AJANTA PHARMA LTDBuy Ajanta above: 3351 only.
All important points are marked.
𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐥𝐚𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐫: 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤𝐬, 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐛𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠. 𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐩 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞. 𝐖𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐧𝐭 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭.
Algotrading
Exide IndustriesBuy above 515.
All important points are marked.
𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐥𝐚𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐫: 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤𝐬, 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐛𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠. 𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐩 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞. 𝐖𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐧𝐭 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭.
HCL TechnologiesBreakout at 1830 will create new highs.
Positive candle closing above 1830 will be a buy Target will be 1899.
All important points are marked.
𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐥𝐚𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐫: 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤𝐬, 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐛𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠. 𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐬𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐩 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞. 𝐖𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐧𝐭 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭.
19 Jul 2024 - 5 swings on 18th, lower volatile day today vs N50BankNifty Stance Neutral ➡️
Last week we published a report stating our neutral stance, and that held up quite well as we stayed range bound this week. Technically we lost 0.23% ~ 119pts to end the week at 52221.
NiftyIT was the main reason N50 swung up and down this week, esp on the 18th. BankNifty was not spared either, we had 5 swings that particular day and anyone who ran a non-directional straddle would have faced the heat. Luckily my algos went into some technical error & I got stopped out by 09.52 with a minor loss.
We dropped 231pts ~ 0.44% in the first 4 minutes, then rose 502pts ~ 0.96% by 10.11, then fell by 484pts ~ 0.92% by 11.31. Then we had a super rally of 595pts ~ 1.14% till 14.27. From this peak, we fell 226pts ~ 0.43% till close. It makes me believe such intensity of madness usually appears at TOPS.
BN was quite decent today, we fell only 0.67% today compared to 1.095 on N50, but we do not have enough clues to go short yet. We would like to begin the next week with a neutral stance and then take it up from there.
The budget is on Jul 23 and the volatility will definitely go up on Monday, I have not decided whether to run the algos on Monday & Tuesday or not.
Day 37: Day Trading JournalDay 37: After a gap of about 15 days during which I was not trading, and trying to figure out if I can find a better algo strategy or trying to find out if manual trading is better. Since the algo that I had deployed was doing good in paper trade but real trade is a way different battle since the market gives you the worst of price at both times - entry and exit, it resulted in a breakeven after a month, now I decided to focus on my manual trading instead.
I realised that when trading manually, decision making is very complex and cannot be fit in a simple algorithm even when I am looking at just one indicator. The brain actually analyses many different things without even we realising. Most of the time, brain picks up correct entry signals. I tested out my strategy by paper trading and backtesting on different stocks than which I normally follow and I found that the strategy is good and I do good and I am profitable in that. The issue however arises when real money is involved as the most difficult part to master i.e. our emotions, are not involved in backtesting or paper trading. We need to trade live only for that and build that mindset. Nothing else can prepare me for that, so its all real trade for me now, very small positions but rigorously testing the same strategy on different stocks untill I have mastered the emotions.
Day 36: Day Trading JournalDay 36 : Today, I put a halt on algo trading as well as day trading. After algo day trading for @14 days, I realised that I was not making profit, whatever profit had accrued was taken away by market. So I went back to my algo backtesting and stress tested it for worst case conditions and that actually came very close to my real time trading. Then I realised that day trading is not gonna make money.
So I have decided to stop day trading and figure out a way to trade swing, now to see whether to follow the hourly chart or the daily chart and if any rule can be applied to it. For the next few days I will focus on trying to find that, meanwhile any trade I do manually will be a swing (holding overnight) to see how it goes.
Day 35 of Live algo Day Trading JournalDay 35: Not much movement today. Remained negative during the day.
I am increasingly getting this feeling that intraday is not worth pursuing. The time market is open is very less, the first half hour or the full hour goes just in trying to figure out where the market wants to go and by the time you think what you'd like to do, it stalls and gets into a range. By the time it ends, the market timings are over and everybody wants to pack up. Where is the time to chase any strategy, where is the time for any strategy to develop.
I think I will try looking for a swing trading strategy and see if that is profitable or not.
Progress/Setback : Nothing much on both counts, will have to explore more.
Day 34 of Live Algo Day Trading JournalDay 34: What a bad day it has turned out to be. Market gyrations has given me losses for all the trades taken. The algo was correct, the logic captured the direction of the market, however the intraday pullback of the market was beyond its normal limits (or as per the set calculated limits over a certain time) and kept hitting SL everytime. Took four trades, all wrong.
Setback: today's market has made me thinking if I should incoporate something else in the logic to figure out the major direction and take trades only in that direction? This will keep me occupied for the weekend.
Day 33 of Live Algo Day Trading JournalDay 33: Good day but did not turn out good for me today. Algo gave me entry in the morning, turned out profitable, but subsequent two entries took away all the profit. Overall a negative with minor loss.
Progress: Stuck to the algo even when was sure that we are near the support and should have taken profit. So, no manual trading today.
Learning/ to ponder: When market takes away your earnings, should you solely rely on algo ? I am thinking of changing it to stop it once a desired profit target has been achieved and take no more trades......
What are your thoughts on this ? Let it run or stop and get out ?
Day 32 of Live Algo Day Trading JournalDay 32: Day opened good, however could not sustain bullish momentum and gave up all the gains. Algo waited till it got the pullback. First trade turned out to be loss making as market played mischief and got me out. On the second trade also market tried to play mischief but the sellers were very strong and did not allow it to go beyond my SL and hence was saved. Getting to the target was a long patient wait. Had to wait for two and half hours to get it. For most of the time market just tried to push beyond the limits and kept on fooling people on both sides but my algo kept on holding. Finally at last it did go in my direction and got profit.
Progress/Learnings: PATIENCE pays. Got jittery at a time when market was close to my stop loss and thought it might get hit but did not do anything manually and held on. Patience and faith on the system pays.
Day 31 of Live Algo Day Trading JournalDay 31: Day opened bullish, my stock opened and immediately ran up to its high point. Algo did not trigger as it is deisgned to get in on a pullback. Got an entry; market tried to cheat but could not succeed and was saved. However later on the market cheated and threw me out with a minor profit. Algo again got triggered but in the wrong direction, suffered small loss. Third time algo got triggered but came out at parity.
Progress : Did not do any manual trade today even when felt like taking a bullish position manually(in hindsight looks like I was correct), but idea is to build the habit of only algo trading, no manual trading, so good, did not get into temptation.
Day 30 of Live Algo Day Trading JournalDay 30: Made a mistake today. Market was bearish in the morning and algo took a position which went on to be incorrect. Again algo took another position and this also turned out to be a loss making trade. After the fall over last few days, I was bullish while the algo signals were all bearish. So, after two wrong trades by my algo, I thought let me take the next trade manually and I went long. Market punished and threw me out. Then again I took two more trades (even when algo was quiet and did not give any signal), made up the loss that I had made in my manual trade. Overall, a loss making day, losing bit less than 1%, but the worst part was losing my patience and getting overconfident on my skills. Bad idea.
Setback: Manual trade.... i think due to getting overconfident by looking at the chart, getting influenced by a certain call, bad impact...
Day 29 of Live Algo Day Trading JournalDay 29: Good day today. After falling for almost week, market took a breather and the bulls tried to put a stop to selling.
My algo got me into a bullish position in the morning and the momentum gave me my target pretty soon. Had to be away so did not trade later on, but the algo did very well on paper trades.
Had a not so good day yesterday and was not feeling good yet continued with the algo without touching it during the day, turned out to be a wise decision.
Progress: Overcame the sadness of losing yesterday and did not do any manual trade, let the algo run its course.
08 May 2024 - Banks and IT were in RED, but Nifty closed flatBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️
BN was unable to defend the 48115 support resistance today and it was an advantage Bears. The overall price action was neutral and that might be related to the expiry trades. There were a couple of instances where BN moved 100+ pts in minutes - this really had an impact on the algo trades, but happy that major damage was not done.
Both BN and NiftyIT closed the day in the RED, whereas Nifty50 ended the day flat. If IT is also going the banks' way, we might have further downsides.
For tomorrow, I wish to hold on to the Bearish view and then go neutral if we spend considerable time above 48101.
The algos did pretty well today and ended up generating a whopping profit of 54085 INR.
Day 27 of Live Algo Day Trading JournalDay 27: Another trending day. Algo gave good entry and exit, perfect as per coding.
Progress : No chasing/FOMO/anxiety (well almost)
Learning : Need to chase profit and not let it slip away, market is supreme and smartest of all. Money is more important than getting the math right. Will chase with TSL manually when putting a stretch target.
07 May 2024 - BankNifty stance changed to Bearish, more cuts ???BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️
BankNifty also fell in a single legged manner right from the open till 11.35. The fall totally unchecked by the Bulls and in a way came as a surprise as the BTFD people usually do not let the markets fall in this fast and furious manner.
BN showed more weakness than N50, partly because NiftyIT was in great GREEN shape today. At a specific point, BN was down 1% and NiftyIT was up 0.9% - a stark contrast.
BN ended up breaking the 48661 levels we discussed yesterday and hence we changed the stance from neutral to bearish. The next level to watch out for is 48115 and then the critical support comes at 47465. Since global markets are staying green, the FII selling in our markets could be related to political uncertainty due to the ongoing elections.
BN algos ended the day with gains of 12741 INR. The bulk of the gains started coming in only after 11.39.
07 May 2024 - Going short on Nifty50 as 22295 violated, 🐻🐻🐻Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️
Recap from yesterday: "Our markets not rallying as against the recovery in US markets - speculating something to do with the re-election and taxation. Since I do not have any data points, will wait for more clarity."
After having an inline opening, Nifty50 started falling quite aggressively. Without a real struggle, 22295 was taken out in the first attempt itself. By 11.39 we fell almost 269pts ~ 1.2% and that too without any retracement. The moment the support was breached, we had to revise our stance from neutral to bearish.
Unfortunately, we did not have further bearishness today, and by going short it may appear that we did not get any benefits today. Normally when critical support is broken, it means we should have further follow up action shortly. Also in the 63mts TF we did not really break it, if you are a conservative trader, it is a good idea to wait for one full candle to form below 22295.
When you look at the higher time frame, N50 trading between 22295 and 22051 is detrimental to the inverse H&S formed between 14th to 26th March. If the next support of 22051 is broken, then we might even have to remove that candlesticks pattern.
Despite a sharp move today, N50 algos made 10417 INR today thanks to the India VIX that rose to 17% levels.
Day 26 of Live Algo Day Trading JournalDay 26: It turned out to be a good trending day today. Right from the morning the market decided to fall and kept falling. Yesterday I had tweaked my algo to take entry on pullback. Unfortunately, the morning pullback was not strong enough to get me a signal, so missed the morning trade. However, algo caught the afternoon pullback and gave me a good profit of around half a percent.
Internet consistency is an issue which is pestering me since long (now I realise that its this thing which made all my algos go wrong when I used to subscribe to other algo developers/websites). Will have to do something to raise an alarm or a flag whenever there is a drop in internet.
This drop made me take two manual decisions - one to get out when I saw that all the exit levels were broken and yet I was not getting any signal (that's when I realised that the data is not coming) and second time when algo did take the entry (because of wrong data), and then I got anxious as there wasn't enough time left and thought that the market might reverse as everyone would start closing their positions.
Progress : stuck to algo and let it run its course
Setback : Took manual decisions and got panicky/anxious when there wasn't enough time left.
Day 25 of LiveAloDayTradingJournalDay 25:
Another Monday after a weekend, however, now I don't feel the pressure of being wrong because I was out of sync with the market due to the weekend holiday. Now it seems the faith on the system is taking over and the thought never occured to me that its Monday. I just let the system figure out the signals and let it work. I just sat in front of it and just kept an eye on if the connection is still there and the internet data is flowing. Rest... the algo to decide.
Algo worked very well giving me the correct entry and exit signals and made a good half a percent today.
Progress : Faith getting better, anxiety gone, no panic/fear, no FOMO even when I can see the signals where I could have got in manually, yet did not take any manual positions, no emotional upsurge of taking manual position.
Day 24 of LiveAlgoDayTradingJournalDay 24 of DayTrading:
Let the algo run from morning. Did not tinker with it the whole day. Algo gave correct signals, however the market volatility got me and took away my profits. During the day, had the feeling that now I shoud stop the algo since I was in profit of >1%, however, let it run as I need to develop faith on my algo. Overall, an OK day, but the mindset and discipline is getting better.
Day 23 of LiveAlgoDayTradingJournalDay 23:
As expected, today being the day after a holiday (a trading break day), turned out to be a bad day. The markets remained range bound the whole day (for my stock) and just kept on hitting SL on both sides, frustrating (now, it's more like trying to frustrate). Anyways, I stuck to the algo, not doing any manual trades and the algo did not fall for anything, just the usual bearable defined losses.
Realised that I dont trust all other algo websites from where I used to subscribe, is due to this; the drop in continuous internet. This is the culprit that makes my program lose data and give wrong results. So... will have to compensate for it.
Progress: No FOMO, Anxiety, or front running, or anything else. No such emotion arose, I just let the algo do its job even when I can see that it missed the signals due to data loss.
So, a bit more progress today.
30 Apr 2024 - Sharp fall in last 1 hr, rebalancing or reversalNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish⬆️
Recap from yesterday: "We are now very close to the ATH and once we take out that, we can safely remove the double top pattern."
Nifty does a decent climb to hit a new all-time high of 22783 and then a brutal fall of 215pts ~ 0.95%. No matter how professional a trader you are, you cannot set a trap to make money out of that move. Agreed, the 22700 PE buyers would have made some decent money today, but it was never in the cards.
Nifty was bullish and stayed bullish from the start, the sign of meltdown was not there, not according to me anyway. I was really scared that we would take out the 23800 on 2nd May as it's a holiday tomorrow.
The 63mts TF paints another picture, a perfect triple top at the 22780 levels. A double top between 9th and 10th April and the third top today on 30th April. It is not a conventional triple top anyway, but the ATH levels are seen as quite shaky. As long as 22519 is respected, we maintain the long stance. Nifty algos ended the day with a gain of 210 INR.