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30 May 2024 - BankNifty defended 48661 quite aggressively todayBankNifty Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty had an awkward-looking opening today, a decent gap-down, and breaking the 48661 support. The intraday lowest point was the level at which we opened today. More importantly, we retraced the fall and even re-tested the 48947 levels. Fortunately for the bears, 48947 resistance was not broken, if it had given away - then we would have been forced to go long. Between 14.55 to 15.15 we tested the support levels of 48661 and it was defended again. The final closing is so positive for the banks that I am really worried about how Nifty50 is going to gather momentum for a breakdown. We might have to break either of the 48661 or 48947 levels tomorrow and be prepared for what is coming next week. I seriously hope we find some bearish momentum soon.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty analysis for tomorrow 31 MayAs we discussed, the Banknifty bearish or Sideways structure market gave a volatile move in range, as we discussed in case 1. If we look at the chart now: The market took very nice support from 200 EMA. And it was quite volatile for the whole day. The Price is struggling to break the 50-EMA resistance. The market is going to be sideways in the range of 48487-48899 unless it breaks to the upside (high probability). If we look at the OI data: PCR = 0.82, which has risen from 0.63. shows a good amount of PE writing on the lower side. There has been good CE and PE writing at 48500 and 49000. The next support point is 48000 on the lower side and 49500 on the upper side. People are making Strange for election results. I am expecting Case 1: Sideways in the range 48487-48900. Case 2: if the market breaks 48900 to the upside- Bullish With a good volatility market in upcoming sessions because VIX is 24.2. Reason: RSI is 40-60 shows a sideways structure. (Bearish) EMA(50) > Price > EMA(200), which indicates indecisive or rather sideways market. The market has taken support from 200 EMA, which might lead to a bullish market in the upcoming session. The market has given a good volume spike that shows this level is good support. PCR = 0.82 shows good market bullish sign. Price> VWAP shows that a bullish market structure can lead to a Bull market. Verdict: Sideways (70% chances) or Bullish (30% chances) Plan of action: Case 1: Sideways: Sell 48500 PE & 48900 CE (Hedge it with 50/- premium options) Case 2: Bullish: Sell 48600 PE (Hedge it with 50/- CE option)
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by finnova_
29 May 2024 - BankNifty stance revised to neutral, not bearish!Banknifty closed just below the SR of 48603 and for the same reason, I am going neutral. Unlike Nifty, BN has few SR zones nearby hence the decision to go neutral instead of bearish. Although we fell 640pts ~ 1.3%, none of the 63mts candles closed distinctly below 48603 which is a sign of worry for the Bears, Meanwhile, the drop seen in ICICI will be considered with a lot of seriousness. Earlier when HDFC and KOTAK were taking beatings, ICICI had stayed strong. In fact, the major contributor to the BN points came from the rally of ICICI than HDFC. I would prefer to start the day tomorrow with a neutral bias and then go short if 48351 is taken out during the first 2 hours. Ideally, BN and N50 have to face the same direction before going to the election results.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty Prediction for tomorrow 30 May As we discussed, the Banknifty bearish structure market gave a very nice momentum to the downside. If we look at the chart now: The market is trading at 200 EMA(30 min TF), which can provide potential support. Also, bank nifty is trading between fib 0.50 and 0.61, which might also be a good support zone. The price is trading lower than EMA(13,50) and above EMA(200). this zone is perfect for taking support for Banknifty. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 0.63 shows a bearish signal in the market. There is good writing on both sides at 48400 and 48500. 48000 has good PE writing, so it is going to provide a good support zone. on the upper side, 49000 is going to be a hard resistance zone because of heavy CE writing. I am expecting Case 1: Sideways in range 48400-48853. Case 2: if the market breaks 48400 to the downside- Bearish With a good volatility market in upcoming sessions because VIX is 24.2. Reason: RSI < 40 shows a weak bull structure. (Bearish) EMA(13) > Price >= EMA(200), which indicates indecisive or rather sideways market. The market might receive support at 200 EMA. The market has given a good volume spike that shows this level is good support. PCR = 0.63 indicates bearish. price < VWAP shows that a weak market structure can lead to a bearish market. Verdict: Bearish or Sideways. Plan of action: Case 1: Sideways: Sell 48400 PE & 48850 CE (Hedge it with 15/- premium options) Case 2: Bearish: Sell 48400 CE (Hedge it with 15/- CE option)
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by finnova_
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Banknifty prediction for tomorrow 29 Mar | Expiry SpecialAs we discussed, the Banknifty sideways or bearish structure market was bearish while having sideways volatility. If we look at the chart now: The market has broken the support level to the downside with a continuously increasing volume. If the market fails to take support at 50 EMA, it will fall rapidly to the 48631 level. RSI is also below 50 and about to cross 40, which will lead to a strong, bearish structure, and the market can correct itself to 200 EMA levels. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 0.80, which has fallen from 0.98. That indicates that there is good CE writing at higher levels, which can also be seen in the OI chart. 49000 is the max pain for Banknifty. Also, the next good PE writing is at 48500. there is not much CE writing on lower levels. I am expecting a bearish market with a good volatility market in upcoming sessions because VIX is 24.2. Reason: RSI < 50 falling from the upside shows a good reduction in the bull's strength. If it crosses 40 on the downside, the market will be strong and bearish. EMA(13) > Price > EMA(200), which indicates indecisive or rather sideways market. the market can correct itself till 200 EMA. The market has formed a lower high that indicates the market is bearish. PCR = 0.80 indicates mild bullish, but this has fallen from 0.98, which shows good CE writing on higher levels. price < VWAP shows that a weak market structure can lead to a bearish market. Verdict: Bearish Plan of action: Sell 49100 CE (Hedge it with 15/- PE premium) Note: you can target 200 EMA.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by finnova_
Banknifty Prediction for tomorrow 28 MayAs we discussed, Banknifty's bullishness in past sessions has hit its target today. If we look at the chart now: The market has touched the target (49471), as we mentioned in the previous analysis. A huge fall was registered once the given target got hit. That means it's working as a good resistance zone for the upcoming session. Now, for the market to go further, it has to take some consolidation in the range (49168-49650), which is Fib level (0.38). If we look at the OI data: PCR = 0.98, which has fallen from 1.34. That indicates that it had a huge PE winding today, which can also be seen in the OI chart. There is a CE addition for 49500 and 50000, which is going to provide good resistance from now on. 49000 is good support at lower levels. I am expecting a sideways in the range (49168-49650) with a good volatility market in upcoming sessions because VIX is 23+. Reason: RSI ~ 60 falling from the upside shows a good reduction in the bull's strength. EMA(13) > Price > EMA(200), which indicates indecisive or rather sideways market.. The market is still making HH & HL, which shows bullishness, but a huge selling pressure from the upside shows lots of sellers' interest that might lead to a sideways market. PCR = 0.98 indicates bullishness, but this has fallen from 1.34, which shows lots of profit booking on the upside. price < VWAP shows that a weak market structure can lead to a bearish or sideways market. Verdict : Sideways or Bearish Plan of action: Sell 49600 CE and 49100 PE (Hedge it with 15/- premium) Note: Exit CE if it breaks 49700 to the upside & Exit PE if it breaks 49100 to the downside. But right now, there are more chances for the market to be sideways or bearish.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by finnova_
Banknifty prediction for Today 24 MayAs we discussed, Banknifty gave a very nice momentum with huge bullishness. If we look at the chart now: The market has broken the wedge pattern to the upside, and it is also continuously making HH and HL. The price is trading above EMAs, which shows strength in the price. Also, RSI > 60 shows huge bullishness in the market. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 1.20, which has risen from 0.73, shows huge PE writing on the Lower side, indicating a bullish structure in the market. The market does not have much CE writing on the higher side. That makes bulls more powerful. Lower levels have good support levels, as shown in the OI chart. I am expecting a sideways market to go bullish. It might take some sideways consolidation, but I am overall bullish on the market. Reason: RSI > 60 shows the market is having very good strength. Price > EMA(13,200), which indicates powerful bull market. The market has broken the pattern to the upside while making HH and HL. PCR = 1.20 shows a heavily bullish nature in the market. price > VWAP shows weak market structure. Verdict: Sideways or Bullish Plan of action: Sell 48600 PE and 49100 CE (Hedge it with 15/- premium) Note: Exit the opposite either side it breaks
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by finnova_
23 May 2024 - BankNifty stance is bullish now, but 48947 crucialBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Yesterday we changed the stance from bullish to neutral as 48115 resistance was not breached, but that break came by 09.51 today. Hope you got my email when we revised the stance back to bullish via trading view. The intraday rally was a whopping 957pts ~ 2.00% and we took out 2 resistances today viz - 48115 and 48661. The next one is at 48947. On a higher time frame, BN will receive more momentum once this resistance is taken out. The reason was the rejection of this level on 10th April and that may have a bearing.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
22 May 2024 - BankNifty stance revised to neutral, not bullishThe trades on banknifty were going on perfectly till 14.30. The final hour took out all the profits from the intraday straddles, not just that the algos ended the day in RED. The moves that came in the 2 16mts candles 14.51 and 15.07 were not normal. Yes, we have seen even wilder moves from BN earlier, but today was just stop loss hunting by the HFTs - how else would you explain a 500pts swing in 32mts?? We are not bearish as 47465 support was held, and the reason we are not bullish is that 48115 resistance was not taken out. Between these 2 levels, we would like to maintain a neutral stance. Also decided against running nifty50 algos on Thursdays as the stakes are too high. It is better to sit the day out than risk my capital, effort, and time for the manipulative games by the HFTs.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
21 May 2024 - BankNifty has a candle below Banknifty had a more flattish tone today compared to Nifty. The hesitance to get past the 48115 resistance was clearly visible. Even though Nifty closed the day flat, BN gave up some points ~ 151, -0.31%. We wish to start the 22nd with a bullish view but switch back to neutral if the 48115 resistance is not getting taken out. Since 22nd is the expiry day, the actual moves may not be conclusive. Will wait for the 3pm move to guess the direction with a higher confidence level
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
Banknifty prediction for tomorrow Expiry 22 MayAs we discussed, Banknifty was sideways today. If we look at the chart now: The market is trading at 200 EMA, breaking off, which might lead to a double top neck break to the downside. The market is making a rising wedge pattern after a huge fall, which might be a preparation for next fall to the downside if it beaks to the downside. Important support levels will be 47800, 47387, and 47000. on the other hand, 48231, 48445, and 48587 are going to provide a good price action resistance. If we look at the OI data: PCR = 0.73, which has fallen from 0.98, which shows huge CE writing on the upper side, indicating a bearish structure in the market. 48000 is maxPain. On the higher side, there is a huge amount of resistance at each level. However, on the lower side, PE writing is less effective, which indicates that the market might fall in the upcoming session. I am expecting a sideways market inside a rising wedge pattern. If it breaks down, I expect a good bearish move to the 47387 level. Reason: RSI is 40-60 shows the market is going to be sideways. Price < EMA(13,200), which indicates weak bulls. The market is making a rising wedge pattern. If it breaks to the downside, it's going to give a nice fall. The market is making double the top if the price breaks the downside of 200 EMA. There is a high probability of market bearishness. price < VWAP shows weak market structure. Verdict: Sideways inside rising wedge. if breaks to downside Bearish. Plan of action: Sell 48200 CE and 48800 PE (Hedge it with 15/- premium)
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by finnova_
Banknifty Prediction for tomorrow 20 May 24As we discussed Banknifty sideways or Bullish; it ended-up sideways with high volatility on upper side. If we look at the chart: The market is trading at support (Price action + 200 EMA support) right now. the important levels for tomorrow are 200 EMA, 48000, 47400 will be working as very good support. while 48445, and 49125 will be working as nice resistance. If we look at OI data: PCR = 0.98 shows bullish structure. if we notice most of the time today there was only position wind off. 48200 seems to be working as max-pain. while major shpport zone is 48000. on the higher side 48500 is going to provide a heavy resistance. As market is in breakout phase I am expecting market yet to go higher. Reasons: RSI crossing 60 to upside that might be a starting of new bullish trend. Price > EMA (13, 200), which shows the market can take support at 200 EMA and go bullish. PCR = 0.98 shows a bullish sign. Price > VWAP means bulls are getting strength. The market has already given a breakout it was a good accumulation today; soon, it will shoot to the upside soon. unless there is some political news effect. Verdict: Sideways or Bullish Plan of action: Sell 48000 PE and 48400CE (Hedge with 20/- Premium)
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by finnova_
16 May 2024 - BankNifty goes bullish, strong intraday rallyBankNifty Analysis — Stance Bullish ⬆️ The stance on BN also revised to bullish not because we took out the resistance, but due to the 707pts ~ 1.5% intraday rally that came right from the support level. Usually, powerful moves like this will have extended legs that could start appearing in days to follow. We only need to know whether the move came out from a news event or not because if it did, then no amount of technical analysis can codify it. BN has also formed a W pattern showing bullishness. On the 63mts TF, the final candle of the day almost fills the gap between the support and resistance. Hoping to see follow through tomorrow. The algos were at a loss today, understandably so because of the wild swings we got today.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
Banknifty Prediction for tomorrow 17 May 24As we discussed Banknifty sideways or Bullish; it ended-up sideways with high volatility. If we look at the chart: The market is trading at resistance (Price action + 200 EMA resistance) right now. the important levels for tomorrow are 47401, 47000 will be working as very good support. while 200 EMA, 47970, and 48332 will be working as nice resistance. If we look at OI data: PCR = 0.88 shows bullish structure. if we notice today after 11 AM they is a very heavy CE winding up in the market. 48000 CE was removed approx 33% that shows big players are winding up CE positions in heavy quantity. which might push the market to upside. FII and DII not yet available. I nam expecting market to go Higher in uppcoming sessions. Reasons: RSI crossing 60 to upside that might be a starting of new bullish trend. Price > EMA (13) but less than 200 EMA(resistance), which shows the market still has to break 200 EMA to go bullish. PCR = 0.88 shows a bullish sign. Price > VWAP means bulls are getting strength. The market has already given a breakout it was a good accumulation today; soon, it will shoot to the upside. Verdict: Sideways or Bullish Plan of action: Sell 48000 CE and 47600 PE (Hedge with 20/- Premium)
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by finnova_
15 May 2024 - Banknifty in neutral territory, break 47465 for 🐻BankNifty Analysis — Stance Neutral ➡️ BN ended the day with cuts of -172pts ~ -0.36%. We went neutral after the price action on 13th May. After that, we had one up day (14th) and a down day (15th) — the result, we are back in the neutral territory. BN did not even go to the 48115 levels which came as a surprise. Ideally, on 16th there may be an attempt to take out 48115 resistance, only then the Bulls can exert their dominance. If it stays like this, we get another lower low formation and it would mean the Bears will come back much stronger. Only if 47465 is broken, we will change our stance from neutral to bearish. The algos made a super profit of 45596 INR today.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
14 May 2024 - BN needs a bit more thrust to go BullishBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ The definition of a neutral stance was much more suited for BN rather than N50 today. See the short-range in which BN operated today and notice the slow grind. Even then the volatility was very high, take a look at the HDFC Bank price moves today. How does the elephant move like that? BankNifty may not go bullish even if 48115 resistance level is taken out, it may need a bit more thrust for a change in stance. The reason is because the downfall was quite sharp and before changing the stance, we need to make sure that a higher low is not getting formed. Algos ended the day with gains of 8064 INR. Ideally, it should have made more as the chart was stable - but the volatility ensured the premiums were skewed causing unplanned losses earlier in the day.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
13 May 2024– BankNifty rallies 858pts ~ 1.83% intraday - NEUTRALBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Just when we thought the 47465 was getting broken for good, we got a pullback. We fell 527pts ~ 1.11% by 10.39 and then the pull back was a whopping 858pts ~ 1.83%. The final close was almost the midpoint of 48115 and 47465 which prompted me to change the stance to neutral for tomorrow. The bulk of the heavy lifting came from HDFC Bank in this dramatic reversal by BN. Just when I thought HDFC may break 1425 for another round of collapse - we get a sharp reversal. It rallied an amazing 29pts ~ 2% to change the entire narrative. On the 63mts TF, BN might try to take out the 48115 resistance tomorrow itself. In case the markets figure out that the reversal was not technical but due to front running, news, or event related - we could see repeat buyers (if news was true) and a sharp fall (if the news was planted and false). Algos forward test is shown as generating 5764 INR, but the day was in loss today - this must be again due to slippage.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Banknifty weekly analysis for 13/05/2024.Banknifty has been trading in a rising parallel channel which is a bearish pattern. The support trend line has been tested 4 times and it is testing it again, closing around it. Even the weekly 20 Ema is around the closing of the candle. If there is a break down on the weekly candle after 2-3 days of consolidation or halt, there is a high chances of bearish momentum is the markets. Major support/target levels:-46600, 45800 Let the market decide the trend and trade accordingly. For last 8 trading session, there is a red candle on the daily charts. A retracement or consolidation is required before any further fall in the market. Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Mambotrade
10 May 2024 — BankNifty has to take out 47465 for super Bearish'BankNifty had a better kind of retracement than Nifty, but it was not able to break away from the 47465 today. More importantly, it was not even able to break down either. That signifies the importance of 47465 as a critical SR level. The behavior from open to 10.07 was quite exactly as we wrote about yesterday. This market is held by weak Bears and they run for cover very fast, unable to persist with their short position. When we connect the last 2 days of price action, the visual impression shows the continuation of bearishness. On Monday we hope the 47465 level gets broken down for the good. The next major support comes only at 46284 and if we get there — it would have to come from ICICI, AXIS & SBI as these remain the only 3 major banks that have not mean reverted. The #Banknifty algos made Rs17120 today. The high implied volatility is helping the option sellers.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram