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7 Important Tips for Risk Management Hey everyone! While trading and investing offer the opportunity for profit, there is always the potential for loss. Here are a couple of time-tested tips to help you in understanding and managing your risk better. 📝 Develop a Trading Plan ─ Many traders jump into the market without a thorough understanding of how it works and what it takes to be successful. ─ You should have a detailed trading plan in place prior to engaging in any trades. ─ Your plan should include essential components such as the entry point, a strategically defined stop-loss level to mitigate potential losses, and target levels to define your anticipated profit points. ─ Having a well-structured plan equips you with a roadmap during stressful trading situations and ensures that your trades are consistently aligned with your risk tolerance threshold. ——————❌——————❌—————— 🧘‍♂️ Understand your Risk Tolerance ─ Risk is subjective. Different traders have different personalities and systems, hence a different risk tolerance. ─ Start with self-reflection: Begin by reflecting on your own attitudes, beliefs, and emotions towards risk. Consider how comfortable you are with the possibility of losing money, how patient you are with market fluctuations, and how much stress or anxiety you can handle when investments don't go as planned. Understanding your own psychological and emotional response to risk is crucial in determining your risk tolerance. ─ Consider your financial situation: Take into account your current financial situation, including your income, savings, debts, and expenses. A thorough understanding of your financial resources and obligations will help you gauge the amount of risk you can afford to take. ─ There is no “One-size-fits-all” approach . Find out what suits your needs based on your account size, age, long-term plan, and other key variables that are specifically unique to your circumstances. Then, implement it accordingly. ——————❌——————❌—————— 📚 Follow your Trading System ─ Develop a clear and comprehensive trading system that outlines your approach, rules, and criteria for entering and exiting trades. ─ A well-designed system provides structure and discipline, helping you avoid impulsive decisions driven by emotions or short-term market fluctuations. ─ A trading system is essential because it requires you to think deeply about your approach to markets before you begin risking real money. ─ Backtest and research your system: Validate the effectiveness of your trading system by backtesting it against historical market data. This allows you to assess its performance and identify any potential flaws or areas for improvement. Additionally, research and analyze your system under various market conditions to understand its adaptability and resilience. ─ Evaluate your system's performance in different scenarios: Simulate your system's performance in different market environments, including bear markets or periods of increased volatility. By assessing how your system would fare in adverse conditions, you can gauge its robustness and make necessary adjustments to enhance its overall effectiveness. ─ Some traders keep hopping strategies after a series of losses. This usually leads to more losses and is unproductive in the long term. ─ Stick to your system with a verifiable edge: If your trading system has been thoroughly tested, backtested, and proven to have an edge, have confidence in it and adhere to its rules consistently. Consistently following a system that has demonstrated positive expectancy over time increases your chances of generating consistent profits in the long run. ——————❌——————❌—————— 🚨 Use a Stop-Loss ─ A stop-loss order is an order that is placed at a predetermined price level and can help in limiting your losses if the trade goes against you. ─ In general, this predetermined price level is the level at which your trade idea gets invalidated. ─ A stop loss helps in protecting against emotional decision-making and allows you to maintain discipline in your trading system. Implementing a stop-loss order ensures that you have predefined risk parameters, allowing you to quantify and control your downside risk. ——————❌——————❌—————— ✂️ Manage your Position Size ─ Effectively managing your position size is crucial in mitigating risk and maximizing potential returns. ─ By carefully determining the appropriate position size, you can avoid excessive exposure in any single trade. ─ Trading is a game of probabilities. Hence, a trader should never put all his eggs in one basket and if he does, then he should be well aware of it. ——————❌——————❌—————— ❌ Don't Overtrade or Revenge Trade ─ Resist the temptation to overtrade or engage in revenge trading, even in the face of losses. Attempting to recover losses through higher-risk trades is never a good idea and can lead to even bigger losses. ─ It's easy to feel strong emotions while trading. However, making decisions based on emotions rather than rational analysis can be a recipe for disaster. ——————❌——————❌—————— 📔 Maintain a Trading Journal ─ A trading journal can help you in identifying the shortcomings in your trading. ─ By documenting your trades, you gain valuable insights into your strengths and weaknesses as a trader. Regularly reviewing and evaluating your journal allows you to identify patterns, mistakes, and areas for improvement. ─ This self-reflection enables you to fine-tune your strategies, refine your risk management techniques, and enhance your overall trading approach. ─ Moreover, a trading journal helps instil discipline and accountability by keeping a record of your trading actions and outcomes. It serves as a reference point for future analysis and learning, enabling you to continuously evolve as a trader. ——————❌——————❌—————— Thanks for reading! I hope you enjoyed this post. Please feel free to write any additional tips or pieces of advice in the comments section below! Trade safe. Be smart. I’ll see you in the next one. Cheers! Rajat Kumar Singh (@johntradingwick)
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NSE:ADANIENTEducation
by johntradingwick
3
How to find High Probability trades? Hi all, hope you guys are doing well. It’s been a long time since I last posted. Apologies for that. 🙏 In this post, we are going to see how we can combine different indicators/concepts to create confluence zones and find high-probability trades. Introduction A trade that has a greater chance of success than a regular trade is called a high-probability trade. Obviously, it's our assumption that some trades have higher chances of success as compared to others because they have more supporting factors. Nevertheless, a high probability trade can also result in a loss. How to find high-probability trades? There are a few things that you can observe to find a confluence of various important factors such as a support/resistance level, demand/supply zone, Fibonacci level, moving averages, volume, RSI, etc. Depending on your knowledge and trading style, the confluence zone can be derived using a combination of various different concepts or indicators. In this post, I am going to share the factors that I look at for finding good trades. How to find confluence zones? In order to find the confluence zones, you need to understand the concepts and the indicators, then combine them together to create the whole picture. It's like building a jigsaw puzzle - first, you need to identify the individual pieces, and then you need to put them together. Let’s dive into all of these concepts one by one. 1. Market structure Market structure is simply a basic form of understanding how the markets move . The price action is how the market moves based just on price, without the consideration of trends and how they may continue. But the market structure is focused mainly on the trend. I have covered market structure in various different threads that you can read here: 2. Consolidation before Breakout If a stock consolidates before giving a breakout, there are higher chances that it will be a true breakout. This is because all the residual supply gets absorbed at the resistance zone and most of the pending demand orders get filled. Ideally, once a stock goes into consolidation, one of the two processes occurs: Accumulation Distribution In layman’s terms, - If demand is more aggressive than supply, then the price rallies, which confirms accumulation. - Similarly, if the supply is more aggressive than the demand, then the price falls down, which confirms distribution. If you are struggling with identifying the breakouts, be sure to read this post. 3. Support-Resistance levels S/R levels are critical parts of trend analysis because they are used to highlight important zones. The fact that these levels flip roles between support and resistance can be used to determine the range of a market, trade reversals, bounces, or breakouts. These levels exist due to the influx of buyers and sellers at key junctures. Flip zone acting as resistance: Flip zone acting as support: If you are looking for an in-depth tutorial on support and resistance, please check out my old guide here: 4. Supply-Demand zones S/D demand zones are one of the most important things that I look at while charting. The stronger the S/D zone, the higher the chances of a reaction. Always look for these zones in the direction of the major trend. 5. Location of 200MA or 200EMA Always observe the position of 200MA/EMA with respect to price. Once the price interacts with the moving average, study the reaction. If you are looking for a long trade, then look for a positive reaction as the price reacts with the moving average. 6. Overlap with a Fibonacci level A lot of times, the price will come back to a Fibonacci level. You need to observe the price behaviour near these levels. If you are not familiar with the Fibonacci tool, please check my old guide on Fibonacci retracement and extension. 7. Candlestick pattern and the size of the candles The candle spread plays an important role in determining the strength and mood of the underlying trend. In layman's terms, big-bodied candles indicate strength and small-bodied candles act as noise. In any case, the candlestick pattern and candle spread should only be viewed at an important level. The context plays a crucial role. 8. Chart patterns This is pretty self-explanatory. If you trade patterns, you can combine them with other factors to strengthen your analysis. 9. Volume expansion Ideally, at the time of the breakout, the volumes should rise . The volume can be deceiving and we need to see orderflow for a clear picture. Obviously, the majority of us are not looking at the orderflow and hence the volumes can be deceiving. But, for a normal trader, the simple volume indicator is more than enough. So, these are mainly all of the factors that I look at while analyzing the charts. Please note that the usage of the concepts will vary with charts. Sometimes only 3-4 factors may be at play and the other times, 6-7. High Probability trade checklist: 1. Market structure 2. Consolidation before the Breakout 3. Support-Resistance levels 4. Supply-Demand zones 5. Location of 200MA or 200EMA 6. Overlap with a Fibonacci level 7. Candlestick pattern and the size of candles 8. Chart pattern 9. Volume expansion In the example above, you can notice the following things: 1. The market structure was bullish before the breakout, which was evident from the formation of higher highs and higher lows. Don't confuse the internal structure (Low time frame structure) with the external structure (High time frame structure). 2. The price was consolidating in the rectangle/parallel channel for a good amount of time. 3. When the price reached the previous demand zone, the selling pressure started to decrease and the buyers started to step in. 4. When the price interacted with 200MA/EMA, there was a strong reaction to the upside. This means that the buyers want to take the price higher. 6. The buying interest can be seen by an increase in the volume in the last few sessions before the breakout. The volume can be deceiving and we need to see orderflow for a clear picture. But in general, you do not need to complicate this, just use volumes in conjunction with other factors. 7. We always look for some reversal or indecision candlesticks in the confluence zone. In the chart above, at the point of interaction with the moving average and the demand zone, we can see the formation of exhaustion candles. Again, we need to look at these patterns only at specific important levels (like support or resistance levels) and disregard the formations in between the levels. 8. When the price broke above the previous major resistance with a massive bullish candle, there was a heavy volume expansion. More examples: You can read and revise this post until you understand all the concepts. Thanks for reading. I hope you found this helpful! 😊 Disclaimer : This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk. Happy learning. Cheers! Rajat Kumar Singh (@johntradingwick) Community Manager (India), TradingView
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NSE:BELEducation
by johntradingwick
52
An Intraday trading system with a High winning rate using VWAP Dear reader, this is a full-fledged trading system. If you follow all the mentioned steps correctly, you will definitely have a great winning ratio. You can back-test this system on any instrument, stock, commodity, forex, etc. This system should only be used to take “Long” trades using the 5 min time frame on a stock that has sufficient liquidity. Steps to follow: 1. Look for Bullish divergence – The first and foremost thing that you need to do is to look for the Bullish divergence. The bullish divergence must be either strong, medium, or hidden bullish divergence. Ignore the weak bullish divergence. If you don’t know about bullish divergence, you should read my thread on it. Here’s the link: 2. Look for early signs of reversal, after the divergence has occurred – As soon as you spot divergence, look for different signs of reversal. These can include either some reversal, neutral candlestick patterns or a sharp curve in RSI along with the formation of some bullish candlestick. 3. Look for candlestick patterns – You should look for the candlesticks such as a hammer, bullish engulfing, inverted hammer, a railway track pattern, morning star pattern. 4. When to enter the trade? –You should wait for the price to close above the VWAP and there must be some sort of increase in volume which confirms the buying interest. When the price closes above the VWAP with a good volume, enter the trade. Until both of these conditions are met, do not enter the trade. 5. How to set stop loss? – The stop loss can be either the swing low or the low of the reversal candle. Also, you can either use a fixed stop loss or trail your stop loss to the succeeding swing lows. 6. How to choose the target? – The minimum target should be the previous swing high or the previous supply zone. You can keep trailing your position if the stock keeps giving multiple breakouts. This system is highly effective and you can modify it according to your needs. You can read and revise this post until you master the concepts. I hope you find this post useful. Also, if anyone is interested in getting a PDF version of this thread, then you can message me, I'll provide it. Disclaimer: This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk. Happy learning. Cheers! @johntradingwick -NSE (NCFM) Certified Technical Analyst
NSE:SAILEducation
by johntradingwick
106