03 May 2024 - BankNifty stance also changed to neutral, weaknessBankNifty Analysis — Stance Neutral ➡️
BankNifty had an intraday swing of 952pts ~ 1.92% at par with what Nifty had today. There was a brief period of recovery 11.39 to 12.43, but this did not sustain and we hit an intraday low of 48659 by 13.39.
BankNifty is actually weaker than Nifty, because we did not pull back even a bit yesterday and then you combine today’s price action. But if you look at the charts side by side — Nifty shows a higher bearishness than BN — but it is not.
For Monday, we wish to start with a neutral stance and then go short if 48350 is getting taken out. I might wait out for the ATH to be taken out to go long. The algo made 3901 INR.
Bankniftytrading
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(03/05/2024) Today will be gap up opening in BANKNIFTY. After opening if banknifty sustain above 49050 level then possible upside rally of 400-500 points upto 49450 level & this rally can extend another 400 points if market gives breakout 49550 level in todays session. Any Major downside only expected in case banknifty starts trading below 48950 level.also possible reversal downside 49450 level.
02 May 2024 - BankNifty is not bearish yet, still holding gainsBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish⬆️
BankNifty's pattern is quite interesting, unlike N50, it did not even attempt to recoup the losses in the last hour of the previous session. It is too early to comment if it is bearishness as the charts do not say so. But the way a few banks dropped today was quite worrying. Despite that, BN did not cede ground - quite surprising on how the other banks came to stabilize the index after Kotak took the beating.
On the 63mts TF, BN looks bullish still - but the obvious thing it had to do was to retrace at least 50% of the RED candle @ 14.30 yesterday. The run up so far has been more than expected, so taking a pause or even giving up some gains is not bad at all. We wish to start the day with a bullish tone and then go neutral if 48934 is getting breached.
Algos made only 859 INR today.
30 Apr 2024 - BankNifty's last candle takes out the full dayBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish⬆️
Banknifty does a perfect parabola and it really went by the script. Even though my Algos are non-directional - it has a huge hit rate on expiry days as the ATMs usually go to zero and the risk: reward is quite favorable. Despite having a directional move today, the slow grinding worked out in my favor until the 13.59 candle.
We rallied 474pts ~ 0.96% in 12 minutes and then fell 723pts ~ 1.45% in the last 60. I am quite sure, there is absolutely no way you can capture that kind of move via an algo. If you know someone who made money from this move, let me know - I am ready to be his/her student.
On the 63mts TF, notice the last candle, after hitting a new ATH - the profit booking brought us down below the previous close. The entire day's gain was wiped out in a single candle.
Algos were sailing perfectly till the 13.59 candle, quite happy to have given out only 49233 INR as losses today.
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Banknifty analysis for tomorrow 30 Apr 24As we discussed, Banknifty, if it takes support at 200 EMA, will make a higher high, but we didn't expect that heavy bullishness.
If we look at the chart:
The market is trading in the 4H-TF resistance zone; it has also broken an all-time high. That indicates bulls are very powerful, and today's moment reflects that. The price is very far from the EMAs(50, 200). there is a chance the market might consolidate here for 1 or 2 days.
All important levels have been marked at the chart.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 1.65, which has risen from 0.76. it's a very strong change in OI that shows there is something very big event coming up. 49500 and 50000 are showing significant resistance levels. Other than that, not much of the CE is written on higher levels.
On lower levels, there is heavy PE writing that shows that the Bulls are in full control of the market.
FII and DII data do not give much information today.
I expect the market to consolidate here for 1 or 2 days. After that, we will plan our trade according to the price action.
Verdict: Sideways at Resistance
Plan of action : Wait for the market to make some price action here.
Banknifty Analysis for tomorrow 29 Apr 24As we discussed the live market Banknifty analysis, after that, it showed a huge fall.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading at the 200 EMA, which is likely a very good support point. Also, it gave a nice pullback with good volume in the last 15 min. Also, the market is trading at the 0.23 fib level, which is not likely to provide support after such a sharp fall. I expect the market to give the 0.38 fib retracement.
ALL IMPORTANT LEVELS HAVE BEEN MARKED ON THE CHART.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.82, which has fallen from 0.98, which shows bears are increasing their positions in the market continuously. On the last trading day, there was a huge call writing on upper levels at 48300, 48400, and 48500. on the lower side, 48200 and 48000 are the only PE writing left. If 48000 breaks to the downside, there is not much PE writing on the lower side.
If we look at the FII & DII data, FII and Pro are strong, bearish clients while clients are bullish, which shows that the market is going to open a gap-down.
The market is at a crucial level right now. There are two cases:
Case 1 : If it takes support at 200 EMA, it might come back strong and touch 48600 again.
Case 2: If it breaks to the downside, it's going to test the 0.5 fib level at 47800.
Reasons:
price < EMA(13) shows the market is in a bearish phase. And bears are strong. While the price is taking support at 200, EMA might force the market to take support at this point.
RSI < 50 shows strong bears' power. Bulls are weak at this point. (Bearish)
PCR = 0.82, which has been falling rapidly from 0.98. shows bears are actively increasing their position size. (Bearish)
price < VWAP shows a bearish market structure. (Bearish)
Verdict: Mild Bearish
Plan of action:
Case 1: Sell 48000 PE (Hedge with 15/- PE premium)
Case 2: Sell 48100 CE (Hedge with 15/- CE premium)
25 Apr 2024– BankNifty goes bullish, ATH a swing away 🐂🐂🐂BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️
BN also gets a stance upgrade to bullish, the momentum that was lacking till now came from sources we never knew existed. Kotakbank has a stunning 9.11% weightage on BN index and despite it being 10% down, BN managed to rally 886pts ~ 1.86% intraday today.
BN managed to surpass the 48103 resistance which gave it the bullish tinge. The ATH of 49057 is surely a swing away, but let me take a moment and think rationally - can BN take out that level when Kotak has taken so much of a beating? Was what we saw today another round of short-covering, just because the weak hands who held the shorts were not convinced to push down the prices further?
Looking at the intraday rally, I was sure the algos would get messed up. BN algos went into error @ 10.55 and auto-squared off. At the moment the losses were approx. -12341. I managed to re-activate the same to end the day with losses of -38795, in hindsight not activating again would have been the better choice 😢.
Bank Nifty Analysis for 25-04-2024BankNifty is still trading within the range of 47900 and 48250 for past two days. It is well know here that 48250 is acting as a major resistance. We can expect a bullish move only if BankNifty sustains above 48250. There is no change in the Support & Resistance levels.
If BankNifty sustains above the resistance of 48250 we can expect a upward movement to above resistance levels
Below are the resistance levels to watch
Resistance 1 48550
Resistance 2 49000
If BNF moves downward and breaks the major support at 47900. We can expect a next support at 47700.
Below are the support levels to watch
Support 1 47700
Support 2 46600
Bank Nifty Analysis for 24-04-2024 expiry.BankNifty touched the resistance zone of 48250 and reversed from there. Post which we had a sideways market.
It also to be noted that VIX has crashed nearly 20% for today. We can expect a sudden fall or raise in market due to this crash in upcoming days. Also, this will be good trade setup for option sellers but still the sudden spike n market will affect their setup as well.
Below are the BankNifty levels for 24/4/2024 expiry.
If BankNifty sustains above the resistance of 48250 we can expect a upward movement to above resistance levels
Below are the resistance levels to watch
Resistance 1 48550
Resistance 2 49000
If BNF moves downward and breaks the major support at 47900. We can expect a next support at 47700.
Below are the support levels to watch
Support 1 47700
Support 2 46600
BANKNIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 24 Feb 2024BANKNIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 24 Feb 2024
Bullish-Above 48310
Invalid-Below 48200
T- 48755
Bearish-Below 47890
Invalid-Above 48000
T- 47300
BANKNIFTY has closed almost on a flat note today. It opened with a big gap and was sold into immediately like yesterday. 10 o'clock range was to be used as per setup but index did not break out any side. It traded inside 200 points range majority of the day. Index may test half bat PRZ or 0.58 if it breaks 47890 tomorrow. 47300 can act as an intraday support tomorrow. Above 48090 bulls will try to take charge but 48300 will be bullish trigger.
Coming to Wednesday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 48300 then we will long for the target of 48755.
For selling we need a 15 Min candle close below 47890. T- 47300.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range (5MIN). Trade on this range breakout.
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I am Not SEBI Registered
This is my personal analysis for my personal trading. Kindly consult your financial advisor before taking any actions based on this.
BankNifty is Bearish and big fall is possibleBased on HDFC Bank results on 21 st April if we analyze BN, HDFC Bank and All other BN index bank charts, every bank looks bearish to me !!!!!!! Based on 19th april closing data indicating complete bearishness only in all the banks chart. once the support area is broken we can see big fall in BN. on 22nd April if HDFC is bearish as per Q4 results then my prediction will work.
Bank Nifty Analysis for 22-04-2024BNF is trading near the one hour timeframe support of 46600. As mentioned in my previous analysis, BNF took the support of 46600 zone and reversed. If BNF sustains below 46600 we can expect a further fall till its immediate support.
If BNF moves upward we will have a immediate resistance of 47750.
Below are the resistance levels to watch
Resistance 1 47750
Resistance 2 48250
Resistance 3 49000
If BNF moves downward and breaks the major support at 46600. We can expect a fall till 46000.
Below are the support levels to watch
Support 1 46000
Support 2 46000
19 Apr 2024 BankNifty all 6 candles in GREEN, 1093pts rallyBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️
BankNifty was more dramatic versus N50, it went ahead and rallied 1093pts ~ 2.35% and ended up taking out the crucial resistance of 47465. The momentum favors a stance change to neutral, but I would like to wait for one more day for confirmation.
The lowest point of the day was hit in the opening candle and the highest point in the last candle - so much drama. And never in the rally today there was an attempt to break the upward direction. Unlike N50, hard to believe that it was short covering here - it looks like more of a long build-up.
Again luckily did not switch on the Algos today, or else would have lost approximately 60k. 46284 support level was added today, but BN took support at 46592 levels itself. All 6 candles were in GREEN today - unbelievable momentum.
Banknifty prediction for today 19 APR 24As we discussed, Banknifty has been falling for the last four sessions.
If we look at the charts:
The market is reaching near the support trendline, which is going to provide a potential support zone for Banknifty.
if we look at the OI:
PCR = 0.67 shows the market is in a bearish phase. 47000 is going to provide a good support zone as it has good PE writing and also a logical level of support. On the higher side, above 47500, there is good CE writing at each level.
If we look at the FII & DII data , FII is strong, and bearish clients are bullish, which shows the market is going to open a gap-down.
The market should open a gap down. If the Mmarkettakes support near 46500, then a bullish comeback might be seen in the market
Reasons:
Price < EMAs shows the market is in a bearish phase. And bears are strong.
RSI < 40 shows strong bears' power. (Bearish)
PCR = 0.67, which has been falling rapidly from 1.34. shows bears are actively increasing their position size. (Bearish)
Price < VWAP shows a bearish market structure. (Bearish)
The war situation is also having a negative impact on the market. (Bearish)
Verdict : Bearish
Plan of action : Sell 47000 PE (Hedge with 15/- PE premium)
Bank Nifty formed Big Bearish candle on Daily TF Bank Nifty also witnessed a sharp decline
and tested came near Imp prev swing of level 47050
The major resistance for the index is positioned at 48,000/47800
and if the selling pressure persists,
the index could test its next major support level at 46,500
* For Education Purpose
Practice and Learn price action setups
18 Apr - BankNifty Algos did well as it was not expiry todayBankNifty Analysis — Stance Bearish⬇️
“The power of a strong support/resistance zone will help you in your technical analysis” — Anonymous.
See what happened today, BN started strong and was keeping its head above the 47465 support for a long time. Between 10.19 to 10.31, there was an attempt to break this SR, but it failed. BN reclaimed the 47700 levels and was coasting perfectly when the flash crash happened. Between 13.23 to 13.27, BN gave away 557pts ~ 1.17% also ensuring the SR breach.
By 13.39, the breach was confirmed and BN continued its downward moves. A session low of 46982 was hit at 15.15 post which we had a 240+ pts recovery.
The last 4 candles on the 63mts TF are all red and the support of 47465 has yielded. I am yet to mark the next support level, which I will do by tomorrow. I wish to hold on to my bearish view for tomorrow as well.
The Algo on BN was in good shape till the 13.23 impact took away the gains. Ended the day with a loss of 40,724.
Bank Nifty Analysis for 18-04-2024BNF is trading near the 1hr TF support of 474000. Also it to be noted that BNF has fall 1400 points from its ATH. Still BNF is trading near the support zone of 47400 & 47600.
If BNF moves upward we will have a immediate resistance of 47800.
Below are the resistance level to watch
Resistance 1 48100
Resistance 2 48250
If BNF moves downward we can expect a major support at 47000.
There is no major support level but if breaks 47000 zone we can expect a fall till next support of 46600
While checking the chart in 1D TF we could see that its in ascending channel pattern. Probably there shouldn't be much fall but it falls breaking the pattern we can expect the fall till 46600 zone.
15 Apr - BN 47465 has to be taken out for strong bearishness⬇️BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️
BN had a unique price action today, unlike N50 we did not see a bounce from the banks. And the lows made during the closing hours were much deeper than the opening lows. Whereas Nifty's opening low was not violated that much. Ideally, that is expected, the subsectors would fall further than the main index.
I am revising the stance on BankNifty to bearish not because of technical reasons - but due to Nifty50's bearishness + worsening global macro. Ideally, BN will have to take out 47465 to go bearish, which I suppose may be done within the opening hours of tomorrow.
Bank NIFTY trading at support
Bank Nifty is trading at support around 47750 zone.
Considering the trading holiday on Wednesday 17/04/2024. BNF expiry will be tomorrow.
BNF is now in a support zone of 47750 if broken we can expect a fall till the below two support zones
Support 1 47750
Support 2 47400
If BNF moved in a uptrend, considering the globe cues take the trades cautiously as we can see more OI in call side. Resistance for uptrend
Resistance 1 48100
Resistance 2 48250
Banknifty ananlysis for tomorrow 15 Apr 24As we discussed, Banknifty's structure opened a gap down and fell.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is making Hammers at the top. Now, the market is in a very crucial position.
It is trading at the support trendline and support zone. The market is making a rising wedge pattern. If the market breaks the pattern to the downside, it will be a good entry for the bearish position.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.7, which shows neutral market sentiments. However, in the past three days, OI activity PCR has been falling gradually from 1.34 -> 1.18 -> 0.7. which shows bears are increasing their position in the market very actively. 48500 is Max-Pain. If this level breaks, there is no support point till 48000. on the upper side, there is resistance at each level (48500-49000).
The bulls are very weak at this point.
All important levels are marked at the chart.
If we look at the FII and DII activity, the Pros are strong and bearish, and clients are bullish. This indicates the market is going to open a gap-down (probably near 200-EMA 15m-TF).
There are 2 cases right now.
Case 1: inside the channel Sideways. (Low probability)
Case 2 : If it breaks to the downside, it is bearish. (High probability)
Reasons:
EMA(200) < Price < EMA(13), which indicates Weak bulls structure in the market. (Bearish)
RSI < 40 shows strong bears' power. (Bearish)
PCR = 0.7, which has been falling rapidly from 1.34. shows bears are actively increasing their position size. (Bearish)
Price < VWAP shows a bearish market structure. (Bearish)
Verdict:
Neutral unless the market breaks the trendline and support zone to the downside.
Plan of Action : wait for an initial 10 minutes. If it breaks to the downside, GO BEARISH.
12 Apr - BankNifty was not that bearish, but a HH is formed.BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️️
BankNifty did not fall as much as Nifty50 today, we opened -244pts as gap-down, and the first candle itself was a strong green candle which gave the impression that the Bears may lose control.
The follow-up action was good enough and we retested the swing low by 09.47 giving some hope, but again the markets started recovering till 12.11. I was posting in our trader's chat group that if we stay like this the short covering will come in and we may end up going up and that is exactly when the 2nd round of selling came in. In the second leg, we lost another 311 points ~ 0.64%.
On the 63mts TF, BankNifty ended up creating the higher high. To know if the bullish trend is at threat or not - we should take out the support of 47465 soon, but that is around 1000pts away. We would like to start Monday with a neutral stance and then take it up from there.
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BankNifty Algo trades ended with a gain of Rs7735. Prematurely exited at 09.44 sensing the markets were beginning to crack.