5 Important Lessons to Learn From the MarketsYou Can Never Outsmart the Market
Detailed analysis 🧐and strategies are not enough to survive in the market. There are several other economic or geo-political factors that may influence the movement of the market. If market is flying higher due to positive factors, there is no point in going reverse and shorting stocks or indices. Conversely if the market is going down, its good to wait and watch rather than going all in. A popular saying that mostly works in the markets is that a trend🚀 may last longer than you can expect.
Its Stock Market, Not Casino
A few elements like risk management, position management, diversification, research etc. differentiate the Markets from Casino🤑. However, most new traders enter the market with a dream of overnight richness. Social media influencers add fuel to this fire and soon this fire🔥evaporates the entire capital of new traders. One needs to realize that the stock market is a business which will develop and grow gradually.
Stock Market as Primary or Secondary Source of Income?
People from mediocre business or salary class come to the market, make some money with beginner’s luck, become confident, keep increasing capital and become more and more confident😵. Ultimately, they start thinking of quitting their job or ignoring their business. But finally, the dooms days follow, and they start losing and losing till they lose it all. One may think of stock market as a primary source of income if one is profitable for at least a year (3 years would be good though🤔). Secondary sources of income are must because all traders lose in their initial phase. In fact, keep the market as a secondary source for 1-3 years.
Stock Tips Will Burn Your Fingers
Relying on stock tips from friends, news sources, or social media can be risky. Most tips are randomly picked without any research. Blindly following them without conducting your own research would lead to poor investment decisions and must financial losses. Most people have time⏳ constraints, but they must first learn the market nuances by using small capital and making small losses. Improve their knowledge for at least 3-6months and then go for some reliable advisory service. Do your own research on their tips rather than blind👩🦯 faith.
Your Portfolio May Lag in a Bullish Market
Rising market would not always lead to rise in your portfolio. Your portfolio performance may still be stagnant👎 even when the market is up by 15%👍. It all depends upon the performance of your stocks. Its always good to keep blue-chip or good midcap stocks in your portfolio. Generally, they will perform in-line with the indices. Investing in penny stock hoping for a lottery might be highly disappointing and may lead to further worst decisions in future. Self-education📕 is the best investment.
I hope this small effort would help some new traders.
All views are personal.
Keep boosting 🚀for more educational content in future.
Stockmarkets
Stock Market AnimalsThe stock market animals roam the financial landscape, representing optimism or pessimism. These animal metaphors capture the sentiment and beliefs behind the market participants who often try to outsmart each other through their edge in the market.
Here is a list of 7 most popular animal metaphors in the stock market. Maybe it can help some traders to look at themselves in the mirror.
🐮Bulls🐮
Its true that at some point everybody would have been a bull in the stock market but here we are talking about the hardcore bulls who are quintessential symbol of rising market. They never go short on the market and make money from the escalating prices of the stocks. This is because they are always overtly positive about the economy and the companies in which they invest. Undoubtedly, bulls are responsible for the buying pressure in the market.
🐻Bears🐻
Needless to say, bears are exactly the opposite of bulls. They never go long and make money from falling stock prices. Their pessimistic and cautionary view about the markets glue them to their short positions. Thus, bears keep on creating selling pressure in the markets.
🐕Wolf🐕
Wolves are neither bulls nor bears but at the same time they are the both. Wolves are shrewd animals who always seek profit making opportunities on both sides of the market. Due to their aggressive trading they quickly adapt to the changing market conditions. They are able to take advantage of momentum, volatility and short-term price discrepancies. They tend to quietly wait for opportunities rather than hopping on to them.
🐢Turtle🐢
Turtles by their very nature believe in slow money-making ideology. They are the most patient ones among all the other categories. Generally, they marry their investments with a longer-term perspective. They take stock splits, bonuses and pocket dividends to make money. Turtles are steady buyers as well as steady sellers.
🐰Rabbit🐰
Rabbits are the most popular trading creatures. They are Intraday hoppers who trade in both the directions. They may be bullish at 10am and bearish at 10:05am. They believe in small but quick money-making ideology. Characterized as least patient among all the other types of market participants, they are just the opposite of turtles. Generally, they are pushed by the market sentiment to take a large number of trades during the day. However, they square off all profit/loss making positions before market close. They don’t restraint themselves from using a whole lot of indicators and strategies to make buy and sell decisions. Unfortunately, most rabbits lose money in the market.
🐔Chicken🐔
They are risk-averse creatures who believe in preserving their capital. Market volatility and momentum are not their cup of tea. They invariably take small risk and make smaller money. A small price fluctuation, on either side, may throw them out of the trade.
🦈Shark🦈
Sharks are the market manipulators. With their exceptional potential to drive or hold the prices to certain levels, they look for opportunities to trap weak traders on the wrong side of the market and exploit their fear or greed. Trading pools, large traders and prop firms etc. fall into this category. What makes them different from the rest of the market participants is their access to more accurate market data and mammoth sized Gigabucks at their disposal.
I would not ask your (not so unpredictable) type but would say that there is always room for improvement.
It just needs :
⚡Realization on your part to recognize yourself.
⚡Commitment to follow the discipline needed to transform yourself.
Thanks for reading.
Do like for more educational stuff in future.
Disclaimer: These metaphors are not created by me but views are personal.
WHAT IS OPTION GREEKS ?NSE:BANKNIFTY
Introduction
Option trading is an exciting process and almost every market participant has at least experienced the thrill of trading options, almost all the time with unsatisfactory results.
To avoid such accidents an option trader seeks different tools to trade sucssessfully,
The most important of tools are the Option Greeks and they are usually the first metric looked upon by option traders.
What are Option Greeks?
Options are derivatives of underlying assets ( curd is a derivative of milk, so the change in the quality of milk will result in a change in the quality of the curd derived ) similarly, Greeks are a way to measure the sensitivity of the price of the option to various factors.
The price of the option premium does not always move in conjunction with the price of the underlying asset and it is important to understand the different factors that affect the change in the price of the premium. With the help of the option greeks, a trader will be able to measure the rate of change of different factors affecting the option premium.
# You can check the option greeks by using zerodha option chain or any other trading platform
What is DELTA?
The first Greek is Delta, which quantifies how much an option's price is projected to fluctuate for every $1 that the underlying securities or index changes in price.
For example,A Delta of 0.50 indicates that the option's price will fluctuate 50 point for every 100 point movement in the price of the underlying stock or index.
#Delta for call option ranges between 0 to 1 and for put option ranges between -1 to 0.
>ATM options have a delta of 0.5
>ITM option have a delta of close to 1
>OTM options have a delta of close to 0.
Delta = Change in option premium/ Unit change in the price of the underlying asset.
#The following example should help you understand this better –
Nifty is currently trading at 16000
Option Strike = 15900 Call Option
Premium = 150
Delta of the option = + 0.60
Nifty is expected to reach 16200
What is the likely option premium value at 16200 ?
Well, this is fairly easy to calculate. We know the Delta of the option is 0.60, which means for every 1 point change in the underlying the premium is expected to
change by 0.60 points.
We are expecting the underlying to change by 200 points (16200 – 16000), hence the premium is supposed to increase by
= 200*0.60
= 120
the new option premium is expected to trade around 150 + 120 = 270
What ia gamma?
Gamma is used to measure the delta’s change relative to the changes in the price of the underlying asset.
If the price of the underlying asset increases by 1point, the option’s delta will change by the gamma amount.
The gamma value will also range between 0 and 1.
Gamma = Change in an options delta / Unit change in the price of the underlying asset.
What is Theta?
The Theta or time decay factor is the rate at which an option loses value as time passes. Theta is expressed in points lost per day when all other conditions remain the same.
theta is always shown as negative number because option value is depriciating as the time is passing.
Theta is the biggest enemy of option buyer cause it reduces the favourable outcome of option buyer by depriciating the option price.
for example,A Theta of -15 indicates that the option premium will lose -15 points for every day that passes by.
if an option is trading at Rs.290/- with a theta of -15 then it will trade at Rs.275/- the following day when other factors remain constant.
Theta = Change in an option premium / Change in time to expiry.
This is the graph of how premium erodes as a time to expiry approaches. This is also called the ‘Time Decay’ graph.
What is Vega ?
It is intended to tell you how much an option’s price should move when the volatility of the underlying security or index increases or decreases. It is the change of an option premium for a given change (typically 1%) in the underlying volatility.
1. Vega measures how the implied volatility (IV) of a stock affects the price of the options on that stock.
2. Volatility is one of the most important factors affecting the value of options.
3.A drop in Vega will typically cause both calls and puts to lose value.
4. An increase in Vega will typically cause both calls and puts to gain value.
Vega = Change in an option premium / Change in volatility.
What can option Greeks do for you?
1.Help you measure the possibility that an option will expire in the money (Delta).
2.Estimate how much the Delta will change when the stock price changes (Gamma).
3.Get a feel for how much value your option might lose each day as it approaches expiration (Theta).
4.Understand how sensitive an option might be to large price swings in the underlying stock (Vega).
“With the help of Greeks, an options trader can make more analyzed decisions about which options to trade, which strike price to trade and when to trade.
Since there are a variety of market factors that can affect the price of an option in some way, assuming all other factors remain unchanged,
we can use Greeks and determine the impact of each factor when its value changes.”
I Hope you found this helpful.
Please like and comment.
Happy Trading!
Five Important Lessons to Learn From the MarketHere are a few important lessons that can help traders and investors to survive in the markets and become profitable over a period of time.
Risk Management
----------------------
Whether you are an options trader or cash market investor, risk management is the most important concept to deal with.
You should always prescribe our risk before entering the trade. Adjust position size so that the risk does not exceeds the prescribed limit.
After entering the trade, you can either go for reward which could be double, triple or more than your risk OR you can trail your stop loss to go for larger gains, in case momentum is strong.
Nothing Works All the Time
---------------------------------
A trader can utilize a custom system/strategy, can take discretionary decisions or use an algorithm to take decisions. But remember that nothing is going to work all the time.
You are bound to miss moves, exit early or get shaken out before the move actually starts. You need to think about longer term perspective. The opportunities that you missed were just a few of next 100 trades that you are going to take.
But if you are missing 6 out of 10 opportunities, you need to adjust your strategy.
All Strategies are not for Everyone
-------------------------------------------
You might have seen or heard about traders who made huge money using their own strategy. But trust me, even if you get that strategy for free there are higher chances that you are going to lose.
It is not just the strategy but years of hard work by the author that made it perfect for him. He would know all the nuances and the environments where it worked well.
Also, the nature of a strategy should be directly proportional to your personality. An aggressive strategy for one trader can be too slow for the others.
Start Small
--------------
If you are not so familiar with the stock market then you need to start with small capital. This will automatically reduce your risk and position size. Your profit will also be small but learn to make your calculations in percentage terms.
First prove yourself that you are a profitable trader for at least three months, then increase your capital gradually.
Deal with Failures
----------------------
As I said nothing works all the time. There will be losing days and losing streaks. It is very difficult to deal with losses when you are new to trading. But to begin with, minimal losses are easier to deal with. Imagine you started trading with 1lac and lost 10K on the very first day. I am sure that soon you will lose it all and then become an investor.
Following risk management and developing strategy that suits you are not overnight processes. You have to develop discipline to follow them. Try to stay in the market for longer time and it will teach you how to deal with failures.
Before you leave don't forget to like and comment for more such writeups in the coming days.
Regards
Market Phases - Every trader must knowMarket Phases -Stock prices may appear random, but there are repeating price cycles, which are predominantly driven by the market participation. Below are the four types of market phases that occur.
Phase 1: Accumulation - The accumulation phase is a stage of consolidation. There is no clear trend, and the stock is usually trading in a range. It's a span of time in which traders and institutions are slowly accumulating shares, but the market has not broke out yet. Trend traders finds difficulty to trade.
Phase 2: Advancing - During the advancing phase, price breaks out of range (comes out of the accumulation phase) and begins a sustained uptrend. This stage is when the price begins moving up. The big money has established a position and retail investors are now invited to join in the profit party. This is the most profitable time to own the stock – an opportunity to let your profits run.
Phase 3: Distribution - The distribution phase begins as the advancing phase ends and price enters another range period. The shares are being sold over a period of time—the opposite of accumulation. This time, the sellers want to maintain higher prices until the shares are sold.
Phase 4: Declining - During the declining phase, price breaks out of the range (comes out of the distribution phase) and begins downtrend. This stage comes after distribution when price begins moving down.
Now lets understand them one by one in detail :-
1.)Accumulation phase where trend traders find difficulty to trade
Accumulation usually occurs after a fall in prices and looks like a consolidation period.
Characteristics of accumulation phase:
It usually occurs when prices have fallen over the last 6 months or more
It can last anywhere from months to even years
It looks like a long period of consolidation during a downtrend
Price is contained within a range as bulls & bears are in equilibrium
The ratio of up days to down days are pretty much equal
The 200-day moving average tends to flatten out after a price decline
Price tends to whip back and forth around the 200-day moving average
Volatility tends to be low due to the lack of interest
Examples of Accumulation -
How To Trade Accumulation ??
1.)Sell At Resistance
2.)Buy At Support
Do not go blindly short at resistance, wait for any reversal candle or look for any negative price action in smaller TF. Look for reversal candles
Never buy blindly on support. Look for reversal candles. Switch to smaller Time-frame find a bullish price action/ bullish chart patterns.
Never Ever Trade At Midpoint In A Range Market. You never no where it will head, to the the support area or to the resistance area.
2.)Advancing phase which trend traders love — Best trading strategy is to long the uptrend
After price breaks out of the accumulation phase, it goes into an advancing phase (an uptrend) and consists of higher highs and lows.
Characteristics of advancing phase:
It usually occurs after price breaks out of accumulation phase
It can last anywhere from months to even years
Price forms a series of higher highs and higher lows
Price is trading higher over time
There are more up days than down days
Short term moving averages are above long-term moving averages (e.g. 50 above 200-day ma)
The 200-day moving average is pointing higher
Price is above the 200-day moving average
Volatility tends to be high at the late stage of advancing phase due to strong interest
Examples of Advancing
How To Trade Advancing ??
1.)Breakout Trading - Where you above the highs
2.)Pullback Trading - Where you buy support which was earlier a resistance. This is called change in polarity.
Avoid Trading against the trend. If you trade then take small profits. You will get max with the trend.
3.)Distribution phase- - Distribution usually occurs after a rise in prices and looks like a consolidation period.
Characteristics of distribution phase:
It usually occurs when prices have risen over the last 6 months or more
It can last anywhere from months to even years
It looks like a long period of consolidation during an uptrend
Price is contained within a range as bulls & bears are in equilibrium
The ratio of up days to down days are pretty much equal
The 200-day moving average tends to flatten out after a price decline
Price tends to whip back and forth around the 200-day moving average
Volatility tends to be high because it has captured the attention of most traders
Examples of Distribution :-
How To Trade Distribution ??
1.)Sell On Resistance
2.)Buy On Support
Do not go blindly short at resistance, wait for any reversal candle or look for any negative price action in smaller TF. Look for reversal candles
Never buy blindly on support. Look for reversal candles. Switch to smaller Time-frame find a bullish price action/ bullish chart patterns.
Never Ever Trade At Midpoint In A Range Market. You never no where it will head, to the the support area or to the resistance are.
4.Declining phase - Best trading strategy is to short the downtrend
After price breaks down of the distribution phase, it goes into a declining phase (a downtrend) and consists of lower highs and lows.
This is the stage where traders who do not cut their loss become long-term investors.
Characteristics of declining phase:
It usually occurs after price breaks out of distribution phase
It can last anywhere from months to even years
Price forms a series of lower highs and lower lows
Price is trading lower over time
There are more down days than up days
Short term moving averages are below long-term moving averages (e.g. 50 below 200-day ma)
The 200-day moving average is pointing lower
Price is below the 200-day moving average
Volatility tends to be high due to panic and fear in the markets
Examples of declining :-
How To Trade Declining ??
1.)Breakdown Trading - Where you sell below the lows
2.)Pullback Trading - Where you sell on rise after a breakdown. Supports turned into resistance. This is called change in polarity.
Avoid Trading against the trend. If you trade then take small profits. You will get max with the trend.
Hope you all learnt from this post. Share with the community if you liked it.
Regards
Omahto
TITAN: algo signal demonstrationHOW TO FOLLOW ALGO SIGNAL:
Deciding buy/sell
1.Strictly use only on 1 hour time frame.
2.Wait for a ‘X’ sign before mind make up. A red ‘X’ means look for selling opportunity , a green ‘X’ means look for buying opportunity.
Taking a position:
3.Wait for an arrow before entering into any position. A red arrow on upside of a bar pointing downward means open short position. A green arrow below the bar pointing upward means open buy position.
4.NOTE: Only after the the signalling of X , look for arrow. Do not buy/sell if you see any arrow before the signal of X.
5.STOP LOSS should be the most recent swing high/low or most recent STRONG CANDLE’S high/low.
While maintaining the position :
6.The small triangles after the each bar completion tells you to hold the position. The red triangles appearing upside on the bar tells you to hold the short position, whereas the green triangles appearing below the bars tells you to hold the long position.
Exiting the position:
7.After you create a buy position , if you see a green arrow above any bar pointing downward, then you should either book partially/leave the position for sometime. You will get another signal to re-enter.
8.Similarly, after you create a sell position , if you see a red arrow below any bar pointing upward, then you should either book partially/leave the position for sometime. You will get another signal to re-enter.
9.While being in position if you see any X signal which is opposite of your trade , then leave your position immediately.
10.When you see a big red circle dot then you must exit all your short positions. Contrary , when you see a big green circle dot , you must exit all your long positions. And then wait for a X-signal.
No Trading Zone:
11.When you get frequent X-signals in green-red-green-red & that too very close, then its means that stock is going to form a range. One should wait for the range break & move away to another stock. (THIS IS WHERE YOU WILL REQUIRE A PRACTICE TO IDENTIFY THE RANGE)
Nifty - Did You Catch The Bottom at 12088 ?Super Excited to Start This Idea with Marathi Musical Piece - Ghan Othanbun "Yeti" by Legendary Singer - "Lata Mangeshkar Ji" which compliments by Blue Microphone "Yeti". Thanks for your precious time & I wish all of you a lovely & terrific week ahead.
Trading Strategy
Plan A –
Getting an opportunity close to 12200-12225 – Buy with strict stops below 12200 once it halts & stops in this range for Target – 12315-12340
Plan B –
If stops or halts in 12335 – 12350 zone & starts falling below 12335 – Put stops above 12350 for Targets 12200-12225 / Below 12180 strictly for 12110-12125
Plan C-
Getting an opportunity in 12080 -12100 zone (if 12080 is not broken downside) then look for upside Targets – 12225 / 12350 / 12400
Plan D –
Selling from Channel Tops close to 12375 – 12400 ( Be careful in this strategy) –it is only for extreme risk takers- Downside Target is 12100 - 12120 / 11930 - 11950 / 11800-11830 / Below 11800 – 11500 & 11100
USDINR Idea to Buy above 70.35-70.50 - What a bounce from 70.70 for 71.40's (click the idea)
Nifty Last Video Idea - "Stellium Effect - How I cracked the tops at 12295" (click the idea)