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Bankniftyoptions

PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 21 FEB 2023We had a relatively calm day today comparing to what was happening last 2 to 3 sessions. Since we had the FinNifty expiry today - there was some stability offered by HDFC, HDFCbk & BajFinance. This really prevented NSE:BANKNIFTY making further lows for the day today because at 13.05 i almost thought we will be seeing a range expansion & a massive fall. Mostly because the options premiums were still higher anticipating a bigger move.  This is not the first time i am suspecting FinNifty to create unwanted speculations in NSE:BANKNIFTY . The operators would have wanted a decent close for the expiry day & the position built in FinNifty would have altered the natural course for NSE:BANKNIFTY index. But thats alright, because what is being done is 100% legal and legitimate. If i am wrong, then NSE:HDFCBANK should be holding the same levels tomorrow & thursday too. Today's open was at 40784 and we had the SR of 40704 getting taken out in the first candle itself. 130pts taken out in the first 5mts. There was a fall to the LOD, a total fall of only 0.66% ~ 270pts. From there the HOD was made at 11.20 a good recovery of 431pts mainly led by NSE:HDFCBANK . This HOD might have formed the lower high if we look at the higher time frame, but the selling momentum was just not enough. From 12.10 to close we had a perfect range bound trade just like an engineered one. This also ensured the options premiums fell. Would like to reiterate from yesterday's report also that the PE option writers are not expecting a big fall for this expiry - that explains the unusual low premiums. --- 15mts TF showing a minor pause today from a down trend that just started forming. Coming sessions should be monitored closely to confirm if the bearishness continues or not. --- 1hr Tf also showing a minor pause below the resistance level. My next marked support level is 1000pts deep, so i expect a fall if it happens to be brutal. Lot of smart operators would have taken positions at the 39800 levels & they wouldnt be forced to square off that position until the index closes lower than that. If the next 1000pts drop comes in pretty quickly, these smart operators may be forced to close out early - creating a further downside. Now all these are speculations & has to be read with caution. Our job is to find how the market is moving & then try reacting to it by taking positions. We could be right or wrong - if we are right we should be making good money. And if we are wrong we shouldnt lose that much !
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty daily analysis for 22/02/2023.Banknifty has formed a doji, consolidating in a range on only 400 points. It is taking support from 40600 levels and can retest resistance before another fall. On the hourly time frame, market remained volatile and in the second half consolidated in 40600-770 range. The market has given a nice consolidation and beark out/down will be good to trade. Banknifty is trading around 50% fib levels and can give either side move. Support :- 40600, 40115 Resistance :- 40940, 41250 Market is volatile, giving nice consolidation zone. The break down/out can be traded with R:R ratio 1:2-1:3. Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the markets.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 20 FEB 2023The support that showed strength on 17th gave away today. Even the 2nd support also looked vulnerable today. All this on a day where US markets are on a holiday! Most of the traders would have felt NSE:BANKNIFTY is going up today especially when the open was in the green 41221 & first 1hr was above flat line. This was not the case though, we had almost a one way fall right till the support level that showed rejection on Friday ie 40880 zone. There was a fall of 1.07% ~ 443 pts from the HOD to the first rest zone. NSE:BANKNIFTY started the next leg of fall at 13.20 and went below the 2nd support level of 40704 another 0.89% ~ 366pts fall. From here there was some pull back approx. 0.42% ~ 168pts to close right at the support level. If we look at the 5mts TF we had a break of support, whereas in the 1hr TF the support level is yet to be broken. The dangerous aspect is that my next support zone comes at 39742 ie 1000pts lower than the current level. Also the same area which had prior retests ie on 30th Jan & 1st Feb. Somehow if the third time we go there - there is a high likely hood that we may see a pass ! The option prices were quite crazy today, equidistant PE & CE were having a huge anomaly. PE prices were not rising even after the kind of butchering we saw today - whereas there was heavy option writing volume on the CE side creating this unexplainable skew. 39000 PE 23.8 to 10.6 from 14.25 to 15.25 ie a fall of 55.5% this is a strike that is 1700pts away from ATM On the same level, 42500 CE which is 1800pts away from ATM closed at 15.85 up 4.07% from the 14.25 price. Just imagine, the PE has a premium of 10.6 vs CE of 15.85 for a market that has fallen 1.05%. What this translates into is that PE option writers are willing to sell at a lower premium - being very confident that the markets will not dip that much over the next 3 days. Whereas the CE option writers are making good use of the implied volatility & trying to get max bang for their rupee. --- 15mts TF is looking bearish now because of the quick break in 3 SR levels. Also the price action formed via 2 legs is showing stability, also indicating the momentum could pick up in a week or two. --- 1hr TF, this is the 3rd time i am seeing an inverted cup & handle pattern. We could call it the "inverted cup after cleaning" pattern. The 3 instances of the same pattern highlighted in blue pen. To see the 8 charts in discussion today visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty daily analysis for 21/02/23.Banknifty has touched the support level of 41600 and closed around 41700 levels. The market is trading below the 20 ema and can touch the 200 ema. The market is showing some negativity and remained for selling whole day after touching the resistance levels. On the hourly time frame, the market has been trading below the moving averages and will retest it before another fall. Market has consolidated in 40100-41600 levels and if the support levels are broken it can test the recent lows. Support :- 41600, 41110 Resistance :-40880, 41240 Wait for the price action near the price levels before entering the markets.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 16 FEB 2023 ExpiryWhat good was done yesterday is undone today, we had a resistance rejection as well as the support breach - NSE:BANKNIFTY below 41624 again ! Most of them would have guessed it right that NSE:BANKNIFTY wont break out from the 41940 resistance zone. But very few would have guessed that we will have a breakdown of the support level 41624. The one we just cut through in the last 1 hr of trade yesterday. On one hand i am feeling happy that my 1hr TF analysis from yesterday worked out, but i am kind of feeling sad that my 41600 PE buy went to zero today. The fall came very late in the day not helping the premium to surge. The open was gap up right at the resistance level at 41925, the gap was not closed until 10.20. Even though small the small recovery from 10.30 to 11.00 is what killed the premium in 41600 PE today. The fall was lacking speed due to which the premiums were fast eroding, the fall of 0.65% ~ 274pts came only by 13.00. The minor pull back of 157 pts by 13.30 nailed the premium decay part. But what followed from 13.40 to the close should not be taken lightly, this time we had the momentum as well as the distance. A fall of 0.71% ~ 298pts with the 5 out of 6 candles in red. 186 pts of 298 came in last 30mts. What this did was to knock off the support level which we broke out yesterday. So the break creates a negative sentiment now, we will wait and watch before taking any aggressive bets. --- 15mts TF has not turned bearish yet, but today's support break is a red flag. --- 1hr TF - look at the red candles today, we had just 1 green spinning top (irrelevant) at 13.15. The fall came from the important level near 42000 from where we had aggressive selling on 1st Feb.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
1
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 14 FEB 2023My bearish call for yesterday turned out to be wrong - sorry to have disappointed you ! We had a dramatic performance by NSE:BANKNIFTY today even after a higher than expected inflation of 6.52%. Although we had 2 sharp moves, none of the support or resistance was broken - which means we still have no clue on the direction. NSE:BANKNIFTY opened at 41410 made a low at 9.47 just 0.51% ~ 212pts drop. Although this level does not have any major support or resistance -  NSE:BANKNIFTY was not falling. There was a sideways movement till 11.25 after which it started picking up direction. I am not quite sure what gave away suddenly - was it the more than expected profit report from Adani enterprise that helped the bank's jump? There was an intraday rally of 1.13% ~ 465pts from the stable level at 11.30 to 14.35. There was a near vertical move from 13.45 to 14.10 - all green candles. What this did to the option prices was that the CE shorts got covered and fresh PE shorts were written. The surge in options volume shows that. I cannot really say that the 41624 resistance was taken out as the final close was at 41617, still this sudden surge in prices brought about a sentiment change from negative to neutral. --- 15mts chart is still showing sideways ie neutral, today we ran out of time to break the resistance level. So if tomorrow we start gap-up then we might see fresh longs added. 41624 resistance has not given away in the last 5 attempts. --- 1hr TF is still not bullish or neutral, it still looks bearish to me. If the resistance gets taken out - then i too will look out for bullish trades esp because the expiry is coming up in 2 days. --- Almost all banks had a breakout trade today, the swing range from LOD to HOD marked. NSE:HDFCBANK had a swing of 1.1% from LOD to HOD - not that much to comment about, but this bank was staying & took out the swing high of 6th Feb NSE:ICICIBANK had a swing of 1.68% of this a single candle at 13.55 brought in 0.41%. NSE:SBIN was below water today and the surge not only helped it close in green, but pulled bank nifty's gain to 0.9%. There was a swing of 2.58% NSE:AXISBANK had a perfect V shaped chart pattern when yesterday's price action is also considered. Almost a 2% intraday swing & a near vertical trade from 13.15 to 13.55. NSE:KOTAKBANK was flat today NSE:INDUSINDBK dipped into red early in the day & then bounced back to close in green.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram