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12 Jan ’24 — Traders are cold-blooded, Bias changed to Bullish🐂Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday “Nifty looks perfectly neutral from here, the moment the support of 21491 gives away — we can start looking for bearish opportunities. To go bullish the ATH has to be taken out. With the IT majors TCS and INFY declaring the results — we should have a strong swing direction tomorrow.” 4mts chart link Major highlights today Gap-up of 120pts ~ 0..56% NiftyIT gains 5.14% Nifty50 takes out the ATH, new value = 21928 Nifty goes from neutral to bullish Today’s stop came right at the ascending channel top-line Never seen NiftyIT so stubborn to go up, a gain of 5.14% far exceeds expectations, and that too when the IT majors are at their all-time highs. What we still do not understand is the reason for outperformance when the results were average. Anyway, this was the major reason Nifty50 broke out from the neutral zone to the bullish zone. 63mts chart link Today’s price action was along the top trend line of the ascending channel, and careful enough not to break it. There is no shame in saying traders are cold-blooded. We cannot stick with our bias, direction, or opinions and expect the market to behave as per our analysis. If the markets have turned, we need to adapt. Till yesterday, we were looking for neutral trades with a possibility of going down. See how the tables have turned today. For Monday - we need to look out for bullish opportunities now.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
01 Jan ’24 — Shocking Last 30mts like a Tsunami — Nifty50We have compiled the last 3 months of work into an Amazon Kindle ebook with the title “ 60 Post-Mortems on Nifty & BankNifty Q3 FY23-24 ” - request you to take a look and provide suggestions Nifty Analysis - Stance changed to Neutral Recap from yesterday: “Nifty is still way above the ascending channel showing bullishness. As long as the soft support level of 21652 is respected, we do not wish to change the stance.” 4mts chart link - click here Everything was going as per the plan, we even hit a new all-time high of 21834, but the last 30mts of price action was more severe than a Tsunami. Earlier in the day, was quite disheartened to hear the 7.6 Earthquake in Japan and the Tsunami alert. During those hours even Nikkei 225 futures were trading flat. We were watchful for any spillover effect to our markets but got nothing. BankNifty options flow was suggesting bearishness right from the start, the calls were unusually overpriced vs the puts indicating a higher number of CE credit spreads getting written (bearish). NiftyIT 4 mts chart - click here NiftyIT was trading in RED, so we almost gave up the hope of having a new ATH today. After a while, NiftyIT turned and turned quite big - the reversal was 536pts ~ 1.52% from the day’s low. And when NiftyIT reversed, it gave enough fuel for Nifty50 to take out the recent swing high and reach for new highs today. 63mts chart link - click here The last candle is looking quite deep and has almost negated the progress of 3 days. If it was not related to any news/event, the outcomes match quite strongly for an interim top-like formation. Just for this reason, we are changing the stance from bullish to neutral for tomorrow. We will revisit the stance during trading hours tomorrow, if it was just a blip then we should be having a new ATH tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
19th Dec ’23 - Nifty50 adds a NEW ATH to its kitty - 21505Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “I do not wish to change Nifty’s stance — I still prefer to look for long-only trades. However, 21341 would be the laxman rekha for me tomorrow also.” 4mts chart link - click here Nifty does another gap-up today which is sold into falls over 142pts ~ 0.66% to hit an intraday low of 21337 before reversing. Quite interestingly it came to my level of 21341 and I was ready to change my stance - but the reversal came quite fast. Thank God, I didnt pull the trigger. Guess what happened then - we had a healthy rising momentum and we took out the 21500 levels. The new ATH is 21505. After highs were hit - we gave way to profit booking and fell 76pts ~ 0.36% to close the day with just 34pts gains. 63mts chart link - click here Nifty has positively surprised everyone this month. After surging past the 20875 levels - N50 is not willing to take the rest. We broke out from the ascending channel, now it has formed a trend line well above that - how do I explain this craziness to someone? For tomorrow the bullish stance continues and the first support level will be 21407. Meanwhile, the Geo-political developments in the Suez Canal are looking pretty disappointing. It may take a week or two to get the real impact of it. If the ships are rerouting via South Africa - it only means higher supply-chain costs & delays. The first needle to watch maybe will be CrudeOil.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
14th Dec ’23 - BankNifty breaksout again and hits ATH Bull-RUNBankNifty Analysis If you read the postmortem report yesterday, you might have seen how the W pattern formed yesterday and BankNifty respecting the ascending trend line turned out. BankNifty had a different start today vs Nifty because we opened 0.95% gap-up and then rallied another 0.8% to hit the all time highs. 4mts chart - click here The 2nd rally was equally intense as the first. And once we hit the ATH - BN turned flat and had a sideways trend till close. Remember we discussed how gap-up and gap-downs are the major weapon used by the big-boys to scare the s**t out of the option sellers? US markets rarely does the gap-ups or gap-downs, I mean the index. Whereas the majority of the gains/loss in our markets are done via gaps. FED’s rate cuts promise in 2024 looks like more of a political play than an economic one. A rallying market and portfolios in green sounds pretty good for the incumbent leaders. Imagine trying to get re-elected when there is economic depression/recession? 63mts chart link - click here The stance on BankNifty has been revised to bullish. I have no targets in mind as we are at the ATH. The first support to look at will be 47588. Meanwhile, the charts look perfectly like in the textbook.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
XAUUSD ( GOLD ) PRICE PREDICTION ( 6 month high ) XAUUSD price trade at highest level in 6 month near $2052 wednesday. As per the RSI ( Relative Strength Index ), it show oversold zone on a 1 Day chart ( TF ). Resistance level of xauusd is $2052 ( highest point of 6 month high ), there is a higher chance of pullback in gold price. Support is seen in middle of the september high of $2022 which was the important resistance level in 1 day TF. If we talking about 50 & 200 simple moving average, it shows golden crossover it means 50 sma is cross the 200 sma from below. The golden crossover formation should keep downside cushioned for Gold price. On upside trend, If it is break the 6 month high $2052 then next level will be $ 2070 as a resistance level. The all-time high of $2079 will be next on gold buyers.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by tradewith_ritik