19.04.2021

Apr 19, 2021

50k and 60k are the key levels. Everything else is noise at this point.

Four scenarios:
1. Acceptance above 60k.Bull trap above 60k.
2. Bull trap above 60k.
3. Bear trap below 50k
4. Acceptance below 50k.

Apr 19, 2021

Note

The crowded trade will obviously be long >60k and sell <50k.

As long as funding stays flat or negative, I imagine smart money to be long.

Apr 19, 2021

Note

My gut feeling is 50k next, but my brain says 60k until funding picks up.

Apr 19, 2021

Note

The crowded trade is obvious as stated above.

But selling >60k and buying <50k is where the edge is lies.

Money is made by discounting the obvious.

Apr 23, 2021

Note

Ask me if I hedged between 55-60k like the original plan was? Nope. Fell in love with the idea of longing to a higher area of liquidity (>60k) until funding picks up. Burnt.

Apr 23, 2021

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Once again my gut feeling is telling me to hedge everything at 49K, since this type of PA usually marks the top. But my brain tells me that is the crowded trade.

Apr 23, 2021

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The bearish thing is this is spot driven sell-off. We are at 48k and derivatives still haven't turned negative

Apr 23, 2021

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I hedged about 30% of my portfolio, I feel that's a must here to stay level-headed.

Apr 23, 2021

Note

Bearish re-test of 50k and funding still yet to go negative. Time to hedge more?