Rate hikes are off the table (for now)

Nov 26, 2021

We talk alot about rate hike expectations. While the fed funds future markets have aggressively priced in a rate hike scenario for June over the last days, those expectations have completely collapsed today. The new variant, no matter how game changing it really is, will give the Fed certainly much more wiggle room to delay any hikes. So despite the patellar reflex market reaction today, markets could interpret this as "bullish" if you will. Best case scenario for the Fed would be a virus situation that is safe enough to be considered "under control" (aka no lockdowns/travel restrictions), but on the other hand side prominent enough to dial up the uncertainty regarding the future growth/inflation path.