🧭 5Y T-Note Futures – Liquidity Pivot Ahead of Key Macro Prints
VolanX Protocol | SMC Alignment | Macro Positioning Setup
🗓️ July 19, 2025 | 1D TF | Symbol: ZFU2025 | DSS Score: Long Bias
🔍 Smart Money Structure Breakdown
5Y T-Note is consolidating between discount and equilibrium zones with clear evidence of institutional rebalancing:
✅ CHoCH → BOS confirmed, with price reclaiming equilibrium near 108’07
📍 Previous sweep of discount zone → buyers defended strong low
🟥 Targeting premium inefficiency zone between 109’16 – 110’16
👁️ Watch for internal BOS + liquidity raid to validate leg 2 of upward structure
🌐 Macro Catalysts Driving this Trade
Yield Curve Re-steepening (5Y–30Y)
→ Traders pricing in end of hiking cycle; demand shifts toward medium duration bonds.
Fed Policy Outlook (September FOMC)
→ CME FedWatch: Odds of rate cut rise above 40% for Sept.
→ 5Y notes become favored rate-sensitive vehicle for directional plays.
Labor Market Softening
→ Non-farm payrolls revisions and lower JOLTS suggest wage pressure easing.
→ Bond bulls rotating into belly of curve.
Options Flow
→ Institutional OI building near 108’00–108’16 strikes; defensive rotation aligning with macro risk-off positioning.
🎯 WaverVanir VolanX Trading Plan
Element Value
Entry Zone 107’28 – 108’08 (current)
Stop Loss Below 107’04 (structure invalidation)
TP1 109’16 (Premium Low)
TP2 110’12 (FVG closure)
TP3 (Stretch) 111’00 (mid-2024 inefficiency)
📌 Risk Management
Position Sizing: Max 1.5% risk allocation
Trigger: Long bias only if price reclaims 108’12 with volume
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~3.6R on TP2
VolanX DSS Protocol: High Probability Zone activated if macro catalyst (rate cut) is confirmed by next CPI/FOMC
🧠 WaverVanir Narrative Bias
“As macro stress builds and the Fed nears its pivot point, duration exposure becomes the silent alpha. 5Y notes offer a clean risk/reward entry into the evolving disinflation thesis.”
🔺#WaverVanir #VolanXProtocol #5YNote #ZFU2025 #BondFutures #FOMCTrade #SMC #SmartMoneyConcepts #RateCut #MacroCatalyst #YieldCurve #DSS #InstitutionalSetup #RiskManagement #TradingStrategy
VolanX Protocol | SMC Alignment | Macro Positioning Setup
🗓️ July 19, 2025 | 1D TF | Symbol: ZFU2025 | DSS Score: Long Bias
🔍 Smart Money Structure Breakdown
5Y T-Note is consolidating between discount and equilibrium zones with clear evidence of institutional rebalancing:
✅ CHoCH → BOS confirmed, with price reclaiming equilibrium near 108’07
📍 Previous sweep of discount zone → buyers defended strong low
🟥 Targeting premium inefficiency zone between 109’16 – 110’16
👁️ Watch for internal BOS + liquidity raid to validate leg 2 of upward structure
🌐 Macro Catalysts Driving this Trade
Yield Curve Re-steepening (5Y–30Y)
→ Traders pricing in end of hiking cycle; demand shifts toward medium duration bonds.
Fed Policy Outlook (September FOMC)
→ CME FedWatch: Odds of rate cut rise above 40% for Sept.
→ 5Y notes become favored rate-sensitive vehicle for directional plays.
Labor Market Softening
→ Non-farm payrolls revisions and lower JOLTS suggest wage pressure easing.
→ Bond bulls rotating into belly of curve.
Options Flow
→ Institutional OI building near 108’00–108’16 strikes; defensive rotation aligning with macro risk-off positioning.
🎯 WaverVanir VolanX Trading Plan
Element Value
Entry Zone 107’28 – 108’08 (current)
Stop Loss Below 107’04 (structure invalidation)
TP1 109’16 (Premium Low)
TP2 110’12 (FVG closure)
TP3 (Stretch) 111’00 (mid-2024 inefficiency)
📌 Risk Management
Position Sizing: Max 1.5% risk allocation
Trigger: Long bias only if price reclaims 108’12 with volume
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~3.6R on TP2
VolanX DSS Protocol: High Probability Zone activated if macro catalyst (rate cut) is confirmed by next CPI/FOMC
🧠 WaverVanir Narrative Bias
“As macro stress builds and the Fed nears its pivot point, duration exposure becomes the silent alpha. 5Y notes offer a clean risk/reward entry into the evolving disinflation thesis.”
🔺#WaverVanir #VolanXProtocol #5YNote #ZFU2025 #BondFutures #FOMCTrade #SMC #SmartMoneyConcepts #RateCut #MacroCatalyst #YieldCurve #DSS #InstitutionalSetup #RiskManagement #TradingStrategy
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.