10 Jan ’24 — Banks did not have the bull-punch today despite N50BankNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis
Between the last expiry and today, BN fell 383pts and most importantly breached a support level (47539). Even though the start of the week was good, the bulls gave away the control to the bears by Friday.
16mts chart link
BankNifty Today Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️
Unlike Nifty50, BankNifty did not have a strong pullback today. There was no wedge like formation, but the negativity was missing totally. The open was gap-down from which BN recovered decently and then remained range bound. BN was trading in green for most of the time today.
4mts chart link
BN is not out of the bearish hold yet. The first thing that has to be taken care of is the 47539 resistance and the best way to take that out is via a gap up. It has become quite predictable these days, the way to go past a level is via a gap-up or gap-down. Neither the bulls nor the bears have the nerve to battle it out during the trading day.
63mts chart link
Our stance remains bearish even for tomorrow. Will switch to neutral if we have a 63mts candle above the resistance level marked in blue. Even though we have the Nifty50 expiry tomorrow, the options premiums are looking pretty dead. Hoping BN strikes will have some juice for tomorrow.
Banks
09 Jan ’24 — BankNifty made the BEARS🐻 proud today ! BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️
BankNifty was more sensible today. Firstly the gap-up was not so huge to scare away the bears - so they hung around. Secondly, there was no breakaway momentum, by 11.07 things were getting pretty clear that the upmove ran out of steam.
4mts chart link
And when the selling came, it was ferocious. Bears also had to make sure the support level of 47539 had to be taken out with style. The RED candles near that price zone are ample proof of that. The fall was over 782pts ~ 1.63% which took BN into RED. Nifty on the other hand stayed in green thanks to NiftyIT, LT, and ADANI group.
63mts chart link
Since we have the BN expiry tomorrow, it may be a treat to watch how the strike price premiums could surge. India VIX was not favoring the bears today, if we have a strong price action in the forenoon the IV is bound to add to the momentum. Our stance of bearishness continues with the first target of 46931 followed by 46574.
08 Jan ’24 — BankNifty breaks the 47539 support - stance bearishBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️
The chart of BankNifty was more dramatic and powerful. The total swing range was 765pts ~ 1.59%. The support of 47539 was broken only at 14.31 and there was not much time left for the next leg of fall today.
4mts chart link
What BankNifty and Nifty have done in January was to take out the stop loss twice. Last week we saw some strong fight back and they managed to get the stance changed from bearish to neutral. And today the tables have turned and the chart looks bearish. BankNifty has walked ahead of Nifty because it has already broken the ascending channel - so the break of support today should give it some more thrust.
63mts chart link
The support is only broken on the lower TF, we ran out of time for further action today. This means that the forenoon session will be quite critical tomorrow. If the bears can hold the banks below the 47539 levels - we could see some action picking up. The options flow also indicated an immense short buildup for the CALLS - which may be indicating tiredness in the uptrend. Our stance for tomorrow is bearish.
05 Jan ’24 — BankNifty gets a sharp reversal at 14.19 & pulls UPBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️
BankNifty opened inline and was looking quite decent till 10.07. The fall that came after that took out 559pts ~ 1.16%. Not quite sure what triggered that fall. Due to this, the impact was felt even on Nifty50. NiftyIT was roaring green at one end and then BankNifty underperforming at the other.
4mts chart link
Remember, we changed our stance from bearish to neutral yesterday and this fall started creating conflicting thoughts in our mind. What if the price action we had yesterday was a blip? But we got the right answers between 14.15 to 14.31 when Nifty50 managed to pull back. This also lifted BankNifty to ensure a flat closing for today.
63mts chart link
The neutral stance continues. On the downside, we have protection at 47539, and on the upside, the channel bottom line will prove as a minor resistance. As long as BN stays between these two, we will be glad to look out for non-directional option strategies.
01 Jan ’24 — Banks not happy with a "Happy New Year 2024"We have compiled the last 3 months of work into an Amazon Kindle ebook with the title “60 Post-Mortems on Nifty & BankNifty Q3 FY23-24” - request you to take a look and provide suggestions.
BankNifty Analysis - Stance changed to Neutral
BankNifty was not able to break away from the lower channel line. Normally BN swings from the lower boundary to the upper boundary and follows a good correlation with the ascending channel. The last 30mts of fall ensured we broke the lower trend line. Ideally, the stance had to change to bearish - but we ran out of time for a full 63mts candle to form.
4mts chart link - click here
The fall was 408pts ~ 0.84% deep. The red candle that took out the channel trend line had a drop of 154pts. Both BankNifty and FinNifty were looking quite weak today - not sure of the reasons though. When NiftyIT turned and went into strong green - the banks also started lending support to Nifty50. And when the fall came, it was all banks.
63mts chart link - click here
The last candle closed below the channel, but the body is still touching the trend line. Just because of this reason - we decided to go with a neutral stance instead of bearish. The opening hours tomorrow will give us more clues anyway. FinNifty has expiry tomorrow and the stakes will be quite high for the banks to perform.
29 Dec ‘23 - Banks took a break, still a Happy NEW YEAR close.BankNifty Analysis: Stance - Bullish
Banks were appearing pretty lousy today, the fall did not halt at 10.11 today when Nifty50 found its support. BankNifty went further down and got its rejection only at the bottom level of the ascending channel.
4mts chart link - click here
We have never seen an ascending channel that works with so much perfection. Yesterday BN finished on the top line, the gap-down opening tipped the scale in the bear’s favor but was run out at the bottom level. Interestingly only BankNifty took the beating, FinNifty ended the day much better (exact 0.22% loss closing as of N50).
63mts chart link - click here
You can notice how beautifully BankNifty is respecting the channel. As long as we do not break the lower trend line, the bullish case is still intact.
Thank you for staying with me this year. Your readership, comments, and suggestions are always appreciated. Wish you a happy and prosperous NEW YEAR 2024.
21st Dec ’23 - BankNifty leads from the front, stance is NEUTRALBankNifty Analysis
I initially thought the wolf in the sheep’s costume was NiftyIT today spoiling the fun of the Bears. The real culprit was BankNifty - the way it defended its turf today was more than amazing. Even though we had a lower opening, HDFCBANK was staying strong at one end. You know pretty well that HDFCBK alone can drive up/down the index as its weight on the index is manipulatively sizeable.
4mts chart link - click here
Just like a Tug-of-War, HDFCBK was at the rear end acting as the anchor. It bolted itself to the ground and ensured BN was not slipping. Somehow it worked. The first thing BN did was to retest the lower end of the ascending channel i.e. between 10.07 to 10.55. Once it broke out - it retested the same line from a support perspective i.e. b/w 13.55 to 14.11. The 2nd test was rejected which gave it massive momentum to break free (upside). The next stop was right at the top end of the channel i.e. b/w 14.47 to 15.19. You might have to see the encircled portion in the chart to know what I am referring to.
63mts chart link - click here
Can you believe - All the candles today were GREEN. We started at the lower end of the channel and ended at the top boundary stopped only by the bell. Today’s price action almost nullified yesterday’s move and seeing the way BN fought back, I wish to change my stance to neutral for tomorrow. Will go bearish once 47400 gives away and will go bullish if the ATM is taken out. The options premium did not have any excesses today indicating that a big move may not be expected - will update you via TV minds if I see something interesting tomorrow.
HDFC BANK Long Trade.Right Time to Invest in HDFC BANK.
Buying Range : 1615 to 1620
Stop Loss : @1595
Targets : 1650/1680/1725/1775/1840 ++++++
Reasons to Buy:
1: HDFC bank following a channel from past one year, and now again taking support from the channel low i.e. @1615.
So basis idea is that, we will follow the price up to channel high (i.e. @1775-1840).
2: RSI is about to oversold. As observed whenever RSI was found below 35 then the movement was shifted to upside.
3: Good fundamentals
4: Good Risk to Reward ratio.
Thanks
Disclaimer: This idea is only for the Educational purpose. Trade at your own risk.
If you like the idea kindly support.
BANK NIFTY SPOT | MASTER CHART 1DAs We can see Bank NIFTY is currently in short term Down Trend and is at Key Level,
The Chart mentioned above is of 1D timeframe.
I think BANK NIFTY is at very indecisive level where the further moments will be defined.
We can call the current level as BASE POINT or the Break DOWN LEVEL.
Lets See "Jhole mein kya ata hai" :D
- Follow & Boost the Post for Regular Updates
📌📌📌📌📌
Disclaimer -
I am not SEBI Registered Research Analyst or Investment Advisor.
All Information provided above are just for Education purpose only .
They are not buy/Sell Recommendations .
Please consult your financial Advisor before taking any trade or investments.
Bandhan Bank: A Promising Future of PotentialHello fellow traders, I hope you're all doing well. As you may have noticed, the market has recently become more volatile and uncertain. In light of this, I'd like to share an analysis of a potential future growth stock with you.
>>Bandhan Bank has been experiencing a correction in its stock price since it first got listed in the market. Now, if we take a look at its performance on a weekly chart, we can see that it has been trading within a descending rectangle pattern for the past three years. During this time, it has been closely following its support and resistance levels.
>>Currently, it has once again tested its resistance level. If it successfully breaks through this level with strong momentum, it could be an excellent opportunity to start a position for potential significant growth in the future.
>>The bank has been expanding aggressively, opening branches in various cities. Moreover, it's offering attractive financial solutions compared to its competitors. Notably, the promoter's holding in the bank is stable, and interestingly, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) are actively increasing their holdings, which is a positive sign.
Do consider pressing the boost button🚀🚀, It helps me bring more interesting analysis. And if you've any question and suggestion please feel free to post in comment section.
Note: This is for informational purposes only. Do your own research before investing.
22 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty - Target 1 - 44451BankNifty Analysis
BankNifty was trying to recover from the fall yesterday and it got lucky with 2 news events. Firstly JP Morgan announced its adding India to its Emerging markets bond index - source. Catch the discussion in Trading QNA.
Secondly the news broke out that Govt’s commentary that I-CRR withdrawal will give ample liquidity with the banks - source
Both the news gave some thrust to Banknifty and thereby Nifty in the forenoon session and helped it avoid a big fall (according to me). BN rallied exactly 1% from the lows hit at 10.00 to a comfortable position by 12.05.
Both the news logically does not make sense for the bank nifty to rally. India’s bond markets meaning GOI bonds are serviced by RBI and the banks may choose to serve its debt - but not directly. Secondly the I-CRR withdrawal news was made on 1st Sep and the ATH hit by Nifty50 was due to this (Please refer to the post-mortems from 01 Sep to 15 Sep for more details).
My targets for BankNifty did not work out today, but I am still continuing the bearish stance for Monday. The first target being 44451 and the second - 44219. In case BankNifty is not breaking the current low in the opening 2 hours - I would prefer to change my stance to neutral.
Central Bank of India Looks Promising for 20% gain.Happy Independence day Guys. Today we are going to understand the technical of Central Bank of India in a very easy to understand language.
Here are some important pointers about CBI you should know.
1. Important line : As we see in a Larger timeframe there is a very crucial single support and resistance line. For 11 years that line acted as a very strong support where price has retested multiple times.
2. Role Change : Eventually, the price broke down, and this once-supportive line transformed into a resistance. Again the line had been tested by the price multiple times.
3. Bullish Wedge : Over the past 3 years, the stock formed a bullish wedge pattern on the chart.
4. Breaking the Wall: As shown on the chart, the price has broken through the strong resistance line for the first time and started continuing its wedge pattern.
5. 1-Day View : In a 1-day timeframe, it's visible that within the wedge pattern, the stock also formed an another ascending triangle pattern.
6. Triangular breakout : That triangle pattern recently given a breakout too and now it is a trading above that major resistance line.
7. Its financial : Now, discussing the finances, they look quite stable in terms of sales and profits, and NPAs are decreasing consistently. However, we cannot assume that the stock will skyrocket from this point and yield massive growth. Nevertheless, there is still potential for a 20% return, considering technical analysis.
8. Possible entry : Coming back the recent breakout, we might consider entering if the stock can maintain its triangle breakout point. A suitable stop-loss could be set at 29.50, and our initial target could be 38.30.
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Please note I am not SEBI registered. Do your own research before investing.
Breakout alert in CSB bank.>>Stock has been in an uptrend since last year.
>>Over one year, it has been following a special trend line.
>>Since January 2023, it has slightly changed its direction and is now forming a beautiful
symmetrical triangle pattern.
>>Today, it has reached its resistance level and appears promising to break it.
>>If it breaks the trend line, we can initiate positions with a 1:1 risk-reward ratio as explained in the chart.
>>PSU banks were in the limelight today due to their exceptionally good Q1 results.
>>CSB banks also performed well, suggesting a brighter future for this stock.