USDJPY SELLS📉 USD/JPY – Bearish Trend With Clean Supply Rejection
As we can see, UJ is clearly in a bearish trend, confirmed by the red dots on the left chart, where price continues to create new lows.
Price recently retraced into a well-defined Supply zone around the 156.000 level. On the right chart, structure flipped after tapping the zone, giving a clean confirmation and creating a high-quality entry opportunity.
My first partials are placed at the 15-minute low, with the remaining targets marked by the red lines below.
Analysis
Understanding the Fundamental MarketCore Principles of the Fundamental Market
Intrinsic Value Assessment:
The central idea in the fundamental market is that every asset has an intrinsic or “true” value. Investors compare this intrinsic value with the current market price to determine whether the asset is undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued. Buying undervalued assets or selling overvalued ones forms the basis of long-term profit strategies.
Focus on Economic Fundamentals:
Fundamental markets heavily rely on macroeconomic and microeconomic indicators. For example, GDP growth, inflation rates, employment statistics, interest rates, and government fiscal policies are crucial in assessing the overall economic environment. At the micro level, company-specific data such as revenue, earnings, debt levels, cash flow, and competitive positioning are analyzed to determine the financial health and growth potential of individual firms.
Long-term Investment Horizon:
Unlike traders who operate in the short-term, the fundamental market favors long-term investments. Investors anticipate that while short-term price fluctuations may occur due to market sentiment or technical factors, in the long run, the market price of an asset will converge with its intrinsic value.
Key Components of Fundamental Market Analysis
Company Analysis (Equity Market):
In the stock market, fundamental analysis involves examining a company’s financial statements—balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement. Key metrics include:
Earnings per Share (EPS): Indicates profitability on a per-share basis.
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E): Measures whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued relative to its earnings.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio: Assesses financial leverage and risk.
Return on Equity (ROE) and Return on Assets (ROA): Evaluate efficiency in using shareholders’ capital or assets to generate profits.
Beyond numbers, qualitative factors such as management quality, brand strength, market share, regulatory environment, and competitive advantages are also critical in assessing long-term growth potential.
Macroeconomic Analysis:
The broader economy directly influences asset prices. Factors such as:
Interest rates: Higher rates may reduce borrowing and consumer spending, negatively affecting company profits.
Inflation: Rising inflation can erode the real value of returns and affect purchasing power.
Fiscal and Monetary Policies: Government spending, tax policies, and central bank interventions can stimulate or constrain market growth.
Global Events: Geopolitical events, pandemics, and trade policies also play a significant role in determining market trends.
Industry Analysis:
Understanding the industry in which a company operates helps investors identify growth opportunities or potential risks. Factors to consider include:
Market size and growth potential
Competitive dynamics
Technological innovations
Regulatory constraints
Cyclical vs. non-cyclical industry characteristics
Valuation Models:
Investors use various models to estimate intrinsic value, including:
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis: Projects future cash flows and discounts them to present value.
Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Focuses on the present value of expected dividends.
Comparable Company Analysis: Compares valuation multiples (like P/E, EV/EBITDA) with peers.
Asset-Based Valuation: Evaluates the net asset value of a company by subtracting liabilities from total assets.
Participants in the Fundamental Market
The fundamental market attracts a wide array of participants, including:
Long-term investors: Individual and institutional investors who seek wealth accumulation over years or decades.
Mutual funds and pension funds: These funds invest in fundamentally strong companies with sustainable growth.
Value investors: Investors who follow the philosophy of buying undervalued stocks with a margin of safety, popularized by Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett.
Corporate analysts and research houses: Professionals who provide insights into company performance and macroeconomic trends.
Advantages of Operating in the Fundamental Market
Reduced Speculative Risk: By focusing on intrinsic value, investors can avoid the herd mentality and irrational exuberance often seen in speculative trading.
Long-Term Wealth Creation: Fundamental market investments are typically more stable and generate wealth over extended periods through price appreciation and dividends.
Informed Decision-Making: Thorough research and analysis ensure that investment decisions are grounded in reality rather than market sentiment.
Alignment with Economic Growth: Investments in fundamentally strong companies often mirror real economic growth, providing consistent returns.
Challenges of the Fundamental Market
Time-Consuming Analysis: Evaluating financial statements, industry dynamics, and macroeconomic trends requires significant effort and expertise.
Market Inefficiency: In the short term, market prices may deviate from intrinsic value due to speculation, news events, or investor sentiment.
Information Overload: Investors must filter vast amounts of data to focus on meaningful indicators.
Globalization and Complexity: International exposure introduces currency risks, geopolitical factors, and cross-border regulatory challenges.
Examples of Fundamental Market Strategies
Value Investing: Buying stocks that trade below their intrinsic value and holding until the market recognizes their true worth.
Growth Investing: Identifying companies with strong revenue and earnings growth potential even if current valuations are high.
Income Investing: Focusing on companies that provide regular dividend income alongside steady capital appreciation.
Sector Rotation: Moving investments across sectors based on macroeconomic cycles and industry trends.
Conclusion
The fundamental market is the backbone of rational, long-term investing. It emphasizes in-depth research, economic understanding, and valuation analysis to identify assets with sustainable growth potential. By concentrating on intrinsic value, participants in the fundamental market can mitigate short-term volatility and speculation, building wealth steadily over time. While it requires patience, diligence, and expertise, the fundamental market offers one of the most robust approaches to navigating the complexities of modern financial markets.
Ultimately, the fundamental market is not just about buying and selling assets—it’s about understanding the economy, businesses, and human behavior to make informed decisions that align with long-term financial goals.
Sensex INDEXSensex is in bearish trend
We can see strong RESISTANCE in between 84,800 & 85,000 range. If SENSEX breaksdown 84,800 level we can expect sensex at 84,600 and further down side till 83,100 level
Strong support regions are at 84,900, 84,500, and 83,950.
After reaching 84,600 we can expect retracement till 84,900 and if resistance was not taken then only it can move till 84,000 level
This is just my analysis to best of my knowledge
KAZIA THERAPEUTICS LTD SPONSORED ADRKZIA made double bottom with divergence with good volume and breakout at $4.45 with first target of $22.5, if and second target of $41.7 and with can expect strong resistance at $41.7 and reverse might happen. If KZIA did breakout at this level we can expect rally till $79.
Analysis is made on weekly time fame for long term view
It is just my chart analysis upto best of my knowledge. As it is share market anything happen because market effects on many things happen in the world.
Thank you
Consolidation happening in BBTC (Bombay burmah trading)1. is having consolidation pattern between 1750 - 2100 levels
2. One can watch for breakout above 2100 with good Risk : Reward
3. stock has give strong results attracting buyers and accumulation seen at 1850 levels
with strong buyer coming taking stock to 2050 levels in single day
4. stock may test its all time high if breaches 2400 levels
Gold direction today November 17📊 Support – Resistance – Fibonacci Analysis
1. Trend Overview
Price has broken below the ascending channel, signaling a shift into a corrective downtrend phase.
2. Key Resistance Zone
4,215 – 4,230
Confluence of Fibonacci retracement 0.5 – 0.618
Overlaps with a supply zone + EMA89
→ Strong resistance, high probability of selling pressure.
This is also the expected pullback/retest area before the next bearish leg.
3. Key Support Levels
Support 1 – 4,000
Fibonacci extension 0.5
Horizontal support
→ Likely to generate a short-term reaction.
Support 2 – 3,890
Major downside target if the structure fully breaks
→ Primary bearish target for a deeper continuation.
4. Price Scenario
Price may pull back toward 4,215 – 4,230.
BUY GOLD : 4000 - 3997
Stoploss : 3987
Take Profit : 100-300-500pips
SELL GOLD : 4212 - 4215
Stoploss : 4225
Take Profit : 100-300-500pips
BUY AGAIN BREAKOUT TREND LINE🕯SELL GOLD: 4018- 4015
⚠️ SL: 4015
✔️ TP: 4024→ 4030→3934( 60- 170 pips)
The 4018–4015 zone has just been broken, and with the temporary bearish structure on M15 also violated, there is a high probability that price will pull back and retest this zone.
If that happens, we’ll have a beautiful and technically clean BUY pullback opportunity aligned with the post-breakout structure.
📌 Notes:
This is a BUY pullback setup based on the M15 break of structure
Only BUY with clear candle confirmation
Small lot size + tight SL for safety
I’ll update again when price approaches the retest zone. 🔔🔥
Pressured Below 4050$ as Bears Target the 4,000$ Liquidity BreakGold continues to trade under heavy selling pressure, staying capped beneath 4,050$ and hovering just above the major liquidity floor at 4,000$.
With fading expectations for a December Fed cut and cautious global sentiment, buyers remain defensive while sellers maintain structural control.
📊 Technical Outlook (H1)
Price remains inside a tight 4,053$ → 4,000$ distribution zone, with the descending trendline keeping gold suppressed.
The POC around 4,053$ is acting as a firm ceiling; every retest so far has been rejected.
Fibonacci projections from the last drop highlight two major downside liquidity zones:
3,945$ → first liquidity cluster
3,876$ → deeper extension and key demand
Current structure resembles a bear flag, hinting that the market may be preparing for another downside expansion.
🎯 Key Scenarios
1️⃣ Bearish Breakdown (Primary Scenario)
If gold loses 4,000$, expect momentum to accelerate into:
3,945$
3,876$
This remains the most probable path while price holds below 4,053$.
2️⃣ Liquidity Sweep → Short-Covering Bounce
If price sweeps 3,945$ and forms bullish rejection wicks:
A relief bounce could develop back toward 4,000$,
Then 4,053$ (POC)
And possibly 4,098$ if buyers gain traction.
Still a corrective move unless bulls reclaim the upper structure.
❌ Invalidation (Bearish Bias Weakens)
H4 acceptance above 4,098$
→ would shift the narrative and force a reassessment of trend direction.
⚜️ MMFLOW TRADING Insight
Gold is still trading below value and below the trendline — this is not a bullish environment yet.
The market must either break 4,000$ or reclaim 4,053$–4,098$ before any stronger directional conviction returns.
“Let the market show its hand. In a downtrend, weak rallies are opportunities — not reversals.”
ETHUSDT/BTCUSDT Short idea 11/11/2025Wassup Lads!
This looks like a very enticing short setup simply because
1. Price in a daily bearish fair value gap
2. We have SMT Divergence between BTC and ETH on the daily time frame
Switching over to the H1 time frame I'm clearly seeing price print out a bearish orderflow, I have not yet entered but will look to enter a sell postion on retracement to the H1 Bearish fair value gap, targeting a basic 1 to 2 risk to reward ratio. So basically, if price retraces to the h1 bearish fair value gap I'll look for shorts or I'm happy waiting on the sidelines for a new setup.
As always -
1. Manage your risk
2. Stay disciplined
3. Do your own research
One wrong trade can spoil months of discipline
Keep winning!!
Nykaa - Strong Growth Cup & Handle with Detailed fundamentalsFSN E-Commerce Ventures Limited (Nykaa) – Technical & Fundamental Analysis
Company Overview:
FSN E-Commerce Ventures Limited (Nykaa) is a digitally native consumer technology platform, delivering a content-led, lifestyle retail experience. Since its incorporation in 2012, the company has focused on designing a differentiated brand discovery journey for its consumers. It offers a diverse portfolio of beauty, personal care, and fashion products, including owned-brand products manufactured in-house. Nykaa provides an omnichannel experience to cater to consumer preferences and convenience.
Technical Analysis
Chart Patterns: Cup and handle breakout; Today 1-hour parallel channel breakout
Current Market Price (CMP): ₹260
Targets: ₹301, ₹350
Support Levels: ₹230, ₹195
Recent News & Highlights
✅Q1 FY26 Results: Consolidated net profit surged 142% YoY to ₹23.30 Cr; revenue up 23.4% to ₹2,155 Cr
✅Arbitration Win: Nykaa Fashion received ₹10 Cr compensation from arbitration award
Q1 FY26 Guidance: Management anticipates consolidated net revenue growth at lower end of mid-twenties range YoY
✅Fashion Segment Target: Company expects EBITDA breakeven in fashion by FY26
✅Organic Portfolio Expansion: Aims to increase organic portfolio by 30% annually to reach ₹6,000 Cr GMV
✅Q4 FY25 Performance: EBITDA ₹133 Cr vs ₹93.28 Cr YoY; EBITDA margin improved to 6.47% from 5.59%
✅Corporate Action: NCLT approved merger of Iluminar Media (LBB) into Nykaa Fashion
Analytical Summary
Operational Excellence: Revenue growth of 24.5% YoY with net profit doubling to ₹66.08 Cr demonstrates strong execution and operating leverage. The company is scaling both beauty and fashion verticals while expanding margins.
Capital Structure: Debt increased 41% to ₹961 Cr, but debt-to-equity remains negligible at 0.04, showing conservative leverage. ROE at 5.9% suggests room for improvement in capital efficiency.
Valuation Risk: PE of 675.77 and PB of 40.5 reflect aggressive growth expectations. EV/EBITDA of 117.5 leaves minimal margin of safety, requiring caution for long-term investors.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths (16 Factors):
Rising net and operating cash flows for 2 consecutive years
Strong EPS growth; quarterly profit margins expanding
Improving RoCE, ROE, and ROA
Consistent revenue growth for past 2 quarters
Clean governance; zero promoter pledge
Weaknesses (3 Factors):
Promoter shareholding dilution
Expensive valuation (PE > 40) limits margin of safety
Opportunities (1 Factor):
Increasing FII/FPI shareholding validates institutional interest
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Trading and investing in stocks involve risks, and individuals should conduct their own due diligence or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any gains or losses arising from the use of this analysis.
DXY Weekly Outlook 10/11/2025 - 14/11/2025Wassup Lads!
The dollar index has closed sharply into the weekly range and has formed a daily swing point and a strong rejection candle on the weekly time frame. I am expecting dollar to retrace to the bearish daily fair value gap and continue lower.
I recommend you to -
1. Maintain your risk
2. Stay disciplined
3. Do your own research
Let's win the week
Cholamandalam Financial Holdings Ltd (CFHL) Triangle Breakout 1DCholamandalam Financial Holdings Ltd (CFHL) – Triangle Breakout & 1-Year Resistance Breakout 🚀
📊 Technical View:
CFHL has given a triangle breakout along with a 1-year resistance breakout, indicating strong bullish momentum. If Trend continues, The price action also shows a successful retest of the breakout zone, shows trend continuation.
Resistance Turned Support: ₹1650 – previously a resistance, now acting as strong support.
Current Action: Price broke above the ₹1650 range, retested the level today , and is now moving upward again.
Next Resistance Targets Levels: ₹1824 / ₹2004
Support Levels: ₹1536 / ₹1410
🏦 Company Overview:
Cholamandalam Financial Holdings Limited (CFHL), incorporated in 1949, is a part of the Murugappa Group, one of India’s most diversified business conglomerates.
CFHL is a Non-Deposit Taking Systemically Important Core Investment Company (CIC) registered with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
The company holds substantial investments in group companies and provides a diverse range of financial products and risk management services to individual and corporate clients through its subsidiaries and group companies.
📈 For educational purpose only. Not a buy/sell recommendation.
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank (TMB) – Update | 3.5% Move from Our Lvl🟢 Tamilnad Mercantile Bank (TMB) – Update | 3.5% Move from Our Level 🚀
Latest Update : Our analysis shared around ₹499 has played out well — TMB made an intraday high of ₹517, gaining nearly 3.5% from the mentioned level.
🏦 Company Overview:
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Limited is one of the oldest and leading old private sector banks in India. The bank offers a wide range of banking products and services to retail, MSME, agricultural, and corporate customers.
Retail Products: Home loans, personal loans, auto loans, educational loans, business loans, and security-backed loans.
MSME Portfolio: Loans for manufacturing, traders, and service sector enterprises.
Agricultural Loans: Offered to individual farmers, farmer groups, agri-businesses, and agri-corporates.
📊 Technical View:
High Reached: ₹517 (▲3.5%)
Resistance: ₹510 – price tested and faced mild rejection here.
Supports: ₹466 / ₹440
💡 View: The stock showed strong momentum from the support zone and approached its major 1-year resistance area near ₹510–₹515. A sustained close above ₹515 can confirm a breakout and open the next upside targets of ₹535 / ₹600.
📈 For educational purpose only. Not a buy/sell recommendation.
UPL Limited – Weekly Chart Analysis
📊 UPL Limited – Weekly Chart Analysis
Company Overview:
UPL Limited is a global leader in sustainable agricultural solutions, ranked among the top five agricultural solutions companies worldwide. The company operates across multiple countries, offering an integrated portfolio of patented and post-patent agricultural solutions for both arable and specialty crops — including biologicals, crop protection, seed treatment, and post-harvest solutions.
UPL is principally engaged in:
Production and sale of agrochemicals, field crops, and vegetable seeds
Non-agro business of industrial chemicals, chemical intermediates, and speciality chemicals
With market access across the world’s food basket, UPL is focused on driving growth and innovation throughout the entire agricultural value chain — from growers to distributors and partners. 🌱
📈 Technical View (1-Week Chart):
A trendline formation is observed on the weekly timeframe, indicating a potential breakout setup.
Resistance: ₹830 – strong resistance zone. A breakout above this level can trigger the next target near ₹930.
Support: ₹643 – strong support base.
This formation suggests the move could take time to play out, as it’s developing over the weekly chart.
📊 Key Financial Snapshot:
UPL’s current market price is around ₹724.15 with a P/E ratio of 11.65. The company holds a market capitalization of ₹61,068.53 crore and offers a dividend yield of 0.83%.
In the latest quarter, net profit stood at ₹612 crore, reflecting a 125.74% increase compared to the previous quarter. Quarterly sales were ₹12,019 crore, showing an 8.38% rise. The company’s Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) is 7.66%, indicating stable operational efficiency.
Disclaimer: For educational purposes only, not investment advice
DMART LONGDMART (Avenue Supermarts) has reached a strong trend support level. Additionally, in the daily timeframe, the current candle closed at the previous day's candle level.
Therefore, we can go long in DMART for a swing trade. Fundamentally, the quarterly results are already out, so there is no immediate issue regarding upcoming events.
Go long on DMART, but make sure to manage your trade quantity, risk, and reward based on your risk appetite. This is for educational purposes only and does not guarantee returns.
Real value of Market # Entry #Exit #Trail # StoplossThe phrase "Market # Entry #Exit #Trail # Stoploss" refers to the core parameters of a structured trading plan. The "real value" does not imply a single numerical figure, but rather the monetary gain or loss realized from a trade based on how these elements are defined and executed, combined with the discipline to follow them consistently.
Market: The specific financial instrument or market being traded (e.g., a particular stock, currency pair, or commodity).
Entry: The predefined price level or condition at which a trader opens a position. A good entry can offer a favorable risk-to-reward ratio from the start.
Exit: The predefined strategy or points at which a trader closes a position, either to take a profit or to limit a loss. Exits are crucial as they determine the final profit or loss.
Trail: Refers to a trailing stop-loss order, a dynamic risk management tool that automatically adjusts the stop-loss level as the market price moves in the trader's favor. This locks in profits while allowing the trade to continue if the price keeps moving favorably.
Stoploss (SL): A pre-determined price level or percentage below (for a long position) or above (for a short position) the entry price where the position is automatically closed to prevent further losses if the market moves against the trader.
Price Halts and Power of Confluence The price chart displays a noteworthy transformation as a previous supply zone evolves into an area of strong demand, illustrating a crucial market shift. The highlighted supply region, which had earlier capped price advances and attracted selling interest, has now transitioned into a price zone where buyers are stepping in, creating multiple reactions that signify growing demand as prices revisit this level.
- Supply to Demand Conversion: The red-shaded supply band acted as a ceiling for prices historically, but recent moves show price halting and consolidating above this region, marking a critical change in the market’s balance. This type of consolidation—where price compresses and pauses just after clearing a major supply area—is a visible sign of acceptance by market participants, as both buyers and sellers reassess value at this pivotal zone.
- Consolidation as Price Stability: Observing the price action post-supply area, there is clear evidence of tight, sideways movement—an area of price equilibrium or market indecision. This consolidation signals an important digestion phase, a hallmark of healthy price action
- Trendline Confluence: The thick green upward trendline adds a second layer of technical strength to this setup. Historically, prices have repeatedly taken support on this trendline during corrections, aligning perfectly with the newly converted demand area. This intersection of the time-based trendline with the horizontal supply/demand zone forms a strong confluence. Confluence zones like this are typically high-probability areas of interest, as the overlap of structural (trendline) and behavioral (supply/demand) features amplifies the significance of the region and attracts greater participation from market players.
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Tamilnad Mercantile Bank – 1D Chart | Strong Resistance Zone🟢 Tamilnad Mercantile Bank (TMB) – 1D Chart | Strong Resistance Zone Ahead
📊 Chart Setup:
TMB is testing its major 1-year resistance zone around ₹510, a key level that has capped price movements for months. A strong daily close above ₹510 could trigger momentum towards higher targets.
🔹 Resistance: ₹510 (Major 1-year resistance)
🔹 Targets on Breakout: ₹535 / ₹600
🔹 Supports: ₹466 / ₹440
🔹 View: Price consolidating near breakout zone. Sustained close above ₹510 can signal trend continuation.
🏦 Fundamental Update – Q2 FY26 Results Highlights:
Tamilnad Mercantile Bank delivered steady performance with profit growth and improved asset quality.
• Net Profit: ₹318 Cr ↑ (▲4.95% YoY)
• Total Business: ↑11.40%
• Deposits: ₹55,421 Cr ↑12.32%
• Advances: ↑10.5%
• Net Interest Income: ₹597 Cr ↑0.17%
• Gross NPA: ↓ to 1.01%
• Net NPA: ↓ to 0.26%
• Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): Strong at 30.96%
➡️ Stable performance, improving asset quality, and strong capital base add confidence to the technical setup.
📈 For educational purpose only. Not a buy/sell recommendation.
TechnoFunda Analysis: ASK Automotive Ltd(ASKAUTOLTD)In the ever-evolving automotive landscape, ASK Automotive Ltd stands out as a powerful blend of technical resilience and fundamental strength. With strong operational performance, expanding margins, and rising institutional confidence, the company has emerged as one of India’s leading auto component players specializing in braking systems, aluminum precision parts, and EV-compatible components.
Let’s decode ASK Automotive from both Technical and Fundamental perspectives to assess its investment potential for long-term investors and swing traders alike.
**************Technical Analysis*******************
ASK Automotive is currently in a buy zone, with a favorable risk-reward setup supported by higher timeframe structure. Traders can accumulate near supports with a stop loss below ₹470 for targets up to ₹540–560.
For investors, the current price offers a good entry point for long-term compounding given the synergy between chart strength and business fundamentals.
Trend: Uptrend remains intact across all major timeframes.
Momentum Indicators: RSI is recovering from the 40–45 zone, hinting at renewed bullish momentum.
Volume Action: Rising volume near the 200 EMA suggests smart money accumulation.
Short-Term View: A decisive close above ₹500 could lead to a near-term rally towards ₹540–560.
Medium-Term View: Sustained trading above ₹560 may open the path toward ₹600+ in the coming months.
**************Fundamental Analysis***************
1. Company Overview
Incorporated in 1988, ASK Automotive Ltd is one of India’s largest manufacturers of Advanced Braking Systems, supplying critical friction and safety components to leading two-wheeler and four-wheeler OEMs such as Hero MotoCorp, Honda, Suzuki, TVS, Bajaj, and Royal Enfield.
The company has diversified into lightweight aluminum precision solutions and EV-compatible products, making it a forward-looking player in India’s auto ancillary space.
2. Industry Analysis
India’s auto component industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10–12% over the next 5 years, driven by:
Increasing domestic vehicle production
Strong aftermarket demand
Rapid adoption of EVs and hybrid vehicles
Export opportunities due to global supply chain realignments
Within this context, ASK Automotive’s leadership in braking and aluminum lightweighting places it at the core of this structural growth story. With its 50% market share in 2W braking systems, it stands to benefit significantly from the 2W and EV upcycle.
3. Economic Conditions
The broader Indian economy provides a supportive backdrop:
GDP growth above 7% ensuring stable demand
Falling input inflation, aiding margin expansion
Government PLI schemes promoting domestic manufacturing
EV policy tailwinds, increasing OEM collaboration opportunities
Thus, macroeconomic conditions currently favor sustained growth in the auto ancillary sector.
4. Qualitative Analysis
Strengths:
Market leader with 50% share in the 2W braking system segment
Diversified product portfolio: braking, aluminum, safety cables, and EV components
Strong OEM relationships ensuring steady order flow
17 manufacturing facilities across India + 1 JV
Strategic partnerships with AISIN (Japan), LIOHO (Taiwan), and FRAS-LE (Brazil)
Focused R&D investments in EV and lightweight solutions
Weaknesses / Risks:
Heavy dependence on the two-wheeler segment (76% of OEM revenue)
High P/E valuation limits near-term upside
Raw material cost volatility could impact margins
Export contribution (5%) remains relatively small
5. Quantitative Analysis
Compounded Growth Ratios:
Sales CAGR (3Y): 21%
Profit CAGR (3Y): 44%
ROE (Last Year): 27%
Stock Price CAGR (1Y): 17%
ASK Automotive’s growth trajectory reflects consistent expansion in both topline and bottom-line metrics, alongside superior capital efficiency.
6. Past, Present & Future Growth Outlook
Past (FY19–FY21):
The company faced headwinds due to an industry slowdown and pandemic impact. Sales fell marginally but profitability remained intact, proving operational resilience.
Present (FY22–FY25):
Strong recovery phase driven by OEM revival, export traction, and margin expansion. FY25 saw record revenue of ₹3,630 Cr with 12% OPM and 27% ROE — its best performance yet.
Future (FY26–FY28):
ASK Automotive’s focus on EV-compatible lightweighting, thermal management systems, and global JVs positions it for 15–18% CAGR growth.
The upcoming Bengaluru plant (₹200 Cr capex) and 9.9 MW solar facility are expected to boost both capacity and sustainability credentials.
ASK Automotive represents a rare blend of technical strength, financial soundness, and industry leadership. With a clear growth trajectory, expanding institutional interest, and consistent operational excellence, it holds the potential to become one of India’s top-performing auto ancillary stocks in the coming decade.
Price action of Jubilant Agri and Consumer Products LimitedThe price action of Jubilant Agri and Consumer Products Limited ( NSE:JUBLCPL ) on a 4-hour timeframe.
The stock recently showed a significant bullish signal after a period of decline within a well-defined upward channel.
Key Signals
The price has rebounded from the lower end of the channel, forming support close to ₹2,080–₹2,100 levels.
The latest candle has crossed above the 200 EMA, a widely watched moving average for trend confirmation.
A bullish MACD divergence is indicated, suggesting a momentum shift and potential for price reversal.
Also (Bulish Continuation wedge is formed ) - A Bullish Continuation Wedge signals a brief pause within an ongoing uptrend. It forms between two downward-sloping, converging trendlines as sellers temporarily gain control. However, the pattern ultimately favors the bulls—when price breaks above the upper trendline, it confirms the resumption of the preceding upward trend.
Analysis
Trend: Bullish within channel; recent breakout suggests continuation
Key Support: ₹2,080
Immediate Resistance: ₹2,400–₹2,500 (mid-channel)
Indicators: 200 EMA breakout, MACD bullish divergence
Target: ₹3,000 or + (upper channel boundary)
This analysis suggests a potential swing trading opportunity, provided the bullish signals are confirmed in subsequent sessions. Always consider risk management and market conditions before entering trades.
PLEASE NOTE THAT:
This chart analysis is only for reference purpose.
This is not buying or selling recommendations.
I am not SEBI registered.
Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trade
BTCUSD RAINING BLO*D🩸 BTC slapped our sell-limit like it owed it money 💀 The setup looked clean — until the bulls said “Not today.” We’re running in drawdown, but structure still holds hope ⚔️
📉 Current View:
BTCUSD 1H — Price rejected around 115.9K–116.8K liquidity zone after a market structure shift (MSS) at 113.0K. Structure remains bearish unless daily closes above 116.8K.
📊 Key Levels:
🔴 Resistance/Sell Zone: 115.8K–116.8K (OB / liquidity)
⚫ Structure Break: 113.0K → below = continuation
🟢 Buy Re-entry/Demand Zones: 112.4K–111.7K | 109.8K–108.9K (golden pocket)
🧠 Trading Plan:
• Bearish bias holds while below 116.8K → Target 113.0K then 109.8K
• Bullish flip only if daily candle closes above 117K → Next target 119.5K–121.2K
📰 BTC Update:
ETF inflows slow mid-October; CPI data due this week could spark volatility. Derivatives funding rates mildly positive — short-term long bias possible, but liquidity still favors downside traps.
💬 Trader’s Humor: “Sell-limit triggered, stop-loss flirting, and patience getting margin-called — just another day in crypto.” 😂
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XAUUSD – Gold Trading Plan: Fresh Record Highs & Fibo Zone React📊 Market Context
Gold regained strong bullish momentum on Monday, surging to a new record high above 3,720 USD/oz. The Fed’s dovish outlook, signaling the possibility of two additional rate cuts this year, continues to support non-yielding assets like gold. At the same time, geopolitical risks remain a tailwind for safe-haven demand.
🔢 Technical Analysis (H2)
Immediate Resistance / SELL Zones:
3,818.769 – Key reaction zone where sellers may defend aggressively.
3,754.890 – Secondary SELL zone reaction area for short-term pullbacks.
Mid-Level Support / BUY Zone:
3,694.521 – First key area to watch for dips and potential buy reactions.
3,660.130 – Stronger support level if price pulls back deeper.
Major BUY Zone Reaction:
3,583.663 – Critical confluence of structure and Fibonacci support, a potential bounce zone if a major correction unfolds.
📈 Suggested Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ Bullish Continuation Setup
BUY: Look for pullbacks to 3,694–3,660 with bullish candlestick confirmation.
Targets: 3,754 → 3,818, leave partial position open if momentum breaks higher.
Stop Loss: Below 3,645 for safer positioning.
2️⃣ Countertrend SELL Setup
SELL: Enter short at 3,754–3,818 zones only with strong rejection signals.
Targets: 3,694 → 3,660, trail stops aggressively to lock profits.
3️⃣ Deep Correction Opportunity
BUY: If price flushes to 3,583–3,585, consider scaling into longs.
Targets: 3,660 → 3,754, aligning with the broader uptrend.
⚠ Key Trading Notes
Expect increased volatility with Fed guidance and ongoing geopolitical risks.
Use smaller position sizes near resistance zones and employ stop-loss discipline.
Avoid mid-range entries; focus on well-defined zones for optimal risk-to-reward setups.
💬 Community Discussion
📊 Will gold sustain its rally toward 3,818 or see a deep pullback before another leg higher? Share your charts and insights below so we can compare strategies!






















