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DMART LONGDMART (Avenue Supermarts) has reached a strong trend support level. Additionally, in the daily timeframe, the current candle closed at the previous day's candle level. Therefore, we can go long in DMART for a swing trade. Fundamentally, the quarterly results are already out, so there is no immediate issue regarding upcoming events. Go long on DMART, but make sure to manage your trade quantity, risk, and reward based on your risk appetite. This is for educational purposes only and does not guarantee returns.
NSE:DMARTLong
by KRUNALBARAIYA
1
TechnoFunda Analysis: ASK Automotive Ltd(ASKAUTOLTD)In the ever-evolving automotive landscape, ASK Automotive Ltd stands out as a powerful blend of technical resilience and fundamental strength. With strong operational performance, expanding margins, and rising institutional confidence, the company has emerged as one of India’s leading auto component players specializing in braking systems, aluminum precision parts, and EV-compatible components. Let’s decode ASK Automotive from both Technical and Fundamental perspectives to assess its investment potential for long-term investors and swing traders alike. **************Technical Analysis******************* ASK Automotive is currently in a buy zone, with a favorable risk-reward setup supported by higher timeframe structure. Traders can accumulate near supports with a stop loss below ₹470 for targets up to ₹540–560. For investors, the current price offers a good entry point for long-term compounding given the synergy between chart strength and business fundamentals. Trend: Uptrend remains intact across all major timeframes. Momentum Indicators: RSI is recovering from the 40–45 zone, hinting at renewed bullish momentum. Volume Action: Rising volume near the 200 EMA suggests smart money accumulation. Short-Term View: A decisive close above ₹500 could lead to a near-term rally towards ₹540–560. Medium-Term View: Sustained trading above ₹560 may open the path toward ₹600+ in the coming months. **************Fundamental Analysis*************** 1. Company Overview Incorporated in 1988, ASK Automotive Ltd is one of India’s largest manufacturers of Advanced Braking Systems, supplying critical friction and safety components to leading two-wheeler and four-wheeler OEMs such as Hero MotoCorp, Honda, Suzuki, TVS, Bajaj, and Royal Enfield. The company has diversified into lightweight aluminum precision solutions and EV-compatible products, making it a forward-looking player in India’s auto ancillary space. 2. Industry Analysis India’s auto component industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10–12% over the next 5 years, driven by: Increasing domestic vehicle production Strong aftermarket demand Rapid adoption of EVs and hybrid vehicles Export opportunities due to global supply chain realignments Within this context, ASK Automotive’s leadership in braking and aluminum lightweighting places it at the core of this structural growth story. With its 50% market share in 2W braking systems, it stands to benefit significantly from the 2W and EV upcycle. 3. Economic Conditions The broader Indian economy provides a supportive backdrop: GDP growth above 7% ensuring stable demand Falling input inflation, aiding margin expansion Government PLI schemes promoting domestic manufacturing EV policy tailwinds, increasing OEM collaboration opportunities Thus, macroeconomic conditions currently favor sustained growth in the auto ancillary sector. 4. Qualitative Analysis Strengths: Market leader with 50% share in the 2W braking system segment Diversified product portfolio: braking, aluminum, safety cables, and EV components Strong OEM relationships ensuring steady order flow 17 manufacturing facilities across India + 1 JV Strategic partnerships with AISIN (Japan), LIOHO (Taiwan), and FRAS-LE (Brazil) Focused R&D investments in EV and lightweight solutions Weaknesses / Risks: Heavy dependence on the two-wheeler segment (76% of OEM revenue) High P/E valuation limits near-term upside Raw material cost volatility could impact margins Export contribution (5%) remains relatively small 5. Quantitative Analysis Compounded Growth Ratios: Sales CAGR (3Y): 21% Profit CAGR (3Y): 44% ROE (Last Year): 27% Stock Price CAGR (1Y): 17% ASK Automotive’s growth trajectory reflects consistent expansion in both topline and bottom-line metrics, alongside superior capital efficiency. 6. Past, Present & Future Growth Outlook Past (FY19–FY21): The company faced headwinds due to an industry slowdown and pandemic impact. Sales fell marginally but profitability remained intact, proving operational resilience. Present (FY22–FY25): Strong recovery phase driven by OEM revival, export traction, and margin expansion. FY25 saw record revenue of ₹3,630 Cr with 12% OPM and 27% ROE — its best performance yet. Future (FY26–FY28): ASK Automotive’s focus on EV-compatible lightweighting, thermal management systems, and global JVs positions it for 15–18% CAGR growth. The upcoming Bengaluru plant (₹200 Cr capex) and 9.9 MW solar facility are expected to boost both capacity and sustainability credentials. ASK Automotive represents a rare blend of technical strength, financial soundness, and industry leadership. With a clear growth trajectory, expanding institutional interest, and consistent operational excellence, it holds the potential to become one of India’s top-performing auto ancillary stocks in the coming decade.
NSE:ASKAUTOLTDLong
by TradZoo
Price action of Jubilant Agri and Consumer Products LimitedThe price action of Jubilant Agri and Consumer Products Limited ( NSE:JUBLCPL ) on a 4-hour timeframe. The stock recently showed a significant bullish signal after a period of decline within a well-defined upward channel. Key Signals The price has rebounded from the lower end of the channel, forming support close to ₹2,080–₹2,100 levels.​ The latest candle has crossed above the 200 EMA, a widely watched moving average for trend confirmation.​ A bullish MACD divergence is indicated, suggesting a momentum shift and potential for price reversal. Also (Bulish Continuation wedge is formed ) - A Bullish Continuation Wedge signals a brief pause within an ongoing uptrend. It forms between two downward-sloping, converging trendlines as sellers temporarily gain control. However, the pattern ultimately favors the bulls—when price breaks above the upper trendline, it confirms the resumption of the preceding upward trend. Analysis Trend: Bullish within channel; recent breakout suggests continuation​ Key Support: ₹2,080​ Immediate Resistance: ₹2,400–₹2,500 (mid-channel)​ Indicators: 200 EMA breakout, MACD bullish divergence​ Target: ₹3,000 or + (upper channel boundary)​ This analysis suggests a potential swing trading opportunity, provided the bullish signals are confirmed in subsequent sessions. Always consider risk management and market conditions before entering trades. PLEASE NOTE THAT: This chart analysis is only for reference purpose. This is not buying or selling recommendations. I am not SEBI registered. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trade
NSE:JUBLCPL
by hardeepssethi
BTCUSD RAINING BLO*D🩸 BTC slapped our sell-limit like it owed it money 💀 The setup looked clean — until the bulls said “Not today.” We’re running in drawdown, but structure still holds hope ⚔️ 📉 Current View: BTCUSD 1H — Price rejected around 115.9K–116.8K liquidity zone after a market structure shift (MSS) at 113.0K. Structure remains bearish unless daily closes above 116.8K. 📊 Key Levels: 🔴 Resistance/Sell Zone: 115.8K–116.8K (OB / liquidity) ⚫ Structure Break: 113.0K → below = continuation 🟢 Buy Re-entry/Demand Zones: 112.4K–111.7K | 109.8K–108.9K (golden pocket) 🧠 Trading Plan: • Bearish bias holds while below 116.8K → Target 113.0K then 109.8K • Bullish flip only if daily candle closes above 117K → Next target 119.5K–121.2K 📰 BTC Update: ETF inflows slow mid-October; CPI data due this week could spark volatility. Derivatives funding rates mildly positive — short-term long bias possible, but liquidity still favors downside traps. 💬 Trader’s Humor: “Sell-limit triggered, stop-loss flirting, and patience getting margin-called — just another day in crypto.” 😂 #BTCUSD #BitcoinAnalysis #CryptoTraders #SmartMoneyConcepts #PriceAction #ForexCommunity #CryptoSetup #TradingLife #TraderHumor #BitcoinForecast #CryptoAnalysis #LiquidityHunt #PriceActionTrading #CryptoCommunity #BTCSetup #ForexAndCrypto #alphatechfinances
ICMARKETS:BTCUSD
by VALHALLA-FX
XAUUSD – Gold Trading Plan: Fresh Record Highs & Fibo Zone React📊 Market Context Gold regained strong bullish momentum on Monday, surging to a new record high above 3,720 USD/oz. The Fed’s dovish outlook, signaling the possibility of two additional rate cuts this year, continues to support non-yielding assets like gold. At the same time, geopolitical risks remain a tailwind for safe-haven demand. 🔢 Technical Analysis (H2) Immediate Resistance / SELL Zones: 3,818.769 – Key reaction zone where sellers may defend aggressively. 3,754.890 – Secondary SELL zone reaction area for short-term pullbacks. Mid-Level Support / BUY Zone: 3,694.521 – First key area to watch for dips and potential buy reactions. 3,660.130 – Stronger support level if price pulls back deeper. Major BUY Zone Reaction: 3,583.663 – Critical confluence of structure and Fibonacci support, a potential bounce zone if a major correction unfolds. 📈 Suggested Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ Bullish Continuation Setup BUY: Look for pullbacks to 3,694–3,660 with bullish candlestick confirmation. Targets: 3,754 → 3,818, leave partial position open if momentum breaks higher. Stop Loss: Below 3,645 for safer positioning. 2️⃣ Countertrend SELL Setup SELL: Enter short at 3,754–3,818 zones only with strong rejection signals. Targets: 3,694 → 3,660, trail stops aggressively to lock profits. 3️⃣ Deep Correction Opportunity BUY: If price flushes to 3,583–3,585, consider scaling into longs. Targets: 3,660 → 3,754, aligning with the broader uptrend. ⚠ Key Trading Notes Expect increased volatility with Fed guidance and ongoing geopolitical risks. Use smaller position sizes near resistance zones and employ stop-loss discipline. Avoid mid-range entries; focus on well-defined zones for optimal risk-to-reward setups. 💬 Community Discussion 📊 Will gold sustain its rally toward 3,818 or see a deep pullback before another leg higher? Share your charts and insights below so we can compare strategies!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FranCis-MatrixFibo
Volatility–Momentum–Trend (VMT) Model🔎 Intro / Overview Three-indicator confirmation using Bollinger Bands (BB) , MACD , and RSI to align trend and price action. BB often detects the move first (least lag), MACD follows the BB trend (mid reaction), and RSI confirms last (most lag). This staged confirmation helps reduce false signals and keeps entries disciplined. ___________________________________________________________ 📔 Concept • Bollinger Bands (BB) → Early detector at volatility extremes. – Buy : Price first moves outside the lower band , then a candle closes back above lower band → early bullish alert. – Sell : Price first moves outside the upper band , then a candle closes back below upper band → early bearish alert. • MACD → Momentum confirmer. – Buy : MACD crossover above its signal line supports the bullish shift. – Sell : MACD crossunder below its signal line supports the bearish shift. • RSI → Final confirmation (filters traps). – Buy : RSI crosses above its moving average, confirming bullish momentum. – Sell : RSI crosses below its moving average, confirming bearish momentum. ✅ Only when BB + MACD + RSI all align in the same direction is the signal confirmed. Notes: - BB often reacts first (fastest, but prone to false starts). - MACD provides mid-reaction confirmation. - RSI lags but acts as the strongest filter against false trades. Notes: Sometimes BB reacts immediately; MACD/RSI can prevent traps. At times BB+MACD demand a trade but RSI rejects (good filter); other times RSI demands but BB+MACD filter it. ___________________________________________________________ 📌 How to Use 🔴 Sell Signal 1) BB: Price first extends outside upper band in an up-move, then a candle closes back under the upper band → BB sell signal. 2) MACD: Crossunder of MACD line below signal line. 3) RSI: RSI crosses below its moving average → final confirmation. ✅ All three aligned = Valid Sell. 🟢 Buy Signal 1) BB: Price first extends outside lower band in a down-move, then a candle closes back above the lower band → BB buy signal. 2) MACD: Crossover of MACD line above signal line. 3) RSI: RSI crosses above its moving average → final confirmation. ✅ All three aligned = Valid Buy. ___________________________________________________________ 🎯 Trading Plan • Entry → Only when all three confirm in the same direction. • Stop Loss → - Stop-Loss → Near the structure swing that formed when BB first detected the signal (e.g., recent swing high for shorts / swing low for longs). • Target → At least 1R ; scale/exit remainder using ATR, Fibonacci levels, or box trailing to ride trend. ___________________________________________________________ 📊 Chart Explanation Symbol/TF: BANKNIFTY · 1H 1) 20 Aug · 10:15 — SELL • BB detected first, MACD mid-reaction (after ~2 candles), RSI confirmed last → Entry @ 55,676.30 • Target @ 55,387.05 • Stop-loss @ 55,965.55 • 🎯 Target hit on 22 Aug · 09:15 . • Remaining lots can be trailed using ATR , Fibonacci levels , or Box Trailing to ride the extended trend 2) 29 Aug · 10:15 — FILTERED SELL • BB and MACD demanded sell, but RSI did not confirm → No trade; RSI saved a false signal. • 🦋 “The aqua dots represent false signals. At times, BB detects early entries but RSI and MACD do not confirm. Sometimes BB and MACD align, but RSI rejects the move. Other times BB and RSI confirm, yet MACD signals false. ✅ Only when all three align together is the signal valid.” 3) 01 Sep · 13:12 — BUY • All three aligned long • Entry @ 53,917.05 • Target @ 54,121.50 • Stop-loss @ 53,712.60 • 🎯 Target hit. • Remaining lots can be trailed using ATR , Fibonacci levels , or Box Trailing to ride the extended trend 👉🏼 “A Sell setup looked promising today, but MACD did not confirm the trend ❌. With BB, RSI, and MACD now nearing alignment, the next reversal opportunity will be valid only when all three confirm together ✅.” ___________________________________________________________ 👀 Observation • BB provides the earliest cue; MACD validates momentum shift; RSI filters late-stage traps. • Most reliable signals occur near key structure (support/resistance) with confluence. • Not all alignments are equal—strength improves with decisive closes and supportive volume. ___________________________________________________________ ❗ Why It Matters? •A rule-based, three-step confirmation reduces noise and emotions. •It clarifies when to enter , when to skip , and how to manage risk consistently across changing market conditions. ___________________________________________________________ 🎯 Conclusion BB → detect , MACD → follow , RSI → confirm . When all three align, entries are clearer and risk is defined. 🔥 Patterns don’t predict. Rules protect. 🚀 ___________________________________________________________ ⚠️ Disclaimer 📘 For educational purposes only. 🙅 Not SEBI registered. ❌ Not a buy/sell recommendation. 🧠 Purely a learning resource. 📊 Not Financial Advice.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by MarketAlgoBot
USD/JPY(20250910)Today's AnalysisMarket News: U.S. employment data was significantly revised downward, with the number of jobs for the 12 months ending in March revised down by 911,000. Technical Analysis: Today's Buy/Sell Levels: 147.08 Support and Resistance Levels: 148.32 147.85 147.55 146.60 146.30 145.84 Trading Strategy: On a breakout above 147.55, consider a buy entry, with the first target at 147.85. On a breakout below 147.08, consider a sell entry, with the first target at 146.60
Short
by BullMarketKing
SEBI Expedites IPO Approvals: A Deep Dive into India’s Capital SEBI Expedites IPO Approvals: A Deep Dive into India’s Capital Market Shift 1. Introduction The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has recently undertaken a significant step—fast-tracking Initial Public Offering (IPO) approvals. Traditionally, IPO approval in India has been a lengthy process, often stretching to six months. But SEBI’s new measures aim to cut this time nearly in half, potentially bringing it down to three months or less. This shift comes at a time when India’s equity markets are booming, with record levels of fundraising expected in 2025. After raising around $20.5 billion through IPOs in 2024, analysts predict that 2025 could surpass this figure. According to reports, $8.2 billion has already been raised so far in 2025, with an additional $13 billion in IPOs already approved and nearly ₹18.7 billion pending approval. 2. Why SEBI is Expediting IPO Approvals Several factors are driving SEBI to accelerate the IPO pipeline: Surging Investor Appetite Indian retail participation in stock markets has seen an explosion in recent years. Over 11 crore Demat accounts are active as of 2025, compared to just 3.6 crore in 2019. More retail investors mean more demand for IPOs, making faster approvals essential. Global Capital Flows India is seen as one of the fastest-growing large economies. With global investors diversifying away from China, India is attracting billions in Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPIs). A streamlined IPO process will help India capture this liquidity flow before it moves elsewhere. Boosting Startup Ecosystem Unicorns like PhysicsWallah, Urban Company, and WeWork India are preparing for listings. Startups require quicker capital-raising routes to compete globally. Regulatory Efficiency and AI Adoption SEBI is now deploying AI-powered document screening tools to check IPO filings. This reduces human delays and allows faster compliance checks. Collaboration with merchant bankers and exchanges has also been strengthened. Record Fundraising Target SEBI expects India to break the $20B mark again in 2025, possibly setting an all-time record. Expedited approvals are central to making this happen. 3. How the New Approval System Works Traditionally, IPO approvals involved multiple manual steps: Filing of Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP). SEBI reviews disclosures, company financials, risk factors, and governance. Queries are raised with the company, leading to back-and-forth communication. Final approval takes 4–6 months. Now under the fast-track mechanism: AI Pre-Screening: Automated checks scan filings for missing data, compliance issues, and inconsistencies. Concurrent Review: Instead of sequential reviews, SEBI, merchant bankers, and exchanges review documents simultaneously. Time-Bound Queries: Companies are given strict deadlines to respond to SEBI’s queries. Standardization: Risk disclosure formats and governance checks are now standardized across sectors. This is expected to cut approval timelines by 40–50%. 4. IPO Pipeline for 2025 Some big-ticket IPOs in the pipeline include: PhysicsWallah (₹3,820 crore) – Edtech unicorn expanding into AI-driven education. Urban Company – Already raised ₹854 crore from anchor investors; IPO opening soon. LG Electronics India – Large consumer electronics brand targeting India’s growing tech-savvy population. WeWork India – Despite global challenges, the Indian arm remains profitable and expansion-focused. Credila Financial Services – Education loan subsidiary of HDFC, a high-demand financial segment. The SME IPO market is equally hot with listings like Goel Construction debuting at a 15% premium and Prozeal Green Energy getting SEBI approval. 5. Benefits of Faster IPO Approvals For Companies Quicker access to capital for expansion. Ability to capitalize on favorable market sentiment without delays. Reduced costs of prolonged regulatory processes. For Investors More frequent and diverse IPO opportunities. Increased transparency due to standardized disclosures. Higher liquidity as more firms enter the public market. For Indian Markets Strengthened image of India as an investment hub. Alignment with global best practices (US SEC and Hong Kong’s IPO process are faster). Improved global competitiveness for Indian startups. 6. Risks and Challenges Speed vs. Quality Faster approvals must not compromise on due diligence. Weak companies slipping through could hurt investor trust. Market Saturation Too many IPOs in a short span could lead to oversupply, reducing listing gains. Retail Investor Overexposure Retail investors may flock to IPOs without understanding fundamentals, increasing risk of losses. Global Volatility Geopolitical tensions, US interest rate decisions, or oil price shocks can derail IPO plans. 7. Global Context Globally, IPO markets have been mixed: US Markets: Tech IPOs are recovering but still face valuation pressure. China: Tighter regulations have slowed down IPO fundraising. Middle East: Saudi Arabia and UAE continue to see large IPOs in energy and infrastructure. In this scenario, India is positioning itself as a global IPO leader, especially in the tech and services sector. 8. Investor Strategy for 2025 IPOs For investors, the IPO rush creates both opportunities and challenges. Some strategies include: Focus on Fundamentals Look for companies with strong financials, governance, and growth potential. Avoid IPOs driven purely by hype. Anchor Investor Signals Strong anchor participation (like Urban Company’s ₹854 Cr funding) signals institutional confidence. Sector Plays Edtech, Renewable Energy, Fintech, and Consumer Services are hot sectors. Traditional sectors like construction and manufacturing are also showing resilience. Listing Gains vs. Long-Term Holding Some IPOs (like Goel Construction SME) deliver quick listing pops. Larger IPOs (like PhysicsWallah, Urban Company) may be better for long-term growth. 9. Case Study: Urban Company IPO Urban Company is a prime example of SEBI’s faster approval ecosystem. Filed DRHP earlier in 2025. Received SEBI approval within 12 weeks. Raised ₹854 crore from anchors before IPO launch. Price band set at the higher end, reflecting strong demand. Market analysts project strong long-term growth given India’s rising demand for home services. This showcases how SEBI’s new process benefits both issuers and investors. 10. Conclusion SEBI’s decision to expedite IPO approvals is a game-changer for India’s financial markets. By cutting approval times, using AI-driven compliance, and standardizing processes, SEBI is creating a faster, more transparent, and investor-friendly IPO environment. With major companies like PhysicsWallah, Urban Company, Neilsoft, and Prozeal entering the market, and regulatory support from SEBI, 2025 is poised to be a record-breaking year for IPO fundraising in India. However, investors must balance enthusiasm with caution—choosing fundamentally strong IPOs, monitoring global market conditions, and avoiding blind bets driven by hype. In essence, SEBI’s move reflects India’s ambition to emerge as a global capital-raising hub, connecting domestic growth stories with global capital at unprecedented speed and scale.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by MarketPulsePros
2
NIFTY50 index levelsKey Levels & Swing Trade Outlook (1-Hour Timeframe) Resistance & Support (Broader Technical View) Key Resistance Zones: 24,900–25,000 range (daily level)—a critical breakout area Slightly higher potential if breakout occurs, toward 25,200+ Immediate Support Zones: 24,750–24,800 level Broader range support at 24,620–24,700 More defensive base near 24,400 (longer-term) Intraday Pivot Levels (Based on latest derived pivots) From Moneycontrol, for the current trading session: Classic Pivot R1: 24,855 | R2: 24,937 | R3: 24,989 Classic Pivot S1: 24,721 | S2: 24,669 | S3: 24,587 1-Hour Swing Trading Perspective Although explicit 1-hour pivot data is not readily available, we can infer swing strategies using the broader technical context and typical indicators: 1-Hour Swing Fundamentals: Use short-term moving averages (e.g., 20/50 EMA) to gauge trend direction. The index is trading above these on shorter timeframes, suggesting intraday bullish bias Common indicators: RSI, Bollinger Bands, MACD, etc.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by GlobalTradeHub
2
Gold sentiment Here is a detailed technical and sentiment analysis for gold incorporating RSI, MACD, Ichimoku, and Volume, based on the charts and data you provided, followed by a concrete trading strategy. Overall Sentiment: Bullish Exhaustion at a Critical Juncture The market is in a state of powerful bullish momentum fueled by weak economic data (NFP) but is showing clear technical signs of exhaustion and overbought conditions. This creates a high-risk environment where a significant pullback is increasingly probable before any next leg up. --- Technical Indicator Analysis While your charts don't show the indicators directly, we can infer their likely state based on the price action and standard settings. 1. Relative Strength Index (RSI - Typically 14-period): · Likely Reading: On the Daily (1D) and 4H charts, the RSI is almost certainly in overbought territory (above 70, likely even above 80). · Analysis: This confirms the market is overbought. The minor pullbacks on the 2H and 4H charts (shown by the small red candles) are likely causing the RSI to dip from extreme levels, but it remains elevated. This is a classic warning sign of a potential reversal or consolidation. 2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD - Typically 12,26,9): · Likely Reading: On all timeframes, the MACD is above its signal line and at or near extreme highs. · Analysis: This supports the strong bullish momentum. However, on the shorter timeframes (2H, 4H), we should be watching for bearish divergence (price making equal or higher highs while the MACD makes lower highs). This would be a strong short-term sell signal. The current consolidation increases the probability of this divergence forming. 3. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo: · Price vs. Cloud (Kumo): The price is ** dramatically above the Senkou Span (Cloud)** on the daily chart. This indicates an extremely strong bullish trend but also a massive extension from its mean, suggesting a pullback towards the cloud is a high probability. · Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line) vs. Kijun-sen (Base Line): The Tenkan-sen is almost certainly far above the Kijun-sen, confirming the strong trend. A crossing below would be a strong short-term bearish signal. · Future Cloud: The cloud is likely bullish (green) and thinning, suggesting underlying trend strength but potential for volatility. 4. Volume: · Analysis: The COT report is a form of volume analysis. The ** surge in open interest (+49,148 contracts)** from the 09/02 report, driven by new speculator longs, represents a massive influx of volume and commitment. However, this often marks climactic buying, not a sustainable pace. In the price charts, the consolidation near the highs on declining volume would be a bearish sign, indicating a lack of new buyers at these levels. Synthesis of All Factors Factor Analysis Implication Fundamental (NFP) Very Bullish. Weak data = weak USD, dovish Fed. Long-term trend is UP. COT (Speculative Sentiment) Extremely Bullish (Overheated). Record net long positioning. High short-term risk of a sharp pullback. Price Trend Bullish but Stalling. Consolidating at all-time highs. Indecision; potential exhaustion. RSI Overbought on higher timeframes. Suggests a correction is due. MACD Bullish but potential for bearish divergence. Momentum may be waning. Ichimoku Price extremely extended from Cloud. Suggests a pullback is likely. Volume (via COT) Climactic buying. Often marks a short-term peak. --- Trading Strategy for Today Core Principle: The trend is still up, but the risk/reward for new long entries at the current price is very poor. The optimal strategy is to wait for a technical correction to buy into strength or prepare for a reversal signal. Scenario 1: Wait for a Pullback to Buy (Highest Probability & Prudence) · Idea: Use the overbought signals and Ichimoku analysis to anticipate a pullback to a stronger support zone. · Entry Zone: $3,480 - $3,520. This area aligns with previous resistance (now support) and a potential pullback towards the rising Tenkan-sen or Kijun-sen on the 4H chart. · Confirmation: Look for bullish reversal candlesticks (hammer, bullish engulfing) and an RSI pulling back towards 50 (but not oversold). · Stop Loss: A daily close below $3,450. · Target: A move back towards the highs at $3,580 - $3,600. Scenario 2: Breakout Trade (Lower Probability, Higher Risk) · Idea: If the bullish momentum ignores all overbought signals. · Entry: A sustained 4H or daily close above $3,610. · Confirmation: The MACD should make a new high (avoiding divergence) and volume should increase on the breakout. · Stop Loss: Below $3,590. · Target: $3,650 - $3,680. Use a trailing stop. Scenario 3: Aggressive Fade (For Experienced Traders) · Idea: Fade the extreme bullish sentiment using bearish divergence and overbought RSI. · Entry: On a clear bearish divergence on the 4H MACD (price makes a new high, MACD makes a lower high) AND a rejection from the $3,590 - $3,600 resistance level. · Stop Loss: A close above $3,610. · Target: $3,520 - $3,540. Key Risk Management Note: · NFP Event Risk: The next NFP release is TODAY (Sep 09, 19:30 GMT). This will cause massive, unpredictable volatility. · Action: DO NOT enter new positions before this release. The market's reaction to the news will dictate the next major direction. If you are in a position, strongly consider reducing size or hedging. Summary Table for Action Strategy Entry Stop Loss Target Confidence Pullback Buy $3,480 - $3,520 < $3,450 $3,580 - $3,600 High Breakout Buy $3,610 < $3,590 $3,650 - $3,680 Low Aggressive Fade ~$3,595 + Divergence $3,610 $3,520 - $3,540 Medium Final Conclusion: The technical indicators (RSI, MACD, Ichimoku) all align with the COT data to scream "Overbought!" The fundamental driver is strong, but the market needs to cool off. The best trade is no trade until after the NFP news or a pullback into support. Patience will be rewarded with a much better risk-to-reward entry.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by Rakeshkanmuse0_6
USD/JPY(202509008Today's AnalysisMarket News: Non-farm payroll growth fell significantly short of expectations, with June's data revised downward to negative territory, marking the first contraction since 2020. The unemployment rate hit a nearly four-year high. Technical Analysis: Today's buy/sell levels: 147.57 Support and resistance levels: 149.28 148.64 148.23 146.92 146.51 145.87 Trading Strategy: On a breakout above 148.23, consider a buy entry, with the first target price being 148.64. On a breakout below 147.57, consider a sell entry, with the first target price being 146.92
Long
by BullMarketKing
AUDJPY SELLSCurrent price action is bearish, with downside momentum confirming bearish order flow. Before considering shorts, I reviewed where price previously pushed higher and identified a key daily demand zone — an unmitigated wick that sparked the last major bullish move. This is important context: even though the 4H structure is bearish, bulls could still step in with enough volume to break supply. I unfortunately missed the long entry at that demand zone, which would have been an ideal trap for a win–win scenario. For now, I’ve marked the nearest supply zone. Price just missed tapping into it, so I’ll patiently wait for when it taps. And then I’ll look for confirmation to enter shorts if the opportunity sets up.
Short
by Tilen_FX
BTC Update 15th august BTC recovers the inefficiency left on10th July, bouncing on the support level at 111K and returning on the last target, in the red zone. From a technical point, this is could be forecast following the empty zone, as the wick on July 14th, which underlines a POL (point of liquidity), also supported by the heatmap liquidation. Fundamentally, this new sphere of positivity and institutional adoption is helping BTC's rally to conclude this cycle with the utter targets. The grow in the past cycle is been sustained- less hyped than the previous two. Both due to the high currency price of the Big coin, which makes difficult have a high percentage changes in short time, and due the consistent consolidation of the VIX index. At the same time, the entrance of new institutional players, as side general traders, investors and big whales, has stabilized a bit the market in terms of entrance and exit, make it more forecastable and stable. New targets in the next post. Thanks for reading, M
by itsmcasalinii
GOLD SURGES AFTER CPI – TARGETING 337x BEFORE SELL-OFF? MMFLOW TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 📌 Market Overview Following the CPI release, gold reacted with strong buying momentum (FOMO BUY), pushing prices swiftly from the 333x area up to 335x. The main driver here is the BUY side taking advantage of remaining liquidity gaps above, aiming to break through the critical 3358 resistance – the first major barrier before reaching 337x, a key equilibrium zone that previously acted as a strong price-holding area for SELL orders. Current structure indicates: Short-term trend: Bullish, but approaching key distribution levels. Liquidity Hunt: A decisive break above 3358 with strong volume could trigger a rapid move towards 337x, activating SELL volume from pending limit orders. Macro context: No major news events today, with expected daily range ~35–40 points, increasing the chance of range-bound traps before a breakout. 🧐 Technical Outlook – MMFLOW View Market Structure: Gold has formed a Higher Low around 333x and is now testing short-term resistance. Key Levels & Liquidity Zones: Liquidity BUY ZONE at 3338–3336 has reacted well, confirming BUYers are still defending this zone. Supply Zone / CP Zone at 3375–3377 aligns with an H1 Order Block, holding a high concentration of pending SELL orders. Volume Flow: Increasing volume as price approaches resistance suggests a potential “last push” before a reversal. 🎯 MMFLOW Trading Plan 🔹 BUY SCALP – Following the main trend Entry: 3338 – 3336 SL: 3332 TP: 3342 – 3346 – 3350 – 3355 – 3360 – 3370 – 3380 🔹 SELL SCALP – At the distribution zone Entry: 3375 – 3377 SL: 3382 TP: 3370 – 3365 – 3360 – 3355 – 3350 – 3340 📊 Key Technical Levels Resistance: 3358 – 3365 – 3376 Support: 3342 – 3337 – 3330 – 3310 💡 MMFLOW Insight: With the current setup, the optimal strategy is to wait for a BUY opportunity near early support (334x) to ride the short-term bullish momentum, then watch for price reaction at 337x to catch potential SELL entries once top-side liquidity is swept.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(12/08/2025)Bank Nifty is likely to open with a gap-up, indicating strong bullish sentiment at the start. If the index sustains above 55,550–55,600, buying momentum may push it toward 55,750, 55,850, and 55,950+. Further strength can be expected if it breaks above 56,050, opening the path for 56,250, 56,350, and 56,450+. On the downside, weakness could emerge if Bank Nifty falls below 55,450–55,400, which may lead to a decline toward 55,250, 55,150, and 55,050-. Price action around the 55,550 zone will be crucial in deciding intraday direction, so traders should wait for confirmation before entering trades and maintain strict stop-losses.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TradZoo