How I Read and Observe India VixHow I Read and Observe India Vix. IndiaVix vs NIFTY50 Market volatility and market direction.
1-VIX
Data Driven Analysis of Indices for the week & year ending 31-12DATA DRIVEN ANALYSIS OF NIFTY & BANK NIFTY FOR THE WEEK ENDING 31-12-21
This is a new weekly post/series where I will briefly capture the key highlights of the 2 leading indices. This post is supported by a video that takes you through the details of how I have arrived at the analysis. I encourage you to view the video as well since not everything can be captured in a document form.
I hope that this effort would help the readers and viewers to get a crisp idea about what happened in the markets over a period of one week.
Important - Nifty as well as Bank Nifty have ended the week on a positive note, however, this positivity comes with increased number of Covid cases in India and also overseas. I am in no way making an attempt to create panic, but I will still be cautious as the markets have sold-off in a big way for no obvious reason - for example on 20-12-21 when Nifty hit a low of 16410. In my view, a weekly close above 17625-50 is when things may seem to be stable.
BANK NIFTY
The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month.
EOD on 1-12-21 = 36364
EOD on 24-12-21 = 34857 up by -1507 points or -4.14% from 1-12-21
The highest level in the week ending 31-12-21 = 35597 on 31-12-21
The lowest level in the week ending 31-12-21 = 34233 on 27-12-21
Difference Highest - Lowest = 1364 points or 3.98% from the lowest level
In the last week, Bank Nifty has made an upward move of 625 points or 1.79% which is refreshingly a good sign.
Insight:
Bank Nifty as on EOD 31-12-2020 - 31264
Bank Nifty as on EOD 31-12-2021 - 35481
Change - 4218
% 13.49
NIFTY
The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month.
EOD on 1-12-21 = 17166
EOD on 31-12-21 = 17354 up by 188 points or 1.09% from 1-12-21
The highest level in the week ending 31-12-21 = 17400.80 on 31-12-21
The lowest level in the week ending 31-12-21 = 16833.20 on 27-12-21
Difference Highest - Lowest = 567 points or 3.37% from the lowest level
In the last one week Nifty has made an up move of 350 points or 2.06% which indicates a good positive change in the short term trend.
Insight:
Nifty as on EOD 31-12-2020 - 13982
Nifty as on EOD 31-12-2021 - 17354
Change -3372
% 24.12
FII - DII DATA:
DEC 2021
FIIs = -35,409 Crores
DIIs = +30.675 Crores
Net is = -4,734 Crores
As mentioned last week, there was a slow down already in FII selling and it continued during the last week which brought about some relief to the downward biased market moves.
Conclusion:
On an annual basis, Nifty has clearly outperformed Bank Nifty which has been able to perform just above half the % gain than that of Nifty. This is indicating a very depressive picture of what happened in 2021.
At the same time, I view this as an opportunity for Bank Nifty to outperform and become the recovery engine for the overall market.
FIIs have turned net buyers for 2 days in the week and only once in the week their selling was more than 1,000 crores. We have to see how the next week goes. If FIIs keep buying even in the next week, then the market mood would change for the better with some sort of certainty.
Insight:
India Vix as on 31-12-20 21.09
India Vix as on 31-12-21 16.22
Change 04.87
% 23.09
The above is a significant drop over a period of one year and explains the logic behind the rise in the Indices.
Only Nifty has a corresponding increase to the drop in India Vix as Bank Nifty has remained under pressure for most part of the year.
Since this week’s analysis is also yearly analysis, I will share a separate post and a video that takes care of the Leaders & Laggards of Nifty as well as Bank Nifty. And that is why I have not compiled separate conclusions for the two indices.
On a broader scale for the next few days, it is important for Nifty to end a week above 17650 and for Bank Nifty it is important to close a week above 36800-37000. This is when the indices are likely to shift to the next higher gear.
Here is the video link:
Please feel free to comment/share your feedback as, like you, I am also a learner of the markets! And therefore, I have the right to be wrong on either side as no one can predict the moves.
Happy Trading/Investing!
Umesh
31-12-21
