09 May 2024 - 47465 is the real laxman rekha, break 2 go full 🐻BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️
The bearish call on the BN was spot on, but we ended the day less bearish than N50, for me that is not good enough. Most importantly, BN did not breach the support of 47465, this was very crucial for the momentum to build.
I am not exactly sure if we will start negatively tomorrow or not, a huge gapup or gapdown may work in our favor, but if BN is opening flat at the SR level - it may even move up a bit. 47465 for me was the critical support that we failed to break.
The price action on a few of the bank stocks looked pretty scary. HDFC Bank -2.37%, IndusInd -2.85%, RBL Bank -3.07%. The only reason we did not fall that much was because ICICI Bank, Kotak, and SBI were holding good at the other end.
The biggest doubt I have these days is Kotak is at multi-year lows, HDFC Bank is almost at the 2020 levels but BankNifty is simply near the ATHs - is ICICI, SBI, and Axis Bank responsible for the stark outperformance???
The stance is still bearish, but the first thing we need to do in the morning session is to take out the 47465 levels failing which we could get a minor pullback or short covering.
Algos ended up generating 8253 INR, not bad despite a trending day.
Bankniftyoptions
Banknifty Intraday Prediction Levels for 7 May 2024The chart indicates 15 min time frame. These Levels act as Support and Resistance according to position of price. These are strictly for Intraday Trading only. Execution only after break out and close above the Resistance zone or break down and close below the Support zone.
These levels act as support and resistance. You have to trade according to level breakout or breakdown.
To buy or sell you can follow Buy/Sell Indication given by indicator or you can follow cloud also.
If you are a new trader then just watch (No Trade) these levels for some days.
Happy trading.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI Registered Analyst. Anything posted here is my own analysis and views. This is created for educational purposes only. Always consult with your Financial Advisor before taking any decision or trade.
03 May 2024 - BankNifty stance also changed to neutral, weaknessBankNifty Analysis — Stance Neutral ➡️
BankNifty had an intraday swing of 952pts ~ 1.92% at par with what Nifty had today. There was a brief period of recovery 11.39 to 12.43, but this did not sustain and we hit an intraday low of 48659 by 13.39.
BankNifty is actually weaker than Nifty, because we did not pull back even a bit yesterday and then you combine today’s price action. But if you look at the charts side by side — Nifty shows a higher bearishness than BN — but it is not.
For Monday, we wish to start with a neutral stance and then go short if 48350 is getting taken out. I might wait out for the ATH to be taken out to go long. The algo made 3901 INR.
02 May 2024 - BankNifty is not bearish yet, still holding gainsBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish⬆️
BankNifty's pattern is quite interesting, unlike N50, it did not even attempt to recoup the losses in the last hour of the previous session. It is too early to comment if it is bearishness as the charts do not say so. But the way a few banks dropped today was quite worrying. Despite that, BN did not cede ground - quite surprising on how the other banks came to stabilize the index after Kotak took the beating.
On the 63mts TF, BN looks bullish still - but the obvious thing it had to do was to retrace at least 50% of the RED candle @ 14.30 yesterday. The run up so far has been more than expected, so taking a pause or even giving up some gains is not bad at all. We wish to start the day with a bullish tone and then go neutral if 48934 is getting breached.
Algos made only 859 INR today.
Banknifty analysis for tomorrow 30 Apr 24As we discussed, Banknifty, if it takes support at 200 EMA, will make a higher high, but we didn't expect that heavy bullishness.
If we look at the chart:
The market is trading in the 4H-TF resistance zone; it has also broken an all-time high. That indicates bulls are very powerful, and today's moment reflects that. The price is very far from the EMAs(50, 200). there is a chance the market might consolidate here for 1 or 2 days.
All important levels have been marked at the chart.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 1.65, which has risen from 0.76. it's a very strong change in OI that shows there is something very big event coming up. 49500 and 50000 are showing significant resistance levels. Other than that, not much of the CE is written on higher levels.
On lower levels, there is heavy PE writing that shows that the Bulls are in full control of the market.
FII and DII data do not give much information today.
I expect the market to consolidate here for 1 or 2 days. After that, we will plan our trade according to the price action.
Verdict: Sideways at Resistance
Plan of action : Wait for the market to make some price action here.
Banknifty Analysis for tomorrow 29 Apr 24As we discussed the live market Banknifty analysis, after that, it showed a huge fall.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading at the 200 EMA, which is likely a very good support point. Also, it gave a nice pullback with good volume in the last 15 min. Also, the market is trading at the 0.23 fib level, which is not likely to provide support after such a sharp fall. I expect the market to give the 0.38 fib retracement.
ALL IMPORTANT LEVELS HAVE BEEN MARKED ON THE CHART.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.82, which has fallen from 0.98, which shows bears are increasing their positions in the market continuously. On the last trading day, there was a huge call writing on upper levels at 48300, 48400, and 48500. on the lower side, 48200 and 48000 are the only PE writing left. If 48000 breaks to the downside, there is not much PE writing on the lower side.
If we look at the FII & DII data, FII and Pro are strong, bearish clients while clients are bullish, which shows that the market is going to open a gap-down.
The market is at a crucial level right now. There are two cases:
Case 1 : If it takes support at 200 EMA, it might come back strong and touch 48600 again.
Case 2: If it breaks to the downside, it's going to test the 0.5 fib level at 47800.
Reasons:
price < EMA(13) shows the market is in a bearish phase. And bears are strong. While the price is taking support at 200, EMA might force the market to take support at this point.
RSI < 50 shows strong bears' power. Bulls are weak at this point. (Bearish)
PCR = 0.82, which has been falling rapidly from 0.98. shows bears are actively increasing their position size. (Bearish)
price < VWAP shows a bearish market structure. (Bearish)
Verdict: Mild Bearish
Plan of action:
Case 1: Sell 48000 PE (Hedge with 15/- PE premium)
Case 2: Sell 48100 CE (Hedge with 15/- CE premium)
26 Apr 2024– BankNifty has to take out 48119 to go neutralBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️
Banknifty falls 293pts ~ 0.61% today, but I have not changed the stance to neutral yet. The charts are not as weak as Nifty50 and there was some restraint on how BN hit the lows today.
After opening gap up, BN took a dip and then got its head back by 13.11. HDFC Bank's price action was extremely unusual, making an unusual spike till 09.43 and then falling back to where it all started. In a perfect inverted V shape, how does the highest weighted stock of Nifty50, NiftyBank, and FinNifty move like a meme stock?
For Monday, we wish to start with a bullish view but switch to neutral if 48119 levels are getting taken out. Even though we hit that level intraday, the closing was much above that it did not result in a stance change. The BN algos ended the day with a modest gain of Rs570.
Bank Nifty Analysis for 24-04-2024 expiry.BankNifty touched the resistance zone of 48250 and reversed from there. Post which we had a sideways market.
It also to be noted that VIX has crashed nearly 20% for today. We can expect a sudden fall or raise in market due to this crash in upcoming days. Also, this will be good trade setup for option sellers but still the sudden spike n market will affect their setup as well.
Below are the BankNifty levels for 24/4/2024 expiry.
If BankNifty sustains above the resistance of 48250 we can expect a upward movement to above resistance levels
Below are the resistance levels to watch
Resistance 1 48550
Resistance 2 49000
If BNF moves downward and breaks the major support at 47900. We can expect a next support at 47700.
Below are the support levels to watch
Support 1 47700
Support 2 46600
BANKNIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 24 Feb 2024BANKNIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 24 Feb 2024
Bullish-Above 48310
Invalid-Below 48200
T- 48755
Bearish-Below 47890
Invalid-Above 48000
T- 47300
BANKNIFTY has closed almost on a flat note today. It opened with a big gap and was sold into immediately like yesterday. 10 o'clock range was to be used as per setup but index did not break out any side. It traded inside 200 points range majority of the day. Index may test half bat PRZ or 0.58 if it breaks 47890 tomorrow. 47300 can act as an intraday support tomorrow. Above 48090 bulls will try to take charge but 48300 will be bullish trigger.
Coming to Wednesday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 48300 then we will long for the target of 48755.
For selling we need a 15 Min candle close below 47890. T- 47300.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range (5MIN). Trade on this range breakout.
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I am Not SEBI Registered
This is my personal analysis for my personal trading. Kindly consult your financial advisor before taking any actions based on this.
22 Apr - BankNifty also goes neutral, on further gains -ATH nextBankNifty Analysis — Stance Neutral ➡️
The show on BankNifty was sponsored by HDFC Bank which had its quarterly results declared over the weekend. The sharp gap-up opening and then falling to close the gap were all attributed to the price action of HDFCBK.
Despite the elephant losing 1.25% today, BN managed to close in strong GREEN. BN also managed to defend the 47465 support so decently that it too commanded a stance change from Bearish to Neutral.
48103 looks like an interim resistance above which BN could keep up the momentum to even take out the ATH. If we look back at the events that happened from 15th Apr, just notice how quickly the indices are managing to gain back the grounds they ceded. US indices like SPX and NDQ are yet to reverse but see how Indian indices are optimistic.
For tomorrow we wish to start with a neutral stance and then add on bullish positions if the momentum gains.
BankNifty Algos managed to end the day with a gain of Rs31488.
Bank Nifty Analysis for 22-04-2024BNF is trading near the one hour timeframe support of 46600. As mentioned in my previous analysis, BNF took the support of 46600 zone and reversed. If BNF sustains below 46600 we can expect a further fall till its immediate support.
If BNF moves upward we will have a immediate resistance of 47750.
Below are the resistance levels to watch
Resistance 1 47750
Resistance 2 48250
Resistance 3 49000
If BNF moves downward and breaks the major support at 46600. We can expect a fall till 46000.
Below are the support levels to watch
Support 1 46000
Support 2 46000
Banknifty prediction for today 19 APR 24As we discussed, Banknifty has been falling for the last four sessions.
If we look at the charts:
The market is reaching near the support trendline, which is going to provide a potential support zone for Banknifty.
if we look at the OI:
PCR = 0.67 shows the market is in a bearish phase. 47000 is going to provide a good support zone as it has good PE writing and also a logical level of support. On the higher side, above 47500, there is good CE writing at each level.
If we look at the FII & DII data , FII is strong, and bearish clients are bullish, which shows the market is going to open a gap-down.
The market should open a gap down. If the Mmarkettakes support near 46500, then a bullish comeback might be seen in the market
Reasons:
Price < EMAs shows the market is in a bearish phase. And bears are strong.
RSI < 40 shows strong bears' power. (Bearish)
PCR = 0.67, which has been falling rapidly from 1.34. shows bears are actively increasing their position size. (Bearish)
Price < VWAP shows a bearish market structure. (Bearish)
The war situation is also having a negative impact on the market. (Bearish)
Verdict : Bearish
Plan of action : Sell 47000 PE (Hedge with 15/- PE premium)
Bank Nifty Analysis for 19-04-2024BNF is trading near the 1hour timeframe support of 47000. As mentioned in my previous analysis, once the ascending channel pattern was broken in 1 day time frame BNF took the support of 47000 zone and reversed. Still BNF is trading between zones of 47000 & 47400.
It is to be noted that BNF has fall 2000 points from its ATH in this week.
If BNF moves upward we will have a immediate resistance of 47750.
Below are the resistance levels to watch
Resistance 1 47750
Resistance 2 48250
If BNF moves downward and breaks the major support at 47000. We can expect a fall till 46600.
Below are the support levels to watch
Support 1 46600
Support 2 46000
18 Apr - BankNifty Algos did well as it was not expiry todayBankNifty Analysis — Stance Bearish⬇️
“The power of a strong support/resistance zone will help you in your technical analysis” — Anonymous.
See what happened today, BN started strong and was keeping its head above the 47465 support for a long time. Between 10.19 to 10.31, there was an attempt to break this SR, but it failed. BN reclaimed the 47700 levels and was coasting perfectly when the flash crash happened. Between 13.23 to 13.27, BN gave away 557pts ~ 1.17% also ensuring the SR breach.
By 13.39, the breach was confirmed and BN continued its downward moves. A session low of 46982 was hit at 15.15 post which we had a 240+ pts recovery.
The last 4 candles on the 63mts TF are all red and the support of 47465 has yielded. I am yet to mark the next support level, which I will do by tomorrow. I wish to hold on to my bearish view for tomorrow as well.
The Algo on BN was in good shape till the 13.23 impact took away the gains. Ended the day with a loss of 40,724.
15 Apr - BN 47465 has to be taken out for strong bearishness⬇️BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️
BN had a unique price action today, unlike N50 we did not see a bounce from the banks. And the lows made during the closing hours were much deeper than the opening lows. Whereas Nifty's opening low was not violated that much. Ideally, that is expected, the subsectors would fall further than the main index.
I am revising the stance on BankNifty to bearish not because of technical reasons - but due to Nifty50's bearishness + worsening global macro. Ideally, BN will have to take out 47465 to go bearish, which I suppose may be done within the opening hours of tomorrow.
Banknifty weekly expiry analysis for 16/04/24.The market has reacted to the war situation and has given a fall of around 800 points.
Banknifty has taken support from the 20 ema on the daily charts and the support zone around 47740 level.
Even on the hourly charts, the market is trading between both the moving averages and chances of taking support around 200 ema is there.
Tomorrow is weekly expiry and there is chance of a trending expiry move in the market as last few expiry were side ways.
Major support level :- 47750, 47400.
The market is looking bearish and the closing is below 38.2% fib levels. 50% fib level can be tested and a support around the level can be seen.
If there is a gap down opening, a recovery can be seen as many will be booking profits. Flat opening and a break down in the second half can keep the market trending.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
Banknifty and nifty option tradesPlease follow levels and try to learn there is nothing like holy grail in this market , your skill will make you profitable so work on your skill , money will automatically follow.
Banknifty prediction for tomorrow 12 Apr 24As we discussed Banknifty, Banknifty opened a gap up and then ended sideways.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading at the resistance zone. It has successfully respected the 4H-TH resistance zone, and a significant sale was made in the last 30 minutes. Banknifty gave very nice bull momentum last week. The market needs to consolidate (or correct) at this point. RSI is also showing bearish divergence.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 1.08 (1.18 -> 1.08), which indicates Bears are increasing their position in the market.
49000 will be acting as Max-Pain. There is not much resistance on the upper side till 49500. the lower side's next best support is 48500.
If we see FII & DII data , FII is strongly bullish on the future. Pros and Clients are Bearish on the future. Options data is indecisive, which shows that the market is likely to open sideways.
I expect the market to be sideways or bearish.
Reasons:
Price >> EMA(200), that need to be corrected. EMA(13) slop is getting flat. Which indicates bulls are getting weak.
RSI = 55 and having bearish divergence. Also, RSI is entering the 40-60 range, which might lead it to go sideways.
BN is trading in the resistance zone. And Fib 1.414.
PCR = 1.08, which has been falling from 1.34-> 1.18-> 1.08, which shows bears are increasing their positions in the market continuously.
Verdict : Sideways or Bearish
Plan of action : Sell 49000 CE and 48600 PE (Hedge it with 20/-)
49000 PE 16th April ContractAlways remember option is a zero sum game, so please follow strict stoploss, never trade option buying without Stop loss, or hedge position.
48900 CE 16th April Contract Always remember option is a zero sum game, so please follow strict stoploss, never trade option buying without Stop loss, or hedge position.
Banknifty prediction for tomorrow 10 Apr 24As we discussed in our last analysis, the market faced resistance from 49960. (Near Fib 1.414)
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading at ATH. Also, the market is facing resistance in the resistance zone(1H-TF). The market is also showing a Bullish divergence that will force the market to be in the bull's favor. 49000 is a very strong level of resistance. So, the market is likely in the range of 48549-49000.
All important levels are marked on the chart.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 1.18 shows bullish sentiments. There is huge CE unwinding at lower levels(48500, 48600) but normal CE writing at higher levels. 48800, 48900, and 49000 had good CE writing. Whereas 48500 is good PE writing. So, 48500 is going to provide good support, and the market is going to face multiple resistance at 48800, 48900, and 49000.
If we look at the FII & DII data:
FII is bullish; the Client is bearish.
I am expecting a gap-up open and then fall from 48950.
Reasons:
PCR = 1.18 indicates a bullish structure. (Bullish)
The market is trading in a resistance zone. There is a high probability that the market will take a pullback here till the Fib 0.38 level. (Bearish)
Price >> 200EMA and 13EMA >> 200 EMA that might lead to a correction in the market. (Bearish)
RSI is showing bullish divergence, which might force the market to be sideways. (Sideways)
Price < VWAP means the market is in the bears' favor.
Verdict : Sideways or Bearish
Plan of action :
Sell 49000 CE and Sell 48600 PE (Hedge with 20/- premium)
Exit either side, and it breaks.
09 Apr - BankNifty is structurally more Bullish than Nifty50BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️
BankNifty does an inverted V pattern today due to which the Algos went negative. Was quite happy that the losses were contained in the end, but what I learned is that sharp rises & falls take out the stop losses at both ends. And what is the end result? We are treading nowhere.
On the higher timeframe, BN looks more bullish than Nifty. Just like we discussed yesterday, only if we take a pause and retrace a few points - we can mark the higher high. Since the 11th is a holiday due to Ramadan, both Nifty and BankNifty will have the expiry tomorrow.
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Algo Trading
The trades ended today with a loss of -18294. There is no way the Algos can defend a V or an inverted V shape. The best I could do was firefight the same manually, but I decided otherwise.
49100 PE 10th April 2024Please follow levels , Step by step , we uses RSI 65, It clears most of the noises.