Bitcoin possibly lining up for one of its most violant moves
So for everyone who has seen or not my ideas - I am an elliottician. You can just close it right now or stay and read carefully.
I will link below my 8h idea which is by far the most probable count in play right now but lets just start by bringing logic to this move on the 15m.
For those who don't understand EW lets just say that algorithmic activity potentially has the setup to bring this baby to the moon as of Monday. For various technical reasons but most importantly - btcusd loves the 0.618-0.65 fib levels and I will show some examples with pictures below. And skip next paragraph if you are not into EW.
For my EW friends - lets start by saying that my previous 15m idea invalidated not only because it broke the potential little triangle but also because there was a three wavey move *C-D in the triangle in this chart) which could only be one of possible triangle A, start of a diagonal down waveA of Z or A of Y or whatever complexity it has, or a flat A. This impulsive break sets up a move that is too often a fractal in bitcoin. After long complex moves there goes one violant down and then algos kick and send it to the sky.
So this three wavey move invalidates a zigzag Y or Z because .. it is three waves obviously. It invalidated a flat because the retrace was not as deep as it has to be. So the move in question leaves us with only one possibility - this on the chart. Big triangle waveB.
A wave4 triangle is invalidated of course as I wrote in the previous idea - it is far too big both in time and price compared to the wave2.
So now excluding the EW, as I also wrote in the previous idea, if it invalidates - there is a target at 8500 and we should be patient. That is what happened and after the next bearish move that brings the price there, I am urging people to buy. Of course that is not a financial advice :D but.. BUY. I would even buy now but Im already long from way lower. There is the chance that it doesn't make one more swing because of a possible impatient market which also happens in bitcoin and leaves us scratching why the fifth wave is missing. I guess at this point I know bitcoin has way too much extended fifth waves and we think it is a third, but anyway.
So as traditionalists would call it - accumulation phase.
I am charting on bitmex because it has become a bit more technical in time and I am for a while now seeing micro fib targets on top of macro ones to the tick, which makes me think that the biggest algos are there.
I know for most people my charts are too colorful, too much lines or completely not understandable but this is a deep science for me and the precision in time and price is far too important and can not be pictured otherwise.
That's why I will post some more pictures below.
I hope you dig in those pictures because the amount of 61.8-65 fibs that kick this to one side is not even funny. If you look close all charts that I will post below, we have to the tick algo in fib price and fib time, a channel testing and targets above targets...
IMPORTANT! This setup is my own chart.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
First this is what I can come up with.
Second there are other counts that can play still valid.
Third No matter if Im wrong or right, TRADING IS A MATTER OF PROBABILITIES. WE GET STOPPED 4-5 TIMES OUT OF 10.
Sometimes you are wrong, sometimes you are right. Winning is discipline taking little losses and winning big when you get it right.
Sometimes low percentage probabilities happen and really often we get the count wrong.
I read a lot of hate to traders publishing so I wanted to say this. Don't rush labeling someone. We are here to help.
Good luck!
I will link below my 8h idea which is by far the most probable count in play right now but lets just start by bringing logic to this move on the 15m.
For those who don't understand EW lets just say that algorithmic activity potentially has the setup to bring this baby to the moon as of Monday. For various technical reasons but most importantly - btcusd loves the 0.618-0.65 fib levels and I will show some examples with pictures below. And skip next paragraph if you are not into EW.
For my EW friends - lets start by saying that my previous 15m idea invalidated not only because it broke the potential little triangle but also because there was a three wavey move *C-D in the triangle in this chart) which could only be one of possible triangle A, start of a diagonal down waveA of Z or A of Y or whatever complexity it has, or a flat A. This impulsive break sets up a move that is too often a fractal in bitcoin. After long complex moves there goes one violant down and then algos kick and send it to the sky.
So this three wavey move invalidates a zigzag Y or Z because .. it is three waves obviously. It invalidated a flat because the retrace was not as deep as it has to be. So the move in question leaves us with only one possibility - this on the chart. Big triangle waveB.
A wave4 triangle is invalidated of course as I wrote in the previous idea - it is far too big both in time and price compared to the wave2.
So now excluding the EW, as I also wrote in the previous idea, if it invalidates - there is a target at 8500 and we should be patient. That is what happened and after the next bearish move that brings the price there, I am urging people to buy. Of course that is not a financial advice :D but.. BUY. I would even buy now but Im already long from way lower. There is the chance that it doesn't make one more swing because of a possible impatient market which also happens in bitcoin and leaves us scratching why the fifth wave is missing. I guess at this point I know bitcoin has way too much extended fifth waves and we think it is a third, but anyway.
So as traditionalists would call it - accumulation phase.
I am charting on bitmex because it has become a bit more technical in time and I am for a while now seeing micro fib targets on top of macro ones to the tick, which makes me think that the biggest algos are there.
I know for most people my charts are too colorful, too much lines or completely not understandable but this is a deep science for me and the precision in time and price is far too important and can not be pictured otherwise.
That's why I will post some more pictures below.
I hope you dig in those pictures because the amount of 61.8-65 fibs that kick this to one side is not even funny. If you look close all charts that I will post below, we have to the tick algo in fib price and fib time, a channel testing and targets above targets...
IMPORTANT! This setup is my own chart.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
First this is what I can come up with.
Second there are other counts that can play still valid.
Third No matter if Im wrong or right, TRADING IS A MATTER OF PROBABILITIES. WE GET STOPPED 4-5 TIMES OUT OF 10.
Sometimes you are wrong, sometimes you are right. Winning is discipline taking little losses and winning big when you get it right.
Sometimes low percentage probabilities happen and really often we get the count wrong.
I read a lot of hate to traders publishing so I wanted to say this. Don't rush labeling someone. We are here to help.
Good luck!
Note
As I expected it may happen, another extended fifth or a failure. Count can be subjective but this fractal is playing in bitcoin again.Note
This fractal is brutal. Note
This is a generational buy my friends.To the moon and beyond.Note
Go Go Go!!!
Risk:Reward 22:1 and target is off the chart, 13885$ at mex.
Note
That 0.618 just kills it. It has to be anytime now that it blows upwards. Any minute now... Been waiting for days...Note
Note
This correction is very long and complex but we finally got that internal retracement and the vegas waves are about to cross (blue and orange crossing above red - vegas waves are EMA 144 169 and 233)
When we add the fact that tomorrow is Monday and usually the magic happens in Asia mornings we may finally get our waited longs
Note
I forgot to move the wave2 to the end, sorry :)Note
While that move was bad for longs, it is not the end.15% of all wave2 are below the 61.8 fib
Bitcoin often had deep 78% retraces in its history. The 78 holds it for now, but there is one last pivot below it for the second algorithmic target at the -0.618. If that doesn't hold, the whole sequence gets invalidated almost certainly and then the macro structure has to be counted very differently, which is not good for btc to say the least.
Note
We got it at 78% here and it dropped to a year waited algo target and still went up, so while it it stays internal we are ok, Bitcoin has done pretty wild things in the past including going back to 0.01$ in the mt gox hack.Note
As an elliottician and a crypto believer I still count this as 1-2-1-2 shooting for the moon until the end of the year, but if It goes below the 7000$ where we last got a perfect algo reaction, we may have to rethink this deeply. Drop below 7000$ kills the bulls major algorithm and then we have to hope for another 78% retrace to hold it which is bullish 1 out of 6 times and hope that it stays internal to the 3200$ move. Case becomes completely different.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.