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PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 02 FEB 2023Apologies for not able to prepare this report earlier in the day as i had some personal commitment. The day was nothing short of exciting though, well not as much drama as yesterday. Even though bank nifty traded in a tighter range today - the options premium were bloated. Knowing very well its an expiry day too - option sellers did utilize the opportunity to drive the prices. Why else would 35500 PE a strike 4450 pts below the spot trade at a max price of 5.7 rupees? 38000 PE a strike 1950 pts below @ 34.2? No wonder the volumes were pretty high today Almost all the far OTM PE strikes traded not less than 1 crore qty. This must be a new record considering it was not a monthly expiry. The CE strikes were not that volatile today, the day's high well within the acceptable swing standards - volumes were still good though. Now from the price action perspective, NSE:BANKNIFTY opened gap down at 39943 right at the 2nd support level of 39839. This support was held and we had an immediate retracement to 40700 resistance level by 09.40. This opening 35mts swing of 2.29% ~ 911pts was the trading range today. Further the support & resistance levels held quite decently. There was a 1.3% fall from 09.50 to 10.30 but the support level at 40134 held. We had another 1.24% fall again back to this support level by 13.35 & it stayed strong. The price action from 13.40 to close took NSE:BANKNIFTY from the support to the resistance a rally of 1.61% ~ 645pts. Final close was 0.39% up in green. --- The 15mts TF now shows a range bound trade possibility before an event or macro driving the news & direction. If you notice i have consecutive support & resistance levels (see yellow dotted lines), this shows that the area is quite a place where NSE:BANKNIFTY spent some time before. Ideally the direction should be towards bottom if the 39770 support gets taken out, if it does the next support levels are quite far away ! --- 1hr TF shows a tendency for NSE:BANKNIFTY to fall mostly because of the recent negative bias. This quick drop was event related & would have led to lot of unusual shorts entering the system. So unless there are some strong bulls to take out this swing high - the shorts will ensure the prices are pushed down further. However if the bulls are ready to take out the swing high (the NSE:BANKNIFTY bulls are pretty strong as we have seen in the past) then the short covering will come into play. to see the 7 charts & ticker of this analysis visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty daily analysis for 03/02/23.Banknifty on the daily time frame has been testing the 200 ema and taking support from the levels. The market has formed an inside candle and closed near the resistance zone. On the hourly time frame, the market has closed between both the moving averages and consolidated whole day breaking the day high in the last hour. The market has taken nice support from 40140 level and given nice movement of 600 points. On the 15 minute chart, the market has closed between both the moving averages. Support :- 40535, 40140 Resistance :- 40800, 41030 If the market breaks the level of 40800, the market may cross 41k levels. Wait for the price action near the price levels before entering the market.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
Banknifty daily analysis for 02/02/23.Market has given a huge doji candle swing between both the moving averages and closing 150 points lower. Being a volatile market, banknifty made a high of 42000 and after touching the level it break down to the lower level of 39500. In the first half of the session market remained silent and consolidated and there was a break out in the second half. On the hourly time frame, the market tried to touch the 200 ema and took resistance. The market has closed below both the moving averages. Even on the smaller time frame, the market has closed below both the moving averages. Support :- 40140, 39500 Resistance :- 40800, 41580 There is long wick doji and the size of the candle expresses the budget day volatility. Tomorrow being an expiry, it will be wise to look of a consolidation zone and trade the only the break out. Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 01 FEB 2023 budget Writing about what happened today is one thing, being alive as a trader after watching each 5mts candle - priceless! After what happened today, i am almost 100% certain that my report will not holistically include all the information there is. Let me still try ! Gap up opening at 41115 above the resistance level 40868, till 12.15 we literally did go nowhere - just a decent range bound trade with a positive bias. The Union budget did commence at 11.00 and its interesting that we did have only a 0.3% move till 12.15. But what did really happen was the massive drop in options premium as the volatility fell. It was a dream come true for option sellers if they closed the trades now & exited. After that the things got really out of control. A 1.84% ~ 770pts rally from 12.20 to 12.55 knocking out 2 more resistance zones via 41629 & 41940. Most of the traders would have prepared for this move - the CE options premium were comparatively higher than the PE counterparts because of this. From this high point of the day, we had a fall of 5.97% ~ 2507pts to the low of the day. I am 100% sure no trader would have planned for this to happen. Even i got it wrong, i had a perfect debit ratio spread of 40000/39900 & i exited it prematurely at 13.55 assuming that the support zone of 40868 will hold. This move of 2500+ pts took out 7 support/resistance zones - the intensity of the fall shot up the options premium back again. India VIX which was almost 10.5% down shot up back to zero levels. Well this move was due to the news flow in #adani group again. This put immense pressure on banking stocks. We also did discuss how the FPO was manipulated, stocks kept in green - see what happened today -   NSE:BANKNIFTY lost more than what it gained yesterday, the sentiment now strongly shifted to the negative side. 15mts chart shows the reversal at 12.15 really put out the spirits of the bulls 1hr chart on the other hand - is now showing the recent pullback from 39421 levels will be tested & broken soon. Tomorrow's expiry day is going to be as eventful as today - we are expecting the US FED interest rate by 00.30 tonight. If they deliver rates of 50 bps or more - US markets will fall for sure. Giving momentum for further fall in Indian markets tomorrow. On the other hand if the FED remains dovish US markets will rally as SPX is already above the descending channel (indicating further breakout). This might bring in some consolation for Indian markets tomorrow. The Fibonacci levels marked - we had an entire swing from 0% to 70% on this scale - really mindblowing ! to view the 6 charts in today's report visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty daily analysis for 01/02/23.Banknifty has formed a doji on the daily time frame and has closed gaining 270 points. The market took support from 40150 levels and from there continued to move up and closed at 40650. On the hourly time frame, the market has crossed and closed above the 20 ema. The market took resistance from 38.2% fibonacci level. The market has formed an inverted head and shoulder pattern on 15 minutes time frame and closed between both the moving averages. Support :- 40500, 40156 Resistance :- 40780, 40955 There can be a volatile market tomorrow as it is Union Budget. Market can give nice move either side, watch for a break out and trade accordingly. Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the markets.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 30 JAN 2023Again we had a 4 support & resistance zone in play today, the price action formed is also quite tricky. The most commendable part is the conviction of bulls to rally NSE:BANKNIFTY in the last 90mts and close it in green. In essence who could have really predicted the close in green, just look at where it opened 39856 right near the SR zone of 39839 makes an indecisive first candle and then 3 consecutive green candles full of strength to take out 2 consecutive resistance lines. A 2.81% ~ 1113 pts rally from the opening low to HOD in opening 15mts - this really cooled down the IV as well as options premium. I am so sure that many would have lost the opportunity to sell options due to this 15mts unpredictable move. From the HOD we had a gradual but deep cut, basically as 2 legs. leg1 from 09.35 to 10.55 with a drop of 2.04% ~ 832 pts and then from 12.10 to 13.50 a drop of 1.83% ~ 734 pts. The final 90mts, bank nifty retraced all this back to close in green, so we had a 2.6% ~ 1025pts rally from 13.55 to close. Due to this high volatile moves today - the premiums of many option strikes did swing up & down creating perfect shorting & buying opportunities. When it all ended - the premiums of both the PE as well as CEs had fallen below last session possibly hinting at a flattish trade for tomorrow. If we look at the 15mts chart, see blue line - the price action was continuing from the last session except for the opening candle. The last 6 candles showing attempt to recover - but from the time frame it may show up as start of another leg. The degree of slope changes if we go to the 1hr chart thats because the length of the candles be it green or red are very high - showing an expansion in volatility. To be bullish bank nifty would have to negate the fall and go above the recent swing high. Because the fall has been quite strong, its healthy if BN can spend some time here before rising - otherwise the shorts will push it down further. --- Among the bank nifty components: NSE:HDFCBANK had the perfect chart correlation with bank nifty today, the opening minutes 2.72% rise, gradual fall of 2.62% and the last 90mts rise of 2.23 %all the same. NSE:ICICIBANK also followed a similar trajectory, opening 3.71% up, a fall of 3.46% and then a rise of 3.45% NSE:SBIN was more volatile during the same period, up 3.93%, a fall of 4.83% and then a rise of 2.82%. Its chart is not showing as exiting the bearish pattern yet. NSE:AXISBANK even though had rise & fall just like peers - the chart pattern showed flattishness. Opening rise of 3.97%, fall of 3.96% and then a final rally of 2.97% NSE:KOTAKBANK had a relatively lower swing variation today, up 2.44% opening minutes, down 1.58% in a gradual manner and then a final rally of 1.57%. NSE:INDUSINDBK had a different chart pattern than the above banks, its chart showing immense bearishness - even the final rally could not help it get above water. The fall from HOD to LOD was a huge 5.94%. We have 2 major events this week Union Budget 2023 on Feb 01 US FED interest rate decision on Feb 02 If market has to rally or breakdown we need both the events to be biased on the same sentiment. Either both positive or both negative. To view the 4 charts discussed today, visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty daily analysis for 31/01/23.Banknifty on the daily time frame has given doji. The market has tested the 200 ema and 39500 level is also tested in the second half of the trading session. There was huge volatility in the market and after a gap down the market gave a up side move and from low to high market covered 1100 points touching 40700 levels. On the hourly time frame, banknifty has formed a morning star pattern but due to the upcoming budget positional trades can't not be created in the last hour of the session. After the first 15 minutes candle the market slow and steady traded down and in the second half market broke the 20 ema and closed above it. Support :- 40155, 39500, 39250 Resistance :- 40665, 40950, 41360 The market is volatile and option premiums are high. The Indian Vix is around 17 and if it continues to climb, scalp trades can be initiated as there can be a sudden change in market direction. Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
Banknifty weanalysis for 30/01/23.Banknifty gave a nice sell trades for intraday and swing traders. The market took resistance from 50% fibonnaci levels and fell 5% this week losing 2160 points. The market has closed below the 20 ema on the weekly charts and tested 40200 levels. There was a bearish moving averages cross over on hourly charts and the market remained for selling on the second day. Market cycle has changed as there is a trending market in the first half and consolidation in the second. The market on the 15 minutes charts, has tried to recover but is forming a double top pattern. If the market comes for selling and closed below 40200 levels another 400-500 points movement can be seen. Support :- 40200, 39870, 39250 Resistance :- 40500, 40865 Banknifty fell more due to the Hinderburg report on Adani group and if there is no clear response to the report another fall is expected in Indian market. Wait for the price action near the price levels before entering the market.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 27 JAN 2023There were 4 support & resistance zones in play today, 3 supports broken & 1 held. No pull back rally - just a consolation flat type trading last 3hrs today. Lets analyze it one by one. The accusations against Adani group companies by Hindenburg research caught the lime light today, markets reacting more seriously than on 25th Jan. Many of the Adani group companies were at lower circuit breaker today - insane amount of wealth wiped out. People dont talk when stocks rally 1000%, but if it falls 20% - rumors spread quite fast. Now why are the banks falling? Thats because the vehicle Adani has used to build the empire is loans & credit - bank loans & loans by pledging the equity. So if the equity falls considerably lower - banks will have to issue a margin call. There is every chance that their loans will go above the collateral price making it easy for the group to default & walk away. I am not saying that will happen - but its how the investors think. For the evangelists - its time to add onto more adani stocks as good valuations may be hit over the next month. Disclosure: I dont have interest to buy/sell or trade adani stocks or FnO. But i am intersted to analyze how banks will react - because banking is my domain. NSE:BANKNIFTY opened gap down at 41312 breaking support 1, fell 2.26% ~ 940 points by 09.30 breaking support 2, then 2 green candles and then the 2nd leg of fall of 1.02% ~ 418pts between 09.40 to 10.10 to break support 3. A retracement to previous support level till 10.35 & then the 3rd leg of fall of 1.75% ~ 715pts till 12.35 which came close to the support 4 but did not break it. From 12.35 to close of day there was no more meaningful price action. Support level was tested at 14.10 but it held. Notably there was no retracement in this period - indicating a change in sentiment for the bulls. Since the scale is logarithmic the intensity of the fall is not visible, but we ended the day with a loss of 3.13% ~ 1302pts. Never in the recent history have we had a 3% fall. we did discuss on the possibility of the 2nd leg for the price action that started on Dec14th - that prophecy is playing out now - let me show that to you in the 1hr chart See the light blue line i have drawn, the 1st leg starts at dec 14th to 23rd. Then a lower high formation till 4th Jan. Then a range bound trade till 23rd Jan. And the support break ensuring we will have a new lower low.  Now most of the analysts would have turned bearish - our merit is to find it early & take the trade - even though it turns out wrong, we can still manage. 15mts TF also screaming with bearishness. But note that there are 18 more strong support levels to break if we have to go below the 17th June 2022 levels of 32290 - so relax till then ! to view the 4 charts discussed today visit viswaram . com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty daily analysis for 27/01/23.There was a trending market in the last session giving nice profits in the sell side and banknifty lost more than 1000 points in a single day closing around 41650 levels. The market has closed below its 20 ema filling all the gap created in the recent time. A bearish moving average cross over is there on hourly charts and the RSI indicator is showing oversold levels. The market is taking support from 41600 levels and there can be a retest before another fall to confirm a bear trend. In the first half the market remain in a selling territory and consolidated in the second half which is good for intraday traders. If the market shows some weakness, the market can be shorted for 200-300 points. On 15 minute charts, the first candle closed below both the moving average creating a short entry. Support :- 41580, 41360 Resistance :- 41920, 42260 Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
FASP levels for Bank Nifty 27/01/2023 The FASP for BankNifty is listed for 27-1-2023 . You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities. What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)? It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds. Validity of the levels: 1 Day How to use these levels? The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options. Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by SathishChandrasekaran
BANK NIFTY CHART ANALYSIS // BIGGEST MONTH END EXPIRYBank Nifty form Rectangle Chart Pattern and after creating 42700 Resistance or 41800 Major Support Its go up through creating trendline support and Giving GapUp beyond 42700 Hold 2 Sessions on Upper level with breakking out Trendline….. If Tomorrow which is Month End Expiry HOLD 42700 levels AtLeast 15Candle on upper levels we can se Up Rally or if it BreakDown his Major Resistance of 42700 Levels Down we can See Again 41800Levels Tomorrow….!!!!! UpSide Target 43400 DownSide Target 41800
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by MrRisk_Manager
Banknifty daily analysis for 25/01/23.Banknifty has formed an engulfing candle on closed 90 points lower taking support around 42650 levels. On the hourly time frame, the market took support from 20 ema and closed near previous day low. The market has closed above both the moving averages. The market is in consolidation cycle and option buying opporunities are less. Let the market decide the trend and a trending market can be seen if the market start trading below 42650 levels. The market soaked all the gap up and on 15 minute chart, closed between both the moving averages. Support :- 42650, 42500 Resistance :- 42750, 42980-43000 Option buyer can take bullish trade after the market crosses and sustain above 43k levels. Tomorrow being an expiry, if the market consolidate in the first half, last half market can be trending. Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum