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PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 19 DEC 2022The inability of BankNifty bears to take out the support 43253 should be viewed as a good sign. We did discuss about this in the last article - read here Bank Nifty Today - 16 DEC 2022 Post Mortem & Weekly Analysis + US Markets Comparison Remember yesterday's discussion around the 43255 support region, thats exactly where bank nifty opened today - 43261.banknifty.medium.com Today's price action was nothing special, a small range bound trade today. Opened at 43346 and then rallied down, the first candle itself closed right at the support line. The next 8 candles traded below this SR line, but BN took this out by 10.00. The positive surge faded out by 11.40 where it got rejected from the top of lower high made last session. The fall was only till 13.10 where it touched the support area again. The support area rejected the downfall and the same went to the HOD. What today did was to cool off the far OTM premiums because of the small range of trade today. Nifty50 +0.83% outperformed banknifty 0.45%, whereas NiftyIT was in red -0.51%. India VIX cooled off another 3.68% to end at 13.5525. --- Bank nifty components had some contradicting chart patterns HDFC Bk opened high but the first candle was deep red, it went underwater and then picked up momentum by 09.55 for a small positive rally.  ICICI also had an opening red candle but went above water much faster made HOD at 11.35 and then slipped back into red. From 13.15 a small rally helped it close in green SBIN had a near perfect flat pattern today. It really did not go anywhere. HOD was at 14.15 and then it seemed like it was dropping to negative territory - but the final close was green. AXIS outperformed, had a good bullish pattern with a healthy pause from 11.15 to 13.05. Now its at the swing high levels of the previous session(s) Kotak opened strongly and then had almost a perfect flat trade till 14.45. The last 45 mts there was a surge which helped it close with gains of 0.96%. IndusInd was continuing the falling pattern from the previous session. LOD was at 12.55 and then it had a minor recovery till close. The pattern looks bearish. --- 15mts TF shows the minor pause BN is taking now 1hr TF is yet to confirm the direction - it can be viewed as a resting zone for a breakout in either direction.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty daily analysis for 20/12/22Banknifty on the daily time frame has given a dragon fly doji and on the smaller time frame there is a cup and handle pattern. The market has closed near the resistance zone and 20 ema on hourly time frame. Banknifty has tested the 43440 levels many times and if the market start trading above this level, it can test recent highs. On 15 minute time frame, the market formed cup and handle pattern formation. Support :- 42120, 42950 Resistance :- 43440, 43760 The market is showing some bullish movement. Let market cross above 43450 levels. Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the markets.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
Banknifty daily analysis for 19/12/22Banknifty on the weekly time frame has given a gravestone doji and closed below 43500 levels. The markets has been in a bull move and this can be a retracement before another bull leg. On the daily time frame, the marekt has tested its 20 ema and closed above it. As per the Fibonnaci retracement levels, Banknifty can test 41500 level i.e. 38.6% levels. The market, on hourly time frame, has closed between both the moving averages and can test 200 ema. Support :- 43000, 42610 Resistance :- 43390, 43750 The market has given a confusion candle on daily and weekly time frame. Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the markets.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 16 DEC 2022Remember yesterday's discussion around the 43255 support region, thats exactly where bank nifty opened today - 43261. Had a real eventful expiry today, with almost a 500+ pts fall from 14.20 to close. Yesterday we discussed about a roof…banknifty.medium.com The 1st candle took support and closed the gap, the 2nd and 4th candle also closed in green taking bank nifty to green. US market - SPX ended yesterday with cuts of 2.49%, so it was quite sure bank nifty will not be able to sustain in green that long. The first leg of downfall came from 09.35 to 10.50 where BN lost 1.17% approx 509pts. I personally felt we will fall further, atleast another 250 to 300pts. But here is where our market resilience came into being.  BN traded higher from 12.05 to 12.50 to make a retracement high of 43443 - this is 62% retracement of the HOD 43598. From this level BN traded lower ie from 12.55 to 14.00 - but the inability to break the support decisively is strongly noted. There was one green candle at 14.05 that seemed like is breaking the bearish pattern - but it resulted in further shorting and BN came to 43103 by 14.55. Also note that BN did not make a lower low after the morning fall - which needs to be taken in positively. Also the final fall is only 0.64% comparing to what the US markets fell yesterday, Asian markets today and how the European markets are falling now. --- Of the bank nifty components: HDFC bk was continuing yesterday's chart pattern till 10.55 after which it reversed direction and closed the day with gains ICICI bank helped bank nifty go green in the opening 20mts, but from there it had a flattish pattern with some minor downward slope. 13.35 it fell underwater but the last 30mts there was some recovery. SBI was perfectly continuing yesterday's chart, made a pause at 10.25 and then the 2nd leg of fall at 12.55 to close. AXIS also helped BN with the opening minute gains when there was a big jump in prices. But this was quickly given up - hit an intraday low at 11.55 and then recovered from there & ended the day flattish Kotak was also following yesterday's price action. There was an attempt to go above water at 12.35 but it was sold into. Final closing was in red. Indus Ind also was continuing the chat pattern from yesterday. --- SPX opened yesterday right at the support level and then broke it and traded lower. There was no attempt to fill the gap or even break the resistance. 4 hourly candles in red showing strong pessimism, then a green doji and then a green recovery candle at 14.30. The closing candle was also in red.  The final close of the day was in midway from the nearest support - 3813 and nearest resistance 3945 If the sentiment stays as it is - we may be able to see SPX breaking down from this range. Even though SPX has fallen so much in percentage terms, our indices bank nifty and nifty50 is yet to react. NiftyIT is continuing to take the beating meanwhile. Also our VIX is still in 14 range comparing to 24 levels in US. --- We discussed about the 15mts and 1hr TF yesterday. The support level of 43255 has to be broken decisively to go short. The chart pattern below may show a close below that level - but its again too early because bank nifty wasnt as bearish as shown on chart. 1D vs 1W TF not showing any bearish trend yet.  Lets zoom in the 1D TF - on 14th i tried mentioning about an evening star pattern forming  Its become business as usual for bank nifty to take out the all time highs - new ATH is now 44151. Today bank nifty…banknifty.medium.com Well, it makes sense now as the candle of 15th was red and today's was a doji. Still too early but we can start wearing the bearish socks now !!!
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 15 DEC 2022 ExpiryHad a real eventful expiry today, with almost a 500+ pts fall from 14.20 to close. Yesterday we discussed about a roof like pattern formed intraday - read here. And today's price move was in continuation of that trend. Yesterday the handover from US markets were not that positive - but even in bad times our markets has outperformed the global peers. So most of the traders would not have anticipated or planned for the deep cut today. Technically bank nifty only gave away 1.32% today, off which 1.15% coming in the last 1 hour. Till then bank nifty was outperforming the Nifty50 and NiftyIT by a great deal. The reason for the fall? Most of it has to be because of the hawkish comments from US FED chair Powell yesterday. The interest rate hike was 50bps and the market had taken that quite well - its his speech that the markets did not like. As i write this, SPX has opened lower and is trading with a cut of 1.52%, just below the resistance line of 3945. The next support is at 3813 - quite some distance to go if the fall is to continue. Coming back to our markets, bank nifty opened at 43940 a gap down but not that deep, and then recovered and was trading positively. The first leg of the fall came at 11.15 till 12.30 - a fall of only 0.5%. And then BN was trading in a range till 14.15 after which the brutal fall of 1.15% came in. Today's fall has no real impact on the bank nifty's hourly or daily chart because of the huge run up it had in the previous sessions. But if the supports are getting taken out - then we will look at taking bearish bets. Much of today's move would have come out of long unwinding too, because of expiry and also because 44000 to 43800 level was breached and it would have triggered a small panic. --- Of the bank nifty components -  HDFC Bk started higher, made an intraday top at 09.55 and then started falling, the 2nd leg of fall 14.15 to close was pretty brutal. ICICI had started the day negatively and never went above water today - again a noticeable fall from 14.15 to close SBI had a very strong opening candle and then it started falling from there. The first leg of fall was much brutal than its 2nd leg much contrary to the pattern of HDFC and ICICI Axis was in fact in green at 14.10, but the selling momentum created a strong cut of 12pts in the last 75mts Kotak had a big wick'd red opening candle. The first leg of fall till 11.25. The 2nd leg from 14.25 to close. The 10mts candle formed at 15.15 itself took out 0.5% IndusInd was continuing from yesterday's trend, made a HOD at 09.45 and then an uniform fall till close.  The last 60 to 75 minutes of today's trade saw huge unwinding in many major banks. Again this could be profit bookings or a positional trade due to expiry today. --- Today's selling is clearly visible on the 15mts TF, even though 1hr shows it - it may not mean anything until 43255 support is taken out.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 14 DEC 2022 Its become business as usual for bank nifty to take out the all time highs - new ATH is now 44151. Today bank nifty opened gap up at 44078 mainly because yesterday's handover from US markets were quite good. US CPI (Inflation) came 20bps below their estimate and that triggered an immediate surge on SPX by 2.71% - the final closing was only 0.73% higher and the earlier gains were all sold into. We opened strong and the first candle was a big red one, then we had a 3rd & 4th candle ensuring bank nifty is back to where it opened. There was a brief gap closing from 09.50 to 10.05 - but it took support at yesterday's swing high. Then there was a steady up move from 10.10 to 12.15 setting the new ATH. And the period from 12.20 to close saw a similar slope but to the negative side. Looks like a roof ! Now this is at a gap up - so if the next few days are getting spent at a lower levels, it will resemble an evening star pattern on the daily TF Today's move in US indices will be the actual direction setters. Inflation coming down doesnt mean any thing when looked at in isolation. If the FED continues to remove the liquidity then the growth stocks will not break out. The 15mts TF of bank nifty shows how easily the upmove was constructed once the resistance band of 43255 was broken.  --- Of the bank nifty components HDFC Bk had a huge jump from 10.15 to 11.05 and then the remainder of the day was a flattish trade ICICI opened gap up and then fell consistently with no pull back or attempt to go back to flat line. A fall which doesnt look like a positional trade but similar to some news or event that may come up. SBI had a good green shoot at 09.25 and then the rest of the day it built from that gains. The pattern was bullish. AXIS had a positive start and went strong till 12.15 after which it fell underwater. From 14.45 there was a minor attempt to retrace to the flat line. Kotak had one strong red candle at 09.45 still showing the overhang of the negative bias, but it took support at the flat line and the final closing was steadily in green. IndusInd continued from yesterday's chart pattern and had a good positive run. --- The 1hr TF of bank nifty looks absolutely stable and strong, the perfect slope of almost 45 degree. To have any possibility of trend reversal we need to watch out for the support getting taken out along with the EMA cross over.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 13 DEC 2022A gap up opening with a bullish 5mts candle to take out the all time high. And then a steady rally till 12.10 setting a fresh new high of 43983. Bank nifty had good bull momentum to take out the swing high of 9th Dec. There was a small profit taking from 12.15 to 14.40 but this failed to take out the high of the opening candle - again showing strong long only momentum. Also the bias has now shifted to long only as the resistance band is also taken out. Usually all the analysts will give bullish calls on bank nifty - thats because almost all the technical indicators shows buy signal - see the investing technical indicators shown below for the 5mts, 1hr and 1D time frames. But i personally remain cautious at ATH and ATLs because there could be a minor contrarian move just to check if there are weak hands. Also its not advised to buy at all time highs and then expect a great return from that point onwards. 5mts TF1hr TF1D TF --- Of the bank nifty components: HDFC Bk had a gap up and then fell from that point gradually. The last 10mts candle had pretty deep cut. ICICI bank went up continuing from the trend yesterday, hit HOD at 12.05 and then fell underwater. The final 35mts it gained back to end positively. SBI had a gap up opening but the chart pattern shows continuity and this gap is not easily noticeable. Final close was also positive AXIS had a surge opening 30mts and then traded in the same range till 12.05. A small pull back but the final close was in positive territory. Kotak was the only bank to have a gap down opening, trade underwater till 11.35 and then a minor upmove to end flattish. IndusInd continued moving upwards, the last 30mts surge was accompanied by good volumes --- 15mts and 1hr TF both looks bullish - but i personally will not get into a long trade now. would prefer to wait out as even a FOMO moment will not distract me --- There are 2 view points if the US CPI comes in lower than expected.  The US market will rally, ensuring that the emerging markets like India will follow suit and rally The US market will rally and the FIIs would love to go back to their home market. They may prefer to exit Indian markets as they have given a good return for the year so far ! What the FED does with the interest rate & liquidity removal are the actual drivers.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty Levels for Trading in Future & Option Day Trading NiftyBank Low Capital Trading Strategy December Support Zones For Banknifty Intraday Trading First Support Zone For Banknifty – 43807 - 43820 Second Support Zone For Banknifty – 43665 - 43680 Third Support Zone For Banknifty – 43496 - 43516 Resistance Zones For Banknifty Intraday Trading First Resistance Zone For Banknifty – 43986 - 43970 - New All Time High Importent Signal for Banknifty Max Pain As per Option Chain Analysis – 43800 PCR ratio as per Option Chain Analysis – 1.51 ( Bullish / Overbought ) Major Support as Per Banknifty Open Interest Analysis – 43500 Major Resistance as Per Banknifty Open Interest Analysis – 44000
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by manojshinde27
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 12 DEC 2022Quite a different trading day today, the opening set up was looking as bearish but bank nifty recovered all the losses but didnt have enough power to rally up S&P500 index dropped 0.73% on friday - setting a negative tone for the Indian markets. Going by the same sentiment bank nifty opened gap down at 43455, made a long legged doji opening candle. The 2nd candle was red which would have prompted more traders to go on the short side. The manner in which bank nifty took support at the swing low of last session is like a fairy tale. The 1 hr of trade today and the last hour of trade friday was relatively same (see yellow marked regions). This may mean that the global weak sentiment had no effect on bank nifty.  The longs were still intact thats why the bank nifty recovered the gap down so quickly. But the news isnt that positive either. From 10.10 to close of day today - BN absolutely went nowhere.  There was an attempt to go lower from 13.15 to 13.30 - but this got quickly recovered again.  Nifty50 also remained flat, but NiftyIT saw the selling continuing and closed at 0.40% lower. Why would Indian stocks not respect the global macro trend is quite intriguing.  I personally felt not comfortable to take the trades after the opening 1 hour - mainly because of my bias from the global cues. I couldnt go short because the chart pattern was not confirming the trend and I couldnt go long as the macros were not in favor. So i just let the day pass by after the opening trades. --- Of the bank nifty components: HDFC bk chart pattern resembled the niftybank quite closely. The 1st hour of trade gave it strong gains and the remaining time was spent in consolidation ICICI started dropping and was trading underwater till the last 35mts rally. The volume shows quite a surge in the last 30mts. SBI started lower, went above the flat line and then gradually fell, but today's low has not taken yesterday's swing low. Axis trend was supposed to be continuing (falling) but there were 3 strong green candles that took it above water. Kotak had an island day, gap down opening, a failed attempt to close the gap and the final close near the day's open. IndusInd had some strong greenish moves at 10.35 and then it took out the swing high of last session. Final close was almost mid way between the HOD and flat line. --- 15mts chart shows the inability to take out the previous swing high, until which we cannot be outright bullish. We cannot be bearish too unless the nearest support is taken out 1hr doesnt show any clear direction yet - may be looked at as a consolidation period.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty daily analysis for 13/12/22.Banknifty on the daily time frame has formed an inside candle and closed only 75 point above. On the hourly time frame, the market has tested the 20 ema and consolidated in a flag and pole pattern forming lower wicks. The index opened lower but regained in the first hour and consolidated whole day in a narrow range of about 100 points. The market, on 15 minute time frame, has traded around 20 ema and took resistance near 43750 levels Support :- 43600, 4335-370 Resistance :- 43750, 43820 The market is halting on the higher levels and new high can be possibility in this December. Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the markets.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
Banknifty daily analysis for 12/12/22Banknifty has finally traded near 44k level and has given another green candle on the weekly time frame. On the hourly time frame, the market has formed a dragon fly doji and closed above 43600 level. The market has tested the 20 ema, on hourly time frame, and gave a nice upmove. The market after a gap up and came for selling and tested the support zone near 43400 level. Support :-43500, 43335-43370 Resistance :- 43675, 43820 The market is forming new highs and is taking halt on the higher levels. Banknifty has gained 1.2% on the weekly time frame and nifty has closed 1% lower. Wait for the price action near the level before entering the level.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TheMamboMomentum
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 09 DEC 2022Today's price moves are quite interesting - Nifty50 ends the day with a loss of -0.61%, NiftyIT flash crashes at -3.14% but our hero Banknifty ends the day green +36.6pts. Such is the brute strength of the Banknifty bulls - really intense. BN opens gap up at 43765 new ATH and then hits intraday high of 43853 by 10.05. A consolidation move from 10.10 to 12.00. Let me pull up the 3 charts of BankNifty, Nifty50 and NiftyIT to analyze today's move (see the yellow markers indicating the open & close of today) The left most chart is bank nifty, the one in centre is Nifty and the right end chart is NiftyIT.  The major fall in Nifty50 and NiftyIT came from open to 12.50 see the chart below. BankNifty in the same period lost 0.55%, Nifty50 lost 1.09% and NiftyIT lost 3.40%. --- This will give a real solid idea on the strength shown by bank nifty today. From 12.05 to 12.50 BN made a strong dip, and then by 14.35 it had lost almost 400 pts (0.93%). In the same interval - Nifty50 lost 0.76% and NiftyIt lost 0.72% - indicating that the bulk of the fall of Nifty50 and NiftyIT came outside of the window wherein Banknifty tanked. There is a serious decoupling visible here eventhough BankNifty is a component of Nifty50. --- The closing hour was almost similar with BN climbing back 0.6%, Nifty50 0.44% and NiftyIT 0.45%. (see chart below).  If we compare these side by side and minute by minute we can notice a dichotomy in the bank nifty index vs the other 2. I am not sure how long this will continue - but lets enjoy till it lasts. Today's fall was news driven, wherein one the IT major forecasted not so bright quarter earnings. Technically it impacts the IT sector - but if its a broad based recession warning, the biggest loser is going to be NiftyBank. Thats because if people get laid off, companies run out of business - their loan repayments (debt repayments) will suffer putting on enormous pressure on banks. The NPAs will rise and many loan books will have to be written off. Banks will be the last to fall and the last to recover - because its business is dependent on other business's success. One easy way to find if a bank is not doing well is to look at its deposit growth vs credit (loan) growth. If the deposits are not growing - its a bad sign. If the credit is growing above average - that too is a bad sign showing people are using debt to finance their expenses. Factually i dont really bother if the indices are going up, down or flat - because i am not having an equity exposure as of now. My priority is to time the ups and down on a daily/hourly level so that it can benefit my trading. --- Of the banknifty components: HDFCBk started in green and ended much more in green. The trend continuation from yesterday played out well ICICI started flat and ended in red, but the last hour recovery ensured the losses are less SBI started in green, went underwater and the last 45mts recovery was intense. closed near HOD Axis was taking a breather following the previous day(s) rally. Final close was a bit in red Kotak again had a big opening candle right from the 7th Dec close to the 8th Dec close. The chart pattern was bearish. IndusInd went above the top formed on 6th Dec showing strength, and a brief pull back to the flat line. And a small recovery to close the day. --- 15mts Vs 1hr TF - the support line is still intact assuring its too early to look for bearish signs. When the support line falls in the 1hr TF we will try going short. This will only plan out if the other indices are also dipping.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty Bulish Expanding TriangleBanknifty Bulish Expanding Triangle Today Banknifty break all time High. It's an historical moment of Indian Economy as well as bank nifty Index. As per the chart pattern Banknifty trying to break all previous highs including today. This is all time high position now briefly understand the position where we are--- Upper side no resistance only at 43900 predicted. Lower side 43300 is a strong support zone. Market close with Green Marubuzu mean to open with green signal or going towards long.(Predicted) as per Oi data of 15th Dec Expiry PCR is 0.75 which is below 1 . it will change after market open tomorrow. FII's strongly Buying Future and Option. as per chart it will move upper side after taking a valid support. depend upon market situation. Perfect fib retracement zone is 43300 with pivot support and price action level. this position can be vary 0.5%- 1% up or down level. So Range 43300-43900 predicted *Anything is possible in the FNO market **Be careful before taking sharp entry watch keenly and do your best trade. ***don't take "One More Trade" which will harm your mindset and damage you capital.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by dasarijit245