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AUDUSD

China tensions weigh on Aussie, NFP loomsThe Australian dollar is slightly higher in Thursday trade. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7756, up 0.12% on the day. On the fundamental front, the RBA releases its quarterly policy statement on Friday (1:00 GMT). Relations between China and Australia continue to spiral downwards. China has engaged in a trade war against Australia, which included tariffs on Australian wine exports in November. Last month, the Australian government made the unusual move of cancelling an infrastructure agreement between China and the State of Victoria, which was connected to China's Belt and Road initiative. Predictably, the move was harshly criticised by the Chinese government. The latest salvo was fired earlier on Thursday, as China said it was indefinitely suspending the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue. The dialogue has been frozen since 2017, so the move appears to be largely symbolic. The huge trading relationship between the countries will likely not be affected, such as Australian exports of iron ore to China. Still, the announcement of the suspension of the dialogue was enough to send the Australian dollar briefly lower. If there are further negative political developments between the two countries, the Aussie could face a bumpy road. All eyes will be on US nonfarm payrolls for April, which will be released on Friday (12:30 GMT). The ADP Employment Report is not considered a reliable gauge for the official NFP, but investors couldn't help notice that the ADP reading jumped to 742 thousand, up from 514 thousand. Nonfarm payrolls climbed to 916 thousand in March and with a forecast of 990 thousand, a reading above the symbolic one-million mark is certainly within reach. If nonfarm payrolls outperforms, risk sentiment would improve, which would be bearish for risk commodities like the Australian dollar.
by OANDA
Australian dollar dips as inflation missesThe Australian dollar is down slightly in the Wednesday session. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7747, down 0.27% on the day. Australian CPI posted a gain of 0.6% in the first quarter of the year, down from 0.9% in Q4 of 2020. The read was certainly respectable, but underperformed, as the estimate stood at 0.9%. Trimmed CPI, which excludes the most volatile items, dropped from 0.4% to 0.3% and missed the forecast of 0.5%. The weak readings have sent the Australian dollar lower. The lower than expected inflation numbers will lessen any pressure that was on the RBA to tighten policy due to stronger economic conditions. Australia has extricated itself in admirable fashion from the downturn due to Covid, although the vaccine rollout has been sluggish. The RBA has been cautious and says that it does not expect GDP or employment to reach pre-pandemic levels until later in the year. Once the economy reaches that level, there is a good chance that the RBA could tighten policy, such as easing QE, as we saw with the Bank of Canada earlier this month. What can we expect from the FOMC meeting later today (18:00 GMT)? Expectations for a dramatic announcement are low, as the Fed does not appear in any hurry to tighten policy, even with a rapidly improving US economy. The market seems to have bought into the Fed's message that even though inflationary pressures are growing, QE will not be reduced for a while yet. In follow-up comments to today's meeting, Fed Chair Powell is likely to wax positive about the economy but simultaneously state that the economy is still in recovery mood and needs the Fed to keep its foot on the pedal. Unless the Fed surprises with a more hawkish rate statement than expected, it should be "business as usual" after the meeting, which means that the US dollar could find itself under pressure from the major currencies. On the upside, 0.7813 has some breathing room in resistance as AUD has lost ground. Above, there is resistance at 0.7887. On the downside, there are support levels at 0.7688 and 0.7627
by OANDA
Australian dollar dips, CPI nextThe Australian dollar has reversed directions on Tuesday and recorded slight gains. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7781, down 0.22% on the day. Australian CPI showed a strong gain of 0.9% in the fourth quarter, and an identical gain is projected for the first quarter of the year. The economy is performing well, boosted by stronger demand for Australian commodities and ultra-low interest rates. Unemployment has been falling, undeterred by the end of the JobKeeper employment programme at the end of March. Not surprisingly, inflation is also showing strength, reflective of the positive economic conditions. Consumers are again spending, as Retail Sales rebounded in March with a gain of 1.4%, after a decline of 0.8% beforehand. This beat the forecast of 1.0%. The economy continues to grow after being reopened, and consumer spending is expected to be a key driver in the economic recovery. The RBA is projecting that GDP and employment will reach pre-pandemic levels later in 2021, which is 6-12 months faster than the central bank had expected. In addition to stronger domestic demand, Australia stands to benefit from a more robust global economy, which will translate into stronger demand for Australian exports. This bodes well for the Australian dollar, which has a tight correlation with commodity prices. Despite the rosy economic picture, the RBA remains cautious and has not given any indication that it plans to raise interest rates or even taper its QE programme. At its last meeting, the bank noted that inflation remains low and below the central bank's target, which is between 2-3 per cent. The bank added that although the employment picture has improved, unemployment still remains too high for its liking. AUD/USD is putting strong resistance at 0.7813. Above, there is resistance at 0.7887. On the downside, there is support at 0.7688, followed by support at 0.7627
by OANDA
AUDUSD needs validation of Thursday’s bullish DojiWhile justifying Thursday’s bullish Doji candlestick, AUDUSD not only bounces off the yearly bottom but tries to regain above 100-day SMA and a three-week-old horizontal resistance. However, daily closing above 0.7620 becomes necessary for the AUDUSD buyers to eye the 0.7700 threshold. It should, however, be noted that the 50-day SMA level of 0.7730 and January tops close to 0.7720 are extra upside filters that stand ready to test the bulls ahead of directing them to the multi-month top marked February around 0.8000. Meanwhile, a daily closing below 0.7560 should recall the AUDUSD bears targeting December 21, 2020 low near 0.7460. However, the 0.7500 round-figure can offer an intermediate halt during the fall. Also, tops marked during early December 2020, near 0.7450 offer extra supports to test the sellers.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSDAs I said last week ....AU started the descent as we anticipated last week when it hit the trend channel line! ....AU it dropped 300 pips from the 700 forecast last week and now will have a range period in this area of ​​100-150 pips after which it will continue the descent towards 0.74500 and then towards 0.70000 THIS WEEK...I will bet on the same analysis from last week and I think it will test once again the trend line and the edge of the Ichimoku cloud and from there ... DOWN AGAIN for at least 300-500 pips NOTE: Starting this week I will try to highlight in parallel the chart for 1 week and the one for 1 month for a better accuracy of the analyzes - This pair may be influenced in the short term by any news GREAT ATTENTION: Our analyzes have an accuracy of over 91% but due to market manipulations during this period we will avoid putting exact values on SL! We also recommend avoiding short-term trades during this period because news can appear at any time that can destabilize the market. *This information is not a Financial Advice.
by BloomFX_SIGNALS
AUDUSD remains vulnerable despite corrective pullback above 0.76AUDUSD wavers around 11-week-old support during early Tuesday, recently bouncing off the monthly low. However, the pair’s sustained trading below an ascending trend line from November 02 and 50-day SMA keeps sellers hopeful. While fresh selling should begin following a daily closing below the immediate support line, at 0.7650 now, the yearly bottom around 0.7560 and the 100-day SMA level near 0.7530 will test the bears afterward. Meanwhile, an upside break of 50-day SMA and the support-turned-resistance line, respectively around 0.7735 and 0.7775, will have to refresh the monthly top near 0.7840 to recall the AUDUSD bulls. Following that, the 0.7900 round-figure may offer an intermediate halt during the rally targeting to refresh February’s peak close to the 0.8000 psychological magnet.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
💡 Don't miss the great sell opportunity in AUDUSDTrading suggestion: . There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested resistance line (0.7785). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets. Technical analysis: . AUDUSD is in a range bound and the beginning of downtrend is expected. .The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 50. Take Profits: TP1= @ 0.7745 TP2= @ 0.7725 TP3= @ 0.7695 TP4= @ 0.7650 TP5= @ 0.7580 SL: Break Above R2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment let us know how do you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Short
by ForecastCity_ME
4
AUDUSD looks promising for 100-pip upsideDespite recently easing from the yearly high, AUDUSD stays well beyond the 50-day SMA, not to forget being inside the ascending triangle, amid the absence of overbought RSI conditions. As a result, the buyers are hopeful of crossing January’s peak near 0.7820, which in turn enables the optimists to eye 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) level around 0.7910 during the further upside. It should, however, be noted that the quote’s upside momentum past-0.7910 will not hesitate to challenge the 0.8000 threshold. On the downside, pullback moves may eye the 0.7700 round-figure but even the short-term bears may remain cautious until witnessing a clear downside break of 50-day SMA, currently around 0.7660. Also acting as the key support is a convergence of the ascending trend line from November 13, forming part of the stated triangle, as well as 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of November-January upside, around 0.7630-25. Overall, AUDUSD benefits from the market optimism backed by the vaccine optimism and hopes of US stimulus, which in turn highlights it for the bulls.
Long
by MTradingGlobal