December Monthly Template Gameplan Reversal Pattern

Nov 30, 2024

Looking at the weekly chart, a very key reversal signal is forming. After the breakout in August, the market has performed three pauses and now we are on push 2 of the 1 2 3 engulfment pattern. This leads me to believe that the first week of December will be the 3 of the 1 2 3 pushes. If this is the case, then the second week should either be a doji or the confirmation engulfment. The measured move of the first leg takes price up to 45,760. Like I said in a prior post, the election weekly candle is the largest candle on the chart, and it takes place at the highs, a key indicator of an exhaustion candle. The only way to confirm this is with the engulfment candle.



On the 8 Hour chart for more detail



I believe the price action I have highlighted in the red box is just the miniature version of the same pattern that is playing out on the weekly. This leads me to believe that a large correction is coming, and price will return back to 38,500




My upcoming weekly gameplan for intraday is to use that pin hammer on Tuesday, November 26th as major support area. It depends on how price opens up and trades on Monday. Do they go down first? Because this week is NFP on Friday, this is a weekly candle with major red news.

Dec 2, 2024

Note

Price is on the frontside of the push phase bullish with a target of 45,750. Then another 4% correction back into support. Intraday, I will be looking for Longs in this small channel. Then I will be looking for sells back into that support area.

Dec 3, 2024

Trade closed manually

So far Monday has played out perfectly as a downish day into support levels. My two trades today were one in Asia and one in NY.
The Asian trade I used a 30 tick stop and was going for an 80 tick target. I was holding that trade for hours into London session and saw price reversing before hitting my target. I manually closed it because I recognized it was a failing trade and would hit my stop. Got 1 to 1 out of that one.

The NY trade I bought a false break reversal buy after a sharp move down into a pivot low and a doji bar. I used 50 tick stop and 115 tick target. Same thing again. Price was almost getting to target and was rolling over. I closed it manually after the reversal bar after it failed to hit target. Got 1.6 to 1 out of this one.

Dec 3, 2024

Note

I bought what I hope is the low after that violent smash down into my support levels. It lined up with my channel, the pivot low and support. If my stop holds then I will target 360 ticks or just prior to the pivot high of 45,140

I am Long at 44,771
Stop 50 ticks at 44,721
Target 360 ticks at 45,131

Dec 3, 2024

Note

I took a small 1R loss on that trade. I was a bit tad early. I was able to re enter on this small doji a few moments later. So far it is bouncing where it was supposed to be bouncing. That enormous candle right at the close was honestly quite large and a fake out, stop run.