Banknifty weekly view for 28/08/23.Banknifty has formed a gravestone doji after retesting 50% fibonacci level of the recent swing.
It has retest the upper levels after taking support from the 20 ema on weekly charts and is trading above the level.
On the daily charts, the market has been trading below the 20 ema and hasn't closed above the moving averages. There was a gap up opening above the moving averages but it couldn't sustain above the level and closed below it.
Banknifty has some support cushion below and there will be a good sell off once market start trading below 43400 levels which is the previous swing low.
On the hourly charts, in the last trading session, market traded below both the moving averages. It took support around 44000 levels and recover quickly after testing the levels and remained volatile after the sudden boom.
There is Cup and handle formation, on 15 minutes charts. The moving averages are close enough and market has closed below both the moving averages.
Support :- 44000, 43750
Resistance :- 44475, 44690
The markets are still volatile and even on the last trading session didn't gave any trending move. Watch markets carefully as the support and resistance are nearby.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
Bankniftyoptions
FASP levels for Bank Nifty 25/08/2023The FASP for BankNifty is listed for 25-08-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
Banknifty daily analysis for 25/08/23.Banknifty has given a flat closing after a gap up opening of more than 200 points and unable to close above the 20 ema.
On the hourly charts, there was a sell off after the first hour candle and the trend continued and started trading below 200 ema in the second half.
Dow Jones is also trading in red. Indian market may also be bearish in short term.
The market has closed between both the moving averages on 15 minute charts.
Banknifty has given a nice rally and looks stronger than nifty.
Support :- 44450, 44310, 44100
Resistance :- 44900, 45080
Market tried to touch 45000 but the seller took market 500 point down from day's high. There are support for market and if the last support level 43580 is breached in the coming week, there are high chance of market carrying a bearish trend.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
24 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty, Bulls have the upper hand🐂BankNifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry and today, BankNifty has gained 595pts ~ 1.36%. This is exactly why I said banknifty works as a leading indicator to detect trend changes. If you notice carefully the outperformance has started in BN, not quite in N50 (up only 0.17% weekly). And in the turn of events today, BN held its ground - cheers for that !
BankNifty Daily Analysis
Today’s price action was action packed just like Nifty’s. If you are an options trader a simple glance at the OTM premiums will help you understand what I am trying to say. Since we had a gap-up opening an implosion in implied volatility followed which killed the options premium.
Once we hit the day’s high 44949 @ 09.45 and the reversal started - the options premiums (OTMs) started jumping unusually. And what followed was a strong profit taking I must say. We fell 513 pts ~ 1.14% from the HOD to the LOD today. The intensity of the fall 1.10% was the same as that of Nifty but a higher gap-up combined with a climb to the high of the day gave banknifty a better closing than expected.
BN closed flat at 0.04% compared with N50 which fell 0.29%. Also on the 1hr TF banknifty is still bullish as the falling wedge pattern is untouched. As long as it stays this way, the momentum will pick in BN and a breakout will play out.
On the other hand if we get into the falling wedge pattern even after the convergence, it results in an immediate support breach which is quite bad news for the bulls. Looking at the performance this week - the trend should favor the bulls wherein the Nifty bulls could play the catch-up. I prefer to maintain my bullish stance for tomorrow and will be forced to go directly to bearish if 44068 is taken out on the hourly candle.
23 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty | BN becomes a 🚀🚀🚀We will start with BankNifty today, because we had a reversal pattern today. According to me trend changes are first spotted on BankNifty and hence it works as a leading indicator.
This is what I said in yesterday’s report: Also note that the falling wedge will converge tomorrow, so a strong up move is more dangerous. The bulls will use that opportunity to drive the prices up and it could even take out the 44800 levels in one go.I am not quite sure which of these scenarios will work for tomorrow. I am inclined to go with the bearish stance as its still under the resistance of 44068.
What really happened today is Banknifty took out the resistance of 44068 by 11.05 and went all the way up to 44521. There was a swing of 567pts ~ 1.29% today. Literally BN became the rocket today. We did breakout from the falling wedge pattern and turned bullish.
The same is shown on the 1hr TF, notice we had 4 hourly candles above the bearish trend line. This indicates a breakout usually. Also the candles at 10.15 and 12.15 (before and after the break) were strong enough suggesting a change in sentiment.
Luckily we were prepared for such a scenario today and did not mess up with the existing short position. The reason I took up banknifty analysis before nifty is to show you that Nifty did not have a clean break today. Whereas BN did, the reason could also be due to the slope of the falling wedge. The convergence of the bearish trendline and the horizontal support happened today - so Banknifty had to either breakout or breakdown.
Though I dont exactly know what change in fundamentals caused the breakout, from the technical analysis angle - the move did not come as a surprise. I wish to change my stance from bearish to bullish for tomorrow. If we fall below 44068 in the morning session, I might have to go bearish again.
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(23/08/2023) Today will be gap up opening in BANKNIFTY . After opening if banknifty sustain above 44050 level then possible upside rally of 400-500 points upto 44450 Level. Any Major downside only expected in case banknifty starts trading below 43950 level. & this rally can extend 400 points if market gives breakdown of 43450 level.
Banknifty daily analysis for 23/08/23.Market are still not in a trending phase and it consolidating in a narrow range.
Banknifty after a gap up opening tried to trade above 44100 levels but couldn't sustain above the levels and came for selling in the second half of the session after consolidating in the first half.
On the hourly charts, market has closed around 20 ema and is trading around 44k levels. Banknifty has closed below both the moving averages and the sell off is also showing some negative sentiments.
Market has been facing a good resistance from 44100 levels as it was unable to close above the levels and closed almost flat on daily time frame.
On 15 minutes time frame, it has closed below both the moving averages and has taken support around 43950 levels .
Support :- 43930, 43740
Resistance :- 44090, 44320
A good consolidation is going on in the market and a good trending market will be there once buyer sellers fight is over. Watch for good targets with trailing stop loss.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
21 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty | Stance is still bearish Looking at the way Nifty performed in the morning session, I was quite worried that the stance on BankNifty might also have to be changed. The level that we were looking for was 44068 which is the first resistance zone.
At 13.15 we broke that in the 5mts candle, and then we broke it again at 13.55 - but the momentum was not strong enough. There was a strong fall of 159pts in the last 30mts which would have given some respite for the bears. Basically it was this move that helped me decide to not change the stance.
The moves today were as bullish as Nifty, the only reason was the failure of resistance breach. The foundation of my tech analysis is based on support and resistance - so if we do not get a clear break, then I still consider it as a continuation pattern. This is the case even if the price action is strongly opposing it.
On the 1hr TF, the pattern is quite similar to Nifty - the only difference is that the price is below the SR line whereas its above for Nifty. As long as we are below the resistance in a falling wedge pattern - its still a bearish signal. Meanwhile the convergence is coming up real soon and an upward thrust could shift the momentum in bullish favor. The reason for faster convergence is because the slope is steeper for banknifty. For tomorrow I would prefer to retain my bearish stance until we have an hourly closing above the 44068 zone.
Banknifty TradeSetup for 18-08-2023Banknifty important levels to watch are as follows
#Support: 43735
Sell below: 43735 only on 15 minute candle closure below the level.
Target 1: 43520
Target 2: 43290
#Resistance: 43925
Buy Above: 43925 only on 15 minute candle closure Above the level.
Target 1: 44070
Target 2: 44281
#Demand Zone: 43730-43810 may act as a immediate buying zone, and price may bounce from the region marked in green on the chart.
#Supply Zone: 44000-44070 may act as an immediate selling zone, and price may reject from the region marked in red on the chart.
#Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
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17 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty + Weekly Expiry AnalysisBankNifty Weekly Analysis
The bears have managed to take out 674pts ~ 1.52% between the last expiry and today. A sign of momentum getting built. We have taken out 1 important support level of 44068 in this week - something to cheer for the bears. Overall sentiment is looking bearish as the EMAs are diverging.
BankNifty Today Analysis
We had a flat today, but there was some important action today. Banknifty rallied 231pts ~ 0.53% between 09.35 to 11.05 in a show of character. Guess what point we had the reversal then? 44068 which is the marked SR zone.
The fall from 11.05 lasted till 12.55 with over 321pts ~ 0.73% shed. The good thing for the bulls was that the selling stopped there. We did not retest the swing low of 43600 nor the next support of 43404.
I would say banknifty had so much potential firepower today - visible from the more than usual premiums for OTM. But it did not materialise into actionable swings. Possibly the movements may come tomorrow - let us see how deep the bears can gap us down.
The steepness of the bearish trend line may be at the same angle as that of Nifty, but the action looks more intense for BankNifty. Since the support level of 44068 was not defended and the resistance got rejected - the floor is now open for the BEAR DANCE.
The next support comes 400pts lower and if we manage to take that out with pace - the further drill downs will be easy. On the contrary if we fall slowly, it will open up a congestion zone and the bears may cede control. I wish to maintain the bearish stance for tomorrow as well.
If you have any queries - please drop comments below, I will reply.
Banknifty expiry tradesetup for 17-08-2023Banknifty important levels to watch are as follows
#Support: 43860
Sell below: 43860 only on 15 minute candle closure below the level.
Target 1: 43730
Target 2: 43600
Target 3: 43455
#Resistance: 43970
Buy Above: 43970 only on 15 minute candle closure Above the level.
Target 1: 44180
Target 2: 44410
#Demand Zone: 43700-44800 may act as a immediate buying zone, and price may bounce from the region marked in green on the chart.
#Supply Zone: 44160-44180 may act as an immediate selling zone, and price may reject from the region marked in red on the chart.
#Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
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16 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty, Bearish stance hanging on🧵From the moment we started today, Banknifty looked and stayed bearish for the entire day today. In the opening minutes we dropped 1.06% ~ 465pts and then there was a decent recovery of 403pts ~ 0.93 by 15.05
Last session we discussed the support/resistance zone of 44068. We have broken that today and the close ensured we have conclusively breached it. HDFCBK made a decent recovery today which was the primary reason banknifty cut its losses to just 0.3% ~ 144pts today. HDCBK was carrying on the bad news that its NII will be impacted after the merger.
Banknifty does not require a stance change and we continue to remain bearish. The first support level is 43404 and the first resistance is 44068 (marked on the chart yellow horizontal lines). From an options premium perspective, even after the strong moves today - the OTM premiums were not surging - suggesting no more wild swings for the day. I was really hoping to see some action today, but ended the day on a disappointing note.
BankNifty completes rising wedge pattern next week ?Hi All,
Hope all are doing great.
Here’s my 1D timeframe analysis. As we can see in the chart from 14-Dec-2022 to 6-Apr-2023 around 113 days there was a good falling channel pattern. It broke and achieved twice the target.
The next 113 days from the previous breakout is forming beautiful rising wedge pattern. As per the pattern nature it might break below to the given support level 43659.
Always trade carefully with proper SL because it’s your hard earned money.
Please note this is just my observation and purely for educational purposes only. Consult with your financial advisor before taking any trade.
Bank Nifty daily analysisSince last two weeks the bank nifty has been consolidated about 5%. with the immediate supports at 43850 and 43600 and resistance @ 44450 this week expiry will be deciding the banks movement on consolidation or breaking the trend. On any break of the immediate levels there could be huge upward or downward movement of 800 points.
14 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty - Tests SR @ 44068 🐻🐻🐻Banknifty also made a decent recovery after the 482pts ~ 1.09% fall in the opening 20mts. It retraced 433pts by 15.00. And then fell a little to close out with only 0.2% losses @ 44090.
Even though the recovery was good, it was not as dramatic as Nifty50. And we are back at an important support/resistance level of 44068. So bank nifty has retested its old SR level before Nifty which still means the downtrend could continue a bit more. Earlier on I did mention in the last report that BankNifty is the leading indicator for trend in India vs NASDAQ in US.
Today’s close on the 1hr TF will give some proof for that. The final close is quite far away(below) the trend line and my 50 & 200 EMA is widening. The stance continues to be bearish with 44068 as the first SR and 43404 as the next SR.
11 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty | Top bear in overdriveBanks were just continuing the trend from yesterday. The first candle saw a swing of 247pts ~ 0.56%. From there they were holding it steady till 12.40.
Something interesting happened at the 13.00 candle which was a strong green of 128pts. HDFCBK, ICICI, SBIN, AXIS all were shooting up. What happened right after that was a super spike in RELIANCE (up 1.38% between 13.00 to 14.35). I assume the operators had to sell the banks to offset the points getting added by reliance.
We fell another 341pts between the 13.05 to 15.05 period further cementing the bearish trend.
I have fixed the trend line as per the ORANGE line shared yesterday as I felt it resonates better with the current situation. We have 2 sets of double tops & 1 set each of head-shoulder & inverse head-shoulder now. I wish to maintain full bearish stance until proven wrong.
Falling channel in banknifty 1 hourHi All,
Banknifty is forming falling channel already broke and retested yesterday. 45092 will act as immediate resistance on upper side. If that breaks channel target 44550.
Please consider this is for educational purposes only and consult with your financial advisor before taking any trade.
08 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty | Stance is neutral !The major reason Nifty50 stayed strong without falling much is banknifty. It did show an attempt to break free from the bearish trend, the opening rush of 279pts till 10.40 is proof for that. From there was loss of steam and a pull back of 204pts. Once this inverted V shape was completed - there was lack of direction or momentum. Options data also indicated a non-directional trend post 11.30.
The change in stance from bearish to neutral worked well for banknifty today. We have marginally closed above the trendline. But for a bullish breakout we need to take back the 45400-45600 levels soon - I am not sure if there is enough momentum for that right now.
If the trades taken on Finnifty today were positional in nature due to expiry, we may have an unwinding tomorrow. This could also pull back banknifty back to the bearish zone - so currently the best idea would be to wait for tomorrow’s price action.