EPISODE 3/11: US TECH SECTOR-ELLIOTT WAVES+PARABOLIC MOVEMENT TA
Updated
Episode 3/11: US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis - 16th of July 2019
The Tech Sector has indeed outperformed almost all other sectors in the economy, since the 2009 financial collapse(approx. ~520% increase since the troughs of 2009).
However, with the new threats to global trade, the tech sector might be the first one to take the worse drop of all the sectors. As described by the chart, there are several indicators pointing towards that the end of the cycle(WAVE 5) might be nearing and a correction could be expected.
There are 3 key events that I see which will be necessary in determining the outcome and hence, become the cause of the next recession:
1. US-China Trade relations and overall Global Trade(Including EU/UK/Italy and other issues that are hindering trade)
2. Global Economic Slowdown in the Developing countries(Sentiment change)
3. The upcoming 2020 US Election(Geopolitical Risks)
I would not go into details regarding the potential effect of these events since they are yet to occur. Key technical note regarding the TA, is that BASE 2 which is the 2007-09 recession should've had a higher low, in which case there would have been no doubts that this is BASE 2. However, due to the Lehman Collapse the recession extended. Nevertheless, in my opinion I would still consider this drop as a BASE 2.
This is just a brief "free" and very detailed analysis. Perhaps in the future I might form a premium group, to whose members I will provide all the details of my research.
>>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>>
However, if you'd like to support me and learn more in the greatest of details, every thumbs up or follow is greatly appreciated!
-Step_Ahead_ofthemarket-
Previous episodes on the US Sectors:
EPISODE 1: FINANCIALS
EPISODE 2: ENERGY
Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references- contact me.
The Tech Sector has indeed outperformed almost all other sectors in the economy, since the 2009 financial collapse(approx. ~520% increase since the troughs of 2009).
However, with the new threats to global trade, the tech sector might be the first one to take the worse drop of all the sectors. As described by the chart, there are several indicators pointing towards that the end of the cycle(WAVE 5) might be nearing and a correction could be expected.
There are 3 key events that I see which will be necessary in determining the outcome and hence, become the cause of the next recession:
1. US-China Trade relations and overall Global Trade(Including EU/UK/Italy and other issues that are hindering trade)
2. Global Economic Slowdown in the Developing countries(Sentiment change)
3. The upcoming 2020 US Election(Geopolitical Risks)
I would not go into details regarding the potential effect of these events since they are yet to occur. Key technical note regarding the TA, is that BASE 2 which is the 2007-09 recession should've had a higher low, in which case there would have been no doubts that this is BASE 2. However, due to the Lehman Collapse the recession extended. Nevertheless, in my opinion I would still consider this drop as a BASE 2.
This is just a brief "free" and very detailed analysis. Perhaps in the future I might form a premium group, to whose members I will provide all the details of my research.
>>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>>
However, if you'd like to support me and learn more in the greatest of details, every thumbs up or follow is greatly appreciated!
-Step_Ahead_ofthemarket-
Previous episodes on the US Sectors:
EPISODE 1: FINANCIALS
EPISODE 2: ENERGY
Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references- contact me.
Note
XLK Quarterly. Pointing towards a continuation of the bullish run. However, the huge selloff that occured end of 2018, should not be forgotten and it should serve as a warning.
-Step_Ahead_ofthemarket-
Note
As the market was nearing to a potential sell-off, the unexpected rate cut from the FED, saved the market. This can be seen by this weekly RSI cross.
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