BankNifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 19.08.2024On Friday, BankNifty opened with a gap up and sustained its bullish momentum throughout the day, closing at 50516.90 with a gain of 789 points. The nearest resistance is at 50750; a breakout with volume above this level could potentially lead to a rally towards the 125m Supply zone at 51310, which also aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The weekly trend (50 SMA) remains positive, while the daily trend (50 SMA) is negative.
Support Levels:
Near Demand/Support Zone (30m): 49806 - 50017
Far Support Level: 49660 (Double bottom on Daily Chart)
Far Support Level: 48858 (61.8% FIBO Retracement level of the rally from 46078)
Resistance Levels:
Near Resistance Level: 50750
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (125m) for Weekly Trade: 51309 - 51609
BANKNIFTY
Banknifty directions and levels for August 4th week.Banknifty - Current View:
If the market starts with a bullish bias in the upcoming session, then it may face rejection around the 50,969 to 51,151 level. If that happens, it may retrace a minimum of 23% to 38%. After that, if it finds support around the 38% level, the bullish sentiment will continue, and we can expect a rally once it breaks the previous high again. On the other hand, if it breaks below the 38% Fibonacci level, it may enter a correction phase. The correctional targets are expected to be a minimum of 61% to 78%.
"This sentiment will apply to the scenario where the upcoming session does not break the previous high or where there is an immediate decline. You can use this sentiment in such cases. This is our first variation."
Alternate View:
The alternate view suggests that if the initial pullback sustains or breaks the 51,151 level, then the rally will continue with some minor consolidation. In this case, the targets are expected to be a minimum of 61% to 51,563. If the rally faces rejection around the 51,563 level, we can expect a minor correction of 23% to 38%. This correction is minor
16 Aug 2024 - BankNifty stance is neutral, magical recovery.BankNifty Stance Neutral ➡️
BankNifty gets an upgrade, but not to bullish but to neutral from bearish. We have managed to go up by 27pts ~ 0.05% in the current week, but this after a dramatic fall and then a recovery. 82% of this recovery coming on Friday the 16th, i.e. 698pts out of 851.
BankNifty went down to 49654 a level that we last saw on 6th Aug, and then magically rebounded. I know the frustration of the bears to drive down the prices because I am one of them.
I am a bear not because I do not negate the belief in India's growth story, but because of 2 important facts.
The primary reason for the huge influx of money to stock markets was that the average business owners felt the capital markets were giving better returns than their own enterprises.
People look at the order book and hope that there is someone else ready to buy the stock at a higher price and hence they are saved.
LIC To Invest Around Rs 1.3 Lakh Crore In Stock Market In Fiscal 2025
The news that LIC is ready to invest 130,000,000,000 in stock markets will definitely give courage to the average retail investor. All of them believe if they buy the shares of a company XYZ for Rs2000, the influx of more money will be forced to buy XYZ for a higher price and hence they are safe. For me that is froth.
The only reason the markets are going up even when the FIIs are not on a buying spree is due to the accidental courage the retail investors have got as they think the domestic institution is there to catch them.
Federal Bank vs Karur Vysya Bank: Which is the bettr investment?The Bank Nifty NSE:BANKNIFTY stands at the 50,500 level, reflecting a decline of approximately 5.3% from its all-time high. When evaluating private banks, HDFC NSE:HDFCBANK , Axis NSE:AXISBANK , ICICI NSE:ICICIBANK , and Kotak Mahindra NSE:KOTAKBANK typically emerge as top contenders for investment. However, in the mid to small-cap arena, Federal Bank and Karur Vysya Bank have shown remarkable resilience and performance over the past few months, outpacing the broader banking sector. Let’s delve into some crucial factors that can guide us in determining the most promising investment opportunity at this moment!
Market Capitalization
● Federal Bank NSE:FEDERALBNK - ₹ 49,883 Cr.
● Karur Vysya Bank NSE:KARURVYSYA - ₹ 17,459 Cr.
Relative Strength
● The chart clearly illustrates that the Bank Nifty has delivered an impressive return on investment of approximately 15% over the past year. However, Federal Bank and Karur Vysya Bank have far surpassed this figure, achieving remarkable returns of around 54% and 82%, respectively. This indicates that these two banks are currently excelling far beyond the overall bank index.
Cost of Liabilities
● The liabilities cost for Karur Vysya Bank is at 4.8%, notably lower than Federal Bank's 5.14%. This indicates that Karur Vysya Bank has a greater ability to secure funds compared to Federal Bank.
CASA Ratio
● The CASA ratio, which measures the proportion of deposits in current and savings accounts to total deposits, is a crucial indicator for banks. A higher CASA ratio signifies a reduced cost of funds, as banks typically do not pay interest on current account deposits, and the interest rates on savings accounts are generally quite low, around 3-4%.
● In this instance, the CASA ratios stand at 30.39% for Karur Vysya Bank and 29.56% for Federal Bank, highlighting Karur Vysya Bank's superior position over Federal Bank.
Non-performing Asset (NPA) Analysis
● Over the past four years, the net non-performing assets (NPA) for these two banks have seen a remarkable decline.
● In the latest quarter, Karur Vysya Bank reports a net NPA of just 0.4, while Federal Bank follows closely with a net NPA of 0.6.
Total Provisions
● Discussing the NPA without considering the overall provisions presents an incomplete picture. Both banks have experienced a notable decline in this crucial factor.
● For Federal Bank, the total provisioning for FY24 is only 196 crore, a stark reduction from 750 crore in FY23. Similarly, Karur Vysya Bank's total provisioning for FY24 stands at 728 crore, down from 1,039 crore in FY23.
Net Interest Margins (NIM)
● Karur Vysya Bank boasts a superior net interest margin (NIM) of 3.75, significantly outpacing the Federal Bank's NIM of 2.87.
● A NIM below 3 is generally viewed as unfavorable for banks. highlighting the strength of Karur Vysya Bank in this key metric.
Advances Growth (%) Analysis
● An increase in advances growth signifies a bank's ability to efficiently provide loans. The 20.4% rise in advances for Federal Bank surpasses the 16.68% growth seen at Karur Vysya Bank, showcasing a more robust lending capability.
Valuation
● PE Ratio
➖Federal Bank's current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 12.4, which exceeds its 1-year median PE of 9.0. Compared to the industry average PE of 11.83, this suggests that the stock is not excessively overvalued.
➖On the other hand, Karur Vysya Bank has a current PE of 10.2, which is marginally above its 1-year median PE of 9.8. Given the industry PE of 11.83, this indicates that Karur Vysya Bank is significantly undervalued.
➖When analyzing the PE ratios, it becomes clear that Karur Vysya Bank holds a more advantageous position.
● Intrinsic Value
➖The Federal Bank is currently trading at ₹204, while its intrinsic value stands at ₹228, indicating that the stock is undeniably undervalued at this time.
➖On the other hand, Karur Vysya Bank's market price is ₹217, but with an intrinsic value of only ₹146, it clearly shows that the stock is currently overvalued.
Technical Aspects
● From a technical standpoint, both stocks exhibit a similar pattern and appear to be currently overextended. Any pullbacks could provide a valuable opportunity to take positions.
Conclusion
● Upon evaluating all the key factors, it is evident that Karur Vysya Bank NSE:KARURVYSYA is in a more advantageous position than Federal Bank NSE:FEDERALBNK ; however, this does not imply that Federal Bank is struggling. Both banks offer promising investment prospects. As the economy grows, a fundamentally strong bank is expected to consistently surpass the overall banking sector.
BANKNIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 19 Aug 2024BANKNIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 19 Aug 2024
Bullish-Above 50610
Invalid-Below 50500
T- 51175
Bearish-Below 50100
Invalid-Above 50210
T- 49650
BANKNIFTY has closed on a flat note last week. However it has formed double Pinbar candle in weekly TF indicating a potential bullish reversal above 50850. Index has been trading between 51800 and 49700 in daily since last 8 sessions. Breakout in the upside will be followed by 50 EMA breakout in daily TF. 50610 and 50110 will be intraday levels for tomorrow. Sell on rise approach to be halt till we get fakeout scenario now.
Coming to Monday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 50610 then we will long for the target of 51175.
For selling we need a 15 Min candle close below 50100. T- 49650.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range (5MIN). Trade on this range breakout.
==========
I am Not SEBI Registered
This is my personal analysis for my personal trading. Kindly consult your financial advisor before taking any actions based on this.
Trading Management and Psychology #NSE #SMCTrading psychology is different for each trader, and it is influenced by the trader's emotions and biases. The two main emotions that are likely to impact the success or failure of a trade are greed or fear. Greed is defined as the excessive desire for profits that could affect the rationality and judgment of a trader.
Trading psychology is the emotional component of an investor's decision-making process, which may help explain why some decisions appear more rational than others. Trading psychology is characterized primarily by the influence of both greed and fear. Greed drives decisions that might be too risky.
Here are five ways to feel more in control of your emotions while trading.
Create Personal Rules. Setting your own rules to follow when you trade can help you control your emotions. ...
Trade the Right Market Conditions. ...
Lower Your Trade Size. ...
Establish a Trading Plan and Trading Journal. ...
Relax!
#Banknifty direction's and levels for August 16th. Bank Nifty has a range-bound market structure. There are two possible scenarios:*
1. *If the market finds support around at the 78% Fibonacci level, we can expect a bounce back that may once again reach today's high.*
2. *If the market consolidates around those support levels, (the 78% Fibonacci level), then the correction may continue further.*
*In my personal opinion, if you're a conservative trader, it's advisable to go with the latter scenario(2nd one), as there is a 60% probability of success.*
BankNifty - Inventory Analysis with Market Profile - 16 Aug 2024Hi hope you all are doing good, and in today's video i want to share where the positions are being accumulated in BankNifty and why i am long biased.
Area where price stability is seen = 49969
Stops seen = 49817
Area where sellers are competing = 51000
Area where buying interest or supply will shut off = 47500
Disclaimer: Please always do your own analysis or consult with your financial advisor before taking any kind of trades.
Dear traders, do not forget to hit like and follow me, and please do share your thoughts in below comment box, as your response will help me strengthen my market understanding.
Thank you.
BankNifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 16.08.2024Support Levels:
Major Demand/Support Zone (Weekly): 49530 - 50253 (currently inside the zone)
Far Support: 48858 level (61.8% FIBO Retracement level)
Resistance Levels:
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (30m): 50200 - 50343
Far Resistance Level: 51750
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (125m) for Weekly Trade: 51309 - 51609
BANKNIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 16 Aug 2024BANKNIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 16 Aug 2024
Bullish-Above 49960
Invalid-Below 49850
T- 50415
Bearish-Below 49650
Invalid-Above 49760
T- 48900
BANKNIFTY has closed on a slight bearish note with 0.21% cut today. On Wednesday it was total sideways. Daily candle is more or less a spinning top, now weather it can spin the ongoing trend on the last day of the week is to be watched. If 50k is reclaimed then there is fair chance of a pullback/ up move. Below 49650 index will breakout hourly range and a big length fall will be on card.
Coming to Friday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 49960 then we will long for the target of 50415.
For selling we need a 15 Min candle close below 49650. T- 48900.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range (5MIN). Trade on this range breakout.
==========
I am Not SEBI Registered
This is my personal analysis for my personal trading. Kindly consult your financial advisor before taking any actions based on this.
Advanced Data Base Option's Trading #NSE #BSEInstitutional options trading refers to the buying and selling of options contracts by large entities such as banks, pension funds, hedge funds, mutual funds, and other institutional investors. These institutions accumulate funds from various investors to trade on their behalf.
Options are financial derivatives that give the holder the right (but not the obligation) to buy (call option) or sell (put option) an underlying asset (such as stocks, commodities, or currencies) at a predetermined price (strike price) within a specified time frame (expiration date).
Here are some key points about institutional options trading:
1.Institutional Traders vs. Retail Traders:
*Institutional Traders: These traders manage accounts for institutions or groups. They trade larger volumes and have access to more exotic products, including complex options.
*Retail Traders: These traders operate personal accounts and typically trade smaller sizes of assets.
2.Advantages of Institutional Trading:
*Access to a wide range of financial instruments, including exotic options.
*Ability to execute large trades efficiently due to their substantial funds.
*Influence on market prices due to their significant trading volumes.
3.Service Providers Used by Institutional Trading Firms:
* Bloomberg
* Thomson Reuters
* Factset
* Marketwatch
4.Educational Requirements and Job Opportunities:
*Becoming an institutional trader often requires a strong educational background in finance, economics, or related fields.
*Job opportunities include roles in trading, risk management, and portfolio management.
5.Earnings:
*Institutional traders can earn substantial salaries, but compensation varies based on experience, performance, and the institution.
Remember that institutional trading strategies involve careful analysis, calculated moves, and a long-term perspective, as these traders significantly impact market dynamics.
BANKNIFTY, SIDEWAYS BEARISHBased on trendline levels which have been respected in the past and long term support & resistance levels, it seems BankNifty is likely to remain sideways to bearish in short-term perspective with probable correction upto 49800 to 48000 range.
(Note : Pls discard 'Long' & 'Short' indicator on the chart)
Bank Nifty Reversal Trade-Setup with Great RRBank Nifty is trading at big demand zone and and we see significant potential for an upside move for several reasons:
Reasons for Going Long in Bank Nifty:
1. Ichimoku Daily Cloud Bottom
2. Ichimoku Weekly KS Support
3. Bullish MACD Divergence on the 1-hour time frame
4. Completing Triple Correction—WXYXZ (considering a truncated scenario; otherwise, BN might aim for the 127% and 161.8% levels mentioned in the earlier post)
CMP: 49,718
Expected Targets: 51,300, 51,700
Stop Loss: 49,590
Disclaimer : We are not SEBI registered. The content presented here is based on personal opinions. Conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Bank Nifty Next Move and Possible Reversal Zones. Bank Nifty is in a nice downtrend, and we feel it's forming a "WXYXZ" wave pattern.
Ichimoku Signals: One hour Cloud SSB rejected the price and currently trading below TS KS, indicating the bearish trend will continue and go down for wave Z, and expected destinations are:
127.2% == 49342
161.8% == 48935
Stop Loss = One hour candle above TS KS (50573) should be fine.
Disclaimer: We are not SEBI registered. The content presented here is based on personal opinions. Conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
BankNifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 14.08.2024On Monday, BankNifty opened with a gap down, breached the 30m Demand zone, and closed at 49831.85, losing 746 points. After yesterday's decline, the weekly trend (50 SMA) remains positive, but the daily trend (50 SMA) has turned negative.
Support Levels:
Major Demand/Support Zone (Weekly): 49530 - 50253 (currently inside the zone)
Far Support: 48858 level (61.8% FIBO Retracement level)
Resistance Levels:
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 50222 - 50268
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 51325 - 51400 (inside the 125m Supply Zone)
Far Resistance Level: 51750
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (125m) for Weekly Trade: 51309 - 51609
#Banknifty directions and levels for August 14th.1st Scenario:
>Even if the market opens with a gap-up, structurally it may not sustain. If this happens, we can expect the correction to continue towards the levels of 49,697 to the demand zone when it breaks the previous day’s low.
>After that correction, if the market finds support around the major support levels, we might see a 23% to 38% bounce back. However, this bounce is not guaranteed; if it doesn’t occur, the correction may continue with minor consolidations.
2nd Scenario:
If the gap-up sustains structurally, we can expect an initial bounce back of 23% to 38%. Usually, sharp movements bounce back within this range. If the price gets rejected at this level, the major trend will likely continue. However, if it breaks the 38% Fibonacci level solidly, the current movement may shift to a range-bound market. But the probability of this is less likely.
Banknifty prediction for tomorrow 14 AugAs Banknifty is showing a huge sell-off today, the market is in bearish sentiments, followed by the Heisenberg report on the SEBI chairperson.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading at the 4H-TF support trendline zone(Marked in Green) and 200 EMA (4H-TF). price is trading below the ema(13, 50, 200) shows market is in bearish phase. The market might take support here, or if it breaks down to the downside, it's going to take support at 49000 next, as can also be confirmed with OI data.
Support levels : 49683, 200 EMA (4H-TF)
Resistance levels : 50 EMA, 200 EMA
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.55 shows bearish market behavior. There has been a huge PE sell-off today, which shows bulls are not trusting the market anymore and come out. There is too much CE writing at higher levels than PE writing at lower levels, which shows a high chance of a bearish market in the upcoming session.
I am expecting the market to follow 3 cases which are marked on the chart.
Case 1 : if it opens the gap down, it might touch the trendline and take support 49000.
Case 2 : if the market opens a gap-up, it will take resistance at 50 EMA, and then it might continue the bearish momentum.
Case 3: If it opens sideways, wait for the price action at the green trendline zone.
Reason:
RSI < 40, showing the market is going to be in a bearish structure.
Price trading at 200 EMA (4H-TF), which might provide good support.
PCR = 0.55 shows that the market is huge Bearish.
Price < VWAP shows a Bearish market structure.
Verdict : Bearish or sideways
Plan of action:
See the price action at the green trendline zone. There have been marked three cases.