Analysis
DLF - Reversal and BreakoutTells Me: It seems that the price of the DLF had reached a point where it couldn't break through a support level, but instead began to rise again, indicating a potential reversal towards a new uptrend.
The Double Bottom pattern formed during a downtrend as the price reaches two distinct lows at roughly the same price level.
Eventually, the price of Dlf breaks out above the highest high point, which confirms the bullish signal and indicates that the Dlf price may be on an upward trajectory.
Tata Motors- hidden bullish divergenceA hidden bullish divergence is a setup where the indicator forms progressively lower lows at the same time that the price is forming higher lows.
Here in tata motors daily chart same has happened.
- price has been in consolidation or has performed a pullback from an uptrend,, indicates that price still has some upside momentum and that any pullback is more likely the outcome of profit taking from previous buyers as opposed to strong selling.
-Here, we can see that the RSI formed lower lows at the same time the price formed higher lows. The period of divergence occurred at the time that price was pulling back in a retracement move.
Note: This chart is just for educational purpose and not for any trading purpose.
Price / Earnings: Interpretation #1In one of my first posts , I talked about the main idea of my investment strategy: buy great “things” during the sales season . This rule can be applied to any object of the material world: real estate, cars, clothes, food and, of course, shares of public companies.
However, a seemingly simple idea requires the ability to understand both the quality of “things” and their value. Suppose we have solved the issue with quality (*).
(*) A very bold assumption, I realize that. However, the following posts will cover this topic in more detail. Be a little patient.
So, we know the signs of a high-quality thing and are able to define it skilfully enough. But what about its cost?
"Easy-peasy!" you will say, "For example, I know that the Mercedes-Benz plant produces high-quality cars, so I should just find out the prices for a certain model in different car dealerships and choose the cheapest one."
"Great plan!" I will say. But what about shares of public companies? Even if you find a fundamentally strong company, how do you know if it is expensive or cheap?
Let's imagine that the company is also a machine. A machine that makes profit. It needs to be fed with resources, things are happening in there, some cogs are turning, and as a result we get earnings. This is its main goal and purpose.
Each machine has its own name, such as Apple or McDonald's. It has its own resources and mechanisms, but it produces one product – earnings.
Now let’s suppose that the capitalization of the company is the value of such a machine. Let's see how much Apple and McDonald's cost today:
Apple - $2.538 trillion
McDonald's - $202.552 billion
We see that Apple is more than 10 times more expensive than McDonald's. But is it really so from an investor's point of view?
The paradox is that we can't say for sure that Apple is 10 times more expensive than McDonald's until we divide each company's value by its earnings. Why exactly? Let's count and it will become clear:
Apple's diluted net income - $99.803 a year
McDonald's diluted net income - $6.177 billion a year
Now read this phrase slowly, and if necessary, several times: “The value is what we pay now. Earnings are what we get all the time” .
To understand how many dollars we need to pay now for the production of 1 dollar of profit a year, we need to divide the value of the company (its capitalization) by its annual profit. We get:
Apple - $25.43
McDonald’s - $32.79
It turns out that in order to get $1 profit a year, for Apple we need to pay $25.43, and for McDonald's - $32.79. Wow!
Currently, I believe that Apple appears cheaper than McDonald's.
To remember this information better, imagine two machines that produce one-dollar bills at the same rate (once a year). In the case of an Apple machine, you pay $25.43 to issue this bill, and in the case of a McDonald’s machine, you pay $32.70. Which one will you choose?
So, if we remove the $ symbol from these numbers, we get the world's most famous financial ratio Price/Earnings or P/E . It shows how much we, as investors, need to pay for the production of 1 unit of annual profit. And pay only once.
There are two formulas for calculating this financial ratio:
1. P/E = Price of 1 share / Diluted EPS
2. P/E = Capitalization / Diluted Net Income
Whatever formula you use, the result will be the same. By the way, I mainly use the Diluted Net Income instead of the regular one in my calculations. So do not be confused if you see a formula with a Net Income – you can calculate it this way as well.
So, in the current publication, I have analyzed one of the interpretations of this financial ratio. But, in fact, there is another interpretation that I really like. It will help you realize which P/E level to choose for yourself. But more on that in the next post. See you!
BALRAMCHINBALRAMCHIN:- Double bottom pattern is formed, wait for breakout of neckline, till then keep an eye on the stock
Hello traders,
As always, simple and neat charts so everyone can understand and not make it too complicated.
rest details mentioned in the chart.
will be posting more such ideas like this. Until that, like share and follow :)
check my other ideas to get to know about all the successful trades based on price action.
Thanks,
Ajay.
keep learning and keep earning.
AUD/JPY Near Important Level.price has reached near previous 25 days high, at an important level of 90.15 , if this level is broken than the price can go upto a target of 90.900 and then 91.33. price is above 200 moving average right now if it shows weakness and closes below 200 MA than a short trade can be taken below 89.5 and target of 88.65 can be achieved .
note- trade must be taken only after an 1 hr candle close below/above the level.
watch out for Atul Auto reversal anytimeElliot wave corrective mode to get over soon.
Chart is self explanatory, only Elliot wave analysis and no indicators used.
This chart is for educational purpose.
Traders who use Elliott wave theory often look for the completion of wave c as a potential entry point for a trade in the direction of the larger trend. However, it's important to note that Elliott wave theory is just one tool among many for analyzing markets, and traders should use other technical and fundamental analysis methods to confirm their trading decisions.
How to trade possible short term setup on IndusInd bank ltd?How To trade ABC pattern formation on 30 Mins chart of IndusInd bank ltd
1. Price has formed ABC pattern on 30 mins chart (clearly marked as points ABC on chart).
2. A-B retracement is approx. 0.50% which is acceptable criteria for A-B retracement.
3. Marked fibonacci levels (0, 0.236 and 0.382) by using fibonacci tools on range B To C.
4. On this ABC setup, Price crossed 0.382 first time on 23rd march 2023 (marked the date on chart as well) and retraced back to 0.236 and 0.382 levels of fibonnaci and hovering around the same levels.
5. IMPORTANT: Wait for price to cross again 0.382 fibonacci levels , which is price as 1027 (also in chart marked as entry level) keeping stop loss of 1010 (which is below 0.236 fibonacci levels) for the target of 1073.65-1086.55 (which is Point B candle low and high price)
6. RSI divergence occurred as well and same has been marked on charts, which is good indication
7. On fundamental grounds: IndusInd Bank Ltd.’s Revenue was higher than average estimate 3 times in past 3 years.
Note for everyone who came across this study:
This is only for educational purpose.
This is not buying or selling recommendations.
I am not SEBI registered.
Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trade.
Double Bottom Pattern Formation #TESLATime Frame: 30 Min | Pattern: W Pattern | Entry: 201 | Take Profit: 13.74% | Stop Loss: Below Resistance line at 200
A W pattern has been identified on the 30-minute chart of Tesla (TSLA), with a confirmed breakout at 200.67. The pattern formation suggests an uptrend of 13.74%, which could serve as a take profit target. The entry point could be at 201, with a stop loss placed below the resistance line at 200, which has acted as a strong barrier in the past. Please note that this is a measurement idea, and past performance does not guarantee future results. As with any trade, it is important to manage risk and trade responsibly. Best of luck!
What can financial ratios tell us?In the previous post we learned what financial ratios are. These are ratios of various indicators from financial statements that help us draw conclusions about the fundamental strength of a company and its investment attractiveness. In the same post, I listed the financial ratios that I use in my strategy, with formulas for their calculations.
Now let's take apart each of them and try to understand what they can tell us.
- Diluted EPS . Some time ago I have already told about the essence of this indicator. I would like to add that this is the most influential indicator on the stock market. Financial analysts of investment companies literally compete in forecasts, what will be EPS in forthcoming reports of the company. If they agree that EPS will be positive, but what actually happens is that it is negative, the stock price may fall quite dramatically. Conversely, if EPS comes out above expectations - the stock is likely to rise strongly during the coverage period.
- Price to Diluted EPS ratio . This is perhaps the best-known financial ratio for evaluating a company's investment appeal. It gives you an idea of how many years your investment in a stock will pay off if the current EPS is maintained. I have a particular take on this ratio, so I plan to devote a separate publication to it.
- Gross margin, % . This is the size of the markup to the cost of the company's product (service) or, in other words, margin . It is impossible to say that small margin is bad, and large - good. Different companies may have different margins. Some sell millions of products by small margins and some sell thousands by large margins. And both of those companies may have the same gross margins. However, my preference is for those companies whose margins grow over time. This means that either the prices of the company's products (services) are going up, or the company is cutting production costs.
- Operating expense ratio . This ratio is a great indicator of management's ability to manage a company's expenses. If the revenue increases and this ratio decreases, it means that the management is skillfully optimizing the operating expenses. If it is the other way around, shareholders should wonder how well management is handling current affairs.
- ROE, % is a ratio reflecting the efficiency of a company's equity performance. If a company earned 5% of its equity, i.e. ROE = 5%, and the bank deposit rate = 7%, then shareholders have a reasonable question: why invest equity in business development, if it can be placed in a bank deposit and get more, without expending extra effort? In other words, ROE, % reflects the return on invested equity. If it is growing, it is definitely a positive factor for the company and the shareholders.
- Days payable . This financial ratio is an excellent indicator of the solvency of the company. We can say that it is the number of days it will take the company to pay all debts to suppliers from its revenue. If the number of days is relatively small, it means that the company has no delays in paying for supplies and therefore no money problems. I consider less than 30 days to be acceptable, but over 90 days is critical.
- Days sales outstanding . I already mentioned in my previous posts that when a company is having a bad sales situation, it may even sell its products on credit. Such debts accumulate in accounts receivable. Obviously, large accounts receivable are a risk for the company, because the debts may simply not be paid back. For ease of control over this indicator, they invented such a financial ratio as "Days sales outstanding". We can say that this is the number of days it will take the company to earn revenue equivalent to the accounts receivable. It's one thing if the receivables are 365 daily revenue and another if it's only 10 daily revenue. Like the previous ratio: less than 30 days is acceptable to me, but over 90 days is critical.
- Inventory to revenue ratio . This is the amount of inventory in relation to revenue. Since inventory includes not only raw materials but also unsold products, this ratio can indicate sales problems. The more inventory a company has in relation to revenue, the worse it is. A ratio below 0.25 is acceptable to me; a ratio above 0.5 indicates that there are problems with sales.
- Current ratio . This is the ratio of current assets to current liabilities. Remember, we said that current assets are easier and faster to sell than non-current, so they are also called quick assets. In the event of a crisis and lack of profit in the company, quick assets can be an excellent help to make payments on debts and settlements with suppliers. After all, they can be sold quickly enough to pay off these liabilities. To understand the size of this "safety cushion", the current ratio is calculated. The larger it is, the better. For me, a suitable current ratio is 2 or higher. But below 1 it does not suit me.
- Interest coverage . We already know that loans play an important role in a company's operations. However, I am convinced that this role should not be the main one. If a company spends all of its profits to pay interest on loans, it is working for the bank, not for the shareholders. To find out how tangible interest on loans is for the company, the "Interest coverage" ratio was invented. According to the income statement, interest on loans is paid out of operating income. So if we divide the operating income by this interest, we get this ratio. It shows us how many times more the company earns than it spends on debt service. To me, the acceptable coverage ratio should be above 6, and below 3 is weak.
- Debt to revenue ratio . This is a useful ratio that shows the overall picture of the company's debt situation. It can be interpreted the following way: it shows how much revenue should be earned in order to close all the debts. A debt to revenue ratio of less than 0.5 is positive. It means that half (or even less) of the annual revenue will be enough to close the debt. A debt to revenue ratio higher than 1 is considered a serious problem since the company does not even have enough annual revenue to pay off all of its debts.
So, the financial ratios greatly simplify the process of fundamental analysis, because they allow you to quickly draw conclusions about the financial condition of the company, without looking up and down at its statements. You just look at ratios of key indicators and draw conclusions.
In the next post, I will tell you about the king of all financial ratios - the Price to Diluted EPS ratio, or simply P/E. See you soon!
Bitcoin chart , direction is clearas the upper line is working as a trend line for btc but not along with its range as the ends the market will move against the sentiments,
beware with your trade the fluctuation will not be slight , it would be highly volatile
for further details
stay connected and stay tuned
thanks!
Wedge pattern breakdown in WHIRLPOOLWHIRLPOOL
Key highlights: 💡⚡
✅On 2hr Time Frame Stock Showing Breakdown of wedge Pattern .
✅ Strong bearish Candlestick Form on this timeframe.
✅It can give movement up to the Breakdown target of 1230-.
✅Can Go short in this stock by placing a stop loss above 1310+.
✅breakout this can give risk:reward upto 1:7+.
Double bottom pattern in BAJFINANCE BAJFINANCE
Key highlights: 💡
✅On 2Hr Time Frame Stock Showing Reversal of Double bottom Pattern .
✅ It can give movement upto the Reversal target of above 5890+.
✅There have chances of Breakout of resistance level too.
✅ After Breakout of resistance level this stock can gives strong upside rally upto above 6255+
Morning Mantra 29th March, 2023Dear All,
Yesterday was the day of consolidation , where nifty had traded in a choppy zone .
Still 16800 is a hope for the Bulls as a support and most of the Bulls are eagerly waiting for a breakout of 17180 on closing basis.
As of now be cautious and keep following cherry picking strategy.
Regards ,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Btc shows triple bottom in short time this analysis have been good so far , you guys must have got the result in your wallet support me by liking and sharing my ideas to more audience for more effective work.
btc can reverse its price any moment as the sentiments show greed and temporary fear in the market.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 27 Mar 2023There are few important aspects to the price action today. We stuck to a small range today - it would have been good for intraday straddlers & short iron-fly, iron-condor strategy deployers.
So we opened inline at 39484, many would argue that it was a gap up. But i wouldnt say that because of the price action from the previous session.
As soon as we hit the last session's swing low, we got a bounce of 270 pts, but this did not sustain and we fell back to the same low point.
We had a second bounce of 268pts between 11.30 to 12.45 & as expected this did not sustain as well. and fell back to the low point of the day again.
Now between 13.25 to 14.35 we had the 3rd bounce of 383 pts & again we could not breakthrough the 39742 level. And we fell back to the low point of the day.
The important aspect in today's price action is we had 4 tests of 39300 levels today (see cyan markers from chart). And none of them gave away.
I am not saying that its a bullish sign, but its an area of importance. Either the volume traded today might be too low to create any volatility to break this zone or we may need some external triggers to break down.
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On NSE:BANKNIFTY minds i made 3 posts today
"$BANKNIFTY we need a break of support 38690 for strong bearish momentum" at 10.14
"$BANKNIFTY option prices are not providing clear direction" at 13.39
"$BANKNIFTY needs to take out 39742 to go bullish" at 14.39
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15mts TF is looking at a sideways movement, i was hoping was a retest of 38690 levels today - but that did not happen. Instead the 39300 level came to rescue. I am seriously considering to mark a new SR zone at 39310.
to view all 10 charts in today's discussion visit viswaram. com
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1hr TF is still bearish to me, agree its taking some time for the new leg to form. If there are no fundamental news triggers i am expecting the 38690 levels to be taken out this week itself. Keeping my fingers crossed
Double Bottom pattern reversal in DIVISLABDIVISLAB
Key highlights: 💡
✅On 1D Time Frame Stock Showing Reversal of Double bottom Pattern .
✅ It can give movement upto the Reversal target of above 2935+.
✅There have chances of Breakout of resistance level too.
✅ After Breakout of resistance level this stock can gives strong upside rally upto above 3130+