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Bankniftypostmortem

21 Feb ’24 — BankNifty is bullish as long as its > 46886 ⬆️⬆️⬆️BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Although BankNifty created a double top (M pattern) on the 4 mts time frame today, the stance is still bullish. The reason we did not change the stance for BN even though we downgraded N50 was that BN did not even test the support level today. Despite the selling pressure on all other counters, the Banks did not attempt to re-enter the bearish channel nor break the trendline. Ideally, it had to fall below 46833 to go into a bearish zone and today’s low was 46886. We know a 50pts margin is not that adequate, but when we switch to a higher time frame chart - you may agree with us. 4mts chart If you look at the chart below, even after adjacent RED candles, BN is still above the blue trend line. Tomorrow’s opening 63 minutes is very crucial as the major reason why BN did not participate in the fall today could be attributed to expiry day trades. When the selling came, the volumes of the top 4 banks had spiked accidentally revealing that it could be the start of something big. We guess the torch-bearer status of BankNifty has to be kept on the back burner as NiftyIT is calling the shots now. February is proving to be equally volatile as January 2024. Both the indices are now hunting for the stop losses and it seems like the ATM non-directional traders are going through another drawdown phase. For tomorrow we wish to start the day with a bullish bias and not get into any aggressive bets. Will wait for the first 63mts candle to appear and then take things from there. If we stay below the blue trend line - the status would be changed to neutral immediately. 63mts chart — Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with gains of 11395. We booked the profits early i.e. by 11.34. Would have to backtest and find out tomorrow if our decision to prematurely exit was worth it or not. Yesterday also we exited prematurely and the backtests proved we made the right choice.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
20 Feb ’24 — Stance revised to bullish for BankNifty ⬆️⬆️⬆️BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Yesterday we discussed the possibility of HDFC Bank making a move and quite fortunately that came true today. We rallied an impressive 769pts ~ 1.66% today to take out the first resistance (bearish trendline break). Would you believe the elephant jumped 2.63% today along with AXIS Bank 2.41%, Kotak Bank 1.8%. ICICI Bank & SBI was not that stimulated today, even then we managed to rally hard today. Notice the blue-encircled regions where we spent time today trying to break out. The momentum from 14.03 to close was the main and the only reason we had that break through today, otherwise we would have spent the time following the resistance slope. 4mts chart On the higher timeframe, the break above the bearish channel is loud and clear. But we are below the 47465 resistance line (orange color). Since we have an expiry tomorrow and because BN attained the bullish stance today, we expect those levels to be tested and broken by tomorrow itself. Being in trading, we cannot always remain optimistic and expect things to happen our way - that's why we engineer stop losses and fix reversal levels. In case something like that happens tomorrow, we will see if the bears are keeping BN below the blue channel line - if yes, we will reverse our stance back to neutral and wait for the next trigger. 63mts chart Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs6904. We stopped the algo at 14.24 as a breakout was looking imminent. We will have to backtest it tomorrow to see if it was the right decision.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
19 Feb ’24 — BankNifty is still not bullish, 47016 has to break.BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Even though the 4mts chart looks bullish as the moving averages have a positive slope, the reality is quite different. BankNifty has not managed to find the fire to go “BOOM BOOM”, it is totally lazy and lethargic at its current levels. Today we ended up gaining 150 points ~ 0.32% but a few of the major banks like HDFC Bank, Kotak, and AXIS were not that excited. ICICI on the other hand was totally on another orbit today. If you look at the chart below you can see the fear of heights (blue markers). The best way to get through is with a mega gap-up, which will force the weak hands to run for cover. 4mts chart Make no mistake, BN has rallied 2094 points ~ 4.69% from the recent swing low. But visually that rally is not bullish yet, that is because the time factor is at play. BN is very near the top of the bearish channel. A break above 47016 and then 47465 will give it sufficient momentum to surge through. The biggest factor that is holding up is HDFC Bank which has fallen after its results. We guess the bulls are waiting for HDFCBK to regain its footing so that the index itself can break free. The only way Nifty can get past 22500 is with the help of BankNifty. We do not remember the last time where Nifty50 kept making new highs without the support of BN. 63mts chart Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs3793.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
16 Feb ’24 — BankNifty will have to support N50 next week for ⬆️BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ The move BankNifty made did not correlate with Nifty50 today. BN’s gap-up was sold into and then we recovered once the gap was closed. Yes, there was no selling pressure which was common to both. The straddles on BN were progressing better than expected when we had a quick surge and an equivalent fall between 13.31 and 14.11. We assume it may be connected with a news/event that broke about Paytm & selection of any of the banks for its payment settlements. 4mts chart On the higher timeframe, you can notice how BN is making progress to its next resistance level of 47465. Since it is inside a descending (but not parallel) channel, it need not even break the resistance for a stance revision to bullish. All it has to do is take out the 47016 levels soon and break the upper end of the channel. Since Nifty50 has made its intention clear to go long, BankNifty willingly or not would have to support that cause. We wish to maintain a neutral stance till then and go bullish as and when the conditions specified are fulfilled. 63mts chart Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a gain of 3835 points.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
15 Feb ’24 — BankNifty has to scale above 47016 to go bullishBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty also does not get a stance revision today, but the progress it has made in the bullish direction is commendable. The first thing it did today was to defend the descending trendline (see encircled region). And from there it almost followed a steady 45-degree climb - showing strength. Except for the first 45 minutes, we did not have a selling pressure or a bear attack. It seems like the bears had thrown in the towel yesterday itself. 4mts chart In the 63mts chart, BN’s ability to defend the support is second to none. The only reason it is stuck in the neutral zone is because of the bear attack it had on 17th Jan. We are almost getting to those levels now. BankNifty’s contribution is very crucial to help Nifty’s next move. Since N50 is waiting to go bullish, a mere push from BN will give a multiplier effect due to the weightage it carries. For tomorrow we wish to start the day with a neutral stance and go bullish only of 47016 trend line is getting broken. 63mts chart Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a loss of Rs3190
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
14 Feb ’24 — BankNifty takes out the resistance and goes neutralBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty does the impossible today, the reason we are saying this is because, despite a UP day yesterday, BN was unable to get past the resistance of 45399. See what happened today - we opened gap-down and by 10.55 we were back at the resistance level of 45399. The rejection made sense then as the mood was still bearish and little we did know what the remainder of the day had in store. The elongated encircled region is when BN was still negotiating in and around the SR level. Once it got past that - the next test was at the purple descending trend line (which we drew yesterday). That was also kind of accurate as on 3 instances we had a contact. 4mts chart The climb of 670pts from 14.07 to 14.39 made all the difference today. It drove our algo into a tailspin and ensured that we booked the highest intraday loss till now. You might already know most algos prefer to play straddle or strangles and today being the expiry day created more trouble. The calls when sold were damn cheap and when the stop loss got hit - it appreciated more than 100 to 200%. Yesterday we pointed out the unusual skew in the PUT and CALL premiums, the calls staying cheap. Today we fell victim to that. 63mts chart We have another W pattern today and since the resistance is breached, it is a good sign for the bulls. Overall our stance is now revised to neutral from bearish. What is more interesting is that BN has a perfect at-par close with the last expiry i.e. 7th Feb. The first thing we will be looking out for tomorrow is to see if there is follow-up buying or whether what we witnessed today was just a blip. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a loss of 11805.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
12 Feb ’24 BankNifty breaks a support, stance changed - BEARISHBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ We expected BankNifty to stay neutral today after what it did in the last session. Just to recap, BN broke through the resistance of 45399 last session and ended the day near the highs. We were expecting that momentum to continue today also as Banks had no inherent weakness to start with. But what happened today was unexpected - the swing range was a whopping 1118pts ~ 2.44%. And today’s low took out the last session’s swing low as well. 4mts chart If you notice the encircled region, once BN broke the support of 45399 - it attempted to go up but failed miserably. That was the exact phase where we understood that the Bears may overpower the Bulls. We fell 715 points ~ 64% right from those levels. So in case you got into the bearish stance late in the day - you would have still ended up the day in pretty good greenery. 63mts chart 44542 support level is quite near and BN tested 44633 levels ~ 91pts away. If the Bears are still in form tomorrow, we should expect the 44542 to be taken out in the forenoon session tomorrow. The next level in play would be the most important 44068 levels. We wish to start the day tomorrow with a bearish stance and take up short opportunities as and when it present itself. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a loss of 2538 points.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
09 Feb ’24 — BankNifty defends the 45399 level, boosting bulls BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty defends the 45399 level with so much ease today. After witnessing the rout yesterday, we seriously thought BN would take longer than usual to recover the lost ground. Do you remember the discussion we had about the 2 strong RED candles before breaking the 45399 levels yesterday? Today’s counter move made them look insignificant. 4mts chart The intraday low was hit in the first candle itself and from that point, we had an intraday rally of 854pts ~ 1.91%. The closing was with so much strength and rightly so as once we broke through the 45399 resistance - BN bulls got so much hope & enthusiasm. Notice the encircled region and how we spent the time around the SR level before breaking out. The green candles were getting stronger with every iteration. 63mts chart The last candle of today forms perfectly above the 45399 confirming the break. This nullifies yesterday’s fall and we are back into the neutral territory. For Monday we need to look for non-directional trades again and would only go short if the support breaks. To go LONG we have quite a distance to cover as just beating 46800 would not suffice. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a gain of 217pts. If you look at the chart below - you can see how difficult it was for the system to handle the reversals today.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
07 Feb ’24 — BankNifty needs to go above 46800 for stance changeBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Unfortunately, BankNifty has not gotten a stance upgrade yet, we still are in neutral territory. Only if we get past 46800 - the stance can be revised. Our opening minutes were almost there ~ 46062 levels but we quickly lost ground. In total, we gave up 439pts ~ 0.95% from the highs - but this was not scary or unusual - it is just that a single 4mts candle at 11.31 stands out, it took out 109pts ~ 0.24%. 4mts chart Till then BankNifty was looking quite okay with a gradually falling bias, that candle would have woken up the straddle sellers as their stop losses would have hit. If they kept the other leg open till the last minute, quite sure that would have given a scare too. Finally, we ended the day positively with a net gain of 127pts ~ 0.28%. The intraday day recovery of 317pts really helped BN gain back its lost ground to an extent. 63mts chart Between the last expiry and today - we have just lost 0.12% ~ 53pts which is not significant at all. But what is more important is that the support of 45399 is defended properly. As we drew the IH&S yesterday - we need a close above 46800 for strong bullish momentum to pick up and most likely that should help us take out the 47465 resistance as well. Will it happen tomorrow? Not sure. Will it happen in the next expiry? We would like to place our bets. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with gains of 8204 rupees. The 11.31 stunt took away some gains, but we gained back the lost ground as further trades were not violent.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
06 Feb ’24 — Head and Shoulders Inverse forming on BankNifty?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Is BankNifty bearish? - absolutely not. Is it bullish? It's too early to say. One thing is sure - there is some weakness impacting the banks. Are the unsecured loans haunting them? None of the balance sheets from the quarterly results are bleeding - but something is still bothering them. Today was a fine day for the banks to support Nifty’s rally - still, the banks decided to stay on the bench. 4mts chart One thing is sure, the fall looks like arrested (for now). If Nifty takes out the ATH without the support of the banks again, then it is some indication that the Information Technology players may have taken over as the new torch-bearers. There are exactly 6 NiftyIT companies in Nifty50 as there are 6 banks in BankNifty. NiftyIT weight is 14.18% vs 33% of BankNifty - definitely, BN has lost some ground and IT has gobbled it. 63mts chart The perfect Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern has not formed yet - we still have 20% of the move remaining. We will closely monitor if BN chooses to follow this path as it is a bullish sign. The first clue came in when BN defended its support at 44542, the 2nd came when 45399 was defended. Tomorrow is the weekly expiry and we hope to see some actions - at present, the OTM strikes are not that juicy - if BN decides to move, we could expect some mispricings to pop in. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs8121.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
05 Feb ’24 — BankNifty's total day's move done in first 5mtsBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty was more flattish today even though the chart pattern shows a bearish tinge. We lost 145pts ~ 0.32% today, but if a trader got into a straddle position after the first candle - it would have ended quite perfectly today. This means that the net loss for the banknifty was decided in the opening 4 or 5 minutes and the remainder of the day was just spent fooling around. 4mts chart If we extrapolate it from the previous day’s pattern it looks bearish. But if we extend it to the last few days - it's all neutral. As long as BN is between 45399 and 47465 - we are in for a perfect range-bound trade. The moment one of them gives away - we can see the pressure releasing and a strong trend developing. We need to note that Nifty was unable to break from a range-based trade in the last 47 days, as the count of the days goes up - the higher will be the breakout/breakdown momentum. 63mts chart Most importantly BankNifty will have to be its torch bearer. Looking at the charts right now - BN is pretty unsure which way to swing. There were some bright RED candles in the last 3 week’s action and possibly things are facing south. Whereas Nifty is looking northbound. As long as this tug-of-war stays, none of them breaks free. The best option for the bears is to take out the support of 45399 via gap-down tomorrow and then hope the shorts will mount. We wish to maintain our neutral stance till something materializes. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs5500
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
02 Feb ’24 — There is something bothering the Banks, is it PayTMBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty surprises everyone today, the meltdown first started in the banks and persisted in the banks. Nifty was near the ATH - understandable, but BankNifty is a long way from its top - so the fear of highs could not be the reason for the fall today. The price action showed something deeper is troubling the banks - is it the PayTM & RBI tussle to be blamed? Or are the unsecured short-term small-amount loans turning RED? 4mts chart Anyway, the big-boys know it better than us and soon we will all know. Unfortunately from a technical analysis perspective, we cannot plan for these events. Today’s price action shows a big RED, but a week’s data looks neutral. 63mts chart Just when BN was trying to recover from the blow on 17th and 23rd Jan, we got the RED today. The recovery from 25th Jan via bouncing off the support looked promising and when the 45399 resistance was cut through - our hopes got pinned for a bullish comeback. The charts however still show neutral trade possibilities and the support of 45399 and resistance of 47465 as the first hurdle for a directional trend.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
01 Feb & 31 Jan ’24 - N50 might look at BankNifty for directionsBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty has made some interesting patterns on the 16mts TF. It looks like BN made quick surges to a specific price level and then cooled off softly. Much like a mini-flag pattern. BankNifty may be showing signs of going up if that is the case. We can only confirm if the next resistance of 47465 is broken - and if that happens tomorrow, then the game is set. 16mts chart The biggest issue is the kind of selling the banks had from the FII’s basket. That factor is still haunting BankNifty pretty badly. The depth of the RED candles proves that point. When we have selling of that sort, we would need a strong response from the domestic buyers to go up. Meanwhile, if the DIIs are stalling - we may see further price corrections from here. 63mts chart BankNifty is the go-to leader for directional trends, it should hold good in the current situation also. First, the BN has to move clearly in a direction, most likely Nifty will follow. BN still holds 38% of the weight on Nifty. For tomorrow we would like to start with a neutral stance and then adapt if Banks show some traction.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
30 Jan ’24 — BankNifty was not interested in N50s price actionBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Strange-looking 1st and 2nd candles and then a flat price action all through the day. It is quite commendable that Nifty’s bearish ghosts did not haunt BankNifty today. Even though we closed just below the SR zone of 45399 - the price action did not give a clear clue if it was bearish or bullish. 4mts chart Maybe BankNifty was in a wait-and-watch mode, allowing Nifty to decide on the direction first and then follow suit. For the straddlers, it was a field day today as the flat price action would have given most of them good gains. 63mts chart BankNifty cannot stay flat like this tomorrow and the day after. We have the expiry tomorrow and the Budget announcement on 1st February. Most likely Nifty will pick a direction soon and 99/100 BankNifty will align itself with the broader trend. Our neutral stance continues for tomorrow, but we are quite excited to see the option premium spikes during closing minutes today. The first thing BN has to ensure tomorrow is to reject the 45399 resistance and then hope the Bears score their goal. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a profit of 1617 per lot
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
29 Jan ’24 — A flag like formation on 63mts TF - BankNiftyBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty also gets a stance upgrade - from bearish to neutral. The price action was not as beautiful as Nifty50 today. One reason would be the outlier performance by Reliance today +7%, whereas the main weightlifters for BankNifty were HDFCBK 1.38%, Kotak +3.08%, ICICBank 0.64%. 4mts chart The support/resistance of 45399 was in play today and it proved quite sticky. Although BN got to this level by 09.31 - we never had a strong breakout today. On the 4mts TF it appears we broke the resistance between 09.59 to 11.15 - but it was not strong enough as we fell back to it by 11.19. On a close-to-close basis, BankNifty gained an impressive 576pts ~ 1.28% but the charts do not signify a bullishness yet. 63mts chart The pattern formed today more or less looks like a flag formation - so the bullishness could come at any moment. BankNifty has a lot of catching up to do, so the run could get quite wild too. If the FII selling in HDFCBK has ended, it could be a good relief to the Bulls. We have changed the stance from bearish to neutral as BN has defended the 44542 support & is just above the 45399 SR. The moment we break these supports, we will go back to bearish mode. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a loss of 608 rupees per lot
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
24 Jan ’24 — BN still looks bearish to me, will it go neutral?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ The stance of BankNifty continues to be bearish as it was nothing like the Nifty today. The major reason is the rejection of resistance at 45399. After opening near the support level of 44542, BN made a quick surge to the resistance of 45399 by 09.59. The rejection came by 10.43 and that RED candle spoke for itself. 4mts chart We started falling and BN went underwater again by 11.27. Interestingly BN made a W pattern on the 4mts chart today - but it means nothing if the resistance is not taken out. 63mts chart The first candle steals all the show today - its low right at the support of 44542, its high right at the resistance of 45399. Nifty will not be that strong in the upward direction until BN joins it. Right now N50 is neutral and BN is bearish. To lose bearishness, BN has to take out the resistance and close near 46151. Since both BN and N50 have expiry tomorrow, it will be an option sellers day as the premiums will be juicy enough.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
23 Jan ’24 — Almost 1700pts fall + Support break - Bear Attack?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ Banknifty fell an unbelievable 1696pts ~ 3.64% from the HOD to the LOD. As usual, the gap-up of 472pts would have painted the wrong picture today especially when the Traders came ready to play ICICI on the long side. Never in the day, we got a bullish signal today - it was a one way journey from that gap-up to the low of the day. 4mts chart The candle right at the support level of 45399 was the strongest - 215pts fall. This shows the strength the big-boys exerted today to create momentum. Were FIIs pissed off that we made them work on a Saturday? Both Nifty and BankNifty have the same stance (bearish) similar to the one we had on 17th Jan. When Both the indices are in the same direction, it should be a treat to watch. 63mts chart The next support comes at 44542 followed by 44068. The odd thing is that Global markets are so positive except China and Hong-Kong. And we do not have any bad local macro news except for the Sony-Zee saga and Govt. decision to increase the import duty on Gold & Silver. We strongly feel these positions are for the Budget 2024, If you have a better valid point - do mention it in the comments below. Also, we do not have an expiry tomorrow as both BN and N50 will have the monthly expiry on 25th. Strangely in Jan month, BankNifty’s last working day is the 31st on which it has a weekly expiry, but its monthly expiry is on 25th because Nifty’s on 25th. Some things you see only in India.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
20 Jan ’24 — Will Quarterly results help the BankNifty bulls?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ For some or the other reason, the 4mts & 63mts charts are not visible on TradingView. It may be due to this unscheduled working day and they might be facing issues with data feeds from vendors. We had a bearish view yesterday also and despite BN ending the day today with 357pts ~ 0.78% we are still maintaining the bearish stance. 16mts chart A shallow support and resistance zone has formed between 45609 and 46025. The first critical support is unchanged at 45399 and the critical resistance at 47465. BankNifty was single-handedly responsible for limiting the losses on Nifty today - so we need to give due credit for that. But take a look at the chart - The fall from 48000+ levels did not just come because HDFCBK had poor results, it may be unwinding by FIIs considering the fiscal policy changes or reforms expectations for Budget 2024. So even if we have super duper results like the KOTAKs and ICICIs - we may not scale up that quickly. Honestly, we prefer if BN could reclaim the ATHs and support Nifty to crawl back into the channel. The US market hit a new ATH yesterday - SPX and the mood is euphoric.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
19 Jan ’24 — Are you ready for the BANKEX expiry tomorrow?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ The stance for BankNifty was bearish yesterday and it is still bearish today. The highs and lows of today were more or less matching with the levels of yesterday. Visually the price action is more negative than yesterday, the reason being the highs hit today were due to gap-up whereas yesterday’s high was via fighting it out during trading hours. 4mts chart From the highs to the lows today, there was a swing range of 688 points. Just that the gap-up hides this in plain sight, after all the index closed flat at -0.03%. The change in holiday schedule is going to impact BankNifty the most as BANKEX expiry which was on Monday will have to be conducted tomorrow. Quite sure the traders were not prepared for this event and the opening minutes could create some chaos. We are not even sure if the technical analysis will work out tomorrow. 63mts chart Look at the encircled region - all RED candles. How many analysts do you know who would say these many consecutive red candles are a bullish sign? None. Despite this, BankNifty could move up tomorrow as the news flow of holiday change was not priced in. BANKEX has a close correlation with BankNifty and logically traders would use the opening minutes to build expiry positions tomorrow. Since FIIs were not informed, they would come tomorrow unprepared. If there is sanity tomorrow and BankNifty starts moving downwards - the first level to watch out for is 45399. To go bullish - it has to climb 1765 points.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
18 Jan ’24 — BankNifty bounces of from the support @ 45399 😔BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ What happened with BankNifty today was more or less as per the script. The opening 4mts gave us some idea of what to expect, the reason being the bounce from 45399 support. Even though the opening was gap-down, adequate selling pressure was not there to take out the support level. Ideally, it had to be taken out via the gap itself - and that did not happen. 4mts chart BN impressed with a midday rally of 747pts to close the gap. Later it gave away 58% of those points to close at 45762, down 350pts ~ 0.76% vs yesterday. We would not know how long this correction phase persist, deep down - we prefer to see a broader bear rally. There is a thing or two about the bear market. Have you seen videos of how Bear catches fish in the river? It goes to those areas called rapids where the Fish has to jump to escape the current. The bear has to just stand at those levels with his mouth wide open - the fish automatically goes straight in as it cannot maneuver mid-air. Bear market price action is more or less similar - the retail traders are helpless and out of the driving seat. If they survive, it will just be at the mercy of the big boys. 63mts chart The stance is still bearish and the first target is 45399 and it has to be taken out pretty soon. The longer we wait out, the dip buyers will re-emerge. Other support areas nearby are 44542 and 44068 - if the momentum carries, then we should be testing them this month itself.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
17 Jan ’24 — BankNifty & Nifty are both bearish now - Consensus BankNifty Weekly Analysis Between the last expiry and today, BankNifty has fallen 1274 points ~ -2.69%. It may not look so dangerous, but keep in mind we had a swing range of 2328pts ~ 4.82% between the high to the low of the week. Of these 2328pts, 2060pts ~ 88.4% came just today. 16mts chart BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ We opened 1423pts ~ -2.96% gap down today. The first 2 candles were green showing some fightback to reclaim the 47465 S/R which we just broke. BankNifty’s support break was the major highlight anyway - It was right below the bullish trend line and above the bearish trend line yesterday. The breakdown from there was the real impact. 4mts chart The option prices were absolutely crazy, especially on the CALL side. The premiums remained elevated right till 15.00. The PUT options on the other hand (far OTM) had given up the premiums even though it had some unusual surge in the opening minutes. Most of the traders would not have capitalized on the premium spike as by the time they punched the orders, the premium would have evaporated. 63mts chart The price action today paves the way for further downward action. Primarily both Nifty and BankNifty are in the same stance (bearish) and secondly, N50 has just violated the ascending channel whereas BN steered clear on 1st Jan. The biggest issue is that the next support comes at 45399 followed by 44542 and both indicate steep cuts.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
16 Jan ’24 — BankNifty is < bullish & > bearish trendline ➡️BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty was sailing smoothly till 12.59 today when it fell below a weak trend line. Till then it was holding its end of the bargain when the sectors around it were falling, most noticeably NiftyIT. Yesterday we changed the stance of BN from neutral to bullish - but we did not get the required pump-up today, hence we are reverting back to the neutral stance. 4mts chart BN fell close to 302pts ~ 0.63% between 12.03 and 13.35 - it was during this phase that it breached the shallow trend line. Even though that trend line is insignificant in the grand scheme of things, it may be more than enough to discourage the weak bulls. Surprisingly, BN did not fall below the 47996 zone which would have meant pure bearishness. 63mts chart The chart may look complex with many lines crisscrossing, but it is simple to understand. The line connecting 47010 to 48265 is the shallow trend line formed due to the bullish move from the 10th of Jan. The flatter downward-sloping line from the ATH & connecting the peaks is a bearish trend line. Right now BN is below the bullish line and above the bearish line, if it falls further we go into the bearish zone. If the chart felt too complicated - drop in a comment & we will be happy to help.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
15 Jan ’24 — BankNifty stance change from neutral to bullish 🐂BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ BankNifty also gets a stance upgrade from neutral to bullish today. After we crossed the 47539 resistance, its level as support never got tested. Today’s gap-up was not so visible for the banks - but the price action was more healthy. 4mts chart The stance change came only in the last 15 minutes or so when BankNifty started to shift the gears. 48250 was a level I was watching for. Even though we did not breach it today, the momentum banknifty showed in the last 1 hour was more than satisfactory to change the stance. 63mts chart The last candle made all the difference today, that is the secret ingredient for the change of stance. For tomorrow, the first thing BN has to do is take out the 48422 levels and if possible get a new ATH. The quarterly results from the component stocks will have a huge role to play. Look what the results of TCS, INFY, WIPRO, HCLTECH did to the NiftyIT sector - it almost went up 9% in the last 2 sessions.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram