Pattern Identification by Considering Safety in Analysis!Pattern Identification on any Timeframe!
Importance of the Factor of Safety in Projected Target To avoid the Losses!
How to identify Patterns and Project the Target on the chart!
I have selected NVDA weekly chart for Technical Analysis. Here the Head and Shoulder pattern formed on the Top. We can see the previous trend of NVDA was an Uptrend so the probability of high that trend will get reversed after the neckline breakdown and the price has given breakdown to the neckline and it went down.
I have projected the downside target by projecting the head to neckline length below the neckline. But we all know that, the things which are given in a theory doesn't work 100% all the time. So to avoid the buffer between Theory and Practical I have projected the line parallel to the neckline from the projected taregt so we should exit our position without waiting for the Theoretical projected target. This is my personal view to exit from our existing position without waiting till the end. Most of the time what happens is price reversed before our projected target. That's the reason i am sahring this Educational Idea to achieve maximum profit by considering Factor of Safety or You can exit your trade by achieving 80% - 90% of your projected profit.
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Headandshouldersformation
Trading Reverse Head & Shoulder PatternWhat is Reverse head & shoulder ?
Ans:- The Reverse Head and Shoulders is a bullish reversal pattern that is formed in the stock market when an asset experiences a decline, followed by a moderate recovery, then another decline to a lower level, another recovery to near the original decline, and finally another decline to a level that is lower than the previous decline. The pattern is considered complete when the price rises above the neckline, which is the line connecting the highs of the two recoveries.
The pattern is named after its visual appearance, which resembles the human head and shoulders, but in reverse. The three troughs form the shoulders and the head, while the neckline serves as the confirmation point for a reversal. The height of the pattern can be used to estimate the potential upside for the asset once the reversal is confirmed.
The Reverse Head and Shoulders pattern is often seen as a positive sign for the market, indicating a potential end to the downtrend and a shift towards upward momentum. However, it is important to consider other factors such as market sentiment before making a trade based on this pattern.
Now how to trade Reverse Head & shoulder pattern?
Ans:- To trade this pattern we should follow:-
Identifying the pattern: To trade the Reverse Head and Shoulders pattern, you first need to identify it on a stock chart. Look for three troughs followed by a neckline that connects the highs of the two recoveries.
Confirming the pattern: Once the pattern is identified, you need to confirm it by waiting for the price to rise above the neckline. This is considered the confirmation point and signals the start of a potential upward trend.
Setting a target price: The height of the pattern can be used to estimate the potential upside for the asset. Measure the distance between the neckline and the lowest trough and add it to the neckline to determine a target price.
Placing a trade: Once the pattern is confirmed and the target price is set, you can place a long (buy) trade. It is recommended to use a stop loss order to protect your trade in case the pattern does not play out as expected.
Monitoring the trade: After placing the trade, it is important to monitor the stock price and adjust your stop loss if necessary. Close the trade once the target price is reached or if the stock price drops below the neckline, indicating a potential reversal.
It is important to keep in mind that no single pattern or indicator can guarantee success in the stock market. It is also recommended to consider other factors such as market sentiment and technical indicators before making a trade based on the Reverse Head and Shoulders pattern.
Pros:
Sign of a potential trend reversal: The Reverse Head and Shoulders pattern is often seen as a positive sign for the market, indicating a potential end to the downtrend and a shift towards upward momentum.
Estimation of potential upside: The height of the pattern can be used to estimate the potential upside for the asset, allowing traders to set realistic targets and determine their risk-reward ratio.
Relatively easy to identify: The Reverse Head and Shoulders pattern is relatively easy to identify and does not require complex analysis, making it accessible to traders of all levels.
Con:
No guarantee of success: No single pattern or indicator can guarantee success in the stock market, and the Reverse Head and Shoulders pattern is no exception. The pattern can be disrupted by external factors such as market sentiment, economic data releases, and geopolitical events.
False signals: The pattern is not always reliable, and false signals can occur if the price does not rise above the neckline or if the trend does not continue as expected.
Need for confirmation: The pattern is not considered complete until the price rises above the neckline, and traders must wait for this confirmation point before entering a trade. This can lead to missed opportunities or increased risk if the pattern does not play out as expected.
In conclusion, The Reverse Head and Shoulders pattern is a bullish reversal pattern in the stock market that is formed by a series of declines and recoveries and, but it should not be relied upon exclusively. It is important to consider other factors and to always manage risk when trading based on this pattern.
CIPLA Head & Shoulders pattern in formation?CIPLA is in the process of forming a Head and Shoulders pattern on the Daily chart. The left Shoulder and the Head are already complete we are possibly around the right Shoulder. If true, price can retrace to the baseline at 880.
Trading here can be risky as we are in the middle of pattern formation and it may be invalidated at any point above right Shoulder. Only risky traders may enter short with stop above the right Shoulder. Otherwise better to let the pattern form completely and place trades then.