusted the arrows to match the actual timeline that took place. The really interesting thing has been the speed of this move.