Gold Latest Analysis and Trading Strategy:

I. Core Fundamental Drivers

Policy Expectations Support Gold Prices

Probability of a Fed rate cut in December has increased, boosting expectations for looser USD liquidity and enhancing gold's appeal.

The US government shutdown issue is nearing resolution; economic data will resume release, potentially amplifying market volatility.

Central Bank Gold Purchases Provide Long-Term Momentum

Global central banks continue to increase gold reserves: cumulative net purchases reached 634 tons in the first nine months of 2025, with China as the leading force.

The World Gold Council forecasts central bank purchases of 750-900 tons for 2025, with medium to long-term targets pointing towards $5000/oz.

Risk Warnings

If inflation remains persistently high, it could delay Fed rate cuts, triggering a risk asset adjustment and potentially putting short-term pressure on gold.

If the "tariff inflation" narrative fades after 2026, gold's upward momentum might weaken temporarily.

II. Key Technical Signals

Trend Structure

Breakout Confirmed: Wednesday's strong bullish candle broke through the key 4150 resistance, reaching a high of 4206, ending the consolidation phase and opening the door for further upside.

Multi-Timeframe Alignment: Daily and 4-hour moving averages are in a bullish alignment, indicating strong short-term momentum.

Critical Price Levels

Resistance Zones:

Short-term: 4200-4210 (4-hour upper Bollinger Band)

Core: 4250-4275 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement level)

Support Zones:

Primary: 4150 (Breakout confirmation/previous resistance turned support, key bull-bear line)

Strong Support: 4100 (Trend life-line)

Momentum Assessment

warranting caution for a technical pullback, but a secondary rally is expected after a dip to support zones.

Trend remains bullish as long as 4150 holds; a break below 4100 would shift the short-term outlook to neutral/consolidation.

III. Comprehensive Trading Strategy

Long Position Setup

Entry Timing:

Aggressive: Light long position on a pullback to 4160-4170.

Cautious: Add to longs near 4150 upon signs of stabilization.

Stop Loss: Place below 4140 (to guard against a false breakout).

Target Zones: 4230-4250, extend to 4275 upon a clear break above.

Short Position Defense (Counter-Trend)

Entry Timing:

Light short position on the first test of the 4250-4260 resistance area.

Stop Loss: Place above 4270.

Target Zones: 4200-4190, extend to 4170 upon a break lower.

IV. Risk Control & Execution

Position Management

Main strategy is to go long on pullbacks; short positions are only for light testing at resistance areas.

Keep risk per trade below 5% of capital; avoid holding losing positions against the trend.

Event Monitoring

Focus on US economic data releases , Fed official speeches, and US budget developments.

If rate cut expectations strengthen, consider raising long targets; if inflation exceeds expectations, be wary of a pullback towards 4100.

V. Summary

Trading Logic: Look to buy on dips in line with the trend, consider light shorts at resistance zones, and enforce strict risk control.

Medium to Long-Term Outlook: The combination of central bank buying and the potential Fed easing cycle suggests gold has potential to move towards $5000/oz, but be cautious of periodic adjustment risks.