Bitcoin: Dos posibles escenarios y una nueva esperanza
Updated
Desde que el hype estival se vino abajo he sido un oso pesimista, vaticinando que este máximo podría incluso ser solo un bear market rally con ojos a posibles mínimos más bajos con una ligera probabilidad ~1/3 mientras que lo más seguro era permanecer en el territorio de movimientos laterales una temporada (P=2/3?). En el fondo tendría sentido que, siendo 2017 un año alcista y 2018 un año bajista, 2019 podría ser un buen año para el Sideways.
La reciente acción del precio me hace pensar que podríamos entrar en un terreno alcista antes de lo previsto. Veamos dicha AP:
El soporte .618 ha aguantado bien y podría haber dado por finalizado una onda C y dado comienzo a una nueva onda de impulso C1, 23, 45.
Esto nos abre la oportunidad de tomar posición bajo riesgos calculados con intención de atrapar esta onda de impulso 23, normalmente la más agresiva de todas.
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After last summer hype went down to goblintown I've been a pesimistic bear, calling this all could just be a bear market rally aiming for a sideways year or even lower lows than seen in Dec2018. Some gutfeel advising me that, as 2017 was bullish and 2018 was bearish, 2019 might be a sideways year.
But, recent price action made me consider: What if I'm wrong? I should be somehow scientific (or honest) and try to falsify my theory. And what I saw with the recent price action made me start looking forward a calculated risk long position at this level.
-So whats with the PA?: Well, .618 stood strong and we bounced hard in what it could look like the beginning of an impulse wave. I expect to catch the 2 to 3 wave ride. Also MFI and oscillators support the long perspective.
La reciente acción del precio me hace pensar que podríamos entrar en un terreno alcista antes de lo previsto. Veamos dicha AP:
El soporte .618 ha aguantado bien y podría haber dado por finalizado una onda C y dado comienzo a una nueva onda de impulso C1, 23, 45.
Esto nos abre la oportunidad de tomar posición bajo riesgos calculados con intención de atrapar esta onda de impulso 23, normalmente la más agresiva de todas.
//
After last summer hype went down to goblintown I've been a pesimistic bear, calling this all could just be a bear market rally aiming for a sideways year or even lower lows than seen in Dec2018. Some gutfeel advising me that, as 2017 was bullish and 2018 was bearish, 2019 might be a sideways year.
But, recent price action made me consider: What if I'm wrong? I should be somehow scientific (or honest) and try to falsify my theory. And what I saw with the recent price action made me start looking forward a calculated risk long position at this level.
-So whats with the PA?: Well, .618 stood strong and we bounced hard in what it could look like the beginning of an impulse wave. I expect to catch the 2 to 3 wave ride. Also MFI and oscillators support the long perspective.
Note
Mi idea anterior:My previous idea:
gyazo. com/610e901de198137e677811906c92fdf7
Do not long until we consolidate over said level. But now I'm anticipating that.
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