Watch Out For XLM!

Dec 5, 2018

Stellar will always be one of my favorite coins, but right now, it's on the verge of breaking down. Watch this 3500-3600 area. If we go below, there are some fairly low targets, especially in USD value. XLM has made it to the top 4, which is promising, but it's starting to lose some steam. We really need to see a bounce now in order to continue the bullish trend against Bitcoin. I hold a fairly large position in this coin, so it would be unfortunate to see it drop further, but it's a very real possibility.

We have a potential long opportunity here with a buy in point between 3500 and 3600 for XLMBTC, with targets upwards for 4000. However, a stop loss is recommended, as we can get a pretty severe breakdown (look what happened with EOS recently, for instance). I'd set a stop below 3500, depending on your risk tolerance.

As you can see, on the XLMUSD chart, we are right at a yearly support zone. If this breaks, we have support in the green zones. Resistance is around 18 cents, and we have recently failed to get back above it, which is pretty bearish.


However, a bullish case can be made if this bullish divergence plays out on both the USD and BTC charts:


Resistance:
3900
4000
4500
4700
5000

Support Levels to Watch:
3540
3500
3300
3000
2900
2100
1800
1300

This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.

Previous XLM chart:

Dec 6, 2018

Note

Broke down below 3500, but Bitcoin is attempting to begin another short squeeze. if this actually follows through, this breakdown was likely a bear trap. TRX broke down from support recently but then made a huge rally to get back above it. XLM can do the same here. The RSI is getting pretty oversold, especially on lower timeframes. However, if this bounce can't sustain, XLM will probably be headed a bit lower. Hard to say though, since XLM has proven to be one of the most in demand alts this year. This is why I'm holding most of my stack off the exchanges. Happy to buy a little more if it gets really low, or sell what I have on the exchange if necessary.

Dec 6, 2018

Note

Just like that, back above USD support as well. Good long opportunity with stops at recent lows near 3400, if one were trading this.

Dec 6, 2018

Note

A lot of margin traders probably getting absolutely rekt in this current market. Especially on that quick ETH dip to $95.

Dec 6, 2018

Note

Trading right now is totally nuts. Lots of fake moves. The market really needs to have a sustained bounce now to avoid another catastrophic drop though, that's for sure. XLM needs to hold back above 3500 and the $0.135 zone. It't good that we're seeing some large buys here though.

Dec 6, 2018

Note

Continued weakness. Now down in the 12 cent zone, below yearly support. Did say this was a strong possibility. XLM hasn't broken down much further on its BTC ratio, which is the only silver lining here. Some major buys are going on, but they keep getting sold. This is a sign of accumulation, but that the market is not quite ready to go up yet. If big players have been waiting to enter, this is likely a tasty zone for them. Once they buy enough, they will hold the majority of the supply, and there won't be enough sellers to suppress the price anymore. When this happens is anyone's guess, but it feels like we're close. I think that by the end of January we should have at least one strong rebound.

Dec 7, 2018

Note

We've clearly broken down. Now that we're in the 10 cents area, this is a good place for a potential bounce. Let's see how this unfolds, as we should have some decent support between here and 7 cents.

Dec 9, 2018

Note

Since we've reached a number of support levels for major alts (ETH at $80, NANO at $0.80, NEO at $5, etc.), we've seen some buying action as expected. We could be in the process of forming a mid-term market bottom here. As per my market analysis (on my XRPBTC chart) we should see 3K hold for a while until we either start a bull run EVENTUALLY from here or break down further to $1.8 or 1.2K.

Dec 10, 2018

Note

The market is sliding a little bit this morning, and XLM is heading back to the 3200/3300 support, but there's been some pretty decent buying in this area. It's possible that XLM pulls a TRX and rallies back above its triangle support. This would mean a bullish target around the green "X." We'd need a push back above the 3560 for this to happen. On the other hand, the mid term bearish target remains at 2960 upon a breakdown of 3200. Support in orange and resistances in pink:

Dec 14, 2018

Note

Approaching my first bearish target at the red X. We're also below the 10 cent zone, which is a pretty bad sign. The next supports are at 7 and 4 cents respectively. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see a substantial bounce soon. How it performs on the next bounce might dictate how I structure my portfolio to ride out the rest of this bear market.

Dec 14, 2018

Note

As you can see, we're currently in a support zone (USD chart), and if we break below this area, it's straight down into the 4-5 cent zone. This is now nearly below what I expected to be the absolute bottom for XLM (around 10 cents). Really not looking good.

Dec 14, 2018

Note

One can go long in this 2900 zone with a stop obviously below the most recent low (around 2920-30). We're still in the scary falling wedge, but we should break out of it soon. Here are some targets:
BEARISH:
2930
2850
2550
2100
1800
1300

BULLISH
3300
3500
4000+ (if we break back above 3600)

Dec 15, 2018

Note

Made it to my first bearish target, but still no sign of a bounce. Not looking good for XLM. I warned you guys about this breakdown! We can go all the way to 1300 pretty easily, but we should have a bounce soon. If not now, then once we get to the 2500-2600 area, we have some more support. The target for a bounce can be as high as 3200, at previous support.

Dec 15, 2018

Note

This is a potential bounce area as well. We are teetering on the lower edge of the falling wedge here:

Dec 17, 2018

Note

9-10 Cents has held on the USD chart for now. Looks like we may be seeing the beginning of a market wide relief rally. We're also proving no direct correlation with the stock market, since they've begun their day in the red, while crypto is the opposite so far. If XLM can get back above 3500 and 13 cents, it's likely the bottom is in, at least for the mid-term. Can't say about after January.
This is my last update for a couple weeks since I'm going away. See you all in 2019!
-Victor Cobra

Dec 24, 2018

Note

We're already back above 13 cents after bottoming around 9. This is a good sign that we have a lot of buyers still in the market. We're back above two previous support zones (13 and 11 cents), as well as the 3200, which was BTC support. It almost looks like the entire market is ready to explode, but we won't be able to confirm it until we see even larger dojis forming on the monthly charts for most cryptos. Bitcoin needs to get back above its broken log trend line for starters, and then it needs to break 5K and 6K. Exciting times ahead! Indicators were pretty strong that 3.2K was a substantial bottom (not necessarily THE bottom, but that's not the point of TA). Happy holidays everyone!