Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Short

Comprehensive Multi-Timeframe Analysis & Trading Plan

75
Executive Summary

Short-Term View (5M/15M):
Price action trades below EMA-8 and EMA-21, with the SMA-50 capping as resistance. Bearish divergence in momentum (RSI < 50) aligns with rejection candles. Short setups dominate with targets at $2,630.00.
Mid-Term View (30M/1H):
Bearish structure persists. Breakdowns below EMA-21 align with bearish Fair Value Gaps (FVGs). Support lies at $2,633.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%), with SMA-50 resistance at $2,645.00.
Long-Term View (4H):
Lower highs and lows confirm bearish dominance. EMA-21 and SMA-50 align as strong resistance near $2,650.00, with a downside target at $2,617.00.
Swing Trading View (Daily):
Price has rejected SMA-50 ($2,660.00) and trades firmly below EMA-8 and EMA-21. Key target: $2,617.00.
Hypothetical Trade Setup (Best Opportunity):

Sell Stop Order: Entry at $2,640.00, Stop Loss at $2,646.00, and Take Profit at $2,630.00.




Comprehensive Multi-Timeframe Analysis & Trading Plan

1. Short-Term View (5M/15M)
Moving Averages (EMA-8, EMA-21, SMA-50):

Price consistently trades below EMA-8 and EMA-21, showing strong bearish momentum.
SMA-50 acts as dynamic resistance near $2,642.00.
Price Action Analysis:

Bearish candlestick formations like Shooting Star confirm rejection zones at resistance.
Overextensions below EMA-8 suggest bearish mean-reversion opportunities.
Momentum Indicators:

RSI: At 49, below neutral, confirming weak upward momentum.
Stochastic RSI: Approaching oversold levels, watch for a bounce at $2,630.
Key Levels:

Resistance: $2,642.00 (EMA-21/SMA-50).
Support: $2,630.00 (Psychological and prior low).

2. Mid-Term View (30M/1H)
Trend Assessment:

Clear lower highs and lower lows on both 30M and 1H charts.
Price trades firmly below EMA-21 and SMA-50, confirming mid-term bearish trend continuation.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG):

Bearish FVG zone between $2,645.00–$2,650.00 has been rejected.
Tested support near $2,633.00 aligns with Fibonacci 23.6%.
Momentum Analysis:

ADX: Rising above 25, showing increasing trend strength favoring bears.
RSI: Hovering around 42 on 1H, reflecting persistent weakness.
Key Levels:

Resistance: $2,645.00.
Support: $2,633.00–$2,630.00.

3. Long-Term View (4H)
Detachment Analysis:

Price remains detached below EMA-21 and rejected at SMA-50.
Downward continuation likely towards support at $2,617.00.
Key Levels:

Resistance: $2,650.00 (SMA-50, Fib 50%).
Support: $2,630.00 and $2,617.00.
Volume Analysis:

Sustained negative volume spikes confirm bearish dominance.
4. Swing Trading View (Daily)
Trend Structure:

Price has decisively broken below EMA-8 and EMA-21.
SMA-50 at $2,660.00 rejected the upward move, triggering bearish swing continuation.
Momentum Indicators:

RSI: At 49, momentum remains bearish.
ADX: Confirming trend direction and strength.
Key Levels:

Resistance: $2,660.00 (SMA-50).
Support: $2,617.00 (swing low).

5. Trade Scenarios & Triggers
Timeframe Trade Setup Entry Price Stop Loss Take Profit 1 Take Profit 2 Trigger Condition
5M/15M Short Rejection $2,642.00 $2,644.00 $2,635.00 $2,630.00 Bearish rejection near EMA-21 and SMA-50.
30M/1H Breakout Short $2,640.00 $2,646.00 $2,633.00 $2,627.00 Price closes below EMA-8 with volume increase.
4H Short Continuation $2,642.00 $2,650.00 $2,630.00 $2,617.00 EMA-21 and SMA-50 align, confirming weakness.
Daily Swing Short $2,642.00 $2,660.00 $2,617.00 $2,600.00 Rejection from SMA-50 and bearish close.

6. Volume & Momentum Analysis Across Timeframes
Indicator 5M/15M 30M/1H 4H/Daily
RSI Bearish < 50 Weak momentum (42–45) Bearish below 50
Stochastic RSI Near oversold Oversold approaching Weak bullish attempts
ADX Weak trend (5M/15M) Rising trend strength Strong trend above 25
Volume Bearish spikes Bearish dominance Negative volume flow

7. Hypothetical Trade Setup (Best Opportunity)
Order Type: Sell Stop
Entry: $2,640.00
Stop Loss: $2,646.00
Take Profit 1: $2,630.00
Take Profit 2: $2,617.00
Confidence: 80%

8. Key Success Factors (KSF)
Trade Alignment: Entries align with bearish trends on all timeframes.
Volume Confirmation: Rising negative volume spikes confirm sell setups.
Invalidation Level: Breach above $2,646.00 cancels short-term setups.
Liquidity Sweeps: Watch for liquidity sweeps near $2,630.00 for added confirmation.

⚡ Final Notes:
XAU/USD presents strong bearish opportunities across all timeframes. Key areas to watch are the $2,642 resistance and $2,630–$2,617 support range.

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.