Technical Analysis of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) - 1H Chart

Dec 11, 2024

The chart reflects a bullish rally, with price now testing resistance at $2,693 after breaking out of consolidation near $2,675. The key levels and volume dynamics suggest potential continuation or a pullback before the next significant move. Below is a detailed analysis of the bullish and bearish scenarios.

Key Observations
Trend Overview:

The price is in an uptrend, breaking out of prior consolidation and establishing higher highs and higher lows.
The NY Midnight Open at $2,698 is acting as a short-term resistance pivot.
Support Levels:

$2,675–$2,677: Immediate support zone, aligned with the breakout level.
$2,662–$2,665: Secondary support level, also the prior consolidation range.
$2,624–$2,626: Major demand zone, where strong buy-side activity occurred.
Resistance Levels:

$2,693–$2,698: Immediate resistance zone, currently being tested.
$2,713–$2,720: Key resistance level and breakout target for bullish continuation.
$2,740–$2,760: Extended resistance zone, marking an ultimate bullish target.
Volume Analysis:

Buy Volume (3.061M) vs. Sell Volume (508.77K): Indicates strong buying activity driving the rally.
Delta Volume (143%): Suggests dominance of buyers, with sell-side absorption near resistance.
Bullish Scenario
Conditions for a Bullish Move:

Price must break above the $2,693–$2,698 resistance zone with strong volume.
Sustained buying pressure above $2,698 will confirm bullish continuation.
Entry Points:

Aggressive Entry: Buy near the $2,675–$2,677 support zone, with a stop-loss below $2,670.
Conservative Entry: Enter on a confirmed breakout and retest above $2,698, with a stop-loss below $2,690.
Exit Points (Take Profit):

First Target: $2,713 (key resistance zone).
Second Target: $2,740 (extended bullish target).
Final Target: $2,760 (major resistance zone).
Invalidation:

A breakdown below $2,670 would invalidate the bullish scenario.
Bearish Scenario
Conditions for a Bearish Move:

Price fails to break above $2,698, indicating rejection at the resistance.
A confirmed breakdown below $2,675 would signal bearish momentum.
Entry Points:

Aggressive Entry: Short near $2,693, with a stop-loss above $2,700.
Conservative Entry: Enter short after a confirmed breakdown below $2,675, with a stop-loss above $2,685.
Exit Points (Take Profit):

First Target: $2,662–$2,665 (secondary support zone).
Second Target: $2,624 (major demand zone).
Final Target: $2,595 (extended bearish target).
Invalidation:

A breakout above $2,700 would invalidate the bearish scenario.
Key Indicators to Monitor
Volume Behavior:

Increasing buy volume above $2,693 confirms bullish strength.
Rising sell volume near $2,698 signals potential rejection.
Breakout/Breakdown Confirmation:

A breakout above $2,698 signals bullish continuation.
A breakdown below $2,675 signals bearish reversal.
Heikin Ashi Candles:

Sustained green candles with larger bodies confirm bullish momentum.
Red candles with long upper wicks near resistance indicate selling pressure.
Summary of Probable Entry & Exit Points
Scenario Entry Zone Stop-Loss Target Levels
Bullish $2,675–$2,677 (Aggressive) or above $2,698 (Conservative) $2,670 $2,713, $2,740, $2,760
Bearish $2,693 (Aggressive) or below $2,675 (Conservative) $2,700 $2,665, $2,624, $2,595
Conclusion
Bullish Outlook: A breakout above $2,698 could lead to a rally toward $2,713 or higher.
Bearish Outlook: Rejection at $2,698 or a breakdown below $2,675 could trigger a decline toward $2,665–$2,595.
Traders should closely monitor price action at the $2,698 resistance and $2,675 support levels for confirmation of the next move. Managing risk with tight stop-losses is essential in the current breakout/rejection scenario.