2.17 latest gold trend analysis

6 days ago

Gold latest market trend analysis:


Gold news analysis: Spot gold rebounded slightly in the late European trading session on Monday (February 17), but the strength was limited. The single-day decline on Friday reached 1.5%, falling from the historical high. However, it should be noted that the price volatility increased significantly after the long squeeze, and it was running at a high level. The longs took profits, causing the gold price to adjust. The gold price is approaching $2,905/ounce, up more than $22 a day. At present, the Trump administration plans to formally impose tariffs on auto imports on April 2, which may have a wide impact on the global supply chain. Although some investors believe that Trump's tariff policy is mainly a negotiation strategy, the market remains cautious about possible uncertainties in the future. In addition to safe-haven demand, the central bank's continued gold purchases are also a key factor in maintaining high gold prices. According to market surveys, major central banks around the world, especially those in major Asian countries, continue to increase their gold reserves to hedge against global economic uncertainties. Monday is the US President's Day holiday. The US stock market is closed and the precious metals market is closed in advance. Market trading may be limited. Pay attention to the speech of Federal Reserve Board member Bowman and Trump's dynamic news, and pay attention to news related to the situation in Russia and Ukraine. There are relatively few economic data this week, mainly due to the US real estate market data and the initial value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI in February. Pay attention to the interest rate decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.


Gold technical analysis: The gold daily line shows a trend of closing down with a high-level big negative, and the Bollinger Bands also show signs of closing. However, from the current technical perspective alone, it is not enough to determine the formation of the top. The main basis is that the unilateral moving average has not broken, and the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average have not turned downward, which means that gold still has the possibility of rising. If the daily line continues to close with a big positive this week, the double top position of 2942 above may also be broken. It can be seen that the current technical aspect is generally bullish. If the unilateral moving average does not break, the downward trend will be difficult to continue; and if the key resistance level of 2942 is not broken, it will be difficult for gold to usher in a new round of substantial gains. Based on this, it is expected that gold will maintain a long-term volatile trend at a high level. Focus on the two key resistance levels of 2930 and 2942 on the top, and pay attention to the support of 2875 and 2830 on the bottom. The limit support is expected to be 2800.According to our trading strategy analysis last weekend, our professional senior gold analyst team has given a short order trading strategy at 2903-2905 during today's Asian trading time, and then took profits at 2888-2890, with a maximum profit of 150PIPS.


In terms of small cycles, special attention should be paid to the volatile market of the H4 cycle. Above 2878, the H4 cycle closed with a small cross star above the lower Bollinger track, and the 60-day moving average has not broken, so a rebound under the bullish trend is normal. Then the big sun closed up, and the Bollinger band closed, which also laid a bullish tone for the market at the beginning of the week. In this case, it is necessary to wait for the end of the rising market of the H4 cycle, and then judge whether there is room for adjustment. Pay attention to the resistance levels of 2915 and 2930 on the top. Taken together, in terms of today's short-term operation of gold, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends to focus on long callbacks, supplemented by rebounds from high altitudes. The top short-term focus will be on the 2915-2920 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus will be on the 2885-2880 first-line support.

Today's gold operation strategy:

1. If gold falls back to 2880-2885, go long with a light position. If it falls back to 2868-2870, cover long positions, stop loss at 2862, target at 2910-2915; continue to hold if it breaks!

2. If gold rebounds, go short at 2915-2920, stop loss at 2927, target at 2897-2887;

5 days ago

Trade active

Analysis of the latest gold trend on February 18:

In the early European trading session on Tuesday (February 18), spot gold fell short-term from its intraday high. The current gold price is around $2,910/ounce. Earlier, the gold price was close to $2,916/ounce. On Tuesday, senior representatives from the United States and Russia will hold a meeting to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. This is the most talked about event of the day and is expected to trigger market movements. Developments surrounding negotiations between the Kremlin and Washington will be a major market driver. If the talks do not go smoothly, risk aversion may intensify, and gold prices may find new safe-haven demand and rise in tandem with the US dollar. On the other hand, further progress on a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war could help geopolitical tensions continue to ease, making it difficult for gold to build bullish momentum. Gold can act as a geopolitical hedge, an inflation hedge, and a hedge against the US dollar at the same time. It is the first two factors that have made gold such a strong investment over the past year, while buying by central banks and retail investors has also pushed up gold prices. The recent decline in the dollar has increased upward pressure on dollar-denominated gold, making it cheaper to buy gold in other currencies. This year, strong buying by central banks is expected to be a key factor driving gold demand as they seek to reduce their reliance on the dollar. Fundamentally, although the gold market faces some profit-taking pressure in the short term, the long-term upward trend remains unchanged. The Trump administration's tariff plans, inflation expectations, a weaker dollar and global trade tensions will continue to support gold's rising prospects. At the same time, weak US economic data and a sharp drop in retail sales may mean that the US economy faces some risk of slowing growth, as well as the Fed's policy uncertainty, which will further strengthen the market's demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.


In recent weeks, gold has become the best-performing "Trump trade", outperforming other major asset classes since Donald Trump took office, as concerns about trade wars and potential blows to global economic growth have stimulated demand for safe-haven metals. As traders and banks scramble to ship gold from London, the world's largest physical trading center, to the United States, New York's gold reserves continue to increase, boosting gold prices. New York's gold reserves have increased by 116% since the US election. That led to weeks-long queues to take gold out of the Bank of England's vaults. Trump’s latest tariff offensive includes plans to impose “reciprocal” tariffs on U.S. trading partners, including allies and adversaries. He also imposed an additional 10% tariff on goods from China. Analysts say a global trade war will curb economic growth and fuel inflation, factors that are generally bullish for gold. While gold continued its long-term rally, other "Trump trades" posted losses. The dollar has fallen 2.4% against a basket of other currencies this year and has also fallen sharply since Trump took office. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to just over 4.8% last month but has fallen back to 4.48% as bond prices have recovered. Traders and investors said the U.S. tariffs were taking a "gradual approach" compared to previous fears, boosting currencies such as the euro and causing the dollar's gains to stall. Meanwhile, the focus has shifted to the risks of the trade war to economic growth, prompting investors to buy government bonds.

Gold technical analysis:

From the technical perspective of gold, the trend of indicators and prices has been divergent in recent periods, suggesting that the trend may undergo a major turning point, but the downward trend has not been obvious so far. Yesterday, the price of gold was mainly volatile, recording a cross star K-line. After two failed upward attacks, the MACD indicator double lines began to send a dead cross reversal signal. The price stopped falling, suggesting that the lower support resistance is strong in the short term. It can be temporarily viewed as a volatile idea, and pay attention to the direction breakthrough after high-level consolidation. The short-term adjustment of gold is more of a technical correction. It is overbought and bullish sentiment is overheated. On the fundamentals, the expectations of Fed officials for interest rate cuts in 2025 are divergent, and inflation indicators continue to be paid attention to. From the daily line analysis, the daily moving average MACD high dead cross, but the first dead cross in the bull trend often forms a secondary buying point. The short-term moving average deviation value is too large, and the main waiting is for the moving average to move up. If the daily level long-short watershed near $2,880 is not broken, it will maintain high-level fluctuations, and the upper pressure is near $2,925. Taken together, in terms of gold's short-term operation today, our professional gold analyst team recommends going long by stepping back to lows, supplemented by shorting highs. The upper short-term focus will be on the 2925-2930 first-line resistance, and the lower short-term will focus on the 2895-2890 first-line support.

2.18 Gold Operation Strategy Reference:

Short Order Strategy:
Strategy 1: Short (Sell short) near 2925-2930 when gold rebounds, stop loss 6 points, target near 2900-2895, break to see 2890 line;

Long Order Strategy:
Strategy 2: Go long (buy up) near 2890-2895 when gold pulls back, stop loss 6 points, target near 2900-2910, break to see 2915 line;

4 days ago

Trade closed: target reached

Analysis of the latest trend of gold market:

Analysis of gold news: On Wednesday (February 19) during the U.S. trading session, the international gold market hit a high and then fell back. The market is currently paying attention to the talks between U.S. and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's January monetary policy meeting to be released on this trading day. Recently, U.S. President Trump has reiterated that he will impose high tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors and pharmaceutical products, of which automobile tariffs may reach 25%, which has intensified market concerns about global trade. However, the U.S. dollar as a whole is still near a two-month low as the market is cautious about the tariff threats constantly released by the Trump administration. "As long as Trump is seen as 'crying wolf' on the issue of tariffs, long positions in the U.S. dollar will face pressure," said Sean Callow, senior foreign exchange analyst at InTouch Capital Markets. At the same time, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its January meeting later on Wednesday, and investors hope to find out the Fed's views on the impact of the global trade situation. At present, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by about 35 basis points in 2025, which may limit the upside of the U.S. dollar.

Technical analysis of gold: From the daily chart of gold, after a brief correction at the previous high, the price of gold rose strongly again yesterday, not only rising above the short-term moving average group, but also close to the historical high. The next key pressure level is expected to be around $2,960. At this stage, the MACD indicator is expected to form a golden cross again, but the indicator is still running at a high level, and the upward momentum is slightly insufficient. If the red column of the MACD indicator turns green, indicating a decrease in momentum, there is a possibility of a second downward trend in the gold price. This week, investors can focus on price action in the $2,910-$2,960 range.

From the perspective of gold 4 hours, the price of gold once fell below $2,880, but after successfully standing firm at the key support level this week, the bulls once again exerted their strength and recovered the $2,900 mark. The current price is close to the $2,942 pressure level, and various technical indicators are still in the rising range. It can be seen that the price of gold has returned to the upward trend. However, if we want to further open up the upward space, we need to break through the previous historical high as soon as possible. In addition, the MACD indicator forms a golden cross again near the 0 axis, which is undoubtedly a positive signal. If the gold price can effectively stand at $2942, it is expected to open up upward space. Based on the above analysis, in terms of operational strategies, it is still recommended that investors mainly go long on dips. On the whole, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends buying on pullbacks as the main strategy and shorting on rebounds as the supplementary strategy. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 2950-2955 resistance line, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 2925-2920 support line.