Weekly Outlook Thanksgiving Bullish Continuation Off Support

3 days ago

Now that Monday and Tuesday have traded, I can have a better idea of what the market is doing. By allowing Monday (Opening Range) and Tuesday (Initial Balance) to trade, you can see the type of weekly template forming. By marking the opening price of the weekly candle in Cyan blue, you can better see if the week will be bearish, bullish or a doji based on how price trades around it.

Because this week gapped up and Tuesday failed to touch the weekly open, this tells me this is (with 85% certainty) a bullish continuation weekly candle. Based on this information, I will be looking for a pullback and a range expansion target for the week of 1 times Monday, Tuesday's High/Low




Monday Tuesday Opening Range/Initial Balance Range Expansion Target Technique:

2 days ago

Trade active

I am Long at 44,835 with only a 50 tick stop. I entered in 30 minutes before the close of the day. My only issue right now is, what do I target? I think for now, I will set a 5 to 1. This will be just before the pivot high.

2 days ago

Note

My thought process for this trade.

The low of that bull hammer candle did not break. Equal low.
Three pushes into that low
A gap to the upside
Bullish weekly candle potential
Three pushes into the 33% retracement of the Monday, Tuesday Opening Range Initial Balance.

2 days ago

Trade closed manually

So, this week and this trade is not behaving how I expected it would and ended up closing out of it for a small profit. It is looking like a mean reversion week. Price is meandering around a mean and is not really going anywhere. I am not always right and will gladly admit when I'm wrong. My style of trading is to be ruthless with my stops. I will take my 1R loss and reenter again if another set up happens. This trade just so happened to give me 2R before I cut it.

My plan for Friday is to play the lows back to the highs for mean reversion Range style.

2 days ago

Note

In fact, when writing this prior post, I saw a beautiful double top pattern down to the lows for a mean reversion play. This is a daytrade and am only looking for my base hit of 115 ticks.

I am filled short at 44,952
Stop at 45,002 50 ticks
Target at 44,837 115 ticks

2 days ago

Note

yesterday

Note

Unfortunate that I took a small loss by a few ticks. Price did what I was looking for, it just happened to go up first. Part of trading. I will have losses.