Analysis of the latest trend of gold market:

Feb 13

Analysis of gold news: Spot gold traded around 2913 on Thursday, and gold prices remained stable on Wednesday, supported by safe-haven demand. US President Trump's new tariff policy has triggered concerns about global trade. At the same time, the market digested higher-than-expected inflation data in the United States; after the release of CPI data, the market reacted quickly and violently. The U.S. dollar index rose sharply in the short term. At the same time, spot gold fell sharply under pressure. After the release of CPI data, the market reacted quickly and violently. The US dollar index rose sharply in the short term, breaking through 108.40, and rose 55 basis points in the short term, showing that the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates have risen. At the same time, spot gold fell sharply under pressure, with a short-term decline of more than 1%, hitting a low of $2,863.99 per ounce, showing investors' sensitive response to a stronger US dollar. U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply after the data was released, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising 6.1 basis points to 4.602%, and the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates have further heated up.

Technical analysis of gold: Yesterday's CPI data still failed to play a key role in the gold market. Under the premise of big negative news, gold only fell rapidly and then pulled back again. The market volatility caused by the data did not continue! Although the CPI data is unfavorable to gold, the gold price bottomed out and rebounded, and the rebound was more than 30 US dollars. The bulls still held the key position. The last round of rising point 2834 is the key watershed. Only when this position is broken will there be a large adjustment. Above this, it is a strong correction. The recent fluctuations are very large. From 2942 to 2864, it has retreated 78 US dollars in just two trading days. Therefore, it is necessary to pay special attention to risk control. From the market, gold is more like a rebound after the last wave of bottoming out! In the short term, the bulls are still quite strong!

The intraday market is a shock retracement, so it is possible to go short, but not in the US market. The overall trend is still strong at present, especially the rebound after the rapid decline due to negative data, which is largely a trap. The current price is still above the short-term moving average, and there is no condition for reaching the top. Pay attention to the closing of the daily line to determine the strength. In the short term, gold is just adjusting and has not broken down. It will naturally continue to rise after the adjustment. This clarifies the direction for our future layout. In the later stage, we will continue to go long when the opportunity arises. The lower point is still focused on the short-term resistance level of 2880. There are many false breakthroughs in the market recently. Taken together, in terms of today's short-term operation of gold, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends to focus on longs on callbacks, supplemented by shorts on rebounds. The top short-term focus will be on the 2925-2930 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus will be on the 2893-2888 first-line support.

Gold operation strategy:
Operation strategy 1: It is recommended to call back more than 2890-2892 and lose 2882. The target is to see 2915-2925 to break the position and see 2935 to compete. Operation strategy

Operation strategy2: It is recommended to rebound from 2935-2940 to be short, with a loss of 2946, and a target of 2910-2900

Feb 13

Trade active

Analysis of the latest trend of gold market:

Analysis of gold news: Spot gold continued to be bullish during the US market on Thursday (February 13). Gold prices rose sharply in the Asian session and hit an intraday high of $2,923.10. Although the US CPI data for January exceeded expectations, gold quickly returned to the bullish range after a risk aversion-dominated stage. It is expected to accelerate further in the short term. Before the risk aversion sentiment changes, wait for the acceleration opportunity after the daily moving average moves up. It should be noted that the short-term volatility has increased significantly, and do not chase the rise and fall. Recently, there have been frequent dynamics in the US economy and trade, with the focus on the Fed's policies and the Trump administration's tariff measures. On the Fed side, Chairman Powell testified in Congress on Wednesday that given that the US CPI rose 3% year-on-year in January, higher than in December, and inflation did not reach the 2% target, he emphasized that he was not in a hurry to cut interest rates and maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged. Although he admitted that the interest rate hike in 2021 was slightly late, he believed that the impact would not be significant. Traders expect no further interest rate cuts before September, or only one this year. At the same time, the Fed will review its monetary policy strategy. In terms of trade policy, Trump's series of tariff measures have triggered a chain reaction. The steel and aluminum tariffs will be raised to 25% this week, which may intensify the global trade war and inflation. In addition, Trump's phone call with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders on February 12 may affect the situation between Russia and Ukraine.

Technical analysis of gold: From the perspective of technical pattern analysis, since the price hit the key point of 2583, the gold price has shown a step-by-step upward trend. In the rising process, although there are negative lines interspersed during the period, the number of negative lines does not exceed two at most, and the price adjustment period never exceeds two trading days. After completing the closing yesterday, today has become a key time node for the trend of the gold market. Whether today can successfully close positive will directly determine whether the subsequent market can continue the strong pattern. According to the cyclical pattern of the previous gold market price trend, this trading day should first be treated as a strong market, and the price is expected to turn positive.

In addition, the current trend rhythm of the gold market is in the callback stage after the upward trend, not a fundamental turning point in the trend. Looking back at historical market data, the change of the upward trend usually requires the appearance of typical turning patterns such as continuous arrangement of large negative lines and one large negative line engulfing multiple positive lines. For example, the trend change of gold prices at the historical high of 2790 in the previous period and the two declines after being under pressure at 2725 points were accompanied by such significant turning signals. At present, there are no similar morphological characteristics in the gold market, so it can be firmly judged that the current market is just a relay correction stage in the bullish upward process. The purpose of this correction is to accumulate strength and create favorable conditions for the further rise of gold prices in the future. Based on the above analysis, for today's gold market, it is recommended to maintain a low-long strategy. In terms of specific operations, we should carefully select points to arrange long orders, continue to maintain an optimistic expectation for the rise in gold prices, and expect the long forces to exert force again after completing the correction to start a new round of rising market. In terms of point selection, focus on the gold price stepping back to the integer mark of 2900. Once the stop-loss signal appears at this point, you can follow up with long orders and continue to look at the price upward. Overall, our team of professional and experienced gold analysts recommends that short-term gold trading strategies today be mainly long on pullbacks, supplemented by short on rebounds. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 2929-2934 resistance line, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 2900-2895 support line.

Gold trading strategy:
Long order operation: Long on pullback to 2900-2895, stop loss 2885, target 2910 2920

Short order operation: Short on the first touch of 2935-2940, stop loss 2947, target 2920 2910

Feb 15

Trade closed: target reached

Analysis of gold market trends next week:
Analysis of gold news: On Friday (February 14), gold prices fell sharply due to profit-taking, but are still expected to rise for the seventh consecutive week. Spot gold fell 1.53% to $2,882.23 per ounce, but the cumulative increase this week is still nearly 0.8%. On Tuesday, gold prices hit a record high of $2,942.70 per ounce. The sharp decline in U.S. retail sales in January put pressure on the dollar, but gold prices plummeted by about 1.5% on Friday and fell below $2,900 per ounce as traders took profits before the weekend. Data released on Friday showed that U.S. retail sales in January contracted by 0.9% month-on-month, far worse than the expected -0.1%. Gold prices fell sharply despite falling U.S. bond yields. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 4.48%. U.S. real yields, which are inversely correlated with gold prices, fell 4 basis points to 2.041%. Despite a sharp correction on Friday, gold prices still rose for the seventh consecutive week this week, mainly because U.S. President Trump promoted the "reciprocal tariff" policy, which triggered market concerns about the global trade war and further promoted safe-haven buying.

Technical analysis of gold: The gold market experienced a significant decline on Friday night, and the technical form showed a double top structure, which is usually regarded as a reversal signal, indicating that the market may enter a period of adjustment. From the perspective of technical indicators, the MACD indicator currently forms a dead cross at a high level, and the momentum column gradually shrinks, indicating that the market's upward momentum is weakening and the risk of decline is accumulating. At the same time, MA5 (5-day moving average) has crossed MA10 (10-day moving average), forming a dead cross signal of the short-term moving average, further confirming the market's adjustment needs. These technical signals all point to the possibility that gold may continue to pull back in the short term.

The 4-hour chart of gold rebounded yesterday at the 2940 line and then closed lower under pressure, pulling the moving average indicator to turn around, and the 4-hour chart rose slowly and fell quickly. The rise is a continuous rise of small broken Yang lines, and the big fall is a big Yin line with a small Yang line rebound correction and then a big Yin line down. The rise for five days and the fall for one day have lost nearly half of the rising space. At the same time, the 4-hour chart lost the middle track and weakened. The pressure of the middle track of the Bollinger Bands has also begun to move down to the 2900 line, and the hourly chart is flat. The short-term idea is still to fluctuate and fall, but the rhythm is slightly slower. Friday's scary data was bullish for gold prices. Gold rose slightly to 2933 and then fell all the way. The main reason was the weekend closing, which was caused by profit-making selling of long orders at high levels. It once fell below 2900 and gave a low of 2877 during the session, and finally closed at 2882.

After this high-level diving trend, the trend for next week is already clear. After the long sell-off, we can still find support positions at low levels to arrange long orders next week. From the hourly chart, gold price hit a new high of 2942 this week, and after the pullback at the end of last week, it has gone through two waves of pullbacks. 2865 below is a support reference, so you can open a long position above this position next Monday to look bullish; as for the suppression above, you can pay attention to the four-hour Bollinger band middle track 2908 and the starting and falling point 2930 at the end of the week. Taken together, in terms of short-term operation ideas for gold next week, our professional and senior gold analyst team recommends mainly shorting on rebounds, supplemented by longing on lows. The upper short-term focus will be on the 2903-2908 first-line resistance, and the lower short-term will focus on the 2865-2860 first-line support.

Gold operation strategy:

1. When gold rebounds, go short at the 2903-2908 line, stop loss at 2915, and target the 2880 line; continue to hold if the position is broken! Look down to 2860