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Australia

AUDUSD rebound remains unreal below 0.6780Despite falling heavily after the US inflation, the AUDUSD bounced off a two-month-old support line as nearly oversold RSI pushed back the bears. The recovery, however, remains below a two-week-old horizontal hurdle surrounding 0.6770-80, which in turn joins bearish MACD signals to challenge the optimists. If the Aussie pair crosses the 0.6780 hurdle, it can quickly run up towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of July-August upside, around 0.6855. Following that, a convergence of the 200-SMA and a downward sloping resistance line from mid-August, close to 0.6910, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls. Meanwhile, a clear downside below the aforementioned two-month-long support line, at 0.6700 by the press time, won’t hesitate to challenge the yearly low marked in July at around 0.6680. During the AUDUSD pair’s weakness past 0.6680, the RSI might have turned oversold and could challenge the bears. Also acting as a downside filter is the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the August 11 to September 13 moves, close to 0.6645. In a case where the quote drops below 0.6645, the odds of witnessing the 0.6600 threshold on the chart can’t be ruled out. Overall, AUDUSD is likely to remain on the bear’s radar but the downside room is limited, which suggests further grinding of the pair ahead of next week’s FOMC.
by MTradingGlobal
1
AUDUSD stays inside short-term bearish channel at yearly lowAUDUSD justifies its risk-barometer status aptly as it remains near the two-year bottom, inside a 12-day-long bearish channel. The quote’s further downside, however, appears limited in the short-term due to the nearness to the stated channel’s lower line, close to 0.6690 at the latest. That said, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of June 16 to July 05 moves, near 0.6705, could offer immediate support to the Aussie pair. In a case where the bears refrain from stepping back from 0.6690, the 78.6% FE level near 0.6650 could gain major attention. Alternatively, the 50-SMA level surrounding 0.6800 guards the immediate recovery moves ahead of the immediate descending channel’s upper line, around 0.6840 by the press time. It’s worth noting that a clear upside break of the 0.6840 hurdle isn’t a call to the AUDUSD bulls as the 100-SMA level of 0.6855 could challenge the advances afterward. Should the quote rises past 0.6855, the odds of its run-up towards the late June swing high near 0.6965 and then to the 0.7000 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out. Overall AUDUSD remains in a bearish trajectory, despite the recently firmer Aussie jobs report and increasing calls about the RBA’s aggression. However, the downside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls run out of steam after Aussie GDPAUDUSD struggles to remain beyond a three-week-old support line, having reversed from a multi-day high the previous day, even as Australia’s Q1 2022 GDP rises past the market’s downbeat forecasts with 0.8% QoQ figures. That said, the Aussie pair bears need validation from the immediate support line, near 0.7145, to challenge the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of April-May fall, around 0.7025. The quote’s downside past 0.7025, however, could struggle as the broad 0.6965-50 support area appears a tough nut to crack for the pair sellers, a break of which won’t hesitate to refresh the yearly low, marked in May around 0.6830. Meanwhile, recovery moves need validation from the 100-DMA level surrounding 0.7230, as well as May’s peak near 0.7265. Following that, a run-up towards 61.8% Fibo level close to 0.7345 becomes imminent. However, tops marked in March and late April, respectively around 0.7440 and 0.7455, will challenge the AUDUSD bulls before directing them to April’s high, also the yearly peak, near 0.7660. Overall, AUDUSD recently flashed the much-awaited pullback signals and hence further downside is brewing. However, the US NFP is left to propel prices, which in turn requires the trader’s discretion.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
CTS - #ADAUSD This analysis is designed to provide information that CTS believes to be accurate on the subject matter, but is shared with the understanding that the author is NOT offering individualized advice tailored to any specific portfolio or the particular needs of any individual. The author of the analysis specifically disclaims any responsibility for any personal or other loss or risk incurred as a consequence, directly or indirectly, of the use and application of any of the contents of this analysis.
ALong
by CaliforniaTS