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Bankniftyoptions

Banknifty daily analysis for 29/12/22Banknifty has given a nice move and it taking a halt near the 43k level and 20 DMA. It has formed a gravestone doji after taking a resistance from the levels. Banknifty has given a nice up move but is taken a rejection near 61.8% fibonnaci level. On the hourly time frame, the market has taken a good support from the 200 ema and closed near the level. Though, price is trading above both the moving averages but market is unpredictable. Even on the smaller time frame, bank nifty has respected the 200 ema and has taken support from the level. Support :- 42730, 42590, 42450 Resistance :- 42900 (daily 20 ema), 43100 If the index start trading above the moving averages, the market can give nice up move in the second half. Watch for trending market as the market has traded in a narrow range today. Wait for the price action near the price levels before entering the market.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 27 DEC 2022 After yesterday's rally, today we had a consolidation which can be taken positively. But the real test comes tomorrow as today's stock action in US markets will show its true color (red mostly) on wednesday 28th Dec. This is largely because we had an unexpected 2.3% spike yesterday and major markets were on holiday Quite an unexpected turn of events. On 23rd Dec we thought there could be a slight option for a short covering rally -…banknifty.medium.com And today we had another green day on top of yesterday's rally. Is it sustainable? Lets watch out for US market action later today. Personally i feel the current moves in Indian markets are a little overrated, moves with no change in fundamentals.  BN opened gap up at 42827 today and see the image attached, it was rejected at the resistance level and the drop from 09.25 to 09.45 ensured the 1st level of support is also broken.  For a moment i thought sanity is back, but that wasnt true either. BN stopped falling and from the period 09.50 to 10.50 it even went about the SR level of 42573. The tendency of the market was to fall earlier today, the period 10.55 to 12.55 shows that - small lowering slope. And this changed by 13.45 when the SR level was taken out again. The total rally from 14.35 to close even ensured the resistance level of 42888 is hit. Indian markets has to be credited showcasing immense bull fight. I really dont know how many big bears are left - what was really developing into a bear rally is now becoming a bull market retracement. Since i am & always will be a contrarian, i would like to look out for bearish opportunities on wednesday & thursday. --- Of the bank nifty components: HDFC started gap up and then went into negative territory, only by 14.45 it started moving above water ICICI had gone underwater opening 20mts, but the momentum to the upside was very strong, it was evident in the last 1 hr of trade SBI was holding its ground and then went higher after 13.25. Absence of selling can be considered as a positivity. AXIS also dipped to negative region opening 20mts. but it managed to grind higher, the final 50mts ensured its closing in green. Kotak had a gap up and even though dipped below flat line for a brief period - it held its ground. Trade today can be seen as positive. IndusInd also stood its ground, was not falling below the flat line that much - final close also positive. --- This is how the SPX chart looks on a 1hr TF. The fall below 3945 support has to be seen as negative. Currently its at 3834 SR area with the next support at 3757. If the indian markets has to move up tomorrow, then we need a positive closing for US markets. The chart pattern may not be showing positivity - but we never know whats going to happen next. --- 15mts vs 1hr comparison - bank nifty. Today's trade cements yesteryday's action - but we need to look at tomorrow's data too for confirmation. If we dip tomorrow then its going to be a classic lower high formation.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty daily analysis for 28/12/22Banknifty on the daily time frame has given a dragon fly doji and still showing some confusion. It has closed near the 20 ema but above the 0.618 fib level. The indice is forming a cup and handle formation, on the hourly time frame, giving close above both the moving averages. The market has given a W-pattern but has closed near the resistance level. Support :- 42450, 42230 Resistance :- 42880-900, 43100 The market took a heavy sell off in the morning after touching 42900 levels and closed near the same levels. Wait for the price action near the price level before entering the markets.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 26 DEC 2022--- Bank Nifty Today - 26 DEC 2022 Post Mortem & Analysis Quite an unexpected turn of events. On 23rd Dec we thought there could be a slight option for a short covering rally - read here - but i never thought the short covering will turn into a bear rally breaker. 2.31% intraday rally on a weak market - quite impossible to comprehend. BN started the day at the support level and in the 15mts it hit the resistance. By 09.35 we had a breakout from 1st resistance level. That rally did not stop there. There was no selling into and by 14.30 we had the 2nd resistance of 42573 being taken out. There was again momentum to the 3rd resistance level of 42888 - but the rally lost steam, in fact the closing minutes we saw a fall back to the now support level of 42573. So what do i make out from today's rally - absolutely nothing. Its because the entire global markets are on holiday today. And we had a free hand to play. The mother was not watching and the child had the freedom to do anything. SPX is the mother market and Nifty50 is the child here. The options volume was very low today, remember we said 49500 CE was traded for 49+ lakhs qty on 23rd, it was only traded for 16 lakhs today. Well the ITM options volume was almost double. Also the closing minutes far OTM PE premiums also spiked indicating a put writing. So if the trend continues tomorrow and wednesday then we can say its a valid one, till proven i would like to call this a fake move. --- Of the bank nifty components: There is only anomaly today - the chart of Kotak bank. Every other bank had a similar chart pattern showing a generic trend of long build up or short covering. Whereas Kotak was taking the beating today. Kotak ended in red. Might be it has something to do with the 1800 support/resistance level which is proving to be of great importance last 3 years or so. --- 15mts & 1hr TF - today's move has broke the continuity of the chart. Should we ignore it? We can only do so after monitoring the next 2 days. Is it a downtrend - cannot say when 2 resistance got broken in the same day. Is it an uptrend? - cannot say until the volume matches.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 23 DEC 2022Bank nifty lost over 1.75% today of which ~ 1% was lost in the gap down open itself. The open was at 41951 pretty near to our support line 41940. The first candle showed positivity & i thought maybe bank nifty will hold the level. By the 2nd candle it had fell back to the support level and by 10.00 we had a breach in support. From there it was a gradual fall to the next support level of 41629. At 15.05 we had a test of the 2nd support level and it seemed like holding it from further falling - we cannot be sure as bank nifty was saved by the bell. So the major portion of today's trade was between the SR levels of 41629 & 41940. And today the general market trend was also negative which does add to the reckless selling continuation. Yesterday bank nifty did fall but the NiftyIT index was holding green almost till noon. But today even the IT index came under pressure as overnight S&P500 and Nasdaq100 fall was intense. By now most of you would have predicted the change in bullish stance, most traders are now looking for shorting opportunities - 1 leading indicator is the amount of CE writing (volume speaks) 49500 CE was traded for 49.42 lakhs, 46000 CE for 64 lakhs, 45000 CE for 82 lakhs, 44000 CE for 1.46 crore, 43000 CE for 3.3 crore. Just multiply these with the average trade price to know the total traded value in rupees. The good thing is that majority of the participant is expecting the markets to fall further over the next 4 days. The bad thing is that - if there is a reversal or a small pull back that goes above the previous session high, the short-covering rally will over inflate the option premiums. So this calls for an exciting week and monthly expiry - as its festival cheer the trading volumes will go down & the volatility is expected to spike as price spreads will increase. --- Of the bank nifty components: HDFCbk had a gap down opening and the day was traded with a small rise, but there was no recovery or attempt to close the gap. ICICI opened gap down but there was a recovery to flat line and by 11.05 the selling resumed SBIN was in a perfect bearish pattern, gap down opening and selling into that. AXIS also had a recovery to flat line opening minutes and then the selling for th rest of the day Kotak was putting up a fight just like yesterday, it was holding green till 14.05 but the last 30 mts ensured it too is closing red. IndusInd had 30mts of green, hit the flat line and then selling intensified. --- 15mts & 1hr are confirming the downtrend, both are breaking support levels and no recovery rally on a closing basis --- 1D TF shows 3 continuous red candles, and the length of the candle ie drop in the price is also quite strong. We are now at a level that was peaked at 15th Sep from where we had a massive dip till 37420 levels. Also we have now retraced the prices till 07th Nov. For the selling to intensify the current level has to be broken otherwise it will just appear as a higher low in an otherwise up trending market. And for the bearish case to sustain the current swing should close below the 37420 levels and create a lower low pattern. --- 1W TF is showing just a big red candle - there is no question of bearishness on the weekly scale, its just too early to say that. Once the moving average (50 & 26 EMA in my case) cross over, only then we need to go for a real bear run. The nearest date that happened was 16th March 2020. On 11th Jul 2022 we had a hit between these 2 EMA but they did not cross.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 22 DEC 2022Bank nifty opened today 42864 just below the resistance level of 42888 and the intention to go lower was very clear. By the 3rd candle the support level of 42574 was tested and by 09.35 we had a first break down. The candle at 09.45 was pretty strong green and may have deceived many like me to believe the support level is intact. But this was just a fake move and by 10.10 we had clear indications of downtrend. Although the intensity of downward move was not strong, the breakdown of 3 support levels over last 2 sessions is now looking pretty promising. Today bank nifty fell only 0.49% on a close-to-close basis.  There was a recovery from 12.55 to 14.20, but this was rejected at resistance level. We literally ran out of time or else bank nifty would have fell much more. May be the trades on 23rd Dec will look exciting. From an expiry stand point we had a fall of more than 1698pts ~ 3.85% from 15th Dec to 22nd - so most of the traders who planned for direction-less option strategies would have taken the beat. Had a personal emergency so could not prepare & publish this report earlier. --- Of the bank nifty components Kotak bank was the lone wolf fighting for the green today, rest 5 banks were in red today. The opening candle was deep red for ICICI, SBIN, AXIS. HDFC Bk managed to do a doji and Kotak did a green.  HDFCBk, ICICI and SBIN managed to climb back to green by 14.15 but got sold into. AXIS, IndusInd never recovered or tried to climb back today. --- 15mts and 1hr are looking bearish now. Reinforced with the break in support to aid our bias.  Is this a trend or just an unwinding due to year end profit bookings as discussed on 2nd dec ?
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty daily analysis for 23/12/22.Banknifty on the daily time frame has starting closing below 20 ema and closed 200 points lower. There is a bearish moving average crossover on hourly time frame and took support around 42200. Global market showed some strenght but Indian markets were on the other side. On 15 minute time frame, the market tried to cross the 20 ema but couldn't sustain above it. Support :- 42220, 41950 Resistance :- 43630, 42950 The market has given a close below 23.6% fibonnaci levels and can come to test the next fibonnaci level of 38.2% i.e.41600. Wait for the price action near the level before entering the trade.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 21 DEC 2022Banknifty made some deep moves today engaging 3 of its support/resistance areas. Lets analyze it one by one Totally unexpected gap up open 43525 on weak global cues and then 3 up candles. From there a test of 1st support 43247 at 12.10 - a fail. Further down move and 2nd support of 42884 at 13.50 - also a fail.  Then we had the 3rd support 42570 test at 13.55 - a pass. The moves from 14.00 to close had again a retest of 42884 resistance level - a fail and then the closing near the bottom of the day just above the support level. Breaking 2 support lines will usually change my bias to bearish side. But i would need to know why it broke today and going by the deep cuts i assume there should be some macro or geo-political news. Because last time i checked the bank nifty components almost all of them were trading with the same downslope - this agreement comes only if there is a news element. Today's move has driven the options premium through the roof. Some PE premiums went up more than 100%.  41500 PE which is 1100pts away from the spot went up from 9.49 to 106.9 in 8mts. a surge of 1032.47%. What was the reason for this - need to find out. Was this premium justified - absolutely not. Final close for the day was at 14.1 (down 86.9% from the HOD) The volume of the CE options - again immensely higher. 49000 CE was traded for 74.22 lakhs a strike thats 6400pts 15% away with 1 DTE --- Of the bank nifty components: Almost all the banks had a similar slope of fall. Since there is alignment today i am not discussing the patterns for each banks in specific. If all of them are moving same way - it has to do with macro or event in specific. Some possible reasons could be - RBI intervention - change in rates, SLR or liquidity, change in NPA calculation metrics. Govt intervention - loan write off, issue of new loans w/o collateral, lack of funding, liquidity issues. Govt. fiscal deficit. Lock down fears. GDP calculation mismatch. Corruption etc. If its not any of these - then its the time to start thinking about shorting bank nifty index. After all the run up from 32500 to 43000 was so crazy. --- Both 15mts and 1hr TF is showing bullish reversal patterns - but i am not convinced yet. The fall is not technical, it could be fundamental. If it was a technical move then we need follow throughs on 22nd and 23rd. If we do - then its going to be a deadly fall next week.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
FASP Levels for BankNifty 22/12/22The FASP for Bank Nifty is listed for 20-12-2022. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities. What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)? It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement, Fibonacci Extension, Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds. Validity of the levels: Only valid for the intraday mentioned above. How to use these levels? The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options. Color Coding: Green is regular support, Purple is either strong support or resistance and blue is regular resistance. Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by SathishChandrasekaran
Banknifty daily analysis for 22/12/22Banknifty on the daily time frame has given a bearish engulfing candle and closed 740 points lower breaking the 20 ema. The market has finally shown some momentum after a long time and the selling was there from the opening itself. On the hourly time frame, the market broke the 200 ema, gave a retest and closed below both the moving averages. The global market are being hit by the recession and Indian markets are still showing some strength. The market can come for selling tomorrow as well as. Check the US market as Indian market will follow its trend. Support :- 42560, 42220 Resistance :- 42950, 43290 The market has given a nice movement and can remain silent after the huge fall. Watch for the option premium as tomorrow is weekly expiry. Wait for the price action near the price level before entering the markets.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
Banknifty big fall expected Hi guys, As I analyzed before and interpreted that markets are going to make its ATH and they did. Now, I feel that market is in kind of exhaustion mode and it should come for a pullback or retest the breakout of resistance marked on the chart. It should fall 1300-1600 points from this area. Fall can start from December end or January start. There is nothing to worry about for intraday traders. But i suggest do not make long position in swing and positional trading.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by PriyanshuS
2
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 20 DEC 2022We had a totally opposite day from yesterday in terms of volatility. First a mega swing downwards and then a beautiful recovery to close at HOD Bank nifty opened gap down at 43152 much lower than the support region at 43247. The first candle itself it scaled back to this SR region. And in the 2nd candle it formed an interim top before falling quite heavily There was a fall of 393pts ~ 0.91% between 09.20 to 11.45 mainly on the back of bad global news, related to USDJPY currency pair fall. This fall resulted in the india vix going up more than 9% - but the impact was mostly felt in bank nifty far otm options wherein the premiums spiked almost 150%. It was quite a good day to sell options because what followed from 11.50 to close was a massive recovery. stage 1 was more like pull back 11.50 to 13.00 - after which i thought bank nifty will go deeper down. Assuming what was getting formed was a lower high. Do not really know what the bulls are eating these days as the strength in the uptrend is too strong. Instead of going down, bank nifty crossed the resistance line and closed at the highest point of day much near the prev. close. making sure that a day like today went un noticed in the higher TFs. --- Of the bank nifty components: HDFC bk was the biggest player that stayed in deep red today. The open was quite scary, but the first candle covered so much ground.  ICICI open was not that gap down but it went down till 11.35, from there the rally was really strong, took out the flat line by 14.55 and final close at 0.36% higher SBI also went down till 13.55 and the last 90 mts ensured the final close is at flat line. AXIS bank was continuing from the near term trend, had gone down till 11.35 but after that it started building upside momentum - final close at 0.38% higher Kotak also stayed in red with the moves be it green or red covering so much ground. Gap down opening but the opening minutes it covered the gap but then started falling. From 13.55 to close there was upside momentum. IndusInd seemed to go with the previous day's trend. But the action from 14.15 to close was strong and against the trend. --- The reversal in the afternoon session is visible very clearly in the 15mts and also the 1hr TF. Had today's closing been below the SR level (yellow dotted) line we could have gone short, but now the signals arent clear. The final hour move could also be a positioning either due to the Finnifty expiry today or a institutional desk purchase - because the green candle looks quite out of the place.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty daily analysis for 21/12/22Banknifty on the daily time frame has tested the 20 ema and hasn't closed below it. There is a dragon fly doji on daily time frame and 55 points lower. On the hourly time frame, the market tested 43000 level and in the closing hour of the session gave a nice bullish candle closing above both the moving averages. The market, on the 15 minute time frame, has closed near the resistance zone and 200 ema. If the banking index breaks out of 43440 levels, intraday bullish side trades can be taken. Support :- 43160, 42950 Resistance :- 43440, 43750 Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 19 DEC 2022The inability of BankNifty bears to take out the support 43253 should be viewed as a good sign. We did discuss about this in the last article - read here Bank Nifty Today - 16 DEC 2022 Post Mortem & Weekly Analysis + US Markets Comparison Remember yesterday's discussion around the 43255 support region, thats exactly where bank nifty opened today - 43261.banknifty.medium.com Today's price action was nothing special, a small range bound trade today. Opened at 43346 and then rallied down, the first candle itself closed right at the support line. The next 8 candles traded below this SR line, but BN took this out by 10.00. The positive surge faded out by 11.40 where it got rejected from the top of lower high made last session. The fall was only till 13.10 where it touched the support area again. The support area rejected the downfall and the same went to the HOD. What today did was to cool off the far OTM premiums because of the small range of trade today. Nifty50 +0.83% outperformed banknifty 0.45%, whereas NiftyIT was in red -0.51%. India VIX cooled off another 3.68% to end at 13.5525. --- Bank nifty components had some contradicting chart patterns HDFC Bk opened high but the first candle was deep red, it went underwater and then picked up momentum by 09.55 for a small positive rally.  ICICI also had an opening red candle but went above water much faster made HOD at 11.35 and then slipped back into red. From 13.15 a small rally helped it close in green SBIN had a near perfect flat pattern today. It really did not go anywhere. HOD was at 14.15 and then it seemed like it was dropping to negative territory - but the final close was green. AXIS outperformed, had a good bullish pattern with a healthy pause from 11.15 to 13.05. Now its at the swing high levels of the previous session(s) Kotak opened strongly and then had almost a perfect flat trade till 14.45. The last 45 mts there was a surge which helped it close with gains of 0.96%. IndusInd was continuing the falling pattern from the previous session. LOD was at 12.55 and then it had a minor recovery till close. The pattern looks bearish. --- 15mts TF shows the minor pause BN is taking now 1hr TF is yet to confirm the direction - it can be viewed as a resting zone for a breakout in either direction.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram