XAUUSD SELL

XAUUSD

Preference:
This week, officials from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have made efforts to manage market expectations regarding interest rate reductions. Despite the general consensus that both central banks will lower interest rates this year to realign with inflation targets, the magnitude and pace of the cuts anticipated by the market are inconsistent with the positions of the Fed and the ECB. Specifically, the market had previously projected seven quarter-point interest rate cuts in the United States for 2019, beginning in March, based on the CME FedFund expectations. However, the current outlook has been revised to reflect six cuts, and some of these predictions may be unfounded.

Despite a recent upward trend, the market remains dominated by sellers (bear). A 30-minute time frame analysis indicates that price is currently testing the 200 EMA. Should the price fail to break above this level, we may see a continuation of the prevailing downward trend. Therefore, investors and traders alike should exercise caution in their decision-making processes, taking into account the potential ramifications of a failed breakout attempt.
Alternative Scenario:
In the event that the price exceeds this structural level on the 30 min time frame, it is advisable that we await a retest before considering the buy setup. This approach is necessary to ensure that we make informed decisions and minimize any potential risks. We acknowledge the importance of exercising caution in our investment decisions and therefore, we will adhere to this prudent strategy.