13 Feb ’24 BankNifty is still bearish even after a 927pts rallyBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️
BankNifty had a lot of anomalies today. Firstly, the start was slightly on the higher side and BN did not fall, unlike Nifty. We ended up defending yesterday’s swing low which came as a big surprise. You might remember, we had a bearish call for BN today and the fact that the downside move was not even attempted came as a shocker.
4mts chart
Secondly, BN ended up rallying 927pts ~ 2.07% intraday and was still unable to break the 45399 resistance. If you ask us, it did break the resistance on the 4mts & 16mts chart. But on the 63mts chart, it is still unbroken. ICICI Bank & AXIS Bank were in tremendous form today rallying 2.38% and 2.3% respectively. The bulk of the gains today came from these 2 counters. HDFC Bank showed some intent to break through the 1400 level but was cut short.
63mts chart
We are drawing a new trend line (purple color) - A bearish line. The difference here is that it is cutting through the candles on many occasions. Since it is not the perfect way to draw the line, we may even take it off shortly. The only reason we drew it was to plot the course BN is currently sailing. Tomorrow being an expiry day, we hope the bearish momentum will pick up the pace and the levels of 44542 and 44068 will get broken. The new purple line will serve as a dynamic resistance tomorrow.
Algo Trading
Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a loss of 560 points.
AXISBANK
25 Jan ’24 — BankNifty looks, walks & talks like a BEAR, is it?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️
The unusualness of the last 30mts was more obvious in the Banks - HDFC, ICICI, AXIS and Kotak. Seems a news/event is brewing and we may get some clarity in the coming days. The good thing is that it broke out pretty late in the day, which meant the expiry was not totally screwed.
4mts chart
How many Analysts you know are bearish on the banks, most of them we follow are Permabulls. Seems like the criticism we are getting is obvious in the price action today. Except for the last 30mts - every other minute belonged to the bears today. When news/event breaks out - the best thing a technical analyst could do is close the position and wrap the day.
63mts chart
BN got support from our marked SR level of 44542. The next level below is 44068 which is the strongest SR level in the proximity. The history of 44068 levels goes back to Dec 2022 (quite a long way back). Our stance of bearishness continues and hope Monday belongs to the bears.
AXISBANK Break trendline and bullishIn 1 day time frame trendline breakout was done and not at 1136.95 with a good volume.
For now volume support zone 1119.15.
If price break 1151 with good volume then a big move we can see here. Be alert.
support zone 1119.15-1109
Support 2: 1081
if price consolidate between 1109-1136 it's for intraday .
after break 1151 it's a good for long for investor.
03 Jan ’24 — BankNifty holds the line today, Bears still around.BankNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis
BN just fell 742pts ~ 1.53% between the last expiry and today, logically it got only 4 working days as the last expiry was on a Thursday. A 742pts move is nothing considering the shape BN is currently in. Since the stance is now bearish, we are hoping for a build-up in the momentum soon.
63mts chart link
BankNifty Today Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️
So both BN and N50 have the same stance of “bearish” now. Usually, when the directional bias is the same for both these indices, we expect the markets to cover some ground quickly.
4mts chart link
Except for the opening candle, BN had a pretty boring day otherwise. BN was keeping the losses under control on Nifty. And the banks ICICIBANK, AXISBANK & KOTAKBANK were trending in the opposite direction of HDFCBANK. Yesterday it was the real opposite - HDFC was staying cool while the others were dropping.
The expiry was meaningful today with frequent surges of volatility swinging the strike premiums. Even though BN managed to tread above water for some time, there were no visible signs of a bullish recovery.
16mts chart link
We are quite safely away from the channel now. To renter it, BN will have to rise to 48600+ tomorrow. If it doesn't, then it's in the bear’s control. We continue to look for shorting opportunities with the first target as 47006.
AXIS BANK Analysis for Short termIntraday view stock is in down trend. It's follow a trendline . When price will be near at or touch trendline we can shorts our position. For long term investor buy on dip . It's a best options for them .
Support: 1092
Resistance: 1104
Maximum volume at 1100 (So we can think if price will be near this level and create a bearish candle we can make a position on shorts)
As expected if continue the downtrend price will be come at 1090. if near 1090 any bullish candle will be create at 15 or 30 or 45 min then buy .
Level 1090 was the Fibonacci retracement zone.
Bullish position will be create when price will be trade upper 1104.
26th Dec ’23 - BankNifty stance changed to neutral, IV going upBankNifty Analysis
Was quite surprised to see BankNifty following the ascending channel’s bottom trendline with a near correlation. Only for a brief period, we traded in RED, once BN pulled itself above water - it was able to hold its level quite strongly.
4mts chart link - click here
KOTAKBANK, AXISBANK, and HDFCBANK were trading in green giving BN a much-needed green cushion. Even then there was no strong bullish momentum today - it was just that the bears did not have any control today.
63mts chart link - click here
On the higher timeframe, BN is still inside the ascending channel. The bears are unable to exert any pressure post 20th December. Since BN is not ceding ground, I have to change my status from bearish to neutral for tomorrow. This week BankNifty and Nifty are expiring together on Thursday, which means we have no instruments expiring tomorrow 27th Dec.
India VIX rose 7.08% today almost touching the 15 levels. Looks like VIX is creating an interim bottom. My EMA’s will show a golden crossover in 2 days if we continue the rising trend. After the news broke out about the drone attack on 2 vessels carrying Indian nationals - I seriously thought we would have a negative reaction today. Seems like the markets were not at all bothered. My next question is, will the market react to this news tomorrow? - “blast outside the Israel embassy in Delhi”
VIX 1D chart - click here
#Largecaps #HRITIK stocks Over last few weeks, there had been too many posts on SM which were shared about some of the large cap names which have provided zero return over last "x" many months.
That intrigued me to understand the concept of timewise correction.
The composite chart of major large cap of Nifty or as they say HRITIK (+few others) stocks suggest that they have gone through similar timewise correction cycle of of almost 26 weeks where they had provided zero return in back in 2015 to 2017 and from there on the did rallied significantly about 40-50% before showing any sign of major price correction.
The current pattern from 2021 to 2023 is also very similar to what happened back then, and the current weekly closing suggest a big breakout on weekly charts, Will these stock show similar move as they did back in past is only time can tell us but as they say history always repeats itself and also as someone said " Elephants, large caps, take their own time.
And, when they move, only astonishment is left .", So may be time is right for them to start leading the Indian Market
The composite chart contain below stocks in it.
HDFCBANK
RELIANCE
ICICIBANK
TCS
INFY
KOTAKBANK
ITC
AXISBANK
SBIN
Analyzing Axis Bank: an opportunity to go LongAxis Bank appears to present a favorable opportunity for a long position. I've outlined the entry price, stop loss, and target levels for this stock within the chart.
Please keep in mind that these are my personal opinions, and I don't recommend you follow them as stock tips. I encourage you to study the chart and share your feedback so that we can collectively enhance our understanding as a community.
Axis Bank : Cup&HandleTrading Strategy : Stock has given a breakout of the formation of cup and handle . One should buy the stock near the current level i.e. 980 and keeping a stop loss of 927 , look for the target of 1100-1120 in the coming weeks.
Buy: CMP i.e. 980
Stop loss : 927
Tgt: 1100
Theory:
The Cup with Handle is a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation period followed by a breakout. It was developed by William O'Neil and introduced in his 1988 book, How to Make Money in Stocks.
As its name implies, there are two parts to the pattern: the cup and the handle. The cup forms after an advance and looks like a bowl or rounding bottom. As the cup is completed, a trading range develops on the right-hand side and the handle is formed. A subsequent breakout from the handle's trading range signals a continuation of the prior advance.
Trend: To qualify as a continuation pattern, a prior trend should exist. Ideally, the trend should be a few months old and not too mature. The more mature the trend, the less chance that the pattern marks a continuation or the less upside potential.
Cup: The cup should be “U” shaped and resemble a bowl or rounding bottom. A “V” shaped bottom would be considered too sharp of a reversal to qualify. The softer “U” shape ensures that the cup is a consolidation pattern with valid support at the bottom of the “U”. The perfect pattern would have equal highs on both sides of the cup, but this is not always the case.
Cup Depth: Ideally, the depth of the cup should retrace 1/3 or less of the previous advance. However, with volatile markets and over-reactions, the retracement could range from 1/3 to 1/2. In extreme situations, the maximum retracement could be 2/3, which conforms with Dow Theory.
Handle: After the high forms on the right side of the cup, there is a pullback that forms the handle. Sometimes this handle resembles a flag or pennant that slopes downward, other times it is just a short pullback. The handle represents the final consolidation/pullback before the big breakout and can retrace up to 1/3 of the cup's advance, but usually not more. The smaller the retracement, the more bullish the formation and significant the breakout. Sometimes it is prudent to wait for a break above the resistance line established by the highs of the cup.
Volume: There should be a substantial increase in volume on the breakout above the handle's resistance.
Target: The projected advance after breakout can be estimated by measuring the distance from the right peak of the cup to the bottom of the cup.
AXISBanks Axisbank as per my previous analysis has mentioned that longs need to be cautious (link in related idea section), and it did gave a excellent short trade from there on. Now the recent price action is suggesting that price may start its another leg of upmove and further aggressive short here can be risky.
Rest of the details are marked in chart