Bankniftytrading
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 21 APR 2023Just a bit of negative bias today - nothing major to be worried about! Banknifty still has outperformed NSE:NIFTY this week. And trust me the chart of NSE:BANKNIFTY is looking strong.
Today we opened inline at 42252 had 2 strong green candles and then started falling. From 09.30 to 13.05 we fell 0.99% ~ 419pts - but the options premium did not surge exponentially. Since the India VIX is ~ 11.6 levels the fear in the markets are already at the lowest point.
Looking at the downfall momentum gaining traction at 12.05 just after yesterday's swing low was taken out, I felt we may fall below the 41600 level today. Unfortunately that did not happen & my wednesday's opinion now stands corrected.
Even after the fall today, bank nifty's chart is still showing bullishness, how the global trade happens today might have a role to play on Monday.
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15mts is now in a sideways range from 17th. 41968 to 42500 has been the swing this week if not for a blip highlighted in blue.
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This week's price action makes a flag & pole type of pattern (even though not perfect) on the 1hr TF. The chart is not showing any signs of slowing down. We hoped the 41624 support levels will get tested this week - but that scare is now out.
What will the bears do now?
Simple Trade Setup | BANKNIFTY | 19-04-2023 [INTRADAY]Flip zone: : This zone is such a zone which will work as resistance if price is below it. And it will work as support if price is trading above it.
Resistance zone: This zone will mainly work as resistance. Once price sustain above it then it is considered as breakout.
Support zone: This zone will mainly work as support. Once price sustain below it then it is considered as breakdown.
All other levels between zones are such a level that you can scalp from it , book partial/full profit and also use it as trailing SL.
Good trade setup with good Risk reward will be only if we enter from any of zone.
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Trade Setup for 19-04-2023
Most of all the levels and zones remains same as per previous.
1) Don't Jump in to trade at the beginning of the market. Let it get settle for 15-20min first and judge the price action.
2) Everything is mentioned on the chart. I hope it is easy to understand.
3) All the levels will work as support, resistance, entry and exit w.r.t price action near that level.
4) Avoid gap up or gap down chase. Wait and trade between levels.
Please refer below chart for levels.
Hope I made it easy to understand it.
Do comment your doubt or suggestion.
Note: Trade with Strict SL. It may or may not hit all the levels. So one can book profit / loss at respective level considering how price action works near that level. NSE:BANKNIFTY
Simple Trade Setup | BANKNIFTY | 18-04-2023 [INTRADAY]NSE:BANKNIFTY
Flip zone: : This zone is such a zone which will work as resistance if price is below it. And it will work as support if price is trading above it.
Resistance zone: This zone will mainly work as resistance. Once price sustain above it then it is considered as breakout.
Support zone: This zone will mainly work as support. Once price sustain below it then it is considered as breakdown.
All other levels between zones are such a level that you can scalp from it , book partial/full profit and also use it as trailing SL.
Good trade setup with good Risk reward will be only if we enter from any of zone.
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Trade Setup for 18-04-2023
Most of all the levels and zones remains same as per previous.
1) Don't Jump in to trade at the beginning of the market. Let it get settle for 15-20min first and judge the price action.
2) Everything is mentioned on the chart. I hope it is easy to understand.
3) All the levels will work as support, resistance, entry and exit w.r.t price action near that level.
4) Avoid gap up or gap down chase. Wait and trade between levels.
Please refer below chart for levels.
Hope I made it easy to understand it.
Do comment your doubt or suggestion.
Note: Trade with Strict SL. It may or may not hit all the levels. So one can book profit / loss at respective level considering how price action works near that level.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 17 APR 2023NSE:BANKNIFTY really held its cool today! During preopen INFY was showing an open rate of -10%, and everybody would have thought we are going to see a massive sell off today.
IT sector in total was in focus today as the INFY even though had not so bad results was quoting at 10% lower circuit. I think I saw it go down to 12.3 or 12.5% - since I do not track the IT index that closely, it did not really bother me.
However I was excited to see how bank nifty will react. You might be aware that a sell-off in IT will impact the banks the most. A recession or a job loss in IT would mean a lot of NPAs and loan defaults as IT employees are the main people who take exuberant loans at unbelievable valuations.
The opening chaos is very visible in the charts of NSE:HDFCBANK , NSE:ICICIBANK and NSE:AXISBANK . NSE:SBIN had a contradicting pattern and surged ahead. NSE:KOTAKBANK was least impacted- the opening volume was unusual and it had a bright day.
At 10.05 bank nifty secured its feet and then started climbing. So this blip stayed only 45mts and you would not believe how the price action from the last session continued today also.
The 45mts of downward fall was well negated by what followed. I guess the dip buyers were back and immensely supported for a close +130pts today.
It will also meaningful to showcase the Nifty50 chart also, since IT index took a huge beating today, it was visible in Nifty50. There was a recovery post 10.05, but the close was in red unlike the bank nifty.
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The options data also requires special mention today, both banknifty and finnifty options were unaffected by the volatility, the NSE:NIFTY options had a good ride today. At a point I saw VIX hovering around the +10%, seeing the recovery in banknifty, I was immediately convinced the best place to take an option trade was Nifty50 instead of BankNifty.
This makes an exciting week ahead. If there is further weakness in IT, it will spill over to the financial sector with a delay.
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15mts on Banknifty says the uptrend is intact and today's blip has made no special impact. We need a support break of 41624 to get some attention of the bears !
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1hr also looking promising for the bulls, the next resistance at 42576.
In fact in zerodha's TV chart a day high near this resistance level is visible, I am not sure why its missing in the TV chart directly. And today's price action rejection came at the resistance level only.
What will be Banknifty's next move?BN is moving explosively and to my surprise broke the 41650 level forcefully. This is the power of 3rd wave. Clearly 3rd is being extended and standing around 170.7 of 1st wave. From this level we can see some minor correction to 41900 level and then it may start it's upward journey again towards 42500 and even to 42850 level.
Sooner or later in a few days we may see a sizable correction (3rd wave correction) Now, what is your view? Please levev a comment.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 13 APR 2023 ExpiryWe will start with the weekly analysis first, that is what happened in the series 7th to 13th April. The revised format is to provide an executive summary per week. This will benefit you for further research.
Since 7th April was holiday, I have taken the closing price of 6th April as starting point. We had a 2.8% ~ 1148pts rally in this week. Let me zoom out and provide a perspective of what this means.
If you notice we had a breakout from the 41311 levels which was the swing high of 6th April. Also notice how we broke the channel upper band. The beauty of break-outs are that the final leap will be intense - notice how we moved 367pts just in the closing hour today.
The real momentum picked up once we crossed the 41624 level which was the swing high from 6th March 2023. Note the M like pattern formed then. And what followed from the was a fall to the 38690 level. From there bank nifty came back strongly & finally took out this resistance today.
One particular strike ie 42000 CE stands out today, let me pull its chart here
We had a rally of 3335% ie up 129pts from Rs4 today. The real power of options explained in just 1 strike!
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Coming back to the daily analysis now. Bank nifty opened at 41680 and fell for the first 5mts. From there it maintained a flattish pattern till 12.35 near the 41624 support/resistance zone.
It was quite clear that if we break out from this level we will have huge momentum. However I was still looking at the bearish side. My analysis made me think bearish & plan that way.
Once we started breaking out at 12.45 - there was no stopping. The momentum favored the breakout.
Even though I was inclined to take a bullish position, I did not. I simply did not have enough confidence and this is where the market wronged me.
As I stated earlier, 42000 CE was in my radar at 4.30 level - the magic by which it closed at 132 level still shocks me - an opportunity lost. For the option sellers who would have sold the 42500 CE and upwards never felt threatened as those strikes did not surge like the 42000 one.
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Now the 1hr chart is also screaming bullish, at least it is out of bear's hold for now. 41600 & 41800 both are safely breached.
As most stock markets are skewed in favor of the bulls i.e everyone wants the stock market to go up. So when we see out-performance more people will join in and add funds - the classic FOMO effect.
Since tomorrow is a holiday, we would need to wait for Monday to see further action. If we do not get any negative news from the global markets - bank nifty will be rocket-powered next week too.
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(13/04/2023) Today will be gap up opening in BANKNIFTY . After opening if banknifty sustain above 41550 level then possible upside rally of 400-500 points upto 41950 Level. And this rally can extend for another 400 points if it gives breakout of 42450 level. Any Major downside only expected in case banknifty starts trading below 41450 level & Also Reversal Posiblity in 41550 level.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 12 APR 2023NSE:BANKNIFTY held out to a perfect trend continuation from yesterday.
If we notice closely the pull backs were not strong enough to break the momentum. I sincerely thought we will have a reversal or a bearish day today and had taken PE debit spreads to capitalize.
If we analyze today's pattern closely NSE:BANKNIFTY took some time to take out the 41455 resistance. It was hanging around this SR zone for quite some time. Only at 13.20 did we break away from the area.
And once we broke that, banknifty started another leg of rally to the next resistance of 41624. Also notice the pullback from 13.40 to 14.55 gave it good confidence as the support of 41455 held.
Now why was I bearish - mostly I went with the contrarian decision to go short before the US CPI data. If you track the US markets you can see SPX is well above the bearish channel. This might give the US agencies to release a hotter CPI data as the markets will be ready to absorb it.
So I applied the same logic here, if we were to crash - then the 40800 to 40700 levels looks quite possible.
95% of traders would have made money, excluding people like me as the current situation is of a break-out. And you should always stick to the main trend to keep your pockets full of cash !
What I did today is to go against the trend, try to me a little adventurous.
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15mts trend is again favoring the bulls. I am so very sure 95% of traders will be looking out for bullish opportunity in bank nifty as the chart cries bullishness.
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On the 1hr chart, a resistance breach of 41624 is going to give bulls immense momentum. Last time we were at that level we had a double top M pattern formed i.e. on 6th and 9th March 2023. And then you know what happened - we fell all the way to the 38690 support level.
So tomorrow is going to be a very serious day to have either a decisive breakout from these levels or fall back to range. The jump on 31st March has made all the difference to this chart and has given the bulls a new hope.
#Banknifty"Trading day, April 12th: The global market indicates a neutral start with a bullish sentiment. If the initial market takes a sharp pullback, we can expect a rally continuation. and if the pullback takes place slowly and consolidates, that's a sign of distribution, and we can expect a correction when it rejects the major resistance zone. On the other hand, if the initial market declines sharply, we can expect a correctional wave. that should break fib level 38%. and if the market breaks 38%, then we can expect a minimum of 78% to the extension level of 1.27. or if the decline doesn't break 38%, that's a sign of a range market to rally continuation.
#BANKNIFTY - POSITIONAL VIEWThe Banknifty index has been demonstrating an upward trend on a daily basis, although at Damis Investments, we anticipate a potential short-term decline. This is attributed to the fact that the current momentum appears to be primarily driven by news rather than sound market fundamentals. As a means of substantiating our bearish stance, we would like to present you with key resistance levels that can be utilized to establish short positions. Notably, the Banknifty spot's significant resistance ranges from 41450-41650 and 41800-42000. Hence, one can take advantage of this opportunity to initiate a short position within the given range, targeting 40950-40750 with a small stop loss at 42100.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 11 APR 2023 Banknifty had a mega pre-open boost by NSE:KOTAKBANK , it was up 5% by 09.10 which indicated the bears will get their bones crushed today.
Contrary to the popular belief, Kotak bank has the 3rd most weightage to bank nifty above SBIN and NSE:AXISBANK even though kotak has lower net interest income. And today's 5% gap up due to the MSCI news spelled real trouble.
Bank nifty opened gap up at 41232 and had a massive 1st 5mts candle. There was a price swing of 297pts in the opening 5mts. What it created was a break away gap negating the downward sloping pattern from 6th. The jump in volumes also proved we had a sentiment shift too.
Was the MSCI news a big trigger - I do not think so, but it really helped the bulls breakout from the bearish grip. Also it would have spoiled few CE seller's Finnifty expiry.
There was also a healthy rally to take out the resistance at 41311, NSE:ICICIBANK , NSE:SBIN all helped to close bank nifty with a lead of 531pts.
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15mts is showing the break out quite decently. And this is formed above the channel top line which will give it good momentum.
Yesterday we discussed the possibility that the bears may want to take control and bring NSE:BANKNIFTY to the range - well, that is not going to happen very soon.
The last time we had a breakaway ie on 31 Mar 2023, the volume spiked. Today also the volume was considerably higher than usual.
And also note, the stock market is heavily skewed in favor of bulls. Everybody like to make money and push prices up. Only few people like me prefer to find contrarian trends - mostly on the bearish side.
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1hr is showing the trend channel breakout quite clearly. See the break away from the purple downward sloping line.
Till yesterday we had a hope to get trades below 40700 levels and stay in the bearish medium-term trend.
The only hope for bears now is to watch out for the US CPI data tomorrow. A massive sell off could bring back NSE:BANKNIFTY back to realistic levels of 40700 or lower.
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I will also be covering Finnifty charts on Tuesdays wherein we have the weekly expiry
NSE:CNXFINANCE has a similar chart to bank nifty, that makes it quite interesting to take expiry trades just as we do on Thursdays.
The W pattern indicated in blue highlight was formed in the same similar fashion.
Today's trade happened above the recent swing high ie from 06 Mar 2023, this again is a breakout style of trade. Just as when NSE:BANKNIFTY falls below the 40700 levels, we can expect finnifty to fall below the 18246 SR zone and continue its range trade.
But if that does not happen soon, then the only way we can look is to handle the bullish momentum.
Banknifty Future Intraday viewIf Banknifty Future rejects from 41080/41040 then one can short at the level with proper price action. Target-40835,40750, 40365
SL paid
Bank nifty may begin the day flatly positive and try to test 41040/41080. Expect some sideways movement and consolidation in this area. Keep an eye out for a move to 41224 if Bank Nifty maintains its position above 41150. Be cautious if Bank Nifty falls below 40750 as it may hit 40365 on the downside. So, anticipate a swing market today and employ the hit-and-run scalping method.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 10 APR 2023I am making some changes in the chart layout from today's report. It will be in white background going forward. This is after the feedback I got from the kindle publishing team that images with dark layout will look awkward when made into paperback.
note: I will still continue to use the dark-mode chart for my trading purpose, only for the reports I will be using the white-mode
NSE:BANKNIFTY opened today at 41116, it might look as a gap-up open but when the price action is considered it looks perfectly in line.
The entire market was quite subdued today, the option premium at the lowest when we compare an average Monday. The good-friday holiday might have played its part, but I still think the premiums were restrictive for any option sellers to have made money today.
I waited till 10.45 to find any mis-priced option, the moment I saw the premiums were all dead - I called it a day. I was just waiting on the sidelines just waiting for something to happen.
From 10.10 to 11.35 NSE:BANKNIFTY tested its first support at 40880 but did not break it. The rejection came at 11.40 when a short surge helped it gain 192pts.
The real move came from 12.45 to 14.15, in fact the 5mt candle at 14.15 had a bid dip. In spite of this the options premium hardly felt any threat. I am referring to OTM premiums which captures the threat more evidently.
Now we have the 40880 support broken decently as the close was below that level. The next support 40704 did not break today, below which the bears would have exerted some additional pressure.
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15mts TF does not look bearish yet, NSE:BANKNIFTY might be taking a small break before the bullish continuation.
It could also mean a short term top if the further trades are held below the current levels. Ideally this should be the case wherein the bears get some control on the market & drive up the premiums.
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1hr was in a perfect downward trend till the moves from 27 March 2023 to 06 April 2023 ruined it.
As it stands we have just entered back the top level of the descending channel. Further trades below this channel will give the bears lot of confidence to push down the bank-nifty prices & drive up the options premium.
The implied volatility which is staying so low is causing all the trouble for the option sellers.
FASP levels for Bank Nifty 11/04/2023The FASP for BankNifty is listed for 11-04-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
BankNifty-10/04/2023-LevelsHello Traders, Welcome to SriTrader5121
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BankNifty-10/04/2023-Levels
IMPORTENT ZONE FOR THE DAY : 40942 - 40973
Possibilities of Today market open...
Possibility 1: FLAT
If market open as a FLAT and moves to UP - SIDE then BUY with the Support of R and SELL with the Rejection of R.
(or)
If market open as a FLAT and moves to DOWN-Side then BUY with the Support of IMP and SELL with the Rejection of IMP.
Possibility : GAP-UP
If market open as a GAP-UP and moves to UP-Side then BUY with the Support of PDH and SELL with the Rejection of PDH.
(or)
If market open as a GAP-UP and moves to DOWN-Side then BUY with the Support of IMP and SELL with the Rejection of IMP.
Possibility 3: GAP-DOWN
If market open as a GAP - DOWN and moves to UP-Side then BUY with the Support of IMP and SELL with the Rejection of IMP.
(or)
If market open as a GAP-DOWN and moves to DOWN-Side then BUY with the Support of PDL and SELL with the Rejection of PDL.
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Happy Learning and Trading
Rules to fallow...
1) Trade with Strict Stop Loss.
2) Trade with Small Quantity.
3) Take entries based on Support & Resistance Levels.
Please take the trade according to the levels marked, with Risk-Reward.
This is not a Buy or Sell recommendation to anyone.
Take entries after your own analysis.
This is for education purpose and a helping hand to learn trading in market.
NOTE: Trade with Strict Stop Loss. It may or may not hit all levels. So one can book profit / loss at respective level considering how price action works near that level.
I hope you all like my analysis. Follow me to get regular updates.
Please do share your thoughts in comment section.
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SHORT FORM &FULL FORM
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0.5-> 0.5% Swing
PDH-> Previous Day High
PDL-> Previous Day Low
PDC-> Previous Day Close
PDO-> Previous Day Open
PWH-> Previous Week High
PWO-> Previous Week Open
PWC-> Previous Week Close
PWL-> Previous Week Low
D_S-> Day Support
D_R-> Day Resistance
W_S-> Week Support
W_R-> Week Resistance
W_O-> Week Open
W_C-> Week Close
LW_O-> Last Week Open
LW_C-> Last Week Close
IMP -> Important
R@1, R@2,R@3... ->Resistance-Zones
S@1, S@2,S@3... ->Support-Zones
MS -> Major Support
SH -> Swing-High
SL -> Swing-Low
DT -> Double Top
DB -> Double Bottom
TT -> Triple Top
TB -> Triple Bottom
TF -> Time Frame
BO -> Break-Out
RR -> Risk-Reward
SL -> Stop-Loss
GAP -> The area b/w Previous Day Close and Today Open
Blue Color Text(S@*,R@*)-> Act as Major Support or Resistance-Zones(Be Alert, Chances to Market take Reversals )