banknifty As 2 days goes by but primium does't risk
as market trapped many sellers as to gave a brackout 2 days earlyer
from past 2 days consolidation we can see people are looseing nmoney consistenly
But as they will close there trade if market opens high tommorow
so as only buyer wiil stay or buy at that zone Market will come down to hunt there sl
but in another senario if market starts flat then look for buy cauz markets moving slowly in upward direction and closing of both buyer and sellers
when there are less participents markets then to go up
not probeble senario market starts down or comes down after opening flat then look for a buy opertunity cauz there are already sell and then buyers who brought on friday should be stoped out and there money will creat a sell order and trapping sells again so market will rayly upside
Conclusion
1 avoid if flat , wait if comes down after opning flat
2 sell only if market opens gap up , avoid if goes up after an hour
3 buy if comes down after opning flat, buy if opens below and give a selling setup/ avoid if opens below and gives a buying setup cauz market can creat a buying setup to come down as there are one gap at 44000 to 44150
Bankniftylong
Banknifty BuyMonday's market is unpredictible.
cauz, market did take up selller lequidity & buy got stoped out ( profit bookig and traling SL)
there are only sellers left in the market but not freash selling position
so, market does't have any money to go ethir way
so, market will trap every retailer both who will look for selling and buying
best possible situation now is market will open gap up and then trap buyer then comes down to take sellers money then give a big cendel upside to take out everybody
less possible situation market will open low and take out all the buyer then the as sellers come it will take there Sl and continue downward trand
but if market opens nutrul then totally avoid trading cauze last 3 days ends in consolidation
so market has high theta and low IV. could trade if market crosses my levels in high lequidity
As, For MY VIEW Looking to buy in first 2 to 3hours then watch Price Action
banknifty buyAs market did't showed any bearish pressure and a slow down movement & market did't trapped any buyers today after opening
So, as there are less sellers the market will grab sellers lquidity to go up
So, theres no lquidity for the market to go down
So 44000 area will act as a major support for buyers and also a trap zone for the buyers wait for price to close below 44000 area and then look for an opertunity to buy.
market will start down tomorrow to take the sellers lquidity and to stop out buyer
then market will continue a buying side rally. ( at least need 1 expairy )
but if sellers dose not come and market reverse itself before touching 44000 then a buyers liquidity take will start a bear rally.( at least need next week )
but as for tomorrow only looking for buy.
bankniftyas conslidation areas are uncertain 60% nutral 40% upside
todays market nutral as expected to gain theta of buyers
there are a few sellers in the market at the flip zone
if market starts up avoid it as it will creat lequidity for sellers to enter and trap them in the process.in a range bound market
if starts below then a sweep of major buyer zone will create tarp for sellers and gain lequidity to go upside
so a nutral markets where market traps everyone to go up sound probeble.
but a bull markets as the are no sellers and a trapped buyers and a exit from the buyers will creat lequidity for market to go up sound fair.
Banknifty buyThere are multipul seller zoner and seller sl area above there are none buyers sl area below. so,buying probebility becomes high and also 50 billion from J.P. Moegen.
There are multiple short cover moves upside so be cautious of selling because there are no sellers right now.
and market will trap sellers so it can gain lequidity to go up ad hit SHOORT COVER area
Falling channel in banknifty 1 hourHi All,
Banknifty is forming falling channel already broke and retested yesterday. 45092 will act as immediate resistance on upper side. If that breaks channel target 44550.
Please consider this is for educational purposes only and consult with your financial advisor before taking any trade.
BANKNIFTY : View for Monday Bank Nifty Levels are shared for Monday
Details analysis already shared in You Tube
Like, Share, Comment for regular updates.
Disclaimer
I am not sebi registered analyst
My studies are Educational purpose only
Please consult with your Financial advisor before trading or investing
I may be 100% wrong as its my pers
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 15 FEB 2023We had that resistance breakout today, a much awaited 41624 break. This makes the coming days exciting - most importantly tomorrow's expiry
NSE:BANKNIFTY opened inline at 41674 and made a series of red candles till 09.40, a fall of 0.52% and crucial 41624 SR rejection.
From there it made steady gains to take out the SR at 11.20 but only to fail in the next candle. A rise of 0.53% - which means a symmetrical recovery back to the opening levels.
From here NSE:BANKNIFTY made a gradual fall till 14.25 ~ 0.55% - this again took NSE:BANKNIFTY back to the LOD. So by now we have had 3 moves in the 0.52–0.55% range by 14.25
What happened after 14.30 was almost magical, i seriously did not think we will take out the 41624 resistance level today also as 5 prior attempts had already failed. But NSE:BANKNIFTY made some stellar vertical like moves aided by ICICI, SBI, Axis & HDFCbk.
Final close was well above the SR zone so we can almost confirm the range breakout. Also interestingly there were fresh short writings at PE mostly as positional trade for expiry tomorrow. The surge in volumes in the last 15mts is proof for this.
So i assume the sentiment has shifted from negative to neutral yesterday & then to positive by today. Do note that i still have the 41000/40900 debit ratio spread which is currently at loss.
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15mts TF is confirming the range break and the minor sentiment shift to the bullish side. We have one more resistance to overcome, thats where the brutal selling started.
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1hr TF, we can now stay away from bearish bets temporarily or atleast till the first support is not broken. Also note the 1hr is not showing bullishness yet - we need a break above the swing high for bullish momentum.
Here we have contradicting signals from the 15mts vs 1hr TF. 15mts saying no more bearishness & 1hr saying not bullish.
Ideally its not a bad idea to wait before taking aggressive trades !
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Among the bank nifty components
NSE:HDFCBANK was drifting into the red when the last 1 hr momentum reversed it.
NSE:ICICIBANK gains are quite obvious from the chart here, 3 consecutive green candles that powered up the NSE:BANKNIFTY today in last 1 hr
NSE:SBIN was able to get out of red with the last 1 hr momentum
NSE:AXISBANK also managed to reduce its losses in the same period.
NSE:KOTAKBANK was already surging ahead, the last 1hr gave it leg 2 of rally
NSE:INDUSINDBK did not participate in the broad based momentum that really helped the other 5 banks in last hour.
8 charts available in today's report at viswaram .com
Bank nifty Analysis for Monday 13th feb 2023As we can see currently bnf is trading in a range and follow a trend line (marked on the chart) the area presented in grey colour was acted as a crucial supply zone in the past, after the breakout of the trend line our entry will be activated above 41800 level and our target will be 42000 round figure.
My view is bullish on bank nifty
What is yours? Post your comments
Stay safe
Happy learning 👍🏻
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 23 JAN 2023Another boring price action today, the minimal variance in options premium after the morning jump shows the lack of volatility today.
NSE:BANKNIFTY Gap up opening at 42891 right at the resistance level of 42888, The first candle showed a brief rejection, but the 3rd and 4th candles were quite strong and surged ahead. BN hit HOD of 43005 at 09.50 and from there we had a gradual decline till close.
This support level gave away at 11.15, but the drop was not looking dangerous. Even the gap was not filled indicating the strength of bulls. One good thing that happened today was the break out from the previous resistance level of 42573.
When gap ups or gap downs are taking out the resistances or support - it means that the traders are not convinced during the market hours to rally or break the index. So overnight a change in macro or fundamentals has to work in favor/against.
Today's gap up was not rejected, which means traders are not going against the upmove. They are happy to keep the index close to the open price. And you might already know this - bank nifty likes to take out the support & resistance via gap openings.
The lack in options premium shows lower probability of wild swings with 2 days to go for expiry. However if there is a slight news or event all the option writers at this low premium will be hurt pretty badly and they would run to cover.
When premiums are lower, its good to buy options or debit spreads or debit ratio spreads with good risk:reward because if there is a move - premiums will jump exponentially.
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Among the bank nifty components:
NSE:HDFCBANK had a good opening start, 1.36% surge by 09.35 and then a gradual cooling off. From the results announcement, it is steadily gaining value everyday.
NSE:ICICIBANK had good QoQ results, the opening candle had a volume of 2.122M much similar to the volume of opening candle on 20th Jan. So a 1.2% gap up opening and then a fall to the flat line all in 10mts. Profit bookings were evident by the 13.05 candle. Final close flat.
NSE:SBIN had a gap up, fell to flat line and then rallied back in opening 10mts. 0.94% in opening candle itself. Final close of 1.39%.
NSE:AXISBANK had good swings today, 1.07% upmove by 09.35, then a fall of 1.60% from HOD to LOD by 11.45. And a recovery of 0.98% by 12.25. Final close flattish.
NSE:KOTAKBANK also had QoQ results impact. It was trending lower from 19th. Gap up opening of 1.62% today and a fall to 1770 level by 09.25. Gap was not closed which shows the new normal after the results. There was a rally attempt but it faded by 13.25. Final close 1.18% higher.
NSE:INDUSINDBK did not have volatility today, the trend was a gradual trace back to flatline after a 1% gap up.
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15mts and 1hr TF is confirming the break of 1st resistance, so the 15mts chart is looking a bit bullish today, 1hr may start showing bullishness if tomorrow we are trading above the resistance band of 42900 to 43000.
If the global markets are also surging in green today, there is every possibility that we participate in that too.
The news of FII selling is not creating any negative impact to indices as of now, because the domestic buying is so intense. I am still waiting to deploy cash because the current valuations are scaring me. I will wait till we drop below 29000 to renter or if we stay at the current prices till 2024.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 04 JAN 2023Probably you would feel it repetitive when i said the nifty and bank nifty made moves when the US markets were on holidays.
Look what happened today with bank nifty - we have negated the 2 day's of price action ie. 02 Jan and 03 Jan. Which means we have closed today at the same value as of 30th Dec
The child was having a nice time when the mom was on leave, now that she is back & has grounded him !
Lets now analyze the 5mts TF - BN opens at 43417 and makes a move up in the opening 10mts - HOD 43578 at 09.25. This would be the poor participants who would have taken a long position based on yesterday's price action.
And then the first leg of fall from 09.25 to 12.10 a fall of 670pts ~ 1.54%. The bank nifty's fall happened sooner than my marked SR level of 42888.
There was a brief pull back rally from 12.15 to 14.10 almost a 38.2% retracement Fibonacci - notice i have marked the FIB levels based on the HOD and the low formed at 12.10 because that's where it reversed.
The 2nd leg of rally had a higher intent but we ran out of time. Bulls need not be that much worried because the first level of support is still not breached.
What may have happened would be the after effect of the 2 day unchecked rally. Today's price move in US & tomorrow's expiry may set the tone for further action.
check the image above, 49000 CE was traded for 90.52 lakh qty, 46000 CE 1.48 crores, 45000 CE 3.15 Crores, 43000 CE 11.8 Crores. The option trading participation & volumes picked up when the market started moving.
Even there was a spike in the option premiums of PE at 12.07 - see 8 charts below - even the far OTM PEs prices almost went up 150%
This sets the stage for a wonderful expiry tomorrow. If US market falls today then we can expect further corrections here due to the domino effect created by the options positioning (mostly expiry related).
I am skipping the bank nifty component analysis as today's price action would be broad based!