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PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 06 FEB 2023A kind of boring price action today, except for the opening 30mts we literally had a cool & relaxing day today. NSE:BANKNIFTY opened inline at 41530 made some up downs for 5 consecutive candles showing indecisiveness & lack of direction. But i was still fearful to deploy short straddle or iron fly thats because the premiums in the options were already quite low. India vix was rising but bank nifty had a falling volatility - quite a dangerous situation because if NSE:NIFTY keeps falling further - the algos will ride on that further increasing the volatility. This will spill over to NSE:BANKNIFTY & cause more troubles. So i just sat the day out - did not take any position in F&O. --- Our views for the 15mts TF hasnt changed from 3rd either. Chart is not suggesting up or down moves so far. The resistances and supports if holds good then we might have further flattish trades too. --- 1hr TF view has also not changed from the last session. The double bottom pattern is still intact & it may signal a short upside at least till the 42800 (start of fall level). However if NSE:BANKNIFTY stays below the current price for some time then the double bottom pattern will lose credibility & we can start looking for bearish ideas. --- Among the NSE:BANKNIFTY components we had some drama today, lets analyze NSE:HDFCBANK had a down day today, not serious damage but what may look like an interim double top in 10mts TF with the last top on 01 FEB. The bottom level at 1590 levels are equally strong & we are looking at a triple bottom at this level. NSE:ICICIBANK was trading with a negative bias, 2 instances of pull back at 13.15 & 15.05 helped it reduce the loss. Again we are looking at a strong resistance at 869 levels. NSE:SBIN was reacting to the QoQ results - the reaction was muted. We had a 3.9% intraday swing from HOD to LOD in the opening 20mts from then we had a flattish day. The gap up opening would have helped lot of people to exit their positions from last week. NSE:AXISBANK had a strange opening candle, again a 3.15% swing from LOD to HOD and then a gradual fall to the flattish territory. I am not quite sure how much the 1% loan book exposure to the ADANI group really got priced in NSE:KOTAKBANK fell the first & 2nd candle, the chart might say its swing was much weirder than SBI or AXIS, but it wasnt. Kotak is still at its multiyear SR at 1780 to 1800 levels. NSE:INDUSINDBK was the top outperformer on SENSEX today, ended with a gain of 2.32%. But most importantly its the only main bank that is yet to catch its all time highs after the covid fall. So we have another 600+ pts to go for that !
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 03 FEB 2023NSE:BANKNIFTY opened gap up at 41019 much above the resistance level of 40869, the gap would have been because of the excellent hand out from the US markets yesterday. SP:SPX & NDQ had outperformed with good gains. Our gap up did not sustain though, we fell 1.61% from 09.30 to the support zone 40700, with a LOD of 40609.  From this support zone there was a small bounce to the nearest resistance level ie from 11.35 to 13.25, but what happened after 13.30 was something unexpected. We had a 1.64% rally from the 40867 SR level to form a new HOD at 41539 at 15.10. This rally was partly because of the build up in SBI for its QoQ results which got published after market hours now. I must say those who took long positions in SBI would be feeling lucky as the results are quite good. Yesterday we discussed the possibility of a short covering rally if NSE:BANKNIFTY crosses 41624. Although this level did not breach, the last 2 hour move was quite good enough to pump up premiums for near OTM CEs 42000 CE went up 161%, 43000 CE 90%, 43500 CE 28.8%, 44000 CE 11.9% - the rest of the CEs of 500 multiples did not really outperform. Since the rally came late that the CEs spike werent that exciting. At 14.30 there was a sudden spike but that did not sustain. --- My view for 15mts TF has still not changed, unless the recent peak of 42000 level is not taken out we dont think bullish. And unless 39700 swing low is taken out we dont go bearish. --- 1hr TF shows few more day's price action also in it and it brings the impression of a bearish bias. But interestingly a W style or double bottom kind of formation is visible. As these are news event driven price actions - i am not really sure if technicals will work here. Currently a trade based on support & resistance is the most profitable strategy. --- This week we did not discuss the NSE:BANKNIFTY components, so let me bring the 1D chart and analyze the pattern. The yellow flat line just shows yesterday's last traded value so that its easier for us to identify today's move! NSE:HDFCBANK fell 6.67% after the Hindenburg vs Adani news broke out. Today it regained 3.46% of that with the medium term trend looking bullish NSE:ICICIBANK fell 9.13% but it has regained 8.28% of that by now, but the medium term trend is not looking bullish. We are seeing a gradual decline from the recent peak made on 01 Dec NSE:SBIN was quite heavily impacted, dropping 16.23% , from this level it has regained 9.1% so far. With the good results it may pop up further. NSE:AXISBANK was already falling when this news hit, but it fell only 8% and the recovery of 5.5% already done. The medium term trend is not bullish as we see a consolidation style of pattern right now. NSE:KOTAKBANK again was falling from 18 Nov and is quite near the crucial support/resistance level of 17800. Perhaps kotak is the only bank that fell lesser and recovered more ie 4.41% fall & rise of 5.46% - but this is not making the chart looking bullish though. NSE:INDUSINDBK did take the beating quite hardly. A fall of 18.2% and then a recovery of 11.8% To view the 7 charts in today's report visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 02 FEB 2023Apologies for not able to prepare this report earlier in the day as i had some personal commitment. The day was nothing short of exciting though, well not as much drama as yesterday. Even though bank nifty traded in a tighter range today - the options premium were bloated. Knowing very well its an expiry day too - option sellers did utilize the opportunity to drive the prices. Why else would 35500 PE a strike 4450 pts below the spot trade at a max price of 5.7 rupees? 38000 PE a strike 1950 pts below @ 34.2? No wonder the volumes were pretty high today Almost all the far OTM PE strikes traded not less than 1 crore qty. This must be a new record considering it was not a monthly expiry. The CE strikes were not that volatile today, the day's high well within the acceptable swing standards - volumes were still good though. Now from the price action perspective, NSE:BANKNIFTY opened gap down at 39943 right at the 2nd support level of 39839. This support was held and we had an immediate retracement to 40700 resistance level by 09.40. This opening 35mts swing of 2.29% ~ 911pts was the trading range today. Further the support & resistance levels held quite decently. There was a 1.3% fall from 09.50 to 10.30 but the support level at 40134 held. We had another 1.24% fall again back to this support level by 13.35 & it stayed strong. The price action from 13.40 to close took NSE:BANKNIFTY from the support to the resistance a rally of 1.61% ~ 645pts. Final close was 0.39% up in green. --- The 15mts TF now shows a range bound trade possibility before an event or macro driving the news & direction. If you notice i have consecutive support & resistance levels (see yellow dotted lines), this shows that the area is quite a place where NSE:BANKNIFTY spent some time before. Ideally the direction should be towards bottom if the 39770 support gets taken out, if it does the next support levels are quite far away ! --- 1hr TF shows a tendency for NSE:BANKNIFTY to fall mostly because of the recent negative bias. This quick drop was event related & would have led to lot of unusual shorts entering the system. So unless there are some strong bulls to take out this swing high - the shorts will ensure the prices are pushed down further. However if the bulls are ready to take out the swing high (the NSE:BANKNIFTY bulls are pretty strong as we have seen in the past) then the short covering will come into play. to see the 7 charts & ticker of this analysis visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty daily analysis for 03/02/23.Banknifty on the daily time frame has been testing the 200 ema and taking support from the levels. The market has formed an inside candle and closed near the resistance zone. On the hourly time frame, the market has closed between both the moving averages and consolidated whole day breaking the day high in the last hour. The market has taken nice support from 40140 level and given nice movement of 600 points. On the 15 minute chart, the market has closed between both the moving averages. Support :- 40535, 40140 Resistance :- 40800, 41030 If the market breaks the level of 40800, the market may cross 41k levels. Wait for the price action near the price levels before entering the market.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Mambotrade
Banknifty daily analysis for 02/02/23.Market has given a huge doji candle swing between both the moving averages and closing 150 points lower. Being a volatile market, banknifty made a high of 42000 and after touching the level it break down to the lower level of 39500. In the first half of the session market remained silent and consolidated and there was a break out in the second half. On the hourly time frame, the market tried to touch the 200 ema and took resistance. The market has closed below both the moving averages. Even on the smaller time frame, the market has closed below both the moving averages. Support :- 40140, 39500 Resistance :- 40800, 41580 There is long wick doji and the size of the candle expresses the budget day volatility. Tomorrow being an expiry, it will be wise to look of a consolidation zone and trade the only the break out. Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Mambotrade
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 01 FEB 2023 budget Writing about what happened today is one thing, being alive as a trader after watching each 5mts candle - priceless! After what happened today, i am almost 100% certain that my report will not holistically include all the information there is. Let me still try ! Gap up opening at 41115 above the resistance level 40868, till 12.15 we literally did go nowhere - just a decent range bound trade with a positive bias. The Union budget did commence at 11.00 and its interesting that we did have only a 0.3% move till 12.15. But what did really happen was the massive drop in options premium as the volatility fell. It was a dream come true for option sellers if they closed the trades now & exited. After that the things got really out of control. A 1.84% ~ 770pts rally from 12.20 to 12.55 knocking out 2 more resistance zones via 41629 & 41940. Most of the traders would have prepared for this move - the CE options premium were comparatively higher than the PE counterparts because of this. From this high point of the day, we had a fall of 5.97% ~ 2507pts to the low of the day. I am 100% sure no trader would have planned for this to happen. Even i got it wrong, i had a perfect debit ratio spread of 40000/39900 & i exited it prematurely at 13.55 assuming that the support zone of 40868 will hold. This move of 2500+ pts took out 7 support/resistance zones - the intensity of the fall shot up the options premium back again. India VIX which was almost 10.5% down shot up back to zero levels. Well this move was due to the news flow in #adani group again. This put immense pressure on banking stocks. We also did discuss how the FPO was manipulated, stocks kept in green - see what happened today -   NSE:BANKNIFTY lost more than what it gained yesterday, the sentiment now strongly shifted to the negative side. 15mts chart shows the reversal at 12.15 really put out the spirits of the bulls 1hr chart on the other hand - is now showing the recent pullback from 39421 levels will be tested & broken soon. Tomorrow's expiry day is going to be as eventful as today - we are expecting the US FED interest rate by 00.30 tonight. If they deliver rates of 50 bps or more - US markets will fall for sure. Giving momentum for further fall in Indian markets tomorrow. On the other hand if the FED remains dovish US markets will rally as SPX is already above the descending channel (indicating further breakout). This might bring in some consolation for Indian markets tomorrow. The Fibonacci levels marked - we had an entire swing from 0% to 70% on this scale - really mindblowing ! to view the 6 charts in today's report visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty daily analysis for 01/02/23.Banknifty has formed a doji on the daily time frame and has closed gaining 270 points. The market took support from 40150 levels and from there continued to move up and closed at 40650. On the hourly time frame, the market has crossed and closed above the 20 ema. The market took resistance from 38.2% fibonacci level. The market has formed an inverted head and shoulder pattern on 15 minutes time frame and closed between both the moving averages. Support :- 40500, 40156 Resistance :- 40780, 40955 There can be a volatile market tomorrow as it is Union Budget. Market can give nice move either side, watch for a break out and trade accordingly. Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the markets.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Mambotrade
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 30 JAN 2023Again we had a 4 support & resistance zone in play today, the price action formed is also quite tricky. The most commendable part is the conviction of bulls to rally NSE:BANKNIFTY in the last 90mts and close it in green. In essence who could have really predicted the close in green, just look at where it opened 39856 right near the SR zone of 39839 makes an indecisive first candle and then 3 consecutive green candles full of strength to take out 2 consecutive resistance lines. A 2.81% ~ 1113 pts rally from the opening low to HOD in opening 15mts - this really cooled down the IV as well as options premium. I am so sure that many would have lost the opportunity to sell options due to this 15mts unpredictable move. From the HOD we had a gradual but deep cut, basically as 2 legs. leg1 from 09.35 to 10.55 with a drop of 2.04% ~ 832 pts and then from 12.10 to 13.50 a drop of 1.83% ~ 734 pts. The final 90mts, bank nifty retraced all this back to close in green, so we had a 2.6% ~ 1025pts rally from 13.55 to close. Due to this high volatile moves today - the premiums of many option strikes did swing up & down creating perfect shorting & buying opportunities. When it all ended - the premiums of both the PE as well as CEs had fallen below last session possibly hinting at a flattish trade for tomorrow. If we look at the 15mts chart, see blue line - the price action was continuing from the last session except for the opening candle. The last 6 candles showing attempt to recover - but from the time frame it may show up as start of another leg. The degree of slope changes if we go to the 1hr chart thats because the length of the candles be it green or red are very high - showing an expansion in volatility. To be bullish bank nifty would have to negate the fall and go above the recent swing high. Because the fall has been quite strong, its healthy if BN can spend some time here before rising - otherwise the shorts will push it down further. --- Among the bank nifty components: NSE:HDFCBANK had the perfect chart correlation with bank nifty today, the opening minutes 2.72% rise, gradual fall of 2.62% and the last 90mts rise of 2.23 %all the same. NSE:ICICIBANK also followed a similar trajectory, opening 3.71% up, a fall of 3.46% and then a rise of 3.45% NSE:SBIN was more volatile during the same period, up 3.93%, a fall of 4.83% and then a rise of 2.82%. Its chart is not showing as exiting the bearish pattern yet. NSE:AXISBANK even though had rise & fall just like peers - the chart pattern showed flattishness. Opening rise of 3.97%, fall of 3.96% and then a final rally of 2.97% NSE:KOTAKBANK had a relatively lower swing variation today, up 2.44% opening minutes, down 1.58% in a gradual manner and then a final rally of 1.57%. NSE:INDUSINDBK had a different chart pattern than the above banks, its chart showing immense bearishness - even the final rally could not help it get above water. The fall from HOD to LOD was a huge 5.94%. We have 2 major events this week Union Budget 2023 on Feb 01 US FED interest rate decision on Feb 02 If market has to rally or breakdown we need both the events to be biased on the same sentiment. Either both positive or both negative. To view the 4 charts discussed today, visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty daily analysis for 31/01/23.Banknifty on the daily time frame has given doji. The market has tested the 200 ema and 39500 level is also tested in the second half of the trading session. There was huge volatility in the market and after a gap down the market gave a up side move and from low to high market covered 1100 points touching 40700 levels. On the hourly time frame, banknifty has formed a morning star pattern but due to the upcoming budget positional trades can't not be created in the last hour of the session. After the first 15 minutes candle the market slow and steady traded down and in the second half market broke the 20 ema and closed above it. Support :- 40155, 39500, 39250 Resistance :- 40665, 40950, 41360 The market is volatile and option premiums are high. The Indian Vix is around 17 and if it continues to climb, scalp trades can be initiated as there can be a sudden change in market direction. Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Mambotrade
Banknifty weanalysis for 30/01/23.Banknifty gave a nice sell trades for intraday and swing traders. The market took resistance from 50% fibonnaci levels and fell 5% this week losing 2160 points. The market has closed below the 20 ema on the weekly charts and tested 40200 levels. There was a bearish moving averages cross over on hourly charts and the market remained for selling on the second day. Market cycle has changed as there is a trending market in the first half and consolidation in the second. The market on the 15 minutes charts, has tried to recover but is forming a double top pattern. If the market comes for selling and closed below 40200 levels another 400-500 points movement can be seen. Support :- 40200, 39870, 39250 Resistance :- 40500, 40865 Banknifty fell more due to the Hinderburg report on Adani group and if there is no clear response to the report another fall is expected in Indian market. Wait for the price action near the price levels before entering the market.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Mambotrade