Banknifty expiry tradesetup for 17-08-2023Banknifty important levels to watch are as follows
#Support: 43860
Sell below: 43860 only on 15 minute candle closure below the level.
Target 1: 43730
Target 2: 43600
Target 3: 43455
#Resistance: 43970
Buy Above: 43970 only on 15 minute candle closure Above the level.
Target 1: 44180
Target 2: 44410
#Demand Zone: 43700-44800 may act as a immediate buying zone, and price may bounce from the region marked in green on the chart.
#Supply Zone: 44160-44180 may act as an immediate selling zone, and price may reject from the region marked in red on the chart.
#Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
Follow us for more such information and educational ideas. Give it a like if you appreciate the idea. Queries will be answered in comment section.
Bankniftyoptions
16 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty, Bearish stance hanging on🧵From the moment we started today, Banknifty looked and stayed bearish for the entire day today. In the opening minutes we dropped 1.06% ~ 465pts and then there was a decent recovery of 403pts ~ 0.93 by 15.05
Last session we discussed the support/resistance zone of 44068. We have broken that today and the close ensured we have conclusively breached it. HDFCBK made a decent recovery today which was the primary reason banknifty cut its losses to just 0.3% ~ 144pts today. HDCBK was carrying on the bad news that its NII will be impacted after the merger.
Banknifty does not require a stance change and we continue to remain bearish. The first support level is 43404 and the first resistance is 44068 (marked on the chart yellow horizontal lines). From an options premium perspective, even after the strong moves today - the OTM premiums were not surging - suggesting no more wild swings for the day. I was really hoping to see some action today, but ended the day on a disappointing note.
BankNifty completes rising wedge pattern next week ?Hi All,
Hope all are doing great.
Here’s my 1D timeframe analysis. As we can see in the chart from 14-Dec-2022 to 6-Apr-2023 around 113 days there was a good falling channel pattern. It broke and achieved twice the target.
The next 113 days from the previous breakout is forming beautiful rising wedge pattern. As per the pattern nature it might break below to the given support level 43659.
Always trade carefully with proper SL because it’s your hard earned money.
Please note this is just my observation and purely for educational purposes only. Consult with your financial advisor before taking any trade.
Bank Nifty daily analysisSince last two weeks the bank nifty has been consolidated about 5%. with the immediate supports at 43850 and 43600 and resistance @ 44450 this week expiry will be deciding the banks movement on consolidation or breaking the trend. On any break of the immediate levels there could be huge upward or downward movement of 800 points.
14 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty - Tests SR @ 44068 🐻🐻🐻Banknifty also made a decent recovery after the 482pts ~ 1.09% fall in the opening 20mts. It retraced 433pts by 15.00. And then fell a little to close out with only 0.2% losses @ 44090.
Even though the recovery was good, it was not as dramatic as Nifty50. And we are back at an important support/resistance level of 44068. So bank nifty has retested its old SR level before Nifty which still means the downtrend could continue a bit more. Earlier on I did mention in the last report that BankNifty is the leading indicator for trend in India vs NASDAQ in US.
Today’s close on the 1hr TF will give some proof for that. The final close is quite far away(below) the trend line and my 50 & 200 EMA is widening. The stance continues to be bearish with 44068 as the first SR and 43404 as the next SR.
11 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty | Top bear in overdriveBanks were just continuing the trend from yesterday. The first candle saw a swing of 247pts ~ 0.56%. From there they were holding it steady till 12.40.
Something interesting happened at the 13.00 candle which was a strong green of 128pts. HDFCBK, ICICI, SBIN, AXIS all were shooting up. What happened right after that was a super spike in RELIANCE (up 1.38% between 13.00 to 14.35). I assume the operators had to sell the banks to offset the points getting added by reliance.
We fell another 341pts between the 13.05 to 15.05 period further cementing the bearish trend.
I have fixed the trend line as per the ORANGE line shared yesterday as I felt it resonates better with the current situation. We have 2 sets of double tops & 1 set each of head-shoulder & inverse head-shoulder now. I wish to maintain full bearish stance until proven wrong.
Falling channel in banknifty 1 hourHi All,
Banknifty is forming falling channel already broke and retested yesterday. 45092 will act as immediate resistance on upper side. If that breaks channel target 44550.
Please consider this is for educational purposes only and consult with your financial advisor before taking any trade.
08 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty | Stance is neutral !The major reason Nifty50 stayed strong without falling much is banknifty. It did show an attempt to break free from the bearish trend, the opening rush of 279pts till 10.40 is proof for that. From there was loss of steam and a pull back of 204pts. Once this inverted V shape was completed - there was lack of direction or momentum. Options data also indicated a non-directional trend post 11.30.
The change in stance from bearish to neutral worked well for banknifty today. We have marginally closed above the trendline. But for a bullish breakout we need to take back the 45400-45600 levels soon - I am not sure if there is enough momentum for that right now.
If the trades taken on Finnifty today were positional in nature due to expiry, we may have an unwinding tomorrow. This could also pull back banknifty back to the bearish zone - so currently the best idea would be to wait for tomorrow’s price action.
07 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty - bearish to neutral nowBanknifty had a perfect flat range bound day today. Normally we dont see it that often, but banknifty seems like a tamed beast as of now. You might be bored to hear this from me again that from “January 2023, I think banknifty is less volatile than Nifty50”. A look at the options data is ample proof - the OTM option values today is more like we usually see on a wednesday.
All non-directional traders who deployed straddle, strangles or iron condor/fly would have made some easy money as there was no breakout or breakdown.
Just like the stance changed on Nifty from neutral to bullish, I preferred to change the stance on banknifty to neutral from bearish. Here again it is much early as we had no decisive break of the recent H&S nor the trendline. But today’s price action has influenced my decision - the bulls and bears are currently equally powered and it looks like both of them do not want to pick a fight now.
04 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty - no change in stanceBanknifty on the other hand is still in the bearish zone and still continues to provide some hope for the handful of bears that are left. Even though we ended up with 0.82% gains compared to 0.7% of Nifty, banks are still not out of bear hold.
The reason is the price action. We had an intraday rally of 601pts ~ 1.35% and then a fall of 525pts ~ 1.17%. Although I changed my stance of Nifty from bearish to neutral, I do not wish to change the stance of banknifty. I prefer to go with bearish bias, but the situations are not conducive for a fall. The crash in India VIX to 10.57% ~ -5.48% is the biggest example.
There is absolutely no fear, the options prices are reflective of that. Since the premiums have dropped, an option seller would be quite scary to take naked positions home. A small rise in volatility will unleash the beast in banknifty - an area to look for is the “Loan growth” reported by the banks and not just their quarterly revenue or profits. Loan growth shows the actual demand. Are people coming in flocks to take new loans? That too with high interest rates?
02 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty | Bearish trend continues From yesterday we were bearish, so the moves in the forenoon session gave us some validation. But it was nothing like Nifty, the cuts in banknifty were not aggressive even though we lost similar points. The options flow was not indicating that deep a fall till afternoon - the premiums on nifty was far superior than banknifty (which has been unusual lately). Sometimes cannot really differentiate which has a higher beta - nifty or banknifty.
Banknifty fell 612pts by 12.00, then 412pts between 12.50 to 14.20 and the final recovery of 361pts in the last hour ensured the final loss was only 1.31% ~ 596pts which is not bad at all. If we stay like this, then banknifty will have to take leadership in the bearish trend. Since it has a 38% weightage - the institutions may target the financial sector to drive down the prices on Nifty too.
The 2 horizontal lines is a safe zone for banknifty, a strong break of 44598 will give bears total control and the double top would have given some bulls to take a breather. We will continue to have a bearish bias till proven wrong.
03 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis 🐻🐻BankNifty Weekly Analysis
Banknifty has fallen an impressive 3.18% compared to just 1.89% of Nifty. The major reason for that is
Banknifty always acts as leading indicator in a trend change
NiftyIT and Reliance were supporting Nifty in the last week.
Once the US market started falling due to the Fitch rating downgrade, NiftyIT started correcting which ensured Nifty’s breakdown. Now why BankNifty chart pattern screamed a bearish opportunity before Nifty - I really dont know. The price action of 27th Jul was very strange and unusual.
BankNifty Daily Analysis
Today’s price action was in perfect harmony with yesterday’s. The ease with which the chart pattern could be plotted was as simple as going short in today’s expiry. The day started pretty ordinary for OTM options, but after 10.00 the premiums started jumping indicating a market trending opportunity.
The real move came only after 11.30 wherein we dropped 591pts ~ 1.32% till 14.10. Overall we fell 754pts from High to low of which ~80% came after 11.30. There was also a decent recovery of 325pts ~ 0.73% in the last 1hr 20mts.
The final close of just 1.07% ~ 482pts loss is not a deal breaker at all. Basically the market participants are still euphoric and the fear level is absolutely near zero. The VIX falling today even after a 6% surge intraday is proof. For push down of prices - we would need more intense selling on HDFCBK, ICICIBK, SBIN, AXISBANK which has a decent FII exposure and has seen a one-way rally.
The double top pattern from yesterday has now changed into a head and shoulders further reconfirming our short side possibilities. Until proven wrong, we prefer to go short.
#BANKNIFTY… Looking good for this level#BANKNIFTY...
Intraday as well as swing trade
All levels given in charts ...
IF good potential seen then we work in options also
if activate then possible a good movement Keep eye on this ...
We take trade only when it activates...
Possible to give good target
TRADING FACTS
01 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty | The bears havent left townBanknfty fell 309pts ~ 0.68% from the day’s high to the day’s low. The gap up open was a surprise but the fall wasn't. Unlike Nifty, banknify is out of bearish hold yet. However the inability to push down prices even after getting an initial momentum during the day may not go in favor of the bears.
The top formed today (encircled in blue) may be considered as the first lower high as we have respected the M like pattern (double top). I wish to change my bias from neutral to bearish for banknifty for tomorrow.
...
Comment with your thoughts, opinion or bias, I will respond with the levels I am watching for tomorrow !
BankNifty Trade Setup for 31-07-2023BankNifty important intraday levels to watch for 31-07-2023
#Support: 45240
Short if candle closes below 45240
#resistance: 45500
Long if candle closes above 45500
#Targets on downside after break of support.
Target 1= 45040
Target 2= 45800
#Targets on upside after break of resistance.
Target 1= 45670
Target 2= 45790
Target 3= 45980
Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
Follow us for more such information and educational ideas. Give it a like if you appreciate the idea.
Queries will be answered in comment section.
28 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty | Bears are still in controlBanknifty did not disappoint the bears as much as Nifty did today. The day began with a gap down right at the swing low of yesterday and in no time we reached the 45380 levels. From there we had a gradual drop to the intraday low of 45238.
There was a pullback of 272pts ~ 0.6% but bears managed to close the day with a total cut of 0.46% ~ 211pts below yesterday’s close. NiftyIT had a bigger fall today, but the interesting aspect is the sector rotation was absent between the IT and banks.
Instead all the other major sectors like energy, metals, fmcg took the initiative to keep Nifty close to green and away from a bear attack.
On the 1hr TF we continue to hold onto our bearish view as long as the double top pattern holds.
...
Comment with your thoughts, opinion or bias, I will respond with mine :)
FASP levels for Bank Nifty 31/07/2023The FASP for BankNifty is listed for 31-07-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
Banknifty weekly analysis for 31/07/23.Banknifty has formed a halt candle this week after a nice bullish move last week.
On the daily time frame, it has taken a double support from 20 ema and 61.8% Fibonacci levels.
The market has formed a doji on the daily chart. Though market has given a breakdown of the range it was trading but there is still confusion where will it move.
On the hourly charts, market has closed between both the moving average. There are chance of market testing the 200 ema and if it also closed below it, 44500 levels can also be tested.
The market is looking bullish on the weekly charts, confusing on daily charts and bearish on the hourly charts. Watch the market for intraday trades and closing of daily for swing and positional trades.
Support :- 45300, 45100
Resistance :- 45500, 45650
Banknifty is trading in an area where there is resistance and support in small range. Small targets should be taken in this kind of market as there can be a sideways market.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.