Long
Update for Mid Term Timeframes
Just a quick update.
Referring back to my observation in my first publication of this series, I stated that I expected that, in the 6d timeframe that the Green MA was likely to go out to the side allowing the White Energy to fall below. This happened and the Green MA is higher than the White Energy in this timeframe. This timeframe has as a result turned bullish, we can see this is being reflected by the price action going up. I also stated my expectation that the Bollinger Bands would expand because the Blue LSMA was about to cross the 50 level. The Blue LSMA is now at 58.5 and the Bollinger Bands are expanding. As one can see in the candle at 05th June, the price action hit the upper red BB. Because of the expansion of the BB we can expect the price action to go significantly higher.
Also note that based on the Green being higher than the Energy in all the near term timeframes (1d, 2d, 3d & 4d) as well as this 6d we can conclude that the indicators are showing bullish market sentiment for this pair.
It is also worth noting that in the 6d, our first pressure dot has appeared. On 11th June, the White Energy crossed below zero on the 4th pressure dot. This was reflected by our first red candle.
If we look at the mid term group of timeframes (3d, 6d, 9d & 12d) we can see the following:
In the 3d & 6d the Green is higher than the White Energy & the Blue LSMA is above 50. The red RSI has closed above 56 in all these timeframes. However the White Energy is higher than the Green in the 9d & 12d. And the Bollinger Bands are expanding.
It is my opinion that in all these timeframes we can expect a continuation of upward pressure. It is also possible based on the lower timeframes for the green to go out to the side and the White Energy to fall below.
Based on a quick visual trajectory of the red upper BB in the 6d I wouldn't be surprised to see a target of 400-450 sats being achieved and we could wick up much higher.
My expectations for the mid term are dependent on further development of 9d & 12d timeframes.
I dont have time right now but if I get a chance I will try and provide some potential fib targets.
Everything expressed in these publications represents my opinion only and should not be considered as financial advice.
I hope you guys all had a good Christmas
If you found value in these publications please hit the like button.
Referring back to my observation in my first publication of this series, I stated that I expected that, in the 6d timeframe that the Green MA was likely to go out to the side allowing the White Energy to fall below. This happened and the Green MA is higher than the White Energy in this timeframe. This timeframe has as a result turned bullish, we can see this is being reflected by the price action going up. I also stated my expectation that the Bollinger Bands would expand because the Blue LSMA was about to cross the 50 level. The Blue LSMA is now at 58.5 and the Bollinger Bands are expanding. As one can see in the candle at 05th June, the price action hit the upper red BB. Because of the expansion of the BB we can expect the price action to go significantly higher.
Also note that based on the Green being higher than the Energy in all the near term timeframes (1d, 2d, 3d & 4d) as well as this 6d we can conclude that the indicators are showing bullish market sentiment for this pair.
It is also worth noting that in the 6d, our first pressure dot has appeared. On 11th June, the White Energy crossed below zero on the 4th pressure dot. This was reflected by our first red candle.
If we look at the mid term group of timeframes (3d, 6d, 9d & 12d) we can see the following:
In the 3d & 6d the Green is higher than the White Energy & the Blue LSMA is above 50. The red RSI has closed above 56 in all these timeframes. However the White Energy is higher than the Green in the 9d & 12d. And the Bollinger Bands are expanding.
It is my opinion that in all these timeframes we can expect a continuation of upward pressure. It is also possible based on the lower timeframes for the green to go out to the side and the White Energy to fall below.
Based on a quick visual trajectory of the red upper BB in the 6d I wouldn't be surprised to see a target of 400-450 sats being achieved and we could wick up much higher.
My expectations for the mid term are dependent on further development of 9d & 12d timeframes.
I dont have time right now but if I get a chance I will try and provide some potential fib targets.
Everything expressed in these publications represents my opinion only and should not be considered as financial advice.
I hope you guys all had a good Christmas
If you found value in these publications please hit the like button.
Note
I just want to clarify something here.I have published this set of analyses in the ZILBTC pair because of my view that ZIL would outperform BTC. It was an idea for accumulation from the BTC pair. This is not a recommendation to trade this pair, there will be greater volatility for trading the USD pair.
It is also worth considering that BTC is in price discovery mode and although we can see an indication of continued upward pressure there is an increased element of unpredictability.
If you are trading this market now I recommend risk management.
Good luck and happy trading
Note
It is my opinion that the current dip is due to the BTC pump and is just a short term dip rather than a reversal to sustained downward pressure. Based on what I can see in the longer timeframes my opinion on mid term timeframes remains unchanged.Note
We could be seeing a btc correction over the next few days to a week, my wife is away looking after her dad so I'm looking after our son and wont be able to provide too many updates - I'll try and update as much as possible.. But as I said, if you are trading at this point use risk management...Note
Near term & mid term timeframes still indicate upward pressure.Short term timeframes are showing downward pressure which is reflected by the price action. If we look at the 3h, 6h & 12h we can see that the Red RSI has made contact with the green as the green is going down. As we can see in the 3h & 6h the White Energy crossed below 50 on the next candle which indicates a period of downward pressure. In the 12h, if this candle closes in 4 hours with the red making contact with the Green as it is currently, the White Energy is likely to cross below 50, further confirming downward pressure.
Because of what I see in the near and mid term timeframes, in my opinion this will be a short interlude rather than a reversal to sustained downward pressure.
However, the 90m & 3h show a possibility of closing with the Red RSI making contact with the Green MA as the Green is rising.
As the Red RSI is below 50 in the 90m, we are currently in a race.
In order for us to see a reversal back to upward pressure we must close in the 90m in 1 hour with the White Energy above 50 before the Red RSI crosses below 50 in the 3h. We then ignore the White Energy in the 90m and concentrate on the White Energy in the 3h etc. We need to see this resumption to upward pressure cascade from the lower timeframes up.
As I said, it is my opinion that we will see a resumption to sustained upward pressure as indicated in the higher timeframes.
Hopefully the upper white BB will continue to act as support.
One must bear in mind though, that TA is a game of probabilities, we must stack the odds in our favour by whatever means possible.
Happy trading
aBL
Note
Just a very quick one - away for most of the day.We can see in the 12h that the Red RSI has made contact with the green as the green is falling and the White Energy has crossed below 50.
In the daily the Red RSI has also made contact with the green while the green is falling, this indicates that the White Energy is likely to cross below 50 on the next daily candle in 16h. I am not able to micro monitor this.
Zil's behaviour will be influenced by BTC which has been showing signs of downward pressure and we seem to be near the top of the current BTC move.
If you are trading this, I would consider a TP and risk management at this point.
Personally this is a long term hold for me and cannot withdraw from my stake for a couple of weeks in any case.
Good luck
aBL
Note
Sorry I forgot to mention - indication that the White Energy will cross below 50 is dependent on the daily candle CLOSING while the Red RSI is making contact with the Green as it is falling. This candle closes in just over 6 hours.We currently still have upward pressure in the daily until the White Energy crosses below 50. See chart
Note
We did not close on the daily with the Red RSI making contact with the Geen as it descended. We are still looking at upward pressure until the White Energy crosses below 50. So for now - in the balance of probability, we can expect sideways price action at worst - upward at best.Note
Daily candle will close in about 3.5 hours.If Red RSI is still making contact with Green MA when it closes we will are likely to see a period of downward pressure. Mid term timeframes still showing upward pressure. This is confirmed by what we see in BTCUSD...
Note
In the daily we did close with the Red RSI making contact with the Green as it descended. As a result, the White Energy crossed below 50 indicating downward pressure. This is also now the position in the 2d. In the 3d the Red RSI is also making contact with the Green as it descends, if we close in 37 hours like this we will also be looking at downward pressure in the 3d.In the 3d & 6d the Green is higher than the White Energy which is a good sign. In the 6d we see upward pressure until the White Energy falls below 80-85 at which point we need to look at lower timeframes.
So when will we see a reversal and resumption to sustained upward pressure?
We are currently in "race" between the White Energy in the 6h & the Red RSI in the 12h. In order to see a reversal to upward pressure we need to see the White Energy in the 6h close above 50 before the Red RSI in the 12h crosses below 50.
If the Red RSI wins the Race, we ignore the White Energy in the 6h and concentrate on the White Energy in the 12h - we would then be in a race between the 12h and 24h etc.
Note
The Red RSI in the 12h crossed below 50 before the White Energy in the 6h closed above 50. Therefor the Red RSI in the 12h won the race. So we concentrate on the White Energy in the 12h we need this to close above 50 before the Red RSI in the 24h crosses below 50 for a chance of resumption of upward pressure.The Red RSI in the 2D has closed while the Green falls and the White Energy has crossed below 50.
As all the candles reset on 1st January, there is 8h left on 1d, 2d, 3d & 4d candles. The Red RSI is making contact with the Green as it falls in the 3d & the 4d, if we close in 8 hours, this further confirms continuation of downward pressure in these timeframes.
So one step at a time.
We need the White Energy to win the Race in the 12h over the Red RSI in the 24h for a chance to see the beginning of a reversal to upward pressure.
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