Analysis techniques – Soybean Oil Futures (Dec 2025)

Analysis techniques – Soybean Oil Futures (Dec 2025)
Date: 03/10/2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: ZLZ25

1. Trend Overview and Price Structure
Soybean oil (Dec 2025) closed at 50.41 cents/pound (+0.16%), consolidating within a tight range of 49.5 – 50.5. After a prolonged decline since July, the market is forming a temporary base but remains under bearish pressure. Current structure suggests indecision, awaiting a breakout from the consolidation box.

2. Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 50.5 – 53.7 – 56.9
Support: 49.0 – 46.5 – 41.8

3. Detailed Technical Analysis
Short-term trend: Sideways consolidation in 49.5 – 50.5; breakout will set next direction.
Volume: Average trading volume, limited new flows.
Wave structure: The prior bearish wave is stalling; a corrective rebound could emerge if 50.5 is breached.
Confirmation signals: A close above 50.5 opens upside toward 53.7 – 56.9; a break below 49 targets 46.5 – 41.8.

4. VNC View
Short term, soybean oil is in a fragile balance. A breakout from 49.5 – 50.5 range will provide a clear trading signal. Medium term, global vegetable oil supply (palm, sunflower) exerts strong competition, limiting sustainable rallies unless supported by crude oil or biodiesel demand.

5. Suggested Technical Strategies
Long Setup (on breakout):
Entry: 50.6 – 51.0
TP: 53.7 – 56.9
SL: 49.5
Probability: 60%

Short Setup (on breakdown):
Entry: 48.8 – 49.0
TP: 46.5 – 41.8
SL: 50.5
Probability: 55%

6. Corporate Hedging Guidance
Edible oil producers: May hedge raw material costs near 49 – 50.
Biodiesel industry: Watch 50.5 breakout; increase hedging if confirmed.
Exporters: Favor partial selling near 53.7 – 56.9 during rallies to avoid downside risks toward 46 – 42.