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Bankniftyoptions

PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 14 FEB 2023My bearish call for yesterday turned out to be wrong - sorry to have disappointed you ! We had a dramatic performance by NSE:BANKNIFTY today even after a higher than expected inflation of 6.52%. Although we had 2 sharp moves, none of the support or resistance was broken - which means we still have no clue on the direction. NSE:BANKNIFTY opened at 41410 made a low at 9.47 just 0.51% ~ 212pts drop. Although this level does not have any major support or resistance -  NSE:BANKNIFTY was not falling. There was a sideways movement till 11.25 after which it started picking up direction. I am not quite sure what gave away suddenly - was it the more than expected profit report from Adani enterprise that helped the bank's jump? There was an intraday rally of 1.13% ~ 465pts from the stable level at 11.30 to 14.35. There was a near vertical move from 13.45 to 14.10 - all green candles. What this did to the option prices was that the CE shorts got covered and fresh PE shorts were written. The surge in options volume shows that. I cannot really say that the 41624 resistance was taken out as the final close was at 41617, still this sudden surge in prices brought about a sentiment change from negative to neutral. --- 15mts chart is still showing sideways ie neutral, today we ran out of time to break the resistance level. So if tomorrow we start gap-up then we might see fresh longs added. 41624 resistance has not given away in the last 5 attempts. --- 1hr TF is still not bullish or neutral, it still looks bearish to me. If the resistance gets taken out - then i too will look out for bullish trades esp because the expiry is coming up in 2 days. --- Almost all banks had a breakout trade today, the swing range from LOD to HOD marked. NSE:HDFCBANK had a swing of 1.1% from LOD to HOD - not that much to comment about, but this bank was staying & took out the swing high of 6th Feb NSE:ICICIBANK had a swing of 1.68% of this a single candle at 13.55 brought in 0.41%. NSE:SBIN was below water today and the surge not only helped it close in green, but pulled bank nifty's gain to 0.9%. There was a swing of 2.58% NSE:AXISBANK had a perfect V shaped chart pattern when yesterday's price action is also considered. Almost a 2% intraday swing & a near vertical trade from 13.15 to 13.55. NSE:KOTAKBANK was flat today NSE:INDUSINDBK dipped into red early in the day & then bounced back to close in green.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 13 FEB 2023I was running out of content last week to write about, thank god we had some interesting price move today - hoping to see further action in this week. Mostly due to the above expected retail inflation surge of 6.52%. NSE:BANKNIFTY fall today was not due to the above expected CPI - i can say this with assurance because there was anomaly in the price action of hdfcbk vs bank nifty. Over the last couple of weeks there was a good correlation in the price action of NSE:BANKNIFTY (index) vs Hdfcbk (the major weighted stock).  Today's fall was mainly due to the beating SBI took today - is the Adani fear back again ? because LIC also took a hit today. Coming back to the subject, NSE:BANKNIFTY fell 1.02% ~ 424 pts from the HOD to the first leg low at 10.05. We had another leg of fall 0.59% ~ 244pts to the LOD at 12.20. From there we had a recovery of 188pts and then a close with a negative bias. The candle at 14.45 may be from the CPI expectation ! On 10th Feb we did discuss the possibility of bearishness, read the report here  Looking at today's fall from the resistance level - i foresee more pain ahead as the nearest support point is 380 to 400pts away. If we fall that much tomorrow - then the algos & the trend following traders will kick in & we can expect further dip. I was expecting the India inflation numbers to be reported tomorrow, the source i follow investing.com had mentioned in their calendar as 14th for India CPI. Not that i was planning to take a positional trade ! The far away OTMs did not react that much to the fall today, even though India Vix surged 7.3% today, the NSE:BANKNIFTY implied volatility has not shot up that much. May be tomorrow we can see some action on far OTMs. In the last 15mts we did see some aggressive options writing at CEs, these again would be the positional shorting done because of NSE:BANKNIFTY s failure to take out the resistance. Absence of positive is getting considered as negative here ! --- 15mts TF is still not bearish, it shows sideways momentum only. --- 1hr TF - the price is starting to dip, took a turn from the resistance level. I am seriously expecting the swing low of 39421 getting taken out very soon. --- There were anomalies in the NSE:BANKNIFTY components trading today, lets discuss it one by one NSE:HDFCBANK outperformed other major banks. Even though the forenoon session was below water, there was a rally of 1% from 12.15 to 14.05. In the same interval other banks fell - which could mean this might be the counter weight applied to prevent bank nifty falling very quickly NSE:ICICIBANK had a fall of 1.11% from 10.45 to close in 2 legs. Both the legs showed aggressiveness. Its not wrong to say, the bell saved ICICI today. NSE:SBIN had an intraday swing of -4.21% ~ 23.43pts and that too in opening 45mts. From there there was a narrow range bound trade resembling an inverted flag. This could mean there could be one more flag like pattern in near future. NSE:AXISBANK also had a fall today, but it was not surprising as the chart pattern was bearish from the previous many days. There was a fall of 1.31% between 10.55 to 12.35. NSE:KOTAKBANK had a super opening candle and then 5 consecutive red candles that gave away the gains and dipped kotak below water. The max trade range was only 1.29% even though the length of the candles seemed quite big. Final close was flattish. NSE:INDUSINDBK had a negative pattern today, but when the previous days are analyzed together it shows just a sideways momentum. to view the 6 charts in today's discussion visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 10 FEB 2023Another range bound day today with no resistance or support breaks, straddles would have loved it with the premiums dying 17 to 18% without having to do anything. This week on monday, wednesday & friday - i was unable to find any short selling opportunity - now thats a first!  NSE:BANKNIFTY opened gap down 41452, but if you look at the trading chart - it felt inline. See the 2 upward sloping yellow line, BN was continuing from the momentum it got from 13.25 yesterday. But this did not last that long, we hit the resistance zone at 41629 & had a reversal back to previous close. The rally was only of 0.56% ~ 233 pts from LOD to HOD. Straddlers ie those who would have sold ATM CE & PE would have benefited the most as it was a perfect flat close.  NSE:NIFTY had a negative closing today - the traded range was steady wrt open & close NiftyIT also had a lower close mainly on account of fall on HCLTECH In that respect NSE:BANKNIFTY outperformed both the other indices --- In the 15mts TF, NSE:BANKNIFTY has not made any changes w.r.t the stance yesterday. The fall on 1st Feb is still not taken out, after 4 instances of retouch on 41629 resistance. I may be inclined to go bearish for an ultra short term if BN is unable to take out the resistance on monday also. --- 1hr TF is starting to swing in flavor or bears again because the inability to take out the resistance. Also the chart shows falling prices with some consolidation near the support lines.  --- Among the NSE:BANKNIFTY components in 5mts TF NSE:HDFCBANK had a strange looking last candle, almost a Rs5 drop in price - i do not remember spotting it during market close. It was HDFCbk that was providing immense support to bank nifty today, from 12.10 to 15.20 there was a steady bullish momentum. NSE:ICICIBANK had a volume spike at 12.55 and from that point onwards the volume levels have stayed elevated. The chart promises to be bearish. NSE:SBIN also stayed in positive zone today, almost a 2% rally from LOD to HOD in opening 45mts & a gradual cool off from there. NSE:AXISBANK did have some drama today, symmetrical drop & recoup of prices from HOD to LOD & then back to HOD. If we take into yesterday's price action also - the chart looks bearish. NSE:KOTAKBANK had a flat chart pattern & its back to its multi year SR of 1780 to 1800. NSE:INDUSINDBK bank had an opening fall & the it gained back all it lost from 11.50 to 13.50
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 09 FEB 2023 Expiry Looking at the opening 30 minutes i seriously thought today's price action is really going to be awesome. I was fully loaded with a 41000:40900 debit ratio that would have made a lot of money if NSE:BANKNIFTY crossed the 40900 barrier. And for a moment i seriously thought we will have deeper cuts, but quite unsurprisingly bank nifty stopped falling at 09.45. The open was right at the resistance level of 41629 & the fall was 0.9% ~ 375pts in 30mts. From 09.45 to 13.40 we had a sideways move that failed to create option mispricing. So this entire week we had a low volatility, low premium expiry. Bank nifty started picking up momentum after 13.25, again the same ended just before the resistance zone of 41629. The upmove was 0.78% ~ 324pts.  To make some money today, i had to exit and reenter the same strike price multiple times. I could not afford to short a nearer ATM strike due to the fear of a big move. So i had to time the exit and re-entry properly to catch the small price swings. --- The 15mts TF is again showing sideways momentum, but the downside is clearly getting protected. If NSE:BANKNIFTY is able to take out the nearest resistance we may really have a good upmove. --- 1hr TF is not showing bullishness yet - its kind of tricky to take a trade now. In case of a breakout the momentum is going to be so strong that the jump in premiums will be multi fold.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty For tomorrow. Huge momentum expected ? HUGE FALL!!??😮Analysis for tomorrow will be same as monday but some levels are changed, because of sideways market of 3 three days so, use this levels to trade tomorrow expiry. One thing market may defintely trap you. Summary:- View is bearish for banknifty. ZONES AND LEVELS ARE IN THE CHART MARK IT IN YOUR CHART & IF MKT BREAKS 42000 THEN ONLY GO FOR LONG OTHERWISE AVOID WHICH I TOLD BEFORE Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any particular trading strategy. The views and opinions expressed here are personal. The information contained here has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not necessarily complete, and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. I may have positions in the securities or instruments shared as ideas. Do your own research OR consult a financial advisor for personalized investment advice.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by pn202377
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 08 FEB 2023Today was another day of personal disappointment for me as i could not find a suitable option selling opportunity. NSE:BANKNIFTY opened inline went over the resistance line of 41629 and then fell back to the negative zone. The open to HOD was only a move of 0.73% ~ 304pts. The swing of HOD to LOD was a fall of 0.92% ~ 382pts ie from 10.05 to 10.45. Even though we had 2 swings, first into positive territory & second to the negative - the option premiums did not jump that much. There was very little volatility that could cause the option mispricing - so i was sitting like a guy in the park with nothing to do. While the premiums are low its quite dangerous to short options - because you never know when the premiums will shoot up. Since we had the RBI MPC interest rate decision (0.25% hike in interest rate), i thought atleast that will create some wild swings. So now for 2 consecutive days we have a low volatility market. End of the day i bought a 41000/40900 2:3 debit ratio spread for tomorrow expiry. Well the rationale being to go ahead and short some PE options & use the debit spread as a hedge. --- 15mts TF is showing sideways momentum only. The inability to break the 41629 resistance is now starting to get serious. I still think only a gap up can break it. --- 1hr TF is starting to become a lower high if the resistances are not getting taken out. If it spends more time like this it will give the bears more courage to take fresh short positions & tip the market to the negative territory. So now we have the NSE:NIFTY and NiftyIT sharply outperforming NSE:BANKNIFTY today. We cannot count on the NiftyIT because thats quite a reflection of what happens with NDQ in US. If NDQ falls today then NiftyIT will underperform tomorrow. That is the only index that has some level of correlation with the US markets - all other indices are in an orbit of its own. India being the first market to stay in the bull market throughout the Covid period. --- Among the bank nifty components: NSE:HDFCBANK again had a good correlation with the nifty bank today also. NSE:ICICIBANK had a rising chart pattern with the last 2 candles trying to tell something NSE:SBIN stayed in positive zone, there was a dip below water in 1 candle but the recovery was good. NSE:AXISBANK stayed down today with no signs of recovery NSE:KOTAKBANK has again hit its multi year resistance line and just dropped slightly. NSE:INDUSINDBK ended the day in positive with a nice looking chart pattern showing further bullishness. to view all the charts in today's discussion visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 07 FEB 2023Unlike yesterday we had some price moves today, a typical V pattern that would have given traders something to cheer about. Otherwise a falling volatility would have sucked out the premiums from the weekly options. NSE:BANKNIFTY open was inline at 41513, traded flat till 10.35 after which we had our first move of the day. A 1.08% ~ 448pts fall from 10.40 to 13.05. This was a gradual down move and nothing alarming. Then we had a V shaped recovery from 13.15 to 14.55, a 1.27% ~ 523pts upmove that halted right at the resistance line of 41629 & then cooled off & closed at 41464. I was almost enticed to do the 42000/42100 2:3 ratio spread but when i saw the halt at resistance - i opted out. Seems like the only way NSE:BANKNIFTY can take out the 41629 level is by a gap-up, because on all the recent traded attempts - its just failing. And we all know BN is a master of gap-up & gap-down. The final close was pretty similar with the opening levels and today's price move was almost a mirror image of yesterday's session. --- When we look at the 15mts chart, its showing sideways momentum. So we need a gap up/down opening to change the status quo. If it stands like this we might really have a boring expiry on 9th Feb. --- Today's flat move and the inability to take out the resistance may dent the bullish case from the W pattern as discussed yesterday and 3rd. So we wait and watch for clarity. --- Among the NSE:BANKNIFTY components: NSE:HDFCBANK had a good correlation with the banknifty chart today. A fall of 1.69% in the forenoon session & a recovery to close with 1.17% upside from the LOD NSE:ICICIBANK was trading below water for most of the day today, There was a recovery of 1.02% from the LOD to the flat line by 14.45 but that faded out. NSE:SBIN was staying above the water for most of the time, there was a fall of 1.81% from HOD to LOD but the final close was in green. This is quite good because we had a good QoQ & if SBI isnt falling then its pulling up its socks for an upside momentum. NSE:AXISBANK had a bearish day today, chart pattern continuing with the trend set yesterday. The fall from HOD to LOD was 1.87%, but there was a recovery and it went above water for a brief period before closing in red NSE:KOTAKBANK was outperforming today right from the start. 2 legs of upmoves, first one with a gain of 1.32% then a slight cool off followed by another 1.06% gain. Final close 1.63% high. NSE:INDUSINDBK was also continuing from the trend set yesterday, with steady upmove today.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram