The latest gold trend analysis on January 29

Jan 29

In the European market on Wednesday (January 29), the price of gold came under slight pressure and failed to continue the upward trend of the previous day. However, the downside space for gold prices seems to be limited to a certain extent, and the US Treasury yields fell again, which may provide support for gold.

In addition, concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans may also limit the decline in gold prices. Trump's tariff policy may cause certain uncertainty in global trade and the economy. This uncertainty often prompts the market to seek safe-haven assets such as gold, thereby providing certain support for gold prices.

At present, the market is cautious about the Fed's interest rate hike path. The market seems unwilling to make aggressive bets, but chooses to wait and see, waiting for more guidance on the Fed's monetary policy. Therefore, the focus will be on the results of the upcoming Fed monetary policy meeting. This important Fed decision will have an important impact on the short-term trend of the US dollar and provide a certain impetus to commodity markets such as gold, which may become an important guide for the next trend of gold prices.

Technical interpretation:

From a technical perspective, gold prices recently broke through the $2720-2725 level, which was once a resistance range for prices and now becomes a support level. If gold prices break through the $2772-2773 area, this will further confirm the upward momentum of gold prices and may push gold to break through the $2786 area (this is the highest point since October 2024 and close to the historical high, close to the $2790 area). If prices can further break through $2800, it may trigger new upward momentum and pave the way for gold prices to continue the upward trend of the past month or so.

However, if gold prices fall below the short-term support range of $2755-2753, it may attract some buying, but the decline may be limited, at least stopping near this week's low (around the $2730 area). If the price of gold falls below the resistance-turned-support area of ​​$2725-2720, it may lead to further downside, pushing the price down to the $2707-2705 area, and may continue to fall to the $2684 area.

Future Outlook

The trend of gold prices will be affected by multiple factors. First, the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will be key. If the Federal Reserve continues to maintain an accommodative policy, it may further depress the US dollar and support the rise in gold prices. Especially in the context of heightened global economic uncertainty, gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset will gradually increase. In addition, Trump's tariff policy may also provide support for gold.

Technically, if gold breaks through the $2772-2773 area, it may further push gold to higher price levels, especially after breaking through $2800, it may trigger new upward momentum and continue the recent upward trend. However, if the price falls below key support levels (such as the $2725-2720 range), there may be some adjustments, and the price may fall back to around $2700.

Gold was still in line with expectations yesterday. We did not look at a reversal, but treated it as an adjustment. Only when the daily line is continuously negative and falls below the upward trend line can it be a turning point. Yesterday's operation was relatively strong, and finally closed with a bald positive line. Today, we continue to treat it as a decline and then long. The daily support moved up to 2740. If it fluctuates, we will rely on this position to do more. In the 4H cycle, the rise broke through the middle track, but there is no sign of opening. Therefore, it is treated as a fluctuating and long idea during the day. In the 1H cycle, the support is around 2751. In terms of intraday operations, it falls back and relies on support to go long, and then look at 2765 and 2772!

Today's short-term operation suggestions from the professional and senior gold analyst team:
Gold falls back to 2750 and goes long, stop loss 2742, target 2765, 2772!

Jan 30

Trade active

Analysis of the latest gold trading strategy:

In the early Asian session on Thursday (January 30), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and traded around $2,760/ounce. After the Fed announced its interest rate decision on Wednesday, the price of gold fell to $2,744.65/ounce, but recovered most of the losses after Chairman Powell's speech, and finally closed at $2,759.73/ounce, a drop of 0.13%.

The US dollar index and the US 10-year Treasury yield rose briefly after the interest rate decision, then fell back and remained close to flat, closing at 107.95 and 4.530% respectively. Powell said he hoped to see further progress in inflation. It is worth noting that the world's largest gold ETF SPDR has recently rebounded in the past two days after its holdings fell to a six-month low, increasing by 4.02 tons to 865.34 tons on Wednesday.

Federal Reserve Policy and Market Expectations
Federal Reserve officials unanimously decided to maintain interest rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range, and did not provide a clear timetable for rate cuts. The latest policy statement deleted the wording of slowing inflation, indicating that the Fed is still watching inflation and employment data, as well as the uncertainty of Trump's policies.

The market's expectations for rate cuts have been adjusted:

The probability of a rate cut before June has dropped to 40% (previously about 50%).
The probability of a rate cut in June is 73.4%, which is still the time point that the market is most concerned about.
The expectation of a rate cut before the end of the year has dropped to 44 basis points (lower than the previous 48 basis points), and the market's confidence in two rate cuts this year has declined.
Investors are worried that Trump's tariff policy may increase inflationary pressure, thereby delaying the pace of rate cuts. Future key data include the fourth quarter GDP and initial jobless claims in the United States (released today), as well as the December PCE price index (released on Friday), which may affect the Fed's policy decisions and market trends.

After the Fed's decision yesterday, it bottomed out and rebounded. Gold rebounded after hitting the lowest level of 2745. Gold still did not break the blockade of the range. Yesterday, our professional and senior gold analyst team also accurately predicted in advance that the focus should be on 2745. You can try to go long near 2745. Today for gold, we are still paying attention to the short-term suppression of the 2765-70 line above. If this suppression is not broken, we will still treat it as a rebound short.

From the current 4-hour analysis, we focus on the short-term suppression of 2765-70 above and the short-term support of 2741-45 below. In terms of operation, we mainly follow the trend. We are cautious in chasing orders in the middle and patiently wait for key points to enter the market.

Today's professional senior gold analyst team gold operation strategy:

1. Short sell gold rebounding to 2765-2770, stop loss 2775, target 2740-2745;

Jan 31

Trade closed: target reached

Gold market analysis and operation suggestions
I. News analysis
During the U.S. market on Friday (January 31), spot gold prices fluctuated and rose at a high level, once refreshing the historical high of $2,817.13/ounce. Gold prices rose 1.25% on Thursday, closing at $2,794.24/ounce, a record high. Here are the main factors driving gold prices higher:

Hedging demand heats up:
Earlier this week, the White House said that U.S. President Trump planned to impose high tariffs on Mexico, Canada and major Asian countries. This news triggered risk aversion in the market and pushed gold prices higher.

Economic data is weak:
U.S. fourth-quarter GDP data performed poorly and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to a six-year low, further enhancing gold's appeal.

Federal Reserve policy trends:
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, in line with market expectations. Chairman Powell said he would not rush to cut interest rates again, but at the same time emphasized some warning signs in the U.S. labor market. The market is waiting for an important inflation report to find clues to the Fed's future policy path.

2. Technical Analysis
Daily Level:
Gold fluctuated in a small range in the early trading yesterday, and did not fall below 2657. It broke through and went up in the European session, and rushed to around 2798 in the evening. The daily line finally closed positive, opening a new long channel.
Both the daily and weekly lines show that the trend of breaking high continues to strengthen. Short-term operations should be based on unilateral long ideas. It is recommended to be mainly low-long during the day, but be alert to the risk of market decline.
Support level: 2785 (top and bottom conversion), 2790; 4 Hour Level:
Gold maintains a good ascending channel with 2730-2745 as the second low point, and the middle track of Bollinger Band is the short-term bull critical point.
A retracement above the middle track is regarded as a bull correction, and it is a strong correction. The high point of 2785 has been converted into a support level. If the market fluctuates and washes, it may retrace to around 2774, and it can still be long if it touches.
Upper target: After breaking through 2810, look at 2820, and short when it hits; Strong resistance: above 2820.

III. 3. Operation suggestions
The general idea: the callback is mainly long, and the rebound is supplementary.
Upper resistance: 2825-2830
Lower support: 2795-2790

Specific trading strategies:
Trading strategy 1 Long on pullbacks: Long on the first pullback to 2795, stop loss 2785, target 2805-2815.

Trading strategy 2 Short on rebounds: Short on 2825, stop loss 2832, target 2810-2795.

IV. Summary
Gold hit a record high driven by risk aversion demand and weak economic data, and the technical side shows a strong bullish trend. In terms of operation, it is recommended to mainly go long on pullbacks, while paying attention to the rebound shorting opportunities at the upper resistance level. Investors need to pay close attention to market dynamics, especially the Fed's policy clues and inflation reports, to flexibly adjust trading strategies.