Latest Gold Analysis and Trading Strategies:

Nov 11

📊 Gold Fundamental Landscape
1. Policy and Liquidity Dynamics:

The U.S. government shutdown is nearing its end, with short-term funding bills alleviating uncertainty. However, fiscal restarts may expand deficits and increase bond supply, pushing yields higher.

Expectations for a Fed rate cut in December are rising, coupled with softening economic data, leading to lower real interest rates and supporting gold.

2. Market Sentiment and Fund Flows:

The VIX fear index has retreated to around 18, indicating a short-term recovery in risk appetite. However, caution is warranted against volatile fluctuations due to a backlog of data releases.

The U.S. dollar index dipped slightly (99.5520), and Treasury yields edged lower (4.116%). Gold remains resilient under the combined influence of "interest rates, the dollar, and risk sentiment."

3. Medium-Term Driving Factors:

Fed Policy Path: The December dot plot and communication will influence interest rate expectations.

Economic Data Calibration: Employment, consumption, and inflation data will determine the narrative of a "soft landing," "weak recovery," or "re-acceleration."

Dollar and Fund Allocation: If real interest rates continue to decline, with sustained ETF inflows and steady official purchases, gold's medium-term support will strengthen. Otherwise, it may enter a consolidation phase.

📈 Technical Analysis
Trend Structure:

The daily chart has formed a "bottom reversal" pattern. After breaking through the 4046 pivot level, bulls have gained dominance. However, the recent sharp rally warrants caution against a pullback.

Key resistance above lies at the 0.618 retracement level (4190) and the 4200 psychological barrier. Support below is focused in the 4090-4080 zone.

Trading Logic:

Short-term strategy favors buying on dips, with secondary short positions at highs. Avoid chasing rallies.

🎯 Trading Strategy Recommendations
Short Strategy (Enter on resistance)
Entry Zone: 4145-4150 (scale in)

Stop Loss: 4160-4165

Targets: 4120 → 4100 → 4080 (step-by-step)

Long Strategy (Enter on pullback to support)
Entry Zone: 4070-4080 (scale in)

Stop Loss: 4060-4065

Targets: 4125 → 4150 → 4180 (step-by-step)

⚠️ Risk Warnings
Strictly control position sizing, with single-trade stop losses not exceeding 3%-5% of capital.

Monitor Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar index, and U.S. fiscal policy developments.

If prices break above 4200 or below 4060, reassess the trend momentum.

📅 Key Data and Events to Monitor
U.S. October employment and CPI data

Speeches by Fed officials and forward guidance for the December FOMC meeting

U.S. Treasury debt issuance plans and dollar liquidity conditions

Summary: Gold is short-term bullish but faces technical pullback risks. Use the 4090-4080 zone as the bull-bear dividing line. Trade within the range by buying low and selling high, and follow the trend if the range breaks.

Nov 12

Trade active

Gold Latest Analysis and Trading Strategy:

I. Core Fundamental Drivers

Policy Expectations Support Gold Prices

Probability of a Fed rate cut in December has increased, boosting expectations for looser USD liquidity and enhancing gold's appeal.

The US government shutdown issue is nearing resolution; economic data will resume release, potentially amplifying market volatility.

Central Bank Gold Purchases Provide Long-Term Momentum

Global central banks continue to increase gold reserves: cumulative net purchases reached 634 tons in the first nine months of 2025, with China as the leading force.

The World Gold Council forecasts central bank purchases of 750-900 tons for 2025, with medium to long-term targets pointing towards $5000/oz.

Risk Warnings

If inflation remains persistently high, it could delay Fed rate cuts, triggering a risk asset adjustment and potentially putting short-term pressure on gold.

If the "tariff inflation" narrative fades after 2026, gold's upward momentum might weaken temporarily.

II. Key Technical Signals

Trend Structure

Breakout Confirmed: Wednesday's strong bullish candle broke through the key 4150 resistance, reaching a high of 4206, ending the consolidation phase and opening the door for further upside.

Multi-Timeframe Alignment: Daily and 4-hour moving averages are in a bullish alignment, indicating strong short-term momentum.

Critical Price Levels

Resistance Zones:

Short-term: 4200-4210 (4-hour upper Bollinger Band)

Core: 4250-4275 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement level)

Support Zones:

Primary: 4150 (Breakout confirmation/previous resistance turned support, key bull-bear line)

Strong Support: 4100 (Trend life-line)

Momentum Assessment

warranting caution for a technical pullback, but a secondary rally is expected after a dip to support zones.

Trend remains bullish as long as 4150 holds; a break below 4100 would shift the short-term outlook to neutral/consolidation.

III. Comprehensive Trading Strategy

Long Position Setup

Entry Timing:

Aggressive: Light long position on a pullback to 4160-4170.

Cautious: Add to longs near 4150 upon signs of stabilization.

Stop Loss: Place below 4140 (to guard against a false breakout).

Target Zones: 4230-4250, extend to 4275 upon a clear break above.

Short Position Defense (Counter-Trend)

Entry Timing:

Light short position on the first test of the 4250-4260 resistance area.

Stop Loss: Place above 4270.

Target Zones: 4200-4190, extend to 4170 upon a break lower.

IV. Risk Control & Execution

Position Management

Main strategy is to go long on pullbacks; short positions are only for light testing at resistance areas.

Keep risk per trade below 5% of capital; avoid holding losing positions against the trend.

Event Monitoring

Focus on US economic data releases , Fed official speeches, and US budget developments.

If rate cut expectations strengthen, consider raising long targets; if inflation exceeds expectations, be wary of a pullback towards 4100.

V. Summary

Trading Logic: Look to buy on dips in line with the trend, consider light shorts at resistance zones, and enforce strict risk control.

Medium to Long-Term Outlook: The combination of central bank buying and the potential Fed easing cycle suggests gold has potential to move towards $5000/oz, but be cautious of periodic adjustment risks.