BTCUSD: Bitcoin Reverse Head and Shoulders Trying to Complete
Updated
10:00 gmt 05:00est Saturday Bitcoin Bitmex Chart Update
After holding up overnight Bitcoin began to break higher above
7450 at 06:00 am in Europe triggering the next long to the
7624-7735 range with a high so far at 7681 on Bitmex.
In doing so Bitcoin is defying the bears as it tries to complete
the RHS pattern we've been watching develop over the last
few days of trading. To do this Bitcoin has to find buyers
enough to break above the 7735 level on Bitmex and the other
feeds we cover to trigger the next long or add from here to
7948 initially and then to the minimum upside target created
by the RHS at 8157.
Returning to the downside, although this RHS pattern looks
'real' it hasn't completed yet and can't do without fresh buying
power to push it through the 7735 level.
It can stooge around for some time here making up its mind.
Despite renewed optimism for the weekend ahead it can still
fail and end in disappointment if we don't see that break
above 7735 materialise later today. It's Ok for price to come
back to the 7641 and then retest the 7600 main neck-line
again but it should hold up from here if it's to stay positive
from here.
Any subsequent failure to hold 7600 during the course of
today would be the first clue that the RHS is failing due to
lack of interest - it should then start to fall away further to
7500-7448 range again at first and attempt to rally again from
there.
More as the day develops...
After holding up overnight Bitcoin began to break higher above
7450 at 06:00 am in Europe triggering the next long to the
7624-7735 range with a high so far at 7681 on Bitmex.
In doing so Bitcoin is defying the bears as it tries to complete
the RHS pattern we've been watching develop over the last
few days of trading. To do this Bitcoin has to find buyers
enough to break above the 7735 level on Bitmex and the other
feeds we cover to trigger the next long or add from here to
7948 initially and then to the minimum upside target created
by the RHS at 8157.
Returning to the downside, although this RHS pattern looks
'real' it hasn't completed yet and can't do without fresh buying
power to push it through the 7735 level.
It can stooge around for some time here making up its mind.
Despite renewed optimism for the weekend ahead it can still
fail and end in disappointment if we don't see that break
above 7735 materialise later today. It's Ok for price to come
back to the 7641 and then retest the 7600 main neck-line
again but it should hold up from here if it's to stay positive
from here.
Any subsequent failure to hold 7600 during the course of
today would be the first clue that the RHS is failing due to
lack of interest - it should then start to fall away further to
7500-7448 range again at first and attempt to rally again from
there.
More as the day develops...
Note
Bitcoin Bitfinex Chart UpdateBitcoin Bitstamp Chart Update
Bitcoin Coinbase Chart Update
Note
Bitcoin UpdateWhilst the institutions are away just 'hope' we get a play out of Bitcoin in a couple of hours or so - but if the break higher doesn't come this could yet end being a big fail - need to stay alert and try hard to quit the hoping and just follow what the chart tells us from here if we can. Robo-trader mode if poss
There is a chance that when US wakes up they will see the RHS and buy it above the next break level at 7730-7735.
If that happens the Alts will start to fly and start to outperform - BTC and even BTG.
*For Updates in real time this weekend please see link at top-left of main page
Note
Bitcoin Update BitfinexForming a continuation pattern but still not a good look - th ebreak higher only took it to the previous high - we still need a be=reak above 7735 on all exchanges really to follow long again.
Am unsure about downside from here right now, except that it's still vulnerable whilst unable to break higher, as above.
It will have to break both fixed support centred around 7600 and the lower parallel of the pattern and then also the final rising dynamic underpinning the lows at around 7532 to think about getting short again with much conviction at this point.
Bitfinex Chart Updated
Bitcoin Bitstamp Update
Coinbase Chart Update
Bitcoin Bitmex Chart Update
Bitmex Chart Closer
Note
09:32 gmt. 04:32 est Bitcoin Bitmex UpdateWaiting all Saturday for the break - first one arrives at 07:30gmt/02:30est on Saturday morning.
Anfd now after spending yesterday testing the 7600 line and spiking off it twice in the process, this second break higher of the weekend session has also occurred at 07:30 gmt.
It's triggered a second long or add at 7735 but the spike above it is too big to ingnore.
With price at 7725 now am closing this long out for 10 or so loss before costs. Just don't like it right now as the high is right on the upper dynamic of the pattern. Prefer to keep powder dry for now.
New update in next few minutes.
For fastest real-time updates this weekend please see link at top left of main page
Note
Bitcoin Bitfinex Chart UpdateSo far this looks like a good Reverse/Inverse Head and Shoulders in classic formation with a perfect retest of the neck-line yesterday at 7600 (even more so because no one seems to have really mentioned it - the low today here is 7600 precisely).
It carries with it a minimum implied upside target at 8163 on Bitfinex.
But in the near term Bitcoin has made an 07:30gmt break higher from the 7644 line as it did yesterday too -before spending 24 hours moving sideways again.
The new normal. Sheesh. Every break higher is getting faded now for hours and hours after the intial impulse. £0 minutes of action followed by 24 hours of continuation. Just like fishing on a slow day :(
But this break today is still potentially significant.
We now have a technical battle emerging between the power of the RHS on upside and the power of the upper dynamic of a loosely defined rising wedge-like formation on the downside, both in opposition to each-other, one a positive force and the other negative.
So we can spend quite some time today in yet another continuation pattern with support at 7700 and extending to the lower parallel of the newly forming pattern from the intra-day high.
Both these opposing patterns are powerful. Which pattern will prove stronger ?
Well, so long as the dynamic which forms the lows of the right shoulder holds up on retests today the likelihood is that eventually the break will be higher and not lower.
If so other than buying the dip to 7700 and below to 7768 and maybe to the 7644 line the only other option is to buy the break above the upper small falling dynamic from the intra-day high when and if it comes later on - need a volume spurt to follow it to know it's good - but the pattern is still overall positive at this point and the uppermost risng dynamic which capped the high today so far, is beginning to lose its power and on the 5th strike it should break too. That will open the way for a RHS to take control and begin to drive price towards the upside target at 8163.
Returning to the downside Bitcoin has to break below the risng dynamic underpinning the lows of the right shoulder of the RHS to start flipping longs out back to 7644 and if this then fails to the neck-line itself again at 7600.
This level must hold up throughout the day from here. Any failure by more than 15 points will flip Bitcoin back into bear hands, signalling ultimate failure of the RHS and trigger a short from this point with stops 50 points or so higher if struck later.
Bitcoin Bitfinex Closer
Bitcoin Bitstamp Chart Update
Coinbase Chart Update
Bitcoin Bitmex Chart Update
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