PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 02 DEC 2022Relatively a quieter day with no major swings. The opening was a deep gap down at 42976 and we had a green first candle. Approx 142pts recovered in the opening 5mts.
Ideally bank nifty has to be compared with Nifty50 to get some relativity. Bank nifty was more stable than Nifty today - Nifty kept on dropping till 12.35 before it got support and had a minor pull back. Bank nifty on the other hand had a neutral kind of day - the final close was above the day's open.
BN did have a similar selling pattern as nifty50 - but the slope of selling was not that impactful - The pull that followed after 12.35 was much stronger and helped BN close above 43100.
If we summarize the day the entire range of the day was well within the opening candle. Now thats quite interesting because we may have change in macros coming up by next week & the usual profit bookings by the FIIs as its December. Will they hold onto gains or take some profit and move to cash ?
The put option prices did not show any anomaly today - the jumps in premiums were quite normal indicating that put writers had expected the markets not to fall that much today. Also the implied volatility did not spike much - even the India VIX did not spike even when nifty50 fell 1.3% from HOD to LOD.
As it stands i am not feeling inclined to add onto any equity positions at present. Not just that they are at all time highs - they are just at insanely high valuations without a change in fundamentals.
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Banknity components chart now changed to 10mts TF to show a glimpse of the previous day's price action too
HDFC bank was continuing the selling momentum from yesterday - but today's price moves flat with no positive bias
ICICI Bank also continued from yesterday's trend, had a similar chart like HDFC but the cuts were quite deeper
SBI on the other hand did recover to the flat line and almost showing an positive bias.
AXIS was the on bank to dip after the gap down, support came in at 10.15 and the pattern from there was bullish. 14.55 price move ensured it went through the flat line with momentum.
Kotak had a gap down and then slowly built its way back to the flat line.
IndusInd is again jumping up and down - are the investors pricing in some news or event? Final close as in positive territory.
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We have a contradictory chart in 15mts Vs 1hr TF - because 15mts is looking bearish now whereas there is no signal in the 1hr chart.
1D vs 1W TFs are too early to catch any trend reversal without appearing on the 1hr first. So we need to wait for 2 to 3 days before it can show up.
Frankly unbelievable rally by bank nifty, secondly sending my wishes to all the bulls who had the conviction to allow it to rally so much. I am no bull nor bear here. Would prefer to stay out of equity other than with a trading interest.
Bankniftyoptions
Wedge Pattern in BankniftyWedge Pattern in Banknifty
Be aware
After Proper breakout you should take proper trade
Still there is chance to Uptrend
When you think that its a probability to uptrend then sit tight and wait for the proper entry
This is a mental setup in the world
no body teach you how to release Stress after taking a wrong entry
PCR 0.68
If you think its down then do your favorable entry after proper tradesetup
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(02/12/2022)Today will be flat opening in BANKNIFTY . After opening if the bank nifty sustain below the 43450 level then a possible downside of 400-500 points up to 43050. And reversal chances of from 43050 level. And this rally can extend for another 400 points if it gives a breakout of the 43550 level.
Banknifty Rannge 43150-43600 Bull/BearBanknifty Rannge 43150-43600 Bull/Bear
banknifty expect a bulish start from 43500 phycological level
Key Points of Bulish Sign
1 Rising Wedge Pattern
2 USD-INR in down trend
3 50% FIb Retracement exactly from 43200
4 FII Index Fut sales- (-526.09 ) FII Index Opt Net Purchase - 8,088.83
FIi Activity data looks they like to interest in current situation to not hold the investment so current market definately high
5 Already meet the previous lower level 43100
6 withdrawl from cash market negetive impact on stock and positive impact on index
7 most Oi stand in the Call side at 43500 & 43600 so its provide a sharp Resistance so market will start from here probability to hit thier SL and then down as per rule of Rising Wedge Pattern
Other point to be keep in mind
1 How Global market Opening
2 How SGX NIfty Opening
all points is positive sign but still there is a chance to get down for taking the favorable support.
Hope your Best Trade
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PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 01 DEC 2022 ExpiryThe frustration i had trading yesterday was a blessing for today, its because technically i felt bank nifty is showing bearishness and was looking out for bearish opportunities. The last 30mts rally on 30th Nov changed my opinion.
Its not that i became bullish, but that i decided not to have a bias. Bank nifty opened mega gap up at 43512 (new all time high) and made a red hammer candle with a long wick. From there it was a gradual fall till 13.15.
What happened between 13.20 to 13.55 was quite a mirror image to what we had between 15.00 to 15.25 yesterday. We had a drop of 302pts today compared with the 312 pts that gained in the same interval.
I am inclined to look at this as unwinding of the build up we had yesterday - but the volumes on the bank stocks did not surge equivalently. So it could even be expiry related position unwinding.
Looking at monday 28th Nov, the bank nifty options interest suggested we might even have a close below 43000 - read here. But since the macros changed after that (Fed chair Powell's talk about reducing the rate of interest hike sending S&P500 up 3.1%, Nasdaq 4.58% and DowJones almost into a bull market) the options writers would have been worried that final close will not be below 43000.
This 20 to 30mts gave a good opportunity for them to exit their position even without booking a loss as the 43000 CE did drop in value between 28th and today.
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Of the bank nifty components :-
HDFC bank had a positive day the open and close price almost nearby. The chart pattern was a minor negative slope.
ICICI Bank had a deep negative slope and the final close was in red.
SBI opened gap up, went underwater and then reversed direction by 11.25. The final chart pattern is positive
AXIS had a gap up, the a quick fall and then a gradual positive slope. Final close was flattish.
Kotak started the day positive, went underwater by 13.10, almost hit LOD by 13.55 and then a small pull back till 14.35. Final chart pattern was negative
IndusInd bank prices was jumping up and down wrt flat line. Final close was positive whereas chart pattern formed as neutralish.
The launch of CBDC (Central bank digital currency) e-Rupee would have created change in fundamentals that are yet to be priced in. CBDC in the long run are bearish for the banks as they lose control to create currency via debt (according to me). But for a big country like India wherein the majority of people still dont have a bank account - the impact may take years to be felt.
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15mts TF had a negative price action today mainly because of the mega gap up.
1hr TF is looking bullish as the gap up looks inline with the chart slope.
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New Support & Resistance lines added at 43253, 42883 & 42576
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(01/12/2022)Today will be a gap up opening in BANKNIFTY. Expected opening above 43550 Level. After opening if banknifty sustain above this level then possible upside rally of 400-500 points upto 43950 level And this rally can extend for another 400 points if it gives breakout of 44050 level. Any Major downside only expected in case banknifty starts trading below 43450 level.
MINDTREE BUY CALL SETUPbuy @3350
tgt-3400\3500\4000+
strong fundamental,technically ,bullish behaviour in given range.
Banknifty daily analysis for 01/12/22.Banknifty on the daily time frame has formed a dragon fly doji and gave a nice movement during the closing hour of the session.
The index has been consolidating on the higher levels and can give a good moment either side as tomorrow is a weekly expiry.
On the hourly time frame, the market has formed a W-shape pattern and is respecting the 20 ema.
Market has given a U-shape recovery on the smaller time frame and closed above 43250 levels.
Support :- 43000, 42890, 42770
Resistance :- 43270
The market has formed a triple top pattern.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the markets.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 30 NOV 2022
Feeling pretty tired after watching today's price action. For the last 3 days i have been looking out on the bearish side of bank nifty. The day started gap up and then a rally of 127pts in the first 5mts candle.
This was inline with the recent swing high level - took an immediate resistance and then started falling. For once i thought my short sell view on bank nifty is finally working out.
The fall that started at 09.20 went on till 11.25 almost a dip of 365pts. This fall made more bearishness as the nifty50 was still steaming ahead. Then we had a sideways move till 12.50.
What happened after that is like a fairy tale. The first leg of upmove from 12.55 to 13.10 then the 2nd leg at 13.45 all the way to the close.
From 13.45 bank nifty rallied 401pts with 2 strong green candles at 15.00 and 15.10. This not just took out the swing high but showed immense bullish momentum.
The last 30mts move could be either an expiry special positioning or may be a rebalancing move. I am not really inclined to reverse by bearish bias with just this 1 occurrence. Lets wait for the price action on Friday for accurate direction.
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Of the bank nifty components
HDFC BK started the day positively then the the entire day was near the flatline if not for the last 30mts spike
ICICI Bank had fell into negative territory but the last 30mts ensured the day's high is taken out
SBI did not take part in the last 30mts rally and was trading in the negative region all through the day.
AXIS had turned positive by 13.40 and then got extra momentum in the last 30mts
Kotak was trading with a negative bias, started showing recovery signs by 11.00. But the last 30mts had the best impact for Kotak
IndusInd like SBI was trading in red, and the last 30mts rally did not boost the price.
Notice the volume bars of all these 6 banks. This was the reason there was a surge in prices. This could be either an index or mutual fund rebalancing exercise. Looking at just this data will not provide conclusive evidence if its fresh buy.
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15mts TF has taken out the swing high showing bullish signals. But it just came in 1 candle - which is kind of surprising
1hr TF shows bullishness
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Bank Nifty Tarding SetupBank Nifty Tarding Setup
Bank Nifty try to test 42800
AS per the chart bank nifty shown the breaking levels and towards down
Prediction based on the chart
Most of the days banknifty touch 200 EMI and 50 EMI basis on market situation this is now trying to reach at 200 EMi which is around 42800.
Option Hunter
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(30/11/2022)Today will be slightly gap down opening in BANKNIFTY . After opening if the bank nifty sustain below the 42950 level then a possible downside of 400-500 points up to 42550. And reversal chances of from 42550 level. And this rally can extend for another 400 points if it gives a breakout of the 43050 level.
Peanut & Double Top / "M" Chart PatternPeanut & Double Top / "M" Chart Pattern
During the trading Season it was found that Double top is created by bank nifty Index.
It is a Reversal Sign and another conclusion happen when peanut pattern shown in the chart.
So trading wisely can save your money from lose and Gaining more eligibility to earning more from trading .
After peanut pattern breaking enter the trade target was height of the patterns followed by Peanut and Double top .
OPTION HUNTER
@optionhunter4306
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Banknifty daily analysis for 30/11/22Banknifty on the daily time frame has formed a gravestone doji on the higher levels.
The market can take a retest before proceeding to create new highs.
On hourly time frame, the market has tested the 20 ema and closed near the level.
Banknifty is unable to sustain above 43200 level. The market has formed a double top pattern on the smaller time frame.
On 15 minute time frame, the market consolidated in a box and gave a break down in the closing hour of the session.
Support :- 43950, 42850, 42770
Resistance :- 43135, 43270
Look for the global markets as the Dow jones was lower yesterday. If the global markets are weak, India markets can also come for a retracement.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the markets.
Banknifty daily analysis for 29/11/22Banknifty on the daily time frame has given a bullish moment after a gap down and closed almost flat gaining 36 points.
On the hourly time frame, the market crossed the 20 ema after a gap down and closed near the levels.
The market whole day traded around the 20 ema (15 minute time frame) and closed below the moving average.
Support :- 42950, 42770, 42675
Resistance :- 43135, 43220
The markets are waiting near the higher levels and can give another bullish move after the consolidation.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the markets.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 28 NOV 2022On Friday 25th, I had a bearish call for Bank nifty - read here. Did it work out as expected - ABSOLUTELY NO !
Refer the chart below, bank nifty opened gap down at 42757 and for a moment i thought its all going as per the plan. But the first candle itself was pretty strong and by 09.30 BN had closed down the gap. The period from 09.35 to 11.25 the moves were quite normal.
But the move from 11.30 to 12.25 was pretty strong and convincing - all the candles green, all of them with good body and all of them forming a beautiful step like pattern.
If we look at the chart exactly at 12.25, as and when it happened the bearishness was wiped out and BN was looking to take out the swing high of the last day. This positivity may have resulted from the moves of RELIANCE (up 3.44%).
Anyways from 12.55 to the end of the day BN fell, the final close at 42983 exactly same as the previous day's close.
I am more bearish now, the charts showed it on friday - the options volume shows it today.
48000 CE was traded for 52.28 lakhs qty, a strike thats 11.6% away and 3 days to expiry. This shows the intensity of call writing.
Similarly 45000 CE for 1.43 crore qty, 44000 CE for 2.58 crore qty, 43000 CE 11.04 crore qty.
The option sellers are planning to have an expiry below 43000 this thursday - whether that will hold i do not know. But will tomorrow be bearish - most likely !
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Of the bank nifty components
HDFC bank started gap down and was pretty much in a narrow range
ICICI started flat and rallied, a small leg of dip 13.45 to 14.15 but ended strong
SBI fell in the early trade, moves from 14.50 to 15.15 unexplainable and that too with good volume
AXIS trended positively but the fall from 13.45 almost took it back to where it started, final closing is positive
Kotak - started mega gap down and recovered in the first candle, a mega green candle. Swung up and down and finally closed flattish
IndusInd was trading softly earlier in the day, but by 11.40 it gained strength went up till 13.05 and then fell quite strongly. Recovered and then ended positively.
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15mts is not showing bullishness now - its either range trade or an interim top formation which might show further fall.
1hr is still bullish, nearest support is quite deep below - we cannot go short overnight as its still too early.
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(28/11/2022) Today will be a slightly gap up opening in BANKNIFTY. Expected opening above 43050 Level. After opening if Bank nifty sustain above this level then possible upside rally of 400-500 points upto 43450 Level. Any Major downside only expected in case Bank nifty starts trading below 42950 level.
Banknifty daily analysis for 28/11/22Banknifty on the weekly time frame has given a nice bullish candle but after testing the 43k level couldn't sustain it.
On the daily time frame, the market has formed a doji candle on the higher levels.
Banknifty on the hourly time frame, has formed a bearish flag pattern. The market remained for selling after a gap up and took support from the 20 ema and closed above the level.
On 15 minute time frame, the market has closed below the 20 ema and traded whole day near the level.
Support :- 42300, 42880, 42770
Resistance :- 43040, 43220
The market came for selling on the daily time frame and market can test the lower levels before giving another bullish leg.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the markets.