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1-VIX

US VIX Alarming Further Sharp CorrectionThe US VIX (volatility index) is over heated at +32 which is unusual. As the US indices have been corrected up to 20-32% from the swing high, technically it is already a crash and enter of bear market especially the technology sector, the most hit one. Next level is recession. My observation is, the increasing VIX is alarming further potential sharp correction in the US market. So brace for the worst and plan your investment programs accordingly even though if it is mutual funds or SIPs. Personal views only. Please consult your financial advisors before investing or divesting in the market.
CBOE:VIX
by Day_Traders_In
Where we can expect nifty to settle this week.We are up to the March 3rd expiry. Looking back, we are going through such a dramatic market condition. Last week was so tough as an option seller. but looking at the chart nifty at an important range. nifty cross between 16750 and 16850 with strength, but it couldn't be sustained. As it is currently a news-driven market, we can see wild movement at any time. Gaps up and down make a nightmare for option sellers. Carrying overnight risk will hit you hard. But looking at the premium everywhere, it's tempting to be in a long position. But still, the vix spike gives MTM fear. What I am looking at is above 16850, 17040 and below 16350, 16000. Let's see if the wild moves in between the range or if it breaks. Currently, I have 15550PE and 17550. Let's see if I can squeeze those premiums and make a good adjustment.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manuadarsh
March is going to be crazy. We are up to the first week of March expiry. Last month we saw such crazy movements as gap up opening and gap down opening. As an option seller, it was really a roller coaster ride, but it could end with green last month. We all learn how to trade in such crazy movements. Looking at the chart, the uncertainty is still there. Any news can drive the market. VIX in the moon, PE side massive premium spike, what I look at the PE side, even the bloodbath. I am confident about the PE side because I can get good premium even far away Srikes. Nifty trading at a major level near 16850. as long as they are below the levels to watch out 16350, 16200, and 16000. If any trend reversal above 16850, the next levels are 17040 and 17250. This was my plan, not to carry a near strike price. We can see an easy 100 point movement in this scenario. Coming to my option of selling, I have an overnight position. CE 17500 and PE 15400. This trade gives more than a 1% Let's see how it is going to end this week and I will roll up my positions with caution.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manuadarsh
In the next few days, That one guy will manage your portfolio.A day to remember with a 500 point gap down and VIX on the peak. A bloodbath on expiry day The nifty opened near 16500. On the downside, we know 16850 bounced back multiple times. Think about the option seller who entered into a safe position even below that. such a massive premium spike. A day to remember with a 500 point gap down and VIX on the peak. A bloodbath on expiry day The nifty opened near 16500. On the downside, we know 16850 bounced back multiple times. Think about the option seller who entered into a safe position even below that. such a massive premium spike. The nifty is nearly 5% down. While looking at the portfolio, it hurt, but it ended this week and this month on a high. Today's profit was nearly 1%, and this week's ending at nearly 1.5%. I am carrying over my position from Friday. I already booked profit on those positions, and on Tuesday I have 17550CE and 15850PE. But my PE fully melted on Wednesday. I was concerned about my CE 17550 because of the gap up opening and initial 5 minute candle movement. I closed all my positions and booked some losses in CE 17550 at that time. i did not enter in to new position because i was sitting on nearly 0.8% profit Then the Vix fell, the premium melted too fast, and it was a consolidation day. My plan was to take another 0.8+ profit the next day. So I did not enter into any position. Luckily, the trading plan saved me otherwise, I might have ended with a huge loss today. At the initial time, there was a huge premium spike. I entered in at 16000 PE and 16900 CE. It gave a good profit for the day. I left before 2PM. In the coming days, I am looking at the downside of 16170–15950, which is above 16700. Let's see how it's going to end. I hope everyone had a good day.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manuadarsh
Putin effect, Where we can expect expiry. Look at VIX. Where is it now. indicating the crazy movement will continue. Any news can drive the market's movement. stepping into the last week of the month with caution. Monday opened with a gap down and then started a recovery, then fell again. Today it opened with a huge 300 point gap. Think about it. Carrying over night positions is risky. As a trader, we have to look for good premiums everywhere. Make use of it and make sure you won't get stuck in volatility. Looking at the price action, it is good to see that 16850 took support and bounced back. When it comes below 17000, there is buying happening. A good sign. Also, keep an eye on that. If it breaks with strength, we can see a larger move. Above, there is a trend line. I will keep an eye on these levels. Below 16850 and above 17350. Coming to my option selling, I am already sitting on top of nearly 1.5% profit, having booked 0.8% profit. I started selling calls on Friday and I expected negativity. I took 17850 CE at a good premium at the closing time. Monday gap down opening and the CE almost melted. I held on to it, and today I booked profit. I entered into the PE side at 15850 too far with a really good premium VIX spike to help get that and the CE side at 17550. The current position is good now, one point CE side give me bit worry. My plan for the week's PE side almost melted if Tmro gapped down. I will hold my PE and adjust only the expiry day and worry about my CE side because of the VIX spike. If my SL did not meet the price, then my plan was to hold the CE till 17450–17470 and roll up the PE to 16850. Otherwise, just make adjustments. expiry day only.Let's hope we can end this week on a high.
NSE:NIFTY
by Manuadarsh
1
US Volatilityhe Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index that represents the market’s expectations for the relative strength of near-term price changes of the S&P 500 index (SPX). Because it is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates, it generates a 30-day forward projection of volatility. Volatility, or how fast prices change, is often seen as a way to gauge market sentiment, and in particular the degree of fear among market participants. The index is more commonly known by its ticker symbol and is often referred to simply as “the VIX.” It was created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and is maintained by Cboe Global Markets. It is an important index in the world of trading and investment because it provides a quantifiable measure of market risk and investors’ sentiments. KEY TAKEAWAYS The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index representing the market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. Investors use the VIX to measure the level of risk, fear, or stress in the market when making investment decisions. Traders can also trade the VIX using a variety of options and exchange-traded products, or use VIX values to price derivatives. How Does the VIX Work? For financial instruments like stocks, volatility is a statistical measure of the degree of variation in their trading price observed over a period of time. For example, on Sept. 27, 2018, shares of Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) and Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) closed around similar price levels of $107.29 and $106.89 per share, respectively. However, a look below at their price movements over the month (September) indicates that TXN (blue graph) had much wider price swings compared to LLY (orange graph). Thus, TXN had higher volatility than LLY over the one-month period.
CBOE:VIXLong
by Aryansahay1
Data Driven Analysis of Indices for the week & year ending 31-12DATA DRIVEN ANALYSIS OF NIFTY & BANK NIFTY FOR THE WEEK ENDING 31-12-21 This is a new weekly post/series where I will briefly capture the key highlights of the 2 leading indices. This post is supported by a video that takes you through the details of how I have arrived at the analysis. I encourage you to view the video as well since not everything can be captured in a document form. I hope that this effort would help the readers and viewers to get a crisp idea about what happened in the markets over a period of one week. Important - Nifty as well as Bank Nifty have ended the week on a positive note, however, this positivity comes with increased number of Covid cases in India and also overseas. I am in no way making an attempt to create panic, but I will still be cautious as the markets have sold-off in a big way for no obvious reason - for example on 20-12-21 when Nifty hit a low of 16410. In my view, a weekly close above 17625-50 is when things may seem to be stable. BANK NIFTY The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month. EOD on 1-12-21 = 36364 EOD on 24-12-21 = 34857 up by -1507 points or -4.14% from 1-12-21 The highest level in the week ending 31-12-21 = 35597 on 31-12-21 The lowest level in the week ending 31-12-21 = 34233 on 27-12-21 Difference Highest - Lowest = 1364 points or 3.98% from the lowest level In the last week, Bank Nifty has made an upward move of 625 points or 1.79% which is refreshingly a good sign. Insight: Bank Nifty as on EOD 31-12-2020 - 31264 Bank Nifty as on EOD 31-12-2021 - 35481 Change - 4218 % 13.49 NIFTY The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month. EOD on 1-12-21 = 17166 EOD on 31-12-21 = 17354 up by 188 points or 1.09% from 1-12-21 The highest level in the week ending 31-12-21 = 17400.80 on 31-12-21 The lowest level in the week ending 31-12-21 = 16833.20 on 27-12-21 Difference Highest - Lowest = 567 points or 3.37% from the lowest level In the last one week Nifty has made an up move of 350 points or 2.06% which indicates a good positive change in the short term trend. Insight: Nifty as on EOD 31-12-2020 - 13982 Nifty as on EOD 31-12-2021 - 17354 Change -3372 % 24.12 FII - DII DATA: DEC 2021 FIIs = -35,409 Crores DIIs = +30.675 Crores Net is = -4,734 Crores As mentioned last week, there was a slow down already in FII selling and it continued during the last week which brought about some relief to the downward biased market moves. Conclusion: On an annual basis, Nifty has clearly outperformed Bank Nifty which has been able to perform just above half the % gain than that of Nifty. This is indicating a very depressive picture of what happened in 2021. At the same time, I view this as an opportunity for Bank Nifty to outperform and become the recovery engine for the overall market. FIIs have turned net buyers for 2 days in the week and only once in the week their selling was more than 1,000 crores. We have to see how the next week goes. If FIIs keep buying even in the next week, then the market mood would change for the better with some sort of certainty. Insight: India Vix as on 31-12-20 21.09 India Vix as on 31-12-21 16.22 Change 04.87 % 23.09 The above is a significant drop over a period of one year and explains the logic behind the rise in the Indices. Only Nifty has a corresponding increase to the drop in India Vix as Bank Nifty has remained under pressure for most part of the year. Since this week’s analysis is also yearly analysis, I will share a separate post and a video that takes care of the Leaders & Laggards of Nifty as well as Bank Nifty. And that is why I have not compiled separate conclusions for the two indices. On a broader scale for the next few days, it is important for Nifty to end a week above 17650 and for Bank Nifty it is important to close a week above 36800-37000. This is when the indices are likely to shift to the next higher gear. Here is the video link: Please feel free to comment/share your feedback as, like you, I am also a learner of the markets! And therefore, I have the right to be wrong on either side as no one can predict the moves. Happy Trading/Investing! Umesh 31-12-21
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
#banknifty view for 1st Oct'21.#banknifty view for 1st Oct'21. The panic might be temporary, we can safely consider this as pull back. Short Term Trend Reverses Below:- 37,000 Medium Term Trend Changes Below:- 36,500 Long Term Trend Changes Below:- 34,900 Traders might feel the heat, but you are invested, stay longer or if you get a bit correction, get some good quality banking stocks. 15 min closing above 37,680 changes the whole scenario and we are back on track. Regards, SG
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by subhagghosh
9
Interesting correlation between Nifty and India VIX I have noticed this correlation between Nifty and Indiavix. 1. Whenever there is a spike in volatility and volume, that seems to mark the bottom for Nifty. 2. This theory seems to be holding for the last 7-8 months. 3. Currently, we are facing a similar kind of situation. The Vix has spiked and the price is tanking. 4. If the theory holds its value, the bottom may be reached soon. 5. However, this is just a probability like every other theory. Hence, we will have to wait and see it out. Disclaimer: This is NOT investment advice. This chart is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
NSE:NIFTY1!
by johntradingwick
28