Banknifty trade plan for 17-05-2023- Banknifty trading below ATH resistance, since the trend is bullish, buy on dips is recommended
- However if price open gap down, then wait for price to take support from any zone marked on the chart
-Opening gap up will trigger resistance to turn into support, but sustaining above it will give momentum for the day
Bankniftytrading
FASP levels for Bank Nifty 16/05/2023The FASP for BankNifty is listed for 16-05-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 15 MAY 2023We are near all time high on NSE:BANKNIFTY - 44151.7 is today's high. The previous high was 44151.8 on 14 Dec 2022. The lowest point was 38613.15 ~ -12.45% on 16 Mar 2023. Numbers are magically adding up, 3 months from High to Low and then exactly 2 months to reclaim the top spot.
From the chart you can notice that once we broke the bearish trend line, the rally came fast & furious. i.e from 11th Apr to 15th May we rallied 3116 pts ~ 7.6%. For traders who monitor the break-out rally - they would have followed this trend.
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Daily Analysis
Today's price action was rather surprising, BJP the ruling party in Karnataka was toppled by Congress with a good majority. News like this should be negative - yet our markets were rallying - incredible bulls.
I am not at all interested in politics, but today's move in NSE:NIFTY , NSE:CNXIT and FinNifty shows 2024 Lok Sabha elections might be won by Congress itself.
From a price action perspective we had a steady up day, there was only 1 minor pull back between 14.15 to 14.25 but that too got bought into. Volumes were also aiding long bias.
The credit spread that were getting written in the last 30 to 45 mts were really crazy. Positioning wise more people are favoring further upside as interpreted from the OI data. Tomorrow's Finnifty expiry might be interesting as most of the traders are already euphoric, the premiums may spike unusually tomorrow.
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15 mts TF shows the bullish bias quite clearly today. Since we are the top already, there is no more technical analysis that can be done from a resistance perspective.
The nearest support 43253 is 800 points below, so NSE:BANKNIFTY is quite in a sweet spot.
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1hr has made consecutive higher-highs after breaking out from the range. Again we are the top most level and I am quite scared to make any further direction guess. It will be lot better to react to the market once it has decided where it wants to go.
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NSE:NIFTY even though was looking more positive than bank nifty till 13.15, was not able to breakthrough the resistance of 18419. On the hourly candle Nifty made consecutive 5 candles, the 5th candle had closed right above this SR level.
But the 14.15 candle gave away those gains -0.34%. I think it is not a bad idea to shift to Nifty50 trading for 2 weeks as we have strong support & resistance level marked. I prefer to trade in a range than trade breakouts & breakdowns.
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FASP levels for Bank Nifty 15/05/2023The FASP for BankNifty is listed for 15-05-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 11 MAY 2023 expiryWeekly Expiry Analysis
From the 4th of May till 11th, NSE:BANKNIFTY has fallen 0.3% ~ 131pts. Headline does not really indicate what went behind.
We fell 1028pts in 1 single day i.e. 5th and then scaled back 870pts in the remaining 4 days. How can I not credit the bulls? You might be bored with me praising the bulls everytime - sadly that is the reality. The bears are really unable to move the needle, this week I seriously thought we will take out the 42576 session - but that did not happen!
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Today's Analysis
Would you believe the gap-up open of 43535 today? We hit the same level as of 04 May on which NSE:BANKNIFTY had made an interim top. Needless to say the 5th May selling on HDFC-HDFCBK news took out some gains, but we have bounced back quite strongly.
That gapup stands as an anomaly, otherwise the price action is perfect, showing a higher-high formation. And then we had a flattish session afterwards.
From an expiry standpoint we did not have big movements (unusual), but we had 2 or 3 intense volatility surges even with a flattish movement (again unusual). The IV surge helped the options premium spike 2 or 3 times giving excellent opportunity to traders today.
Example 42000 PE which was OTM by 1500pts ~ 3.4% away from strike had 2 swings. 1st one from 09.30 to 10.30 where its premium surged 99% and then 13.10 to 13.48 where it surged 67%. Did the market make any abrupt move during that time - absolutely not.
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15mts are still having a minor bullish tone, but it will quickly fade out if new highs are not made. Are the bulls tired after a long run - seems like that. Nearest support is still 43253.
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1hr is more bullish than 15mts TF thats because the trailing price action shows strong upwards momentum. It also has a vulnerability to form a double top at 43750 levels - but for that we need some bad news. The only bad news we can expect in May is the Karnataka elections results!
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 10 MAY 2023
Few things went as planned (till 10AM) and after that I was like the deer stuck in the headlights. No way I could believe the rally of 560pts ~ 1.31% from 10.05 to 15.20.
I was having the short-sell bias ever since the bad news broke about MSCI on HDFC- NSE:HDFCBANK . So I was kind of happy we had the fall of 553pts in 45mts. I started drawing leg1 of the down rally till 10.55. And seriously hoped we will have a 2nd leg also that will take out the 42576 support today.
Surprisingly the reverse happened, we gained back all the points lost and the momentum showed bullish intent from 14.55. Even the steadiness showed by NSE:BANKNIFTY in climbing back the 560pts was commendable. The bulls in India are real tough it seems. We took out 2 resistances 43012 & 43253 from the intraday low.
US released its CPI inflation data which is inline with the expectation set. Whether FED pauses further rate hikes is a question in itself.
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On the 15mts TF banknifty is trading with a minor positive bias now, the slope of the moving average is a good indicator for this. It seems like the bulls have ignored the blip of 5th May.
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1hr has formed a W shaped pattern (but its not an perfect double bottom). In fact today's 6 green candles gave the change in sentiment. Otherwise we would have seen an M pattern (double top).
Today's closing in US markets will have a deep impact on our expiry tomorrow. As it stands SPX is trading with gains of 0.15%. If we have a 1% or more fall today, it could even reverse the sentiment on banknifty tomorrow.
Banknifty daily analysis for 09/05/23Indian market followed the global markets and has given a nice upside move after a 1000 points loss, Banknifty has given a 600 points recovery forming an inside candle on the daily time frame.
Though, the market looks bullish, still banknifty is trading in a resistance zone and the previous fake out if strong will also act as a resistance.
Markets opened gap up and moved in the direction gaining around 500 points in first trading hour. The market took resistance and consolidated in narrow range of 100 points in the second half.
On hourly time frame, the market has crossed the 20 ema in a "v" shape form.
Either side moment can be there once a break out/down is there.
Support :- 43200-20, 43000
Resistance :- 43400, 43580
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the markets.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 04 May 2023 - expiryWeekly Analysis
NSE:BANKNIFTY has gone up by 1.58% ~ 678pts from last Thursday to today. It has taken out 2 crucial resistance points in the process and nearing the ATH now.
Really impressive performance - the banks in India are standing out with their outperformance. Global financial institutions are melting down and many US banks are trading less than 50 to 60% below their ATHs
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Today's Analysis
Banknifty opened inline today and had a parabolic upside move, something that we usually see during range breakouts. At present banknifty is not in a range, so the price action could even be due to short covering.
Of the 0.86% gained today, 0.71% aggressive move came between 14.15 to 15.10 - once the HDFC declared its results. Since today was an expiry day, the last 1 hr move would have shocked many.
43500 CE option chart would have amazed many by a 530% upmove between 14.15 to close. When the VIX is low, volatility is at its lowest point - the option buyer gets a rag-to-riches kind of story like this every week.
The same spike was available on 18200 CE Nifty50. I was not really interested in fishing for these opportunities even though the risk:reward looked interesting. Mainly because I prefer to sell the options first rather than buy.
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15mts TF is showing today's move quite prominently. Once it took out the swing high of 02 May there was no stopping. Most of the option traders would be frustrated as the moves are coming only in the last 1 hr - this would spoil their trading plans.
Also during low volatility & low option premium periods - positional trading gives far more returns than intraday.
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1hr TF shows the new higher-high that got formed. In yesterday's report we discussed the possibility of the same happening. What is more surprising is how it happened today even after FED raised interest rates to 5.25% & SP:SPX tanked 0.7% overnight.
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NSE:NIFTY has also created a higher-high and closed above 17976 conclusively. The next resistance is at 18419
#BANKNIFTY - 04/05/23 MARKET VIEWIn the past two days, Banknifty has demonstrated a notable weakness in its performance, signaling a potential downturn in the coming days. Today's key reversal is expected to take place within the range of 43450-43550, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment.
Given this forecast, traders may want to consider taking a short position on Banknifty Futures or buying month-end Banknifty 44000PE at the aforementioned levels. However, to mitigate risks, traders must set a strict stoploss at 43600, ensuring that any potential losses are contained.
With a target range of 43200, 42900, and 42500, traders can leverage this opportunity to potentially reap significant profits, while also accounting for market volatility and uncertainty. By keeping a watchful eye on market trends and maintaining a calculated approach, traders can maximize their chances of success in this dynamic and competitive industry.