22 May 2024 - BankNifty stance revised to neutral, not bullishThe trades on banknifty were going on perfectly till 14.30. The final hour took out all the profits from the intraday straddles, not just that the algos ended the day in RED. The moves that came in the 2 16mts candles 14.51 and 15.07 were not normal.
Yes, we have seen even wilder moves from BN earlier, but today was just stop loss hunting by the HFTs - how else would you explain a 500pts swing in 32mts??
We are not bearish as 47465 support was held, and the reason we are not bullish is that 48115 resistance was not taken out. Between these 2 levels, we would like to maintain a neutral stance.
Also decided against running nifty50 algos on Thursdays as the stakes are too high. It is better to sit the day out than risk my capital, effort, and time for the manipulative games by the HFTs.
Bankniftytrading
#BankNifty directions and levels for May 22nd.BankNifty is forming a gramophone structure, which is a consolidation pattern. We can expect a rally only if it breaks the immediate resistance at 48,195 with minor consolidation. If this happens, the next target should be a minimum of 48,360, up to the 50% Fibonacci level.
Alternatively, if the market rejects around 48,195 or if there are sharp declines initially, we can expect a correction to a minimum of the 38% Fibonacci level.
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(22/05/2024) Today will be gap up opening in BANKNIFTY. After opening if banknifty sustain above 48050 level then possible upside rally of 400-500 points upto 48450 level & this rally can extend another 400 points if market gives breakout 48550 level in todays session. Any Major downside only expected in case banknifty starts trading below 47950 level. also possible reversal downside 48450 level.
21 May 2024 - BankNifty has a candle below Banknifty had a more flattish tone today compared to Nifty. The hesitance to get past the 48115 resistance was clearly visible. Even though Nifty closed the day flat, BN gave up some points ~ 151, -0.31%.
We wish to start the 22nd with a bullish view but switch back to neutral if the 48115 resistance is not getting taken out.
Since 22nd is the expiry day, the actual moves may not be conclusive. Will wait for the 3pm move to guess the direction with a higher confidence level
Banknifty prediction for tomorrow Expiry 22 MayAs we discussed, Banknifty was sideways today.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading at 200 EMA, breaking off, which might lead to a double top neck break to the downside. The market is making a rising wedge pattern after a huge fall, which might be a preparation for next fall to the downside if it beaks to the downside. Important support levels will be 47800, 47387, and 47000. on the other hand, 48231, 48445, and 48587 are going to provide a good price action resistance.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.73, which has fallen from 0.98, which shows huge CE writing on the upper side, indicating a bearish structure in the market. 48000 is maxPain. On the higher side, there is a huge amount of resistance at each level. However, on the lower side, PE writing is less effective, which indicates that the market might fall in the upcoming session.
I am expecting a sideways market inside a rising wedge pattern. If it breaks down, I expect a good bearish move to the 47387 level.
Reason:
RSI is 40-60 shows the market is going to be sideways.
Price < EMA(13,200), which indicates weak bulls.
The market is making a rising wedge pattern. If it breaks to the downside, it's going to give a nice fall.
The market is making double the top if the price breaks the downside of 200 EMA. There is a high probability of market bearishness.
price < VWAP shows weak market structure.
Verdict: Sideways inside rising wedge. if breaks to downside Bearish.
Plan of action:
Sell 48200 CE and 48800 PE (Hedge it with 15/- premium)
17, 18th May - BankNifty is above 48115, bullish tone continuesOn 16th, we bounced from 47465 and that really helped BN to reach upto 48115 on 17th. But it was unable to get past those levels.
Om 18th, BN got past 48115 resistance showing further bullish intent. Our next target would be 48661 and to go neutral we need to break 47465.
Banknifty Prediction for tomorrow 20 May 24As we discussed Banknifty sideways or Bullish; it ended-up sideways with high volatility on upper side.
If we look at the chart:
The market is trading at support (Price action + 200 EMA support) right now. the important levels for tomorrow are 200 EMA, 48000, 47400 will be working as very good support. while 48445, and 49125 will be working as nice resistance.
If we look at OI data:
PCR = 0.98 shows bullish structure. if we notice most of the time today there was only position wind off. 48200 seems to be working as max-pain. while major shpport zone is 48000. on the higher side 48500 is going to provide a heavy resistance.
As market is in breakout phase I am expecting market yet to go higher.
Reasons:
RSI crossing 60 to upside that might be a starting of new bullish trend.
Price > EMA (13, 200), which shows the market can take support at 200 EMA and go bullish.
PCR = 0.98 shows a bullish sign.
Price > VWAP means bulls are getting strength.
The market has already given a breakout it was a good accumulation today; soon, it will shoot to the upside soon. unless there is some political news effect.
Verdict:
Sideways or Bullish
Plan of action:
Sell 48000 PE and 48400CE (Hedge with 20/- Premium)
16 May 2024 - BankNifty goes bullish, strong intraday rallyBankNifty Analysis — Stance Bullish ⬆️
The stance on BN also revised to bullish not because we took out the resistance, but due to the 707pts ~ 1.5% intraday rally that came right from the support level. Usually, powerful moves like this will have extended legs that could start appearing in days to follow.
We only need to know whether the move came out from a news event or not because if it did, then no amount of technical analysis can codify it. BN has also formed a W pattern showing bullishness.
On the 63mts TF, the final candle of the day almost fills the gap between the support and resistance. Hoping to see follow through tomorrow.
The algos were at a loss today, understandably so because of the wild swings we got today.
Banknifty Prediction for tomorrow 17 May 24As we discussed Banknifty sideways or Bullish; it ended-up sideways with high volatility.
If we look at the chart:
The market is trading at resistance (Price action + 200 EMA resistance) right now. the important levels for tomorrow are 47401, 47000 will be working as very good support. while 200 EMA, 47970, and 48332 will be working as nice resistance.
If we look at OI data:
PCR = 0.88 shows bullish structure. if we notice today after 11 AM they is a very heavy CE winding up in the market. 48000 CE was removed approx 33% that shows big players are winding up CE positions in heavy quantity. which might push the market to upside.
FII and DII not yet available.
I nam expecting market to go Higher in uppcoming sessions.
Reasons:
RSI crossing 60 to upside that might be a starting of new bullish trend.
Price > EMA (13) but less than 200 EMA(resistance), which shows the market still has to break 200 EMA to go bullish.
PCR = 0.88 shows a bullish sign.
Price > VWAP means bulls are getting strength.
The market has already given a breakout it was a good accumulation today; soon, it will shoot to the upside.
Verdict:
Sideways or Bullish
Plan of action:
Sell 48000 CE and 47600 PE (Hedge with 20/- Premium)
15 May 2024 - Banknifty in neutral territory, break 47465 for 🐻BankNifty Analysis — Stance Neutral ➡️
BN ended the day with cuts of -172pts ~ -0.36%. We went neutral after the price action on 13th May. After that, we had one up day (14th) and a down day (15th) — the result, we are back in the neutral territory.
BN did not even go to the 48115 levels which came as a surprise. Ideally, on 16th there may be an attempt to take out 48115 resistance, only then the Bulls can exert their dominance. If it stays like this, we get another lower low formation and it would mean the Bears will come back much stronger. Only if 47465 is broken, we will change our stance from neutral to bearish.
The algos made a super profit of 45596 INR today.
BANKNIFTY prediction for tomorrow 16 May 2024Banknifty has been Bearish for the last two weeks. Now, Bank Nifty is in the support zone.
If we look at the chart now:
Banknifty has successfully broken the bearish trend to the upside. It gave a nice V-shape recovery. But big players have not accumulated the quantity, and that's why there was huge volatility yesterday. The market has taken support at Fib 0.38 of the current minor trend. It is in range bound 47578-47935. if it breaks 47935 to the upside, the market can form a higher high till 48432.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.86, which shows that next week's market is bullish. That's why big players are accumulating the quantity at lower levels.
There is only a significant level of resistance at 48000—other than that, all levels have very normal CE and PE writing.
I am expecting the market to go bullish for next week's expiry and sideways for tomorrow's session :
Reasons:
RSI is 40-60 shows the market is going to be sideways.
Price ~= EMA (13) but less than 200 EMA, which shows the market still has to break 200 EMA to go bullish.
PCR = 0.86 shows a bullish sign for tomorrow. But as it is the 1st day of the expiry session, it will not make much difference.
The market taking support from the Lower channel of Vwap means bulls are getting strength.
The market has already given a breakout after little accumulation; soon, it will shoot to the upside.
Market has been providing good volume at buying candles shows upcoming bullish market structure.
Verdict:
Sideways or Bullish
Plan of action:
Sell 48000 CE and Sell 47600 PE (Hedge with 20/- Premium)
#Banknifty directions and levels for May 15th.BankNifty did not experience much of a pullback in the last session, so the previous day’s sentiment will likely continue today as well. If the market rejects around the 38% Fibonacci level, it could retrace a minimum of 38% to 61%. Conversely, if the pullback sustains or breaks the 38% Fibonacci level, the rally will likely continue.
Banknifty Analysis & Prediction in DTFThis is the analysis of Banknifty in Daily Time Frame. Watch carefully. The chart explains itself.
There are some prediction levels. These Levels act as Support and Resistance according to position of price. You have to trade according to level breakout or breakdown.
Always maintain your risk management.
Book your profit according to your “STOMACH”.
Disclaimer:
This is not investment advice. I am not a SEBI Registered Analyst. Anything posted here is my own analysis and views. This is created for educational purposes only. Always consult your Financial Advisor before taking any decision or trade.
Happy trading.
14 May 2024 - BN needs a bit more thrust to go BullishBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️
The definition of a neutral stance was much more suited for BN rather than N50 today. See the short-range in which BN operated today and notice the slow grind. Even then the volatility was very high, take a look at the HDFC Bank price moves today. How does the elephant move like that?
BankNifty may not go bullish even if 48115 resistance level is taken out, it may need a bit more thrust for a change in stance. The reason is because the downfall was quite sharp and before changing the stance, we need to make sure that a higher low is not getting formed.
Algos ended the day with gains of 8064 INR. Ideally, it should have made more as the chart was stable - but the volatility ensured the premiums were skewed causing unplanned losses earlier in the day.
13 May 2024– BankNifty rallies 858pts ~ 1.83% intraday - NEUTRALBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️
Just when we thought the 47465 was getting broken for good, we got a pullback. We fell 527pts ~ 1.11% by 10.39 and then the pull back was a whopping 858pts ~ 1.83%. The final close was almost the midpoint of 48115 and 47465 which prompted me to change the stance to neutral for tomorrow.
The bulk of the heavy lifting came from HDFC Bank in this dramatic reversal by BN. Just when I thought HDFC may break 1425 for another round of collapse - we get a sharp reversal. It rallied an amazing 29pts ~ 2% to change the entire narrative.
On the 63mts TF, BN might try to take out the 48115 resistance tomorrow itself. In case the markets figure out that the reversal was not technical but due to front running, news, or event related - we could see repeat buyers (if news was true) and a sharp fall (if the news was planted and false).
Algos forward test is shown as generating 5764 INR, but the day was in loss today - this must be again due to slippage.
BankNifty Support & Resistance Levels for 13.05.2024BankNifty found support within the first support zone mentioned in the previous post; however, the rebound was not significant, signaling prevailing selling pressure in the market. The immediate support is identified between 47204 and 47345, with a further support zone extending from 46870 to 47015. Additionally, an essential Fibonacci level at 61.8%, situated at 46547 (from the low of 44429 on 25.01.2024), serves as a distant support level. On the resistance front, the closest zone for BankNifty lies between 48051 and 48146, while a more distant resistance zone is observed at 48222 to 48457. Traders are advised to exercise caution and closely monitor these levels amidst the prevailing market conditions.
10 May 2024 — BankNifty has to take out 47465 for super Bearish'BankNifty had a better kind of retracement than Nifty, but it was not able to break away from the 47465 today. More importantly, it was not even able to break down either. That signifies the importance of 47465 as a critical SR level. The behavior from open to 10.07 was quite exactly as we wrote about yesterday. This market is held by weak Bears and they run for cover very fast, unable to persist with their short position.
When we connect the last 2 days of price action, the visual impression shows the continuation of bearishness. On Monday we hope the 47465 level gets broken down for the good.
The next major support comes only at 46284 and if we get there — it would have to come from ICICI, AXIS & SBI as these remain the only 3 major banks that have not mean reverted.
The #Banknifty algos made Rs17120 today. The high implied volatility is helping the option sellers.
Bank Nifty witnessed decline for another session !The Index broke below imp level of 47500
Today BNF showed less correction as compared to Nifty...
Any Long position can be avoided until it sustains above 48200 level
& look for Bearish pattern at imp resistance zone
Upside hurdle is near 48200 zone,
whereas immidiate support is around 47800 /700 level
*For Educational Purpose
09 May 2024 - 47465 is the real laxman rekha, break 2 go full 🐻BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️
The bearish call on the BN was spot on, but we ended the day less bearish than N50, for me that is not good enough. Most importantly, BN did not breach the support of 47465, this was very crucial for the momentum to build.
I am not exactly sure if we will start negatively tomorrow or not, a huge gapup or gapdown may work in our favor, but if BN is opening flat at the SR level - it may even move up a bit. 47465 for me was the critical support that we failed to break.
The price action on a few of the bank stocks looked pretty scary. HDFC Bank -2.37%, IndusInd -2.85%, RBL Bank -3.07%. The only reason we did not fall that much was because ICICI Bank, Kotak, and SBI were holding good at the other end.
The biggest doubt I have these days is Kotak is at multi-year lows, HDFC Bank is almost at the 2020 levels but BankNifty is simply near the ATHs - is ICICI, SBI, and Axis Bank responsible for the stark outperformance???
The stance is still bearish, but the first thing we need to do in the morning session is to take out the 47465 levels failing which we could get a minor pullback or short covering.
Algos ended up generating 8253 INR, not bad despite a trending day.
Banknifty Intraday Prediction Levels for 8 May 2024The chart indicates 15 min time frame. These Levels act as Support and Resistance according to position of price. These are strictly for Intraday Trading only. Execution only after break out and close above the Resistance zone or break down and close below the Support zone.
These levels act as support and resistance. You have to trade according to level breakout or breakdown.
To buy or sell you can follow Buy/Sell Indication given by indicator or you can follow cloud also.
If you are a new trader then just watch (No Trade) these levels for some days.
Happy trading.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI Registered Analyst. Anything posted here is my own analysis and views. This is created for educational purposes only. Always consult with your Financial Advisor before taking any decision or trade.
Banknifty Intraday Prediction Levels for 7 May 2024The chart indicates 15 min time frame. These Levels act as Support and Resistance according to position of price. These are strictly for Intraday Trading only. Execution only after break out and close above the Resistance zone or break down and close below the Support zone.
These levels act as support and resistance. You have to trade according to level breakout or breakdown.
To buy or sell you can follow Buy/Sell Indication given by indicator or you can follow cloud also.
If you are a new trader then just watch (No Trade) these levels for some days.
Happy trading.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI Registered Analyst. Anything posted here is my own analysis and views. This is created for educational purposes only. Always consult with your Financial Advisor before taking any decision or trade.
Bank Nifty has corrected by 1700 points from recent record highsBank Nifty Index has expiry session on wednesday
The index faced pressure from profit booking in PSU Banks
Downside imp support is placed at 48000 & then near 47800 zone
Track for bearish pattern at imp resistane zone
*For Educational Purpose
07 May 2024 - BankNifty stance changed to Bearish, more cuts ???BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️
BankNifty also fell in a single legged manner right from the open till 11.35. The fall totally unchecked by the Bulls and in a way came as a surprise as the BTFD people usually do not let the markets fall in this fast and furious manner.
BN showed more weakness than N50, partly because NiftyIT was in great GREEN shape today. At a specific point, BN was down 1% and NiftyIT was up 0.9% - a stark contrast.
BN ended up breaking the 48661 levels we discussed yesterday and hence we changed the stance from neutral to bearish. The next level to watch out for is 48115 and then the critical support comes at 47465. Since global markets are staying green, the FII selling in our markets could be related to political uncertainty due to the ongoing elections.
BN algos ended the day with gains of 12741 INR. The bulk of the gains started coming in only after 11.39.