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Bankniftyoptions

PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 10 FEB 2023Another range bound day today with no resistance or support breaks, straddles would have loved it with the premiums dying 17 to 18% without having to do anything. This week on monday, wednesday & friday - i was unable to find any short selling opportunity - now thats a first!  NSE:BANKNIFTY opened gap down 41452, but if you look at the trading chart - it felt inline. See the 2 upward sloping yellow line, BN was continuing from the momentum it got from 13.25 yesterday. But this did not last that long, we hit the resistance zone at 41629 & had a reversal back to previous close. The rally was only of 0.56% ~ 233 pts from LOD to HOD. Straddlers ie those who would have sold ATM CE & PE would have benefited the most as it was a perfect flat close.  NSE:NIFTY had a negative closing today - the traded range was steady wrt open & close NiftyIT also had a lower close mainly on account of fall on HCLTECH In that respect NSE:BANKNIFTY outperformed both the other indices --- In the 15mts TF, NSE:BANKNIFTY has not made any changes w.r.t the stance yesterday. The fall on 1st Feb is still not taken out, after 4 instances of retouch on 41629 resistance. I may be inclined to go bearish for an ultra short term if BN is unable to take out the resistance on monday also. --- 1hr TF is starting to swing in flavor or bears again because the inability to take out the resistance. Also the chart shows falling prices with some consolidation near the support lines.  --- Among the NSE:BANKNIFTY components in 5mts TF NSE:HDFCBANK had a strange looking last candle, almost a Rs5 drop in price - i do not remember spotting it during market close. It was HDFCbk that was providing immense support to bank nifty today, from 12.10 to 15.20 there was a steady bullish momentum. NSE:ICICIBANK had a volume spike at 12.55 and from that point onwards the volume levels have stayed elevated. The chart promises to be bearish. NSE:SBIN also stayed in positive zone today, almost a 2% rally from LOD to HOD in opening 45mts & a gradual cool off from there. NSE:AXISBANK did have some drama today, symmetrical drop & recoup of prices from HOD to LOD & then back to HOD. If we take into yesterday's price action also - the chart looks bearish. NSE:KOTAKBANK had a flat chart pattern & its back to its multi year SR of 1780 to 1800. NSE:INDUSINDBK bank had an opening fall & the it gained back all it lost from 11.50 to 13.50
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 09 FEB 2023 Expiry Looking at the opening 30 minutes i seriously thought today's price action is really going to be awesome. I was fully loaded with a 41000:40900 debit ratio that would have made a lot of money if NSE:BANKNIFTY crossed the 40900 barrier. And for a moment i seriously thought we will have deeper cuts, but quite unsurprisingly bank nifty stopped falling at 09.45. The open was right at the resistance level of 41629 & the fall was 0.9% ~ 375pts in 30mts. From 09.45 to 13.40 we had a sideways move that failed to create option mispricing. So this entire week we had a low volatility, low premium expiry. Bank nifty started picking up momentum after 13.25, again the same ended just before the resistance zone of 41629. The upmove was 0.78% ~ 324pts.  To make some money today, i had to exit and reenter the same strike price multiple times. I could not afford to short a nearer ATM strike due to the fear of a big move. So i had to time the exit and re-entry properly to catch the small price swings. --- The 15mts TF is again showing sideways momentum, but the downside is clearly getting protected. If NSE:BANKNIFTY is able to take out the nearest resistance we may really have a good upmove. --- 1hr TF is not showing bullishness yet - its kind of tricky to take a trade now. In case of a breakout the momentum is going to be so strong that the jump in premiums will be multi fold.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty For tomorrow. Huge momentum expected ? HUGE FALL!!??😮Analysis for tomorrow will be same as monday but some levels are changed, because of sideways market of 3 three days so, use this levels to trade tomorrow expiry. One thing market may defintely trap you. Summary:- View is bearish for banknifty. ZONES AND LEVELS ARE IN THE CHART MARK IT IN YOUR CHART & IF MKT BREAKS 42000 THEN ONLY GO FOR LONG OTHERWISE AVOID WHICH I TOLD BEFORE Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any particular trading strategy. The views and opinions expressed here are personal. The information contained here has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not necessarily complete, and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. I may have positions in the securities or instruments shared as ideas. Do your own research OR consult a financial advisor for personalized investment advice.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by pn202377
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 08 FEB 2023Today was another day of personal disappointment for me as i could not find a suitable option selling opportunity. NSE:BANKNIFTY opened inline went over the resistance line of 41629 and then fell back to the negative zone. The open to HOD was only a move of 0.73% ~ 304pts. The swing of HOD to LOD was a fall of 0.92% ~ 382pts ie from 10.05 to 10.45. Even though we had 2 swings, first into positive territory & second to the negative - the option premiums did not jump that much. There was very little volatility that could cause the option mispricing - so i was sitting like a guy in the park with nothing to do. While the premiums are low its quite dangerous to short options - because you never know when the premiums will shoot up. Since we had the RBI MPC interest rate decision (0.25% hike in interest rate), i thought atleast that will create some wild swings. So now for 2 consecutive days we have a low volatility market. End of the day i bought a 41000/40900 2:3 debit ratio spread for tomorrow expiry. Well the rationale being to go ahead and short some PE options & use the debit spread as a hedge. --- 15mts TF is showing sideways momentum only. The inability to break the 41629 resistance is now starting to get serious. I still think only a gap up can break it. --- 1hr TF is starting to become a lower high if the resistances are not getting taken out. If it spends more time like this it will give the bears more courage to take fresh short positions & tip the market to the negative territory. So now we have the NSE:NIFTY and NiftyIT sharply outperforming NSE:BANKNIFTY today. We cannot count on the NiftyIT because thats quite a reflection of what happens with NDQ in US. If NDQ falls today then NiftyIT will underperform tomorrow. That is the only index that has some level of correlation with the US markets - all other indices are in an orbit of its own. India being the first market to stay in the bull market throughout the Covid period. --- Among the bank nifty components: NSE:HDFCBANK again had a good correlation with the nifty bank today also. NSE:ICICIBANK had a rising chart pattern with the last 2 candles trying to tell something NSE:SBIN stayed in positive zone, there was a dip below water in 1 candle but the recovery was good. NSE:AXISBANK stayed down today with no signs of recovery NSE:KOTAKBANK has again hit its multi year resistance line and just dropped slightly. NSE:INDUSINDBK ended the day in positive with a nice looking chart pattern showing further bullishness. to view all the charts in today's discussion visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 07 FEB 2023Unlike yesterday we had some price moves today, a typical V pattern that would have given traders something to cheer about. Otherwise a falling volatility would have sucked out the premiums from the weekly options. NSE:BANKNIFTY open was inline at 41513, traded flat till 10.35 after which we had our first move of the day. A 1.08% ~ 448pts fall from 10.40 to 13.05. This was a gradual down move and nothing alarming. Then we had a V shaped recovery from 13.15 to 14.55, a 1.27% ~ 523pts upmove that halted right at the resistance line of 41629 & then cooled off & closed at 41464. I was almost enticed to do the 42000/42100 2:3 ratio spread but when i saw the halt at resistance - i opted out. Seems like the only way NSE:BANKNIFTY can take out the 41629 level is by a gap-up, because on all the recent traded attempts - its just failing. And we all know BN is a master of gap-up & gap-down. The final close was pretty similar with the opening levels and today's price move was almost a mirror image of yesterday's session. --- When we look at the 15mts chart, its showing sideways momentum. So we need a gap up/down opening to change the status quo. If it stands like this we might really have a boring expiry on 9th Feb. --- Today's flat move and the inability to take out the resistance may dent the bullish case from the W pattern as discussed yesterday and 3rd. So we wait and watch for clarity. --- Among the NSE:BANKNIFTY components: NSE:HDFCBANK had a good correlation with the banknifty chart today. A fall of 1.69% in the forenoon session & a recovery to close with 1.17% upside from the LOD NSE:ICICIBANK was trading below water for most of the day today, There was a recovery of 1.02% from the LOD to the flat line by 14.45 but that faded out. NSE:SBIN was staying above the water for most of the time, there was a fall of 1.81% from HOD to LOD but the final close was in green. This is quite good because we had a good QoQ & if SBI isnt falling then its pulling up its socks for an upside momentum. NSE:AXISBANK had a bearish day today, chart pattern continuing with the trend set yesterday. The fall from HOD to LOD was 1.87%, but there was a recovery and it went above water for a brief period before closing in red NSE:KOTAKBANK was outperforming today right from the start. 2 legs of upmoves, first one with a gain of 1.32% then a slight cool off followed by another 1.06% gain. Final close 1.63% high. NSE:INDUSINDBK was also continuing from the trend set yesterday, with steady upmove today.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 06 FEB 2023A kind of boring price action today, except for the opening 30mts we literally had a cool & relaxing day today. NSE:BANKNIFTY opened inline at 41530 made some up downs for 5 consecutive candles showing indecisiveness & lack of direction. But i was still fearful to deploy short straddle or iron fly thats because the premiums in the options were already quite low. India vix was rising but bank nifty had a falling volatility - quite a dangerous situation because if NSE:NIFTY keeps falling further - the algos will ride on that further increasing the volatility. This will spill over to NSE:BANKNIFTY & cause more troubles. So i just sat the day out - did not take any position in F&O. --- Our views for the 15mts TF hasnt changed from 3rd either. Chart is not suggesting up or down moves so far. The resistances and supports if holds good then we might have further flattish trades too. --- 1hr TF view has also not changed from the last session. The double bottom pattern is still intact & it may signal a short upside at least till the 42800 (start of fall level). However if NSE:BANKNIFTY stays below the current price for some time then the double bottom pattern will lose credibility & we can start looking for bearish ideas. --- Among the NSE:BANKNIFTY components we had some drama today, lets analyze NSE:HDFCBANK had a down day today, not serious damage but what may look like an interim double top in 10mts TF with the last top on 01 FEB. The bottom level at 1590 levels are equally strong & we are looking at a triple bottom at this level. NSE:ICICIBANK was trading with a negative bias, 2 instances of pull back at 13.15 & 15.05 helped it reduce the loss. Again we are looking at a strong resistance at 869 levels. NSE:SBIN was reacting to the QoQ results - the reaction was muted. We had a 3.9% intraday swing from HOD to LOD in the opening 20mts from then we had a flattish day. The gap up opening would have helped lot of people to exit their positions from last week. NSE:AXISBANK had a strange opening candle, again a 3.15% swing from LOD to HOD and then a gradual fall to the flattish territory. I am not quite sure how much the 1% loan book exposure to the ADANI group really got priced in NSE:KOTAKBANK fell the first & 2nd candle, the chart might say its swing was much weirder than SBI or AXIS, but it wasnt. Kotak is still at its multiyear SR at 1780 to 1800 levels. NSE:INDUSINDBK was the top outperformer on SENSEX today, ended with a gain of 2.32%. But most importantly its the only main bank that is yet to catch its all time highs after the covid fall. So we have another 600+ pts to go for that !
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 03 FEB 2023NSE:BANKNIFTY opened gap up at 41019 much above the resistance level of 40869, the gap would have been because of the excellent hand out from the US markets yesterday. SP:SPX & NDQ had outperformed with good gains. Our gap up did not sustain though, we fell 1.61% from 09.30 to the support zone 40700, with a LOD of 40609.  From this support zone there was a small bounce to the nearest resistance level ie from 11.35 to 13.25, but what happened after 13.30 was something unexpected. We had a 1.64% rally from the 40867 SR level to form a new HOD at 41539 at 15.10. This rally was partly because of the build up in SBI for its QoQ results which got published after market hours now. I must say those who took long positions in SBI would be feeling lucky as the results are quite good. Yesterday we discussed the possibility of a short covering rally if NSE:BANKNIFTY crosses 41624. Although this level did not breach, the last 2 hour move was quite good enough to pump up premiums for near OTM CEs 42000 CE went up 161%, 43000 CE 90%, 43500 CE 28.8%, 44000 CE 11.9% - the rest of the CEs of 500 multiples did not really outperform. Since the rally came late that the CEs spike werent that exciting. At 14.30 there was a sudden spike but that did not sustain. --- My view for 15mts TF has still not changed, unless the recent peak of 42000 level is not taken out we dont think bullish. And unless 39700 swing low is taken out we dont go bearish. --- 1hr TF shows few more day's price action also in it and it brings the impression of a bearish bias. But interestingly a W style or double bottom kind of formation is visible. As these are news event driven price actions - i am not really sure if technicals will work here. Currently a trade based on support & resistance is the most profitable strategy. --- This week we did not discuss the NSE:BANKNIFTY components, so let me bring the 1D chart and analyze the pattern. The yellow flat line just shows yesterday's last traded value so that its easier for us to identify today's move! NSE:HDFCBANK fell 6.67% after the Hindenburg vs Adani news broke out. Today it regained 3.46% of that with the medium term trend looking bullish NSE:ICICIBANK fell 9.13% but it has regained 8.28% of that by now, but the medium term trend is not looking bullish. We are seeing a gradual decline from the recent peak made on 01 Dec NSE:SBIN was quite heavily impacted, dropping 16.23% , from this level it has regained 9.1% so far. With the good results it may pop up further. NSE:AXISBANK was already falling when this news hit, but it fell only 8% and the recovery of 5.5% already done. The medium term trend is not bullish as we see a consolidation style of pattern right now. NSE:KOTAKBANK again was falling from 18 Nov and is quite near the crucial support/resistance level of 17800. Perhaps kotak is the only bank that fell lesser and recovered more ie 4.41% fall & rise of 5.46% - but this is not making the chart looking bullish though. NSE:INDUSINDBK did take the beating quite hardly. A fall of 18.2% and then a recovery of 11.8% To view the 7 charts in today's report visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram